1. Michelle Kershner (and Dan Kernler) Elgin Community College Elgin, IL
Predicting Success
Michelle Kershner (and Dan Kernler)
Elgin Community College
Elgin, IL
Dan
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2. Elgin Community College (ECC)
16,128 students ( )
71% part-time
Average age is 27
Dan

3. Purpose Analyze GPA as a predictor for success
Share our updated placement procedure
Discuss early results
Share your placement procedures that use multiple measures

4. Our Original Analysis (2010)
Binomial logistic regression using COMPASS Algebra score as predictor for course success (C or better)
Add ACT Math sub-score and HS Cumulative GPA to regression model
Dan

5. Our Original Analysis (2010)
COMPASS Algebra score was a statistically significant predictor.
High school GPA significantly and dramatically increased the accuracy of the prediction of success.
ACT Math sub-score did not have a unique contribution to the model.
Dan

6. Success by COMPASS in Intermediate Algebra
C or better
66% success
D, W, or F
57% success
Dan
49% success

7. Success by COMPASS in Intermediate Algebra
10%
30%
53%
81%
92%
C or better
D, W, or F
Dan

8. Transfer Level Success
Consider only introductory transfer level courses:
Mth101 Quantitative Literacy
Mth102 General Education Statistics
Mth110 Math for Elementary Teachers I
Mth112 College Algebra
Focus on students with a COMPASS Algebra score only.
Reported GPA in database (some are weighted)

9. Success by COMPASS & HS GPA
Intermediate Algebra and Introductory Transfer Level Courses
Success Rates (C or better)
COMPASS Algebra Score
62-65
Transfer Level
58-61
54-57
50-53
Inter. Algebra
46-49
42-45
38-41
HS Cumulative GPA
C or better
D, W, or F

10. Success by COMPASS & HS GPA
Intermediate Algebra and Introductory Transfer Level Courses
Success Rates (C or better)
COMPASS Algebra Score
62-65
25%
30%
63%
83%
Transfer Level
58-61 0%
64%
59%
78%
54-57
33%
44%
57%
82%
50-53
50%
69%
79%
Inter. Algebra
46-49
17%
38%
88%
42-45
29%
47%
38-41
10%
26%
48%
61%
81%
HS Cumulative GPA
C or better
D, W, or F

11. COMPASS CSEM
COMPASS Reference Manual reports a conditional standard error of measurement (CSEM)
Can be interpreted similarly to confidence intervals
Measures the difference between actual score and expected score if the test were repeated
Depends on the score and test (hence conditional)
Dan

12. COMPASS CSEM
Dan

13. COMPASS CSEM
Dan

14. Success Rates (C or better)
COMPASS CSEM
Success Rates (C or better)
COMPASS Algebra Score
62-65
25%
30%
63%
83%
Transfer Level
58-61 0%
64%
59%
78%
54-57
33%
44%
57%
82%
50-53
50%
69%
79%
Inter. Algebra
46-49
17%
38%
88%
42-45
29%
47%
38-41
10%
26%
48%
61%
81%
HS Cumulative GPA
C or better
D, W, or F
Dan

15. Success Rates (C or better)
COMPASS CSEM
Success Rates (C or better)
COMPASS Algebra Score
62-65
Transfer Level
58-61
54-57
50-53
Inter. Algebra
46-49
42-45
38-41
HS Cumulative GPA
C or better
+10
-10
D, W, or F
GPA: 3.6
COMPASS: 50
Dan

16. Success Rates (C or better)
COMPASS CSEM
Success Rates (C or better)
COMPASS Algebra Score
62-65
25%
30%
63%
83%
Transfer Level
58-61 0%
64%
59%
78%
54-57
33%
44%
57%
82%
50-53
50%
69%
79%
Inter. Algebra
46-49
17%
38%
88%
42-45
29%
47%
38-41
10%
26%
48%
61%
81%
HS Cumulative GPA
C or better
D, W, or F
Dan

17. Comb. Basic & Int. Algebra
Adjusting Placement
Two principles:
Redefine “College Ready”
Accelerate completion of the developmental sequence
Basic Algebra
Intermediate Algebra
College Ready
0-32
38-54
55-100
33-37
Comb. Basic & Int. Algebra
COMPASS Algebra Score
College Ready
Dan
Combined Basic & Int. Algebra
Cumulative HS GPA
2.5
3.0
2.0
3.5

18. Adjusting Placement
College Ready (Eligible for Mth101, Mth102, Mth110, or Mth112)
55-100
College Ready*
Intermediate Algebra (Mth098)
COMPASS Algebra Score
Combined Basic and Int. Algebra (Mth099)
0 - 32
Basic Algebra (Mth096)
High School Cumulative GPA
* Assuming C or better both semesters of a second-year HS algebra course.

19. Adjusted Placement Results
Fall 2014 – Spring 2016 (4 semesters)
178 students eligible for new rule enrolled
48% took advantage and moved up a level
Of those, 76% were successful
Interestingly, only 10% of the students eligible for the Combined Basic and Intermediate Algebra moved up
Dan

20. Future Research Why aren’t more students moving up a level?
We have recently switched to ALEKS (starting Spring 2017) – will we have similar results?
Kris

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