1. The Gatwick Diamond economy and Growth Prospects
Paul Swinney
Centre for Cities
@paul_swinney
Who we are

2. 1. How the Gatwick Diamond Measures up
A word on the comparators

3. The Gatwick Diamond economy is highly productive
Productivity
Gatwick Diamond: £63,600 (2015) £55,800 (2010)
Great Britain: £54,700 (2015) £49,000 (2010)
Thames Valley Berkshire: £71,600 (2015) £62,500 (2010)
Productivity problem – not the GSE, and not GD
Source: ONS, regional GVA; ONS, BRES

4. Residents are highly skilled
Residents by skills level, 2015
Gatwick Diamond: 44.1%
GB: 36.6%
TVB: 45.2%
Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey

5. It has a high number of high-skilled jobs
Jobs by occupation (%), 2015
Gatwick Diamond: 47.9%
Enterprise M3: 49.2%
TVB: 53.5%
GB: 44.5%
Source: ONS, Annual population Survey (workplace)

6. And it has a large share of knowledge-intensive business services
Industrial breakdown, 2016 (%)
Gatwick Diamond: Manufacturing (4.8%), KIBS (21.7%), Other private (51.5%), Public (21.8)
Greater Medway: 7.8%, 12.9%, 52.4%, 28.7%
Thames Valley Berkshire: 5.4%, 24.8%, 50.8%, 19.0
Enterprise M3: 6.8%, 19.8%, 50.5%, 22.9%
SEMLEP: 9.4%, 18.4%, 49.6%, 22.7%
Source: ONS, Business structure database

7. Although the sector grew at a slower pace than in some other areas
Change in knowledge intensive business services (KIBS) jobs
Gatwick Diamond: 21.8% KIBS. Growth of 66 per cent
Great Britain: 17.1% KIBS. Growth of 88 per cent
SEMLEP: 18.3% KIBS. Growth of 121 per cent
Source: ONS, Business structure database

8. The result is that the wages on offer are high
Average weekly wage, 2016
Gatwick Diamond: £572
Enterprise M3: £574
TMB: £645
UK: £525
SEMLEP: £530
G. Medway: £487
Source: ONS, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings

9. 2. The geography of the Gatwick Diamond
Understand the contribution of different parts – place plays an important role

10. Different parts of the Gatwick Diamond play different roles…
Reigate
Epsom
Redhill
Leatherhead
Dorking
Manor Royal
Gatwick Airport
East Grinstead
Centre of Crawley
Horsham
Haywards Heath
Burgess Hill
One third of the jobs in the Gatwick Diamond are located in 2.3 per cent of the land area. Highest concentration of any comparator area.
Manor Royal dominates with about 25,000 jobs (6.6 per cent of all jobs), followed by the area of Gatwick (same share)
Horsham (19,600 jobs – 5 per cent)
Epsom (17,300 jobs – 4.6 per cent)
Reigate (15,000 – 4.0 per cent)
Leatherhead, Burgess Hill, Redhill (about 14,000 jobs each – less than 4 per cent)
In almost all these places, the central area has more jobs than the surroundings (that include business parks)
Source: ONS, Business structure database

11. …as is the case across the comparator areas
Milton Keynes city centre
Aldershot city centre
Reading city centre
Chatham city centre
Also different pools of economic activity
One difference is the role their central urban part plays. In Reading and Milton Keynes the city centre concentrates more jobs
Source: ONS, Business structure database

12. This is particularly the case for knowledge intensive services jobs
Epsom
Reigate
Redhill
Leatherhead
Dorking
Manor Royal
Gatwick Airport
East Grinstead
Centre of Crawley
Horsham
Haywards Heath
Burgess Hill
Majority of jobs in the north of the GD
Manor Royal and Leatherhead both have the largest number of KIBS (6,600 each or 8.5 per cent of total each)
Followed by Epsom, Redhill, Reigate, Horsham (around 4,500 jobs each, 6 per cent of total jobs each)
Smaller spots in Dorking, Haywards Heath, Burgess Hill, East Grinstead
The centre of Crawley has a relatively large number of KIBS (3,900, 5.1 per cent), especially given its very small size
And in almost each towns we see more KIBS in the central area than in the surrounding areas (that cover business parks)
This is because of agglomeration economies…
Source: ONS, Business structure database

13. 3. The residents and workers of the Gatwick Diamond

14. One in three workers comes from outside the Gatwick Diamond…
Origin of Gatwick Diamond workers, 2011
The GD has a strong pull
Roles within the GD too
Source: ONS, Census 2011

15. …but one in three residents works outside the area
Where residents work, 2011
36.8 per cent of residents commute to work outside of the Gatwick Diamond – largest share of all comparator areas
Almost 1 in 4 Gatwick Diamond residents (23 per cent) commute to London (GLA)
6.2 per cent in Westminster alone
Source: ONS, Census 2011

16. This results in a difference in wages between residents and workers…
Residents and workers average weekly wages, 2016
Source: ONS, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings

17. …which has implications for housing
Housing affordability
Housing affordability ratio for a Gatwick Diamond resident working in (2016)…
And at the same time, permitted development rights create more competition for space
Source: HM Land Registry, Price Paid Data; ONS, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (Resident analysis); Census 2011

18. Policy recommendations
Maintain the Gatwick Diamond attractiveness as a place to do business:
Continue to expand the supply of employment space in the areas where it is most needed
Continue to encourage investment in town centres
Widen and deepen the number of skilled workers available:
Continue to expand the housing offer to meet the needs of the workforce
Improve transport connections into and within the Gatwick Diamond

19. Paul Swinney
@Paul_Swinney