1. Workshop on Population Projections
The Census Bureau’s Subnational Projections Toolkit

2. Overview
The Census Bureau’s Subnational Projections Toolkit addresses existing needs in making population projections by providing tools that are:
Designed for use in making both cohort-component and non-cohort-component projections
Intended for use at multiple administrative levels
Flexible
User-friendly and documented
The Census Bureau’s Subnational Projections Toolkit
addresses existing needs for subnational and local area
population projections by providing a set of tools that
Are designed for use in making both cohort-component
and non-cohort-component population projections
Suited for use at national and higher administrative
subnational levels (e.g., state, province) as well
as at lower administrative levels (e.g., county,
district, local government area)
Work together in either a bottom-up or a top-down
approach to projection, and
Are user friendly, documented, suited to either
production or classroom use. 2

3. Overview The Census Bureau’s Subnational Projections Toolkit comprises
The Census Bureau’s RUP (Rural-Urban Projections) software for making cohort-component projections
The Census Bureau’s RUPAGG software
The Excel-based RUPEX workbook interface for RUP and RUPAGG
A series of Excel workbooks for specialized projection tasks
The Census Bureau’s Subnational Projections Toolkit comprises
The Census Bureau’s RUP (Rural-Urban Projections) software
for making cohort-component projections
The Census Bureau’s RUPAGG software for preparing
consistent cohort-component projections as the sum of a
series of subarea projections or as the difference between
a national control projection and a subset of subarea
projections
A series of Excel workbooks 3

4. Overview The Excel workbooks are designed for
Preparing consistent base year population, and consistent assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration
Projecting population totals by logistic extrapolation
Ensuring consistency of cohort-component projections at higher and lower geographic levels
The Excel workbooks are designed for
Preparing consistent base year population, and consistent assumptions about
fertility, mortality, and migration
Projecting population totals by logistic extrapolation
Ensuring consistency of cohort-component projections
at higher and lower geographic levels using proportional
adjustment for population, vital events, and international
migrants, and an algorithm to ensure zero net internal
migration in every year, and for every age-sex group,
over the projection horizon. 4

5. Overview
For some countries, data are available for cohort- component projection at relatively low administrative levels.
For other countries, vital statistics are incomplete and migration data may be weak or non-existent, and a combination of projection methods may be warranted.
For some countries, data are available for cohort-component
projection at relatively low administrative levels.
For other countries, vital statistics are incomplete and migration
data may be weak or non-existent, and a combination of
projection methods may be warranted. 5

6. Overview
If preparing subnational projections is defined as a combination of cohort-component projection at national and first administrative levels, but non-cohort-component projection at lower levels, then the progression can be:
Preparation of consistent base year population
Preparation of consistent assumptions about future levels
Subarea cohort-component projection
The combination of subarea projections, final projections
Non-cohort-component projections
Then the Subnational Projections Toolkit provides tools for each of these steps.
If the task of preparing subnational projections is defined as a
combination of cohort-component projection at national
and first administrative levels
but non-cohort-component projection at lower levels,
the overall process may be viewed as a progression from:
Preparation of consistent base year population and consistent assumptions for a
first series of projections, followed by
Subarea cohort-component projection, followed by
The combination of subarea projections ,
or forced consistency with a control projection, followed by
Non-cohort-component projection for lower administrative areas.
Then the Subnational Projections Toolkit provides tools for
each of these steps. 6

7. Overview
Preparation of consistent base year population (and numbers of vital events), for a first series of projections
From data to preliminary subnational area estimates of population by age and sex
The Toolkit provides an Excel workbook to help the analyst
with the first task –
preparing a set of preliminary subnational area estimates of
population by age and sex for the base year.
The CTBL32 workbook, though designed for contingency table
adjustment, can also be used to rake subarea populations
to match estimated values for higher
administrative levels.
CTBL32 7

8. Overview
Preparation of consistent assumptions about future migration and, optionally, consistent assumptions about future fertility and mortality
From data to preliminary subnational area estimates of population by age and sex
Consistent assumptions about future levels
ProjTFR32
Proje032
The Toolkit provides 3 Excel workbooks to help the analyst
with the second task –
preparing consistent assumptions about future fertility, mortality,
and migration.
The ProjTFR32 and Proje032 workbooks facilitate preparation
of fertility and mortality trends for subareas that are consistent
with higher administrative level trends.
The MIGSUB workbook supports the preparation of internal
and international migration for subareas.
CTBL32
MIGSUB 8

9. Overview Preparation of subarea cohort-component projections DAPPS/
From data to preliminary subnational area estimates of population by age and sex
Consistent assumptions about future levels
Subarea cohort-component projections
ProjTFR32
DAPPS/
RUP
Proje032
The Toolkit includes the Census Bureau’s Rural-Urban Projections software
for preparing single-age single-year cohort-component projections –
the third step in the process.
CTBL32
MIGSUB 9

10. Overview
Combination of subarea cohort-component projections by addition, subtraction, or by proportional adjustment to match a control projection
From data to preliminary subnational area estimates of population by age and sex
Consistent assumptions about future levels
Subarea cohort-component projections
Combination of subarea projections, or proportional adjustment to match a control projection
ProjTFR32
RUP
Proje032
The Toolkit includes the Census Bureau’s RUPAGG program and an Excel
workbook for ensuring consistency between subarea
cohort-component projections by addition, subtraction,
or by proportional adjustment to match a control projection.
RUPAGG may be used to ensure consistency in projected
population, births, deaths, migrants, and associated rates
by addition or subtraction.
RUPSubAdj performs the same task using proportional adjustment.
RUPAGG
CTBL32
MIGSUB
RUPSubAdj 10

11. Overview
Preparation of non-cohort-component projections for lower-level subareas consistent with higher-level cohort-component projections
From data to preliminary subnational area estimates of population by age and sex
Consistent assumptions about future levels
Subarea cohort-component projections
Combination of subarea projections, or proportional adjustment to match a control projection
Non-cohort-component projections for lower-level subareas consistent with higher-level cohort-component projections
ProjTFR32
RUP
Proje032
The Toolkit includes 2 Excel workbooks for the fifth task –
preparing non-cohort-component projections for subareas and
ensuring consistency between these projections and
cohort-component projections for higher administrative levels.
SALGST may be used to project subarea population totals using a series
of logistic curves, with resultant populations raked to a control projection.
CTBL32 may be used, to ensure that subarea populations by age and
sex match a national or higher administrative level control population
over the course of the projection horizon.
RUPAGG
CTBL32
MIGSUB
SALGST
RUPSubAdj
CTBL32 11

12. Overview
The Census Bureau’s Subnational Projections Toolkit, including
RUP, RUPAGG, the RUPEX interface,
Excel workbooks,
Method descriptions and the User’s Guide,
can be downloaded at no cost from
During the rest of this session I will
describe and demonstrate elements of the Toolkit.
Your take-away from this overview should be,
First, that the Toolkit includes tools designed for use in making
bottom-up and top-down cohort-component projections
as well as non-cohort-component
population projections, and
Second, that the Toolkit is available to you at no cost from
the Census Bureau’s website 12

13. Tools for Non-Cohort-Component Projection
5/22/2018
Tools for Non-Cohort-Component Projection

14. Non-Cohort-Component Projection Methods and Tools
5/22/2018
Non-Cohort-Component Projection Methods and Tools
Projection of the proportional distribution of total population by subnational area (SALGST).
Iterative proportional fitting or raking age-sex distributions to projected subnational totals and higher-level age-sex distributions (CTBL32)

15. From the Overview
Preparation of non-cohort-component projections for lower-level subareas consistent with higher-level cohort-component projections
From data to preliminary subnational area estimates of population by age and sex
Consistent assumptions about future levels
Subarea cohort-component projections
Combination of subarea projections, or proportional adjustment to match a control projection
Non-cohort-component projections for lower-level subareas consistent with higher-level cohort-component projections
ProjTFR32
RUP
Proje032
In the Overview, we described one of the last steps as:
Non-cohort-component projection for lower administrative areas.
RUPAGG
CTBL32
MIGSUB
SALGST
RUPSubAdj
CTBL32 15

16. Non-Cohort-Component ADM1 Projections by Sex and Age
Preparation of “quick and dirty” non-cohort-component projections for ADM1 subareas consistent with the national cohort-component projections
National cohort-component projection
Non-cohort-component projections for lower-level subareas consistent with higher-level cohort-component projections
DAPPS/
RUP
However, these procedures could be used for “quick and dirty” short-term projections at
higher levels of geography as well. This version is what I will be demonstrating.
SALGST
CTBL32 16

17. Non-Cohort-Component Projection Methods: Totals
5/22/2018
Non-Cohort-Component Projection Methods: Totals
Projected totals by sex
Projected total population by sex and subarea
Toolkit
SALGST
Subarea total population by sex for two dates
In this diagram we see that SALGST is used to combine subarea data from two dates with projections by sex for selected years to get projections by sex and subarea. This may be all that is needed for the geographic level being studied.

18. 5/22/2018
SALGST: SETUP Sheet
The first step in using the SALGST workbook is to describe the inputs you need. This is done on the SETUP sheet. These include: the dates of the two censuses (or other estimates), the number of subareas, the labels of the subareas (e.g., district, state, province, or region), and the desired projection years specified as the starting date, ending date and interval. Pressing the “Set up workbook” button will format the INPUT sheet based on the data entered.

19. 5/22/2018
SALGST: INPUT Sheet
On the SALGST INPUT sheet, we entered the projection for the higher-level in row 7. In section C we enter the names of the subareas and the populations at the two dates. We can also enter the Lower and Upper Asymptotes, either for all subareas, or for each subarea separately. Pressing the “Project” button will project the subarea populations.

20. SALGST: Population Results
5/22/2018
SALGST: Population Results
The program fits a logistic curve to the proportions in each district with the given asymptotes, adjusts the resulting projected proportions to sum to 1.00, and then distributes the projected total population for each projected year among the subareas (shown here on the POP sheet).

21. Non-Cohort-Component Projection Methods: By Age
5/22/2018
Non-Cohort-Component Projection Methods: By Age
Projected total population by age and sex
Projected subarea population by age and sex
Projected total population by sex and subarea
Toolkit
CTBL32
Now we can take the results from SALGST (projected total population by sex and subarea) and combine it with the projected total population by age and sex and a preliminary distribution of the subareas by age and sex to get the final age-sex distribution by subarea consistent with the total projection using the workbook CTBL32.
Subarea preliminary population by age and sex

22. 5/22/2018
CTBL32: INPUT
As noted before, CTBL32 implements iterative proportions fitting (IPF) or raking of the population by age. Here we see the INPUT sheet. On the far left is the desired total male population by age (for in this example). In columns E, F, and G are the subarea populations by age, usually from the latest census. The other inputs are the alternate column totals shown in row 32. In this example, these can come from the workbook SALGST we just looked at, and represent the desired total population distribution by subarea.

23. 5/22/2018
CTBL32: OUTPUT
The OUTPUT sheet displays the age distributions by subarea that are consistent with the age distribution of the higher geographic area (country in this example) and with the distribution of total populations by subarea. CTBL32 does five cycles of row and column “rakes” (adjustments) to get the final results.

24. Non-Cohort-Component Projection Summary
5/22/2018
Non-Cohort-Component Projection Summary
First use SALGST to get projected total populations by subarea and sex.
Then use CTBL32 to get the age distribution for each subarea and sex.
Note that there can be consistency issues in this approach because the sexes are projected independently, so the sex ratios of young children may imply an implausible sex ratio at birth.

25. Tools for Making Assumptions for Cohort-Component Projection
5/22/2018
Tools for Making Assumptions for Cohort-Component Projection

26. From the Overview
Preparation of consistent base year population, for a first series of projections
Preparation of consistent assumptions about future migration and, optionally, consistent assumptions about future fertility and mortality
From data to preliminary subnational area estimates of population by age and sex
Consistent assumptions about future levels
ProjTFR32
The Toolkit provides an Excel workbook to help the analyst with the first
task, preparing a set of preliminary subnational area estimates of
population by age and sex.
The Toolkit provides 3 Excel workbooks to help the analyst with the
second task, preparing consistent assumptions about future fertility,
mortality, and migration.
Proje032
CTBL32
MIGSUB 26

27. Preparing for Cohort-Component Projections
Preparing consistent base-year population structures. CTBL32 may also be used to provide consistent subnational base population age-sex structures prior to cohort-component projection.
Projecting fertility and mortality. ProjTFR32 and Proje are designed to help ensure internal consistency of national and subnational projections of fertility (TFR) and mortality (e(0)), respectively.
Projecting migration. MIGSUB computes estimates and projections of migration for subnational areas based on tabulated responses to a question about residence one or five years prior to a census.
This section is a demonstration of four Toolkit workbooks for preparing base populations, fertility, mortality, and migration for subareas.
CTBL32 may also be used to provide consistent subnational base population age-sex structures prior to cohort-component projection.
The second and third tools, ProjTFR32 and Proje032, are designed to help ensure internal consistency of national and subnational projections of fertility (TFR) and mortality (e(0)), respectively. These workbooks facilitate calculation of projected TFR and e(0) for subarea populations as inputs to cohort-component projection.
A fourth tool, MIGSUB, which will be added to the toolkit soon, estimates area-specific in-migration, out-migration, and net migration for subnational areas based on tabulated responses to a question about residence one or five years prior to a census or from a published table of flows of in-migrants and out-migrants for that period. The pattern of internal migration from the reference census is used, along with user-provided assumptions about trend in migration levels, to project numbers of internal migrants for a user-specified time horizon. The same pattern is used to model international migration into and out of subareas over the projection horizon.

28. Introduction to ProjTFR32 and ProjE032
The process of preparing assumptions for subnational projections carries with it a number of challenges not faced by the demographer involved in the process of preparing assumptions for national projections. These challenges include the requirement of consistency between projected subnational and national populations but, for cohort-component projections, the desirability of some level of inter-regional consistency. ProjTFR32 and Proje032 allow the analyst to model subarea TFR and e(0)s using the assumed trend for the country as a whole or the trend for a similar region, to avoid implausible assumptions based on historically atypical region-specific trends.

29. ProjTFR32
This method computes the relative change, RC, in the complement or gap between TFR and the limit TFR (K) for the country as a whole over period t to t+n RC = [K - National TFRt+n] /[K - National TFRt] ProjTFR32 calculates projected subarea TFR as the relative change in national (or model area) gap times initial subarea gap, and the resulting subarea TFR is then taken as the limit (K) minus the product, or Subnational TFRt+n= K - { (K-Subnational TFRt) * RC }
The TFR trajectory in relation to the TFR target level for all subnational areas follows that for the national population. For each projected year, the relative change in the complement for each subarea is the same as for the national projection.
This workbook requires an estimated TFR time series for a national or model population and base year estimates of TFR for subarea, or dependent, population.
For change in the complement or gap between TFR and the limit TFR (K) for the country as a whole over period t to t+n
K − National TFRt+n K − National TFRt
ProjTFR32 calculates projected subarea TFR as the relative change in national (or model area) gap times initial subarea gap, and the resulting subarea TFR is then taken as the limit (K) minus the product, or
Subnational area TFRt+n= K−{(K−Subnational area TFRt) ∗ (K − National TFRt+n)) (K − National TFRt)

30. ProjTFR32
To implement this we need the base year and the limit TFR used to compute the complement of the TFR.

31. ProjTFR32
We then need to enter the national base year TFR value and the corresponding TFR values for the subnational areas so we can compute the base complement values. The names of the subnational areas can also be changed.

32. ProjTFR32
The final inputs are the projected years (which default to 5 year intervals from the base year but can be changed) and the corresponding national projected TFR values. Note that the method is based only on the TFR values and not the years.

33. ProjE032
Basically uses the same formulas as ProjTFR32, but separately by sex
Again requires a limit, in this case the upper limit of life expectancy by sex

34. ProjE032
Here we can see the inputs are similar to ProjTFR32, but we need to include male and female limit values. Once the subnational area names are entered for males they will transfer to the section for females.

35. MIGSUB
Projects internal and international migrants by sex and subnational area
Internal in- and out-migrants based on census data about residence X years before the census
Internal migration projection based on the implied total internal net number of migrants, user-specified future growth rate of the total internal migration rate, and projected total population
Total internal migrants are distributed by subarea based on the patterns of estimated in- and out-migrants from the census
International net migration by subarea is projected based on input total net international migrants and the pattern of internal in-migrants by subarea
MigSub projects internal and international migrants by sex and subnational area. Internal in- and out-migrants are estimated from the population by subarea at the time of a census and at a prior time point (based on a question in the census about residence X years before the census).
The internal migration projection is based on the implied total internal net number of migrants and a user-specified future growth rate of the total internal migration rate and the projected total population. The resulting projected total internal migrants are distributed by subarea based on the patterns of estimated in- and out-migrants from the census.
International migration by subarea is projected based on input total net international migrants and the pattern of internal in-migrants by subarea.
The method does not provide information on the age distribution of migrants. This can be based on models such as the Rogers and Castro (1981) model or on other data sources.

36. MIGSUB: SETUP Sheet
Setup tab allows user to specify number of subareas, recent census dates, time reference of the migration question, and the desired years for the projected migration output.

37. MIGSUB: Internal Migration Estimation
The user enters data based on the census migration data on the INPUT sheet. The migrant numbers shown reflect only the population ages X and over at the time of the census, and cover the X-year period before the census.
Internal in-migrants are calculated as the difference between those enumerated in the subarea and non-migrants in the subarea.
Internal out-migrants are the difference between those resident in the subarea X years before and non-migrants.

38. MIGSUB: Total Internal Migration Projection
Using estimates of migrants under age X at the time of the census entered on the Internal tab, MIGSUB adjusts total migrants to reflect the fact that some percentage of migrants are under age X at the time of the census and may not be tabulated in census report. If the user decides not to estimate this omitted number of migrants, the adjustment is based on the migration reference period, X, the total number of internal migrants by sex based on the census data, an assumed sex ratio of missing child migrants of 1.0, and estimates of both sexes percent missing based on models of migration rate age patterns and estimated populations by age and sex.

39. MIGSUB: Output
One of the output pages – PROJ-FEMALE. Based on internal migration pattern in total migrants, assumed population growth, and assumed change in migration rates, the workbook calculates projected number of internal migrants by sex for output years specified by the user.

40. MIGSUB: Output
One of the output pages – PROJ-FEMALE. Net international migration, also assumed by the user, is distributed using the pattern of internal in-migration. We also get the total net migration for each area.

41. Tools for Cohort-Component Projection
5/22/2018
Tools for Cohort-Component Projection

42. From the Overview
Here we are looking at tools for doing cohort-component projections and ensuring that they are consistent at different levels of geography.
From data to preliminary subnational area estimates of population by age and sex
Consistent assumptions about future levels
Subarea cohort-component projections
Combination of subarea projections, or proportional adjustment to match a control projection
Non-cohort-component projections for lower-level subareas consistent with higher-level cohort-component projections
ProjTFR32
DAPPS/
RUP
Proje032
Borrowing a slide from the overview, this section will focus on:
Production of subarea cohort-component projections
The combination of subarea projections , or forced consistency with a
control projection
RUPAGG
CTBL32
MIGSUB
SALGST
RUPSubAdj
CTBL32 42

43. Cohort-Component Projection Methods and Tools
5/22/2018
Cohort-Component Projection Methods and Tools
Cohort-component projections at national or subnational levels (DAPPS/RUP)
Aggregation or disaggregation of cohort-component projections (RUPAGG)
Adjustment of preliminary subnational cohort-component projections to agree with national cohort-component projection (RupSubAdj)

44. Cohort-Component Projection Methods (Aggregation)
5/22/2018
Cohort-Component Projection Methods (Aggregation)
(DAPPS/
RUP)
(DAPPS/
RUP)
(DAPPS/
RUP)
The simplest approach to ensuring consistency is to use the “bottom-up” approach. This means doing projections at a lower geographical level (Region in this example) and aggregating the results to the next level (national in this example). The RUP program can be used for each Region projection and RUPAGG is then used to sum up the results to the national level.

45. Cohort-Component Projection Methods (RUPAGG Aggregation)
5/22/2018
Cohort-Component Projection Methods (RUPAGG Aggregation)
TITL
Aggregation of RUP files for Regions 1, 2, and 3 of
the Republic of Demographica
BASE 2000
PROJ 2025 N
TOT
CODE
*********|*********|*********|
INPF
Region1.IO1
Region2.IO1
Region3.IO1
OUTP
OMX
END
Here is a sample RUPAGG input file. Its purpose is to point the program to the intermediate files to aggregate (as well as provide some information to label the output and direct what outputs are desired).

46. Cohort-Component Projection Methods (Disaggregation)
5/22/2018
Cohort-Component Projection Methods (Disaggregation)
(DAPPS/
RUP)
(DAPPS/
RUP)
RUPAGG can also be used to do disaggregations. In this case we subtract projections for Regions 1 and 2 from a national projection to get a projection of Region 3 as a residual.
(DAPPS/
RUP)

47. Cohort-Component Projection Methods (RUPAGG Disaggregation)
5/22/2018
Cohort-Component Projection Methods (RUPAGG Disaggregation)
TITL
Residual projection of Demographica's Region 3
BASE 2000
PROJ 2025 N
TOT
CODE
*********|*********|*********|
INPF
Country.IO1
INPF
Region1.IO1
Region2.IO1
OUTP
OMX
END
Note the -1 for Region1 and Region2 indicating these should be subtracted from the national totals in Country.io1.
For the disaggregation, we simply indicate which projections are to be subtracted in the disaggregation process.

48. Adjustment of Subnational Projections to Total
5/22/2018
Adjustment of Subnational Projections to Total
National-level cohort-component projection (DAPPS/RUP)
Final subnational cohort-component projections (RUPAGG)
Toolkit:
RUPSubAdj
Preliminary subnational cohort-component projections (DAPPS/RUP)
Another way to implement the “top-down” approach is to do preliminary projections of the subareas as well as the total (national). We then adjust the subnational projections to be consistent with the national projection. The RUPSubAdj workbook adjusts the population, deaths, and international and internal migrants by sex and single year of age, and births by single age of mother to agree with the corresponding values for the national projection. Since each year is adjusted, the base year data do not necessarily have to be consistent between the national and subarea values.

49. RupSubAdj Control Sheet
5/22/2018
RupSubAdj Control Sheet
The Control sheet of the RUPSubAdj requires three inputs (assisted by the numbered buttons):
The location of where to store the adjusted subnational projections (they will all be stored in the same location)
The national projection RUP input file (name and file location)
The preliminary subnational RUP input files (names and locations)
Pressing button 4 will do the adjustment, create RUPAGG input and IO1 files with the adjusted data, and run RUPAGG to create all the output needed by RUPEX (the RUP/RUPAGG Excel interface) to display the results.

50. RupSubAdj Population Adjustment Factors
5/22/2018
RupSubAdj Population Adjustment Factors
The other sheets in the workbook display the adjustment factors applied to each subarea’s population, deaths, births, and migrants, by sex and single years of age. All of the adjustments (except for migrants) are simply ratios of the independent national projection value to the sum of the preliminary subnational projection values.

51. RupSubAdj Population and Vital Events Adjustment Factors
5/22/2018
RupSubAdj Population and Vital Events Adjustment Factors
The adjustment factor, fV, for variable V (population, deaths, or births) is computed as:
 fV y,s,a = NV(y,s,a)/ r V(r,y,s,a) if > 0
 and the adjusted value of V (called V’) is then:
V’(r,y,s,a) = V(r,y,s,a) * fV(y,s,a)
where:
NV=national value for variable V
r= region or subarea
s=sex
y=year
a=age

52. RupSubAdj Migration Adjustment Factors
5/22/2018
RupSubAdj Migration Adjustment Factors
The adjustment factor, fM, for variable M (internal or international migrants) is computed as:
 fM y,s,a = r M(r,y,s,a)−NM(y,s,a) / r P(r,y,s,a)
And the adjusted value of M (called M’) is then:
M’(r,y,s,a) = M(r,y,s,a) - fM(y,s,a) * P(r,y,s,a)
The adjustment for migrants is different because it needs to deal with positive, negative, and zero values, and the desired values for internal migration are all zeroes (by sex and age). The procedure for migrants essentially assumes that each sex-age-specific migration rate by subarea is off by a constant value. The result is a slight shifting in the same direction of the net number of migrants for a given age-sex group for all subareas.
where:
P(r,y,s,a) = value of population variable P for subnational area r
Other variables are as previously defined

53. RupSubAdj Migration Adjustment Factors
5/22/2018
RupSubAdj Migration Adjustment Factors
The factors shown are essentially the change in the net migration rate for each subarea for the particular age-sex group. We can see here that the values are close to zero (rounding to less that one per thousand) for the first few years. The values increase to about two per thousand for some age groups by 2025.

54. Cohort-Component Projection Summary
5/22/2018
Cohort-Component Projection Summary
Cohort-component projections at national or subnational levels (DAPPS/RUP)
Aggregation or disaggregation of cohort-component projections (RUPAGG) allows bottom-up or top-down consistent projections
RupSubAdj is an alternative top-down approach that adjusts preliminary subnational cohort-component projections to agree with national cohort-component projection

55. Review The Census Bureau’s Subnational Projections Toolkit, includes:
RUP, RUPAGG, the RUPEX interface,
Excel workbooks,
Method descriptions and the User’s Guide, can be downloaded at no cost from
Your take-away from this presentation should be,
First, that the Toolkit includes tools designed for use in making
bottom-up and top-down cohort-component projections
as well as non-cohort-component
population projections, and
Second, that the Toolkit is available to you at no cost from
the Census Bureau’s website 55