1. Tanzania JAS: Proposed work program for Joint Analysis /Programming
DPG, June

2. Context
GoT led JAS process has produced key doc on principles, but no immediate prospect of joint analysis/program replacing agency program documents
Many agencies need some form of program document in the near term
=> Need for short analysis/program document, as DP response to Mkukuta/JAS, prepared by end September latest

3. Components of a DIY program doc
Part JAS – existing text
Part 2 Joint country analysis
Part 3 Joint programming document
[Part 4] Optional, agency specific supplement (preferably kept to a minimum)

4. Part 2 - Joint analysis : progress
Collective effort : 12 agencies actively contributed, about 40+ individuals
Outline agreed at DPG wide meetings in April/May
First drafts received on most sections, circulated for drafting team review 31 May
Compiled draft circulated for review to DP working groups and DPG today

5. Joint analysis : general drafting guidelines
Main focus around Mkukuta implementation, especially:
Strengthening national systems, domestic accountability for results
Translating Mkukuta growth focus into practice
Build on Mkukuta text, draw on existing agreed texts as much as possible
Keep it short : max 15 pages total

6. Joint analysis : next steps
Review by DPG working groups (sections for WGs proposed – but all comments welcome)
Deadline for comments 16 June
Review in July DPG meeting
Joint analysis text then folded into combined analysis program document, final draft to DPG meeting September

7. Part 3 -Joint program doc : outline
Intro, review of lessons learnt
Managing external financing – mapping out relation of JAS and annual planning and budget process
Joint programming – summary of key issues from MTEF responses on Mkukuta financing, consistency with JAS + annex tables
Monitoring
Risk analysis : identification, mitigation, scenarios/response

8. Total External financing , % GDP, 99/06

9. Total External Financing, % GDP, actual 99/06 + MTEF projection 07/09

10. Total External Financing, actual + projections

11. MTEF external financing projections
DP projections on external financing needed annually as input to MTEF preparation - weaknesses in existing projections highlighted by Government in recent PEFAR consultations
At 40%+ budget, comprehensive realistic projections of external financing are a prerequisite of sound fiscal management – would be needed regardless of JAS, joint program doc, etc.

12. MTEF projections (continued)
GoT looking for realistic estimates of projected disbursements for: budget support, sector aid, projects, TA, local financing by LGA, non state + projections on JAS implementation
New projections by late July can inform preparation for next cycle and provide basis for Joint Program doc
Following PEFAR consultations, MTEF template under discussion with GoT , to be distributed to DPG next week

13. Tanzania Joint Program document
timelines

14. Tanzania Joint Program Doc
milestones

15. Joint programming challenges : issues for a workshop
One day workshop mid July :
Cross compare draft MTEF responses, informal feedback
Identify shared programming issues eg.
financing gaps/mismatch with Mkukuta priorities,
scaling up
financing core reforms
expected fit with JAS principles
………….

16. Dialogue with GoT
Close coordination with other JAS processes, JAS implementation working group, DoL, etc
Dialogue on MTEF template and analysis (PER macro group)
GoT interest in joint workshop, prior to dialogue on full draft

17. Areas of work MTEF template/analysis Review of lessons learnt
Risk analysis
M&E
Coordination, Editing

18. Issues for DPG
Support for MTEF exercise from all DPs as DPG response to GoT call for better planning
Comments/guidance on proposed work program for joint analysis/program doc
Workshop : timing, scope, participation
Timetable for final draft
Volunteers to maintain inclusive DPG wide engagement
Wider stakeholder engagement