1. Commercial Agriculture Development Project Impact Evaluation
CROSS-COUNTRY WORKSHOP FOR IMPACT EVALUATIONS IN AGRICULTURE AND COMMUNITY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT
Addis Ababa, April 13-16, 2009
NIGERIA
Commercial Agriculture Development Project Impact Evaluation
Drs Lucas K. Akapa,
Zakari Lawal & Salisu Garba

2. Title PROJECT COMPONENTS
Agricultural Production and Commercialization:
Technology Demonstration and Adoption
Support to Staple Crop Production System
Market Facilitation
Capacity Building
Rural Infrastructure : Rural roads and energy

3. PRIORITIES FOR LEARNING: INTERVENTIONS
Title
Complementary infrastructure: Roads and energy
Matching grants as a tool to promote technology adoption, variation in grant subsidy
Capacity building of the Commodity Interest Groups
Market information

4. Title EVALUATION QUESTIONS
Effect of the matching grant on take-up rates
Effect of adoption of selected technologies on output, yield and profitability of the selected value chains
Effect of adoption of selected technologies on output, yield of the two staple value chains (Rice and maize)

5. Title EVALUATION QUESTIONS
4. Effect of specific market facilitation activities on sales and profitability of the value chains
5. Effect of access to market information on marketed output and profitability of the value chains
6. Effect of the Project capacity building activities on the output and profitability of their production

6. Title EVALUATION QUESTIONS
7. Effect of provision of road infrastructure on productivity, growth and profitability
8. Effect of provision of electricity/energy on sales, profitability, agricultural productivity and growth of commercial production

7. Title EVALUATION DESIGN
Level 1: Evaluation of the Rural Infrastructure Component
Areas will be selected at baseline to share similar infrastructure characteristics in terms of roads and energy provision.
The intervention will be phased out in different times, so that at each time we can use a group of areas to define the counterfactual for the group of areas in which the intervention is taking place.

8. Title EVALUATION DESIGN
Level 2: Evaluation of the Agriculture Component
(i) Support to staples
ii) Market facilitation
iii) Capacity building and training
We randomize all the possible combinations of the subcomponents by Commodity Interests Groups (CIGs).
The number of CIGs in the population for each value chain is approximately 500.

9. EVALUATION DESIGN
Title
Level 2 (cont.ed):

10. Title EVALUATION DESIGN
Level 3: Evaluation of the Agriculture Component
(iv) Matching grant
Proposals will be ranked according to quality and priority for funding using clearly defined criteria determined ex ante.
Only proposals scoring above a cut-off will receive the grant.
Ranking will vary by value chain, category of farmer class and States. The evaluation strategy will rely on the comparison of treated CIGs/CADAs and control CIGs/CADAs around the cut-off point.

11. Title SAMPLING AND DATA
Use existing baseline survey to review the quality of the information and do preliminary power calculations.
New baseline information which will be complemented by the National Bureau of Statistics, ADPs, Project Desk Officers etc. which will inform us about:
i)Baseline for the expected outcomes
ii) Area characteristics that will be used to identify treatment and comparison areas
iii) Collect background information on farmers characteristics
3 surveys: 1 baseline and 2 follow ups (Midline and Endline)

12. TIMELINE FOR IMPACT EVALUATION
Title

13. IMPACT EVALUATION TEAM: STAFFING
Title

14. BUDGET
Title