1. Census Planning and Management United Nations Statistics Division
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

2. Reference Material for Presentation
Handbook on Census Management for Population and Housing Censuses, United Nations Publication, Sales No. E.00.XVII.15.Rev.1, New York, 2001
Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses, Revision 2 (forthcoming)
Both are available on the United Nations Statistics Division web-site: and on the CD for this workshop
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

3. Overview of Presentation
Census Planning
Quality Assurance
Evaluation
Attributes of a good statistical output
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

4. Census planning – what is it?
Census planning is the core process linking the different phases of the census cycle:
Preparation
Field operations
Processing
Dissemination
Evaluation
Census planning is the most critical process to conducting a successful census
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

5. Census planning (contd).
Aim of the planning process is to ensure that:
Each phase is properly resourced and organized
The output of each phase is of sufficient quality for all subsequent phases
All dependencies between the different phases are identified
Due to long duration of census cycle, planning should not remain static but be dynamic and flexible to take into account changes that occur
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

6. Census planning (contd.)
Each phase of the census cycle is dependent on a preceding phase:
The quality of the output from each phase has a direct effect on the success of the next phase
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

7. Census Planning (contd.)
Issues that require careful consideration when planning a census:
Specifying the role of the census
The role of Government
Setting goals
Developing project plans
Monitoring project
Developing a budget
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

8. Census Planning- The role of the census
Issues to consider
The census should be considered as part of the larger National Statistical Programme
The prime role of a census is usually to provide an accurate count of the total population for each of the administrative regions of a country
The key strength of a census is the ability to provide data for small geographic areas and for small population groups
When data are not required at this level of detail, other statistical methodologies more cost-effective than censuses should be adopted
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

9. Census Planning – The role of Government
To provide:
The legal framework for the census
Funding for the census
Logistical support for the census
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

10. Census Planning – Setting goals
Needs and requirements of stakeholders should be used to establish the census goals, taking into account:
Costs
Data quality considerations
Logistical implications
Need to maintain public cooperation and confidence
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

11. Census Planning – Setting goals (contd.)
Census goals generally revolve around:
(a) Topics on which to collect data
(b) Confidentiality
(c) Timeliness of data release
(d) Data quality
(e) The nature of the output
(g) The total cost of the census
Goals interact with one another. So priorities need to be set as there could be trade-offs, e.g., between what topics can be collected and costs
Once goals are established, they should be communicated to the staff, and appropriate strategies should be devised
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

12. Census Planning – Developing project plans
Once goals have been established and strategies identified to implement them, more detailed planning begins
A census is a large project broken down into a series of related projects that are dependant on one another
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

13. Census Planning – Developing a project plan
To understand the interdependencies, need to develop a framework with a hierarchical structure
Projects (planning, preparation, field operations, etc.)
Phases (Field mapping, training, evaluation, etc.)
Activities (Enumeration area design, map production, etc)
Tasks (Review previous census methods, procedures and outcomes; Prepare enumeration area design manual)
The plan should also include Milestones: Specific points in time at which key outcomes are expected (to measure project’s progress)
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

14. Census Planning – Developing a project plan
Some issues associated with each activity and task that need to be taken into account
Timing
Resources
Risk management
Goals
Planning process involves identification of issues and adopting a consistent approach in listing them
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

15. Census Planning – Risk management
Project plans should also deal with risk management
Risks are all possible events that could occur and have a negative impact on the success of the census
Risks with significant likelihood should be managed explicitly by developing fully detailed plans parallel to the census plan
Risk management is essential because of the importance of the census and the fact that it is an infrequent exercise
The success or failure of the census may depend on the implementation of the plans associated with these risks if they occur
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

16. Census Planning – Monitoring project plans
Developing a good census project plan is important, but not sufficient
The project plan must be monitored closely, and feedback delivered to all levels of management
Results should be reviewed on a regular basis
Most important components to track
Time for completing a task
Resource usage per task
Cost per task
Milestones
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

17. Census Planning – Monitoring project plans
Useful tool for planning and monitoring: the Gantt chart
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

18. Census Planning – Gantt Charts
Each task has name, duration, start, finish and timescale
Horizontal bars represent duration of tasks relative to each other
Dependencies and milestones can be included
Separate Gantt charts can be prepared for each sub-task and all activities to be completed
Provides a visual perspective on work-loads
Automated systems are easy to use and speed up planning process
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

19. Census Planning – Census budget
Census budget must be planned well in advance and cover all known activities
Take into account that the census budget is highly cyclical (peaks during enumeration and processing)
Sufficient resources must be allocated to each phase
Resource needs for the dissemination phase need to be realistically assessed
Funds allocated and used effectively on planning and preparation will result in savings in all other phases, namely in enumeration and processing operations
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

20. Census Planning – Census budget (contd.)
Monitoring the census budget is fundamental
Monitor regularly (quarterly or even monthly) expenditures against funding for each project
Estimates of expenditures for all years of the census cycle should be prepared in advance and reviewed yearly
This would allow to identify on time possible shortfalls, and take appropriate measures
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

21. Census Planning - Administrative report
What is it?
It’s the census “historical memory”: a report where all census experiences are recorded
It is not a detailed description of the process (documentation)
What is the purpose?
To retain as much as possible the skills and knowledge acquired in developing the census, and use them at the time of the next census
Why is needed?
Because after census results are released, most census staff usually move to other duties
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

22. Census Planning – Administrative Report (contd.)
When it should be prepared?
As soon as the decision to take a census is made!  Evaluation and recording should not be left until the end of the census process
How?
The structure of the report could be similar to the structure of the project plan, but it could be modified (group tasks or create sub-tasks when appropriate)
Keep record of resources used (staff years and funds) and of changes to the planned schedule of activities (what changes, and why?)
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

23. Census Planning – Administrative Report (contd.)
How should it used?
To plan subsequent censuses or other large scale statistical activities (i.e.: “lessons learned”)
To create synergies in the current census cycle planning and management tasks
To transfer knowledge and share experiences with other countries
To provide advice and technical assistance to countries that need them (relevant for donors and development partners)
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

24. Quality Assurance
Due to the size and complexity of census operations, it is likely that errors may arise at any stage of the census
To minimize and control errors, it is good practice to devote a part of the budget to quality assurance and control programmes
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

25. About Quality Assurance
The objective of quality assurance is to provide standards and controls so that decisions can be taken quickly to correct or change on-going census operations
There is no single quality assurance system that can be applied to all censuses. They need to be specified for each census and for each stage of the census operations
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

26. What’s Quality Assurance?
Four attributes to quality:
relevance
cost
timeliness
data accuracy
Achieving a quality outcome is essentially about balancing cost, timeliness, accuracy and relevance - relevance usually determined early when topics and output determined
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

27. Measuring Quality
The 3 attributes – cost, timeliness and data quality are inter-linked. Higher quality data can be obtained for higher cost whilst timeliness increases the relevance and utility of data
Deficiencies in quality are usually the results of deficiencies in the process rather than the actions of staff
Key to achieving a quality outcome is to regularly measure the cost, timeliness and accuracy so that the process can be improved - using the Quality Assurance Circle
Quality is relative, and based on what is acceptable, rather than a concept of achieving absolute perfection
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

28. Quality Assurance Circle
Measure Quality
Implement Corrective
Action
Identify Root
Causes of Problem
Identify Most
Important Quality
Problem
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

29. Quality Assurance
People undertaking the process are in a good position to identify problems and suggest improvements
Quality therefore relies on:
established, documented procedures
systems to monitor outcomes
active encouragement by management to involve staff in identifying and resolving quality issues
Managers play a key role in achieving quality:
establish a culture of focusing on quality
giving staff responsibilities to allow them to achieve
ensure staff understand the philosophy of quality
providing the opportunity for staff to contribute
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

30. Quality Control versus Quality Assurance
Quality Control: finding errors and fixing them
relies on ability to find all errors
can add significant cost
fixing errors can itself introduce error
puts the responsibility in the hands of the inspector
Quality Assurance/Continuous Quality Improvement: emphasis on improving the process rather than just fixing the error
recognizes there will be errors in the process
aims to improve the process as it proceeds
gives staff a responsibility in improving the process
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

31. Activities to Assist in Assuring Quality of the Census
Testing the form design
involving the public to learn how they understand the questions being asked
involving stakeholders to ensure the results obtained are as expected, such as the Processing team to ensure the form works with the processing systems, and the subject matter specialists to ensure the questions are being answered as expected
Testing the field operations
How are the procedures implemented, does the training provide staff with sufficient skills, what suggestions do staff have to improve the process
Testing the Processing, Dissemination and Evaluation
do the systems perform as expected, how well do the documented procedures work, how accurate is the data obtained during the test
It is ok for tests to fail - the purpose of testing is to learn and improve
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

32. Quality Improvement and the Census
The quality circle can be applied to the entire census cycle with
Performance in the previous phase being evaluated at any given level of detail
Problems with quality ranked in order of importance
Root causes identified and corrective action implemented
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

33. Quality Circle Dependency Chart
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

34. Evaluation
Evaluation may be considered as the last stage of the census cycle or the first step in the next census cycle
All aspects of the census program should be evaluated (strengths and weaknesses)
Evaluation of the accuracy of the census data should be undertaken through:
comparing the census results with similar data from other sources such as surveys, previous census or analytical methods assessing the quality or degree of accuracy of the data, or the coverage of the population
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

35. Purpose of Evaluation of Data Accuracy
To inform users of the quality of the current census data and to assist in future improvements, through:
Improving processes
Establishing performance benchmarks against which the quality of the data from future censuses can be measured
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

36. Evaluation of Coverage
This aims at estimating the extent to which people have been missed or duplicated
The best way of estimating undercount or over-count is through a post enumeration survey (PES)
Undercount may result from missing out households due to difficult access, people in transit, highly mobile persons, inaccurate mapping, misunderstanding census instructions etc.
Over-count may result from duplication in overlapping E.A’s, long enumeration periods, misinterpretation of coverage instructions etc.
Usually more people are missed than double counted
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

37. Coverage – Post enumeration survey
The PES should be independent from the census, as it provides an independent validation of the census count
The PES must be representative of the whole country and of all population groups and should be conducted as close to the census as possible, without interfering with the census
The census/PES matching greatly benefits from accurate recording of names and addresses during both exercises. Other matching characteristics include age, sex, birthplace and relationships
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

38. Accuracy
Accuracy involves assessing the reliability of the data. Benchmarks can be established for each variable to assess the contributions of non-response, editing and imputation to data quality.
Tables can be created comparing non-response rates between censuses. The tables can show responses before and after processing, edits done, and imputations made, in the compilation of data for each variable. This will show the impact of the processing system on the original responses.
Other data sets (eg. a labour force survey) may give indicative information to benchmark the census on the size of the labour force
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

39. Detailed Analysis
In-depth analysis should include comparisons between censuses and other data from surveys or administrative sources. The surveys need to be based on compatible standards and should be recent
Census data on births and deaths, in most African countries, can only be investigated through indirect methods, as vital registration systems are deficient. These may include study of the age-sex distribution, stable population analysis, etc.
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

40. Attributes of a Good Statistical Output
Relevance
Meeting the needs of users
Value as a level of demand for data
Completeness
Full coverage of the phenomenon
An extension of relevance – meeting user’s needs as completely as possible
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

41. Attributes of a Good Statistical Output (contd.)
Accuracy
Distance between the estimated and the true value
Usually expressed in terms of errors – coverage, sampling, non-response, response, processing and dissemination
Comparability
Across space (countries, regions of a country, districts)
Across time (different time periods)
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

42. Attributes of a Good Statistical Output (contd.)
Coherence
Logical and substantive connection between outputs of different statistical exercises
National Statistical System
Uniformity of classification and other coding schemes
Timeliness
Elapsed time between release of data and the reference period
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

43. Attributes of a Good Statistical Output (contd.)
Punctuality
Degree to which pre-announced release dates are met
Clarity
Degree to which statistics are understandable for non-expert users
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

44. Attributes of a Good Statistical Output (contd.)
Accessibility
Degree to which statistical data can be obtained with ease
Metadata
Availability of information describing sources, definitions, methods
Crucial for enriching the numerical information
Indispensable for assessing comparability
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008

45. Thank you.
Workshop on international standards, contemporary technologies and regional cooperation Noumea, New Caledonia, 4 – 8 February 2008