1. The NOAA Climate Program: Research and Climate Services
Chet Koblinsky
Director of the NOAA Climate Program, and
Acting Director of the Office of Global Programs
Climate Prediction Assessments and
Services Workshop, March 9-11,
Florida State University,
Tallahassee, Florida
6/2/2018

2. NOAA Climate Program
Ten years ago NOAA’s climate services were primarily focused on the dissemination of coarsely resolved national seasonal forecasts.
Over the last ten years NOAA has, in close collaboration with decision-makers, conducted research that has enhanced the relevance, value, and accuracy of its data and forecasting tools.
Where should NOAA be in years in regard to climate services for climate variability, climate change?
Need to develop a vision and roadmap for the future.
6/2/2018

3. NOAA Climate Program
The current program stems from NOAA’s commitment to develop a cohesive system that links research, operational climate services, and decision-makers needs.
6/2/2018

4. NOAA Climate Program Vision
NOAA’ s MISSION
To understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet our Nation’s economic, social, and environmental needs.
BENEFITS TO THE NATION
Consistent with its results-oriented approach to strategic planning, NOAA is committed to maximizing the benefits of its products and services to our Nation’s:
•Environment •Public Safety •Economy
6/2/2018

5. NOAA Climate Program Mission Goal 2 - Climate
Climate is one of the four strategic themes within NOAA.
“Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond”
Climate Services (NAS): The timely production and delivery of useful climate data, information, and knowledge to decision makers.
Anticipated Outcomes (Build an end-to-end system)
Increased use and effectiveness of observations and climate information – show the benefit of the observations, provide feedback on what works, what doesn’t work, and what needs to be changed and how.
6/2/2018

6. NOAA Climate Program Research to Delivery
Information
Gathering and
Dissemination
Research
Operations/
Decision-makers
NOAA Climate
Transition
Program
6/2/2018

7. NOAA Climate Program Organizational Ideas
Climate Board
Matrix Link
Interagency Climate
Office
External Advisory
Groups
NOAA Climate
Program Office
NMFS
RISAs, IRI,
Extension
NWS
NCEP
CSD
Regions
OGP,
COSP
Sea Grant
CDC,
GFDL
OAR
NOS
CSC, OCRM,
CWISE
NESDIS
RCCs CWISE
NGDC
NCDC
NODC
CPC
OCWWS
Regional
Manager
WFOs/
RFCs
EMC
6/2/2018

8. NOAA Climate Program Elements
1. Climate Observations and Analysis (T. Karl - NESDIS) 50%
Observations
Data Stewardship
Understanding Climate Variability and Change
2. Climate Forcing (D. Albritton - OAR) 20%
Global Carbon Cycle
Atmospheric Composition
3. Climate Predictions and Projections (A. Leetmaa - OAR) 25%
Climate Prediction
Climate Change Projections
Reducing Model Uncertainty
4. Climate and Ecosystems (N. Cyr - NMFS) 1%
5: Regional Decision Support (R. Livezey NWS, C. Nierenberg - OAR) 4%
6/2/2018

9. NOAA Climate Program Goal 5
Regional Decision Support: A mature and efficient system for understanding and responding to stakeholder needs for products and services.
Outcome – Enhance NOAA’s operational decision support tools to provide climate services for national socio-economic benefits
Performance Measure – Provide NWS forecasters scientific training to understand and use NOAA climate forecasts and other climate products, and adapt these products for regional delivery.
6/2/2018

10. NOAA Climate Program Milestones for Goal 5
Exploratory workshops to identify climate sensitive issues at regional scales.
Regional forums to identify research priorities and transfer to operations
Develop prototype methods for application of climate information to practical management
Transition research products to operations
Social science-based studies for context and use of climate information
6/2/2018

11. NOAA Climate Program Examples
Operational wildfire forecasting a federal and state partnership with NOAA.
Climate implications for estuarine rehabilitation, the CALFED example.
NWS partnerships with FEMA to improve disaster management in Montana.
Climate based risk management NOAA-USDA research-extension partnership.
6/2/2018

12. NOAA Climate Program
Where should NOAA be in years in regard to climate services for climate variability, climate change?
6/2/2018

13. BACKUP
6/2/2018

14. PLACE-BASED RESEARCH AND DECISION SUPPORT
Development of
Decision Resources
(across scales & communities)
Increase Response
Options
Expanded
Regional Adaptive
Capacity
Identification of key
Knowledge gaps
Policy Contexts
and
Decision-making
Processes
Scientific Resources
And Knowledge
Problem Identification
And Formulation
Characterizing
&
Communicating
Outcomes
PLACE-BASED RESEARCH AND
DECISION SUPPORT
WATER RESOURCES
ENERGY
AGRICULTURE
HUMAN HEALTH
FISHERIES
TRANSPORTATION
FORESTS
ECOSYSTEMS
COASTAL ZONE
AIR QUALITY
Extreme events
Recreation
Estuarine restoration
Ecosystem sciences
Ecosystems restoration
Endangered species
Mississippi
Great Lakes shipping
(variable water volume)
Extreme events &
infrastructure
public safety (insurance)
Fisheries populations
Production
Health
EPA air quality regulation
Vector borne diseases
Asthma
Energy demand
Conditions for wind
& solar
Risk management
Yield, supply,
price expectation
Trade implications
Wildfire management
Reforestation options
Controlled burning
Flood Control
Water quality
Consumption
6/2/2018