1. EU & World cereal market situation

2. 2008/09 Marketing Year US financial crisis 1 euro= $1.46113
General Context
US financial crisis
1 euro= $
Freight rates
Crude oil:
On Wednesday the change eur/$ closed at This is a 11-month low against the dollar which is strengthening after benefitting from the U.S.
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

3. Euro/dollar exchange rate
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

4. Fret : Baltic Dry Index
4 163

5. EU 27 Cereal Area
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

6. Agrometeo conditions in July-August 2008
No significant extreme events occurred.
general favorable thermal conditions
very wet in northern latitudes (field works disturbed)
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

7. Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

8. EU-27 Cereal Production
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

9. EU 27 cereal production Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008
DG-AGRI Outlook cereal production figure is increased to mio t. (303 last forecast), about 50 mio t. more comparing to last year. Soft wheat is expected at almost 137 mio t (112 last year). Durum wheat at 9.6 versus 8.2 mio t last year; barley at 64.6 mio t (57.7 last year) and maize at 61.9 against 48.3 last year.
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

10. EU 27 Balance
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

11. EU Export Commitments
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

12. EU Import Commitments
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

13. USDA – Sept Report Wheat Production
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

14. USDA –Sept Report Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008
Source: USDA
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

15. Wheat export prices since 1/1/2007
Large global wheat supplies continued to keep under pressure export prices in the past weeks, although concerns that crops in Australia and Argentina might not be as big as expected provided some support. Declines were also linked to strength in the US dollar and the continued general weakness of commodities, especially crude oil, under heavy speculative selling pressure.
US SRW FOB Gulf is quoted at 231 $/t against 238 $/t last week and 268 $/t two weeks ago. Black see feed FOB decreased to 190 $/t (215 $/t two weeks ago).
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

16. EU Wheat prices since 1/1/2007
European Union wheat prices fell further this week under pressure of plentiful global wheat supplies and falling crude oil continued. In Germany, prices were pushed down by continuing pressure from the large new crop coupled with the fall in Paris. Nevertheless, the fall in the euro against the dollar is expected to help EU exports in the new campaign. Dlvd Rouen reached 170 €/t while was 183 and 191 €/t respectively one and two weeks ago, FOB Hamburg is at 190 eur /t as one week ago while Feed FOB UK at 141 (144 one week ago). In Paris, Euronext November wheat futures hit a 14-month low of euros before holding around the key support level of 168 euros.
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

17. Common Wheat purchases
Iraq: t of Russian hard milling wheat at around $300 /t FOB (24/09).
Egypt: Yesterday t of Russian wheat at 269 $/t c&f. Last week 205 000 t of wheat all from Russia and Ukraine at prices ranging from $236 to $243/t fob. The week before: 190 000 t including 115 000 t from the EU at $251/t fob and 75 000 t from Russia/Ukraine at $250/t fob.
Tunisia: t soft wheat in a tender on 12 September/ milling wheat between $ and $ /t c&f.
Morocco awarded licences for the import of 765 000 tonnes of soft wheat (11 September)
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

18. USDA –Sept Report Maize Production
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

19. USDA –Sept Report
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

20. Maize and sorghum export prices since 1/1/2007
US maize prices posted further losses, declining to 236 $/t, 8$ since last week and 16$ two weeks ago, with trading largely influenced by external market developments; i.e. general weakness in commodities, including a retreat in crude oil values, US dollar strength and slow export demand.
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

21. EU maize prices since 1/1/2007
Maize Dlvd Bordeaux quotations fell from 182 €/t two weeks ago to 170 €/t (Tuesday quotation). MATIF futures posted further losses, the spot Nov contract down by 8%, weighed by slow demand and ample supplies of alternative feedgrains.
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

22. IGC – Sept Report
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

23. IGC –Sept Report
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

24. Durum Wheat EU Prices
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

25. Durum Wheat purchases
Tunisia: 75 000 t durum in a tender on 12 September/ between $ and $ a tonne c&f.
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008

26. Thank you for your attention
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 26/09/2008