1. Ebola, Avian Flu & HIV/AIDS
Disease: The major security threat of the future?

2. Avian Flu: H5N2
The bird flu is currently not capable of human to human transmission……….

3. Avian Flu

4. Bird Flu Today
April 2015, farmers in Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota announced they would have to kill a total of more than 5 million chickens, joining other poultry producers who have killed 2.3 million sick turkeys since the virus began spreading in March

5. Avian Flu: H5N1
Since 1997, 140 Humans have been infected and 75 have died.
This roughly 50% mortality rate has experts worried.
Only 1 American company currently manufactures flu vaccine.
1983/84 over 17 million birds euthanized
Why all the excitement?

6. The “Spanish Lady” of 1918 40 to 100 Million Deaths Worldwide
675,000 in the U.S. alone, mostly young adults from ARS
Shares genetic features with H5N1
A 1918-like flu today is likely to kill 2 million Americans
1957 & 1968 pandemics

7. Problems with Flu Vaccines
December 2005 Congress approves 3.8 Billion for flu vaccines (1/2 of Bush request)
Includes sweeping protection against lawsuits for drug manufacturers
Which vaccine? 1 year development time
Vaccine induced immunity slows detection outbreaks
“Crying Wolf” & the Swine flu of 1976

8. Who to Treat? Only enough vaccine for 5% of the population
75 Million doses needed
36,000 Americans die annually from a seasonal flu

9. What about Developing Countries?
Most developing countries would have no access to vaccines in the first wave of any pandemic
Creation of an international stockpile
US funding of education & detection abroad

10. Ebola
Ebola virus is related to the viruses that cause measles and mumps, the paramyxovirus family of Hemorrhagic Fever

11. Ebola
20,000 Cases and 7800 deaths across Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea
Took 12 wks to diagnose
Deadliest outbreak in history, but could have been stopped 6 mos. earlier, Why?

12. Ebola Corruption & Govt distrust Guinea Health Ministry
Local Culture- Kissi people
WHO cutbacks & deployment
Open Access to Science

13. HIV/AIDS & Global Security

14. HIV/AIDs in Sub-Saharan Africa

15. HIV/AIDs in Sub-Saharan Africa
25 million Africans infected with HIV, 70% of World’s total
1990s saw dramatic rise in violent conflict, 11 states at war in 1989 to 20 in 2000
War is an amplifier of disease, increasing poverty, famine and breaking down healthcare infrastructure

16. HIV/AIDs and Security
60% of some African Militaries are HIV positive, South African inability to field an HIV-free battalion for peacekeeping in Darfur
Refugee populations are ripe for sexual exploitation
AIDS orphans are likely to become child soldiers

17. HIV/AIDs and Security
“There is no war causing more death and destruction, there is no war on the face of the earth right now that is more serious, that is more grave, than the war in sub-Saharan Africa against HIV/AID.”

18. HIV/AIDs and Security
AIDS has killed more Ugandan soldiers than conflict
Empirical research attributing violent conflict to the AIDS pandemic is scarce, however there is strong correlation between environmental stress and conflict
DOD money for the first time appropriated to control HIV/AIDs in Africa

19. Overall Conclusion
Pandemics are a threat to national and global security
The impact of Ebola & HIV/AIDS are going to continue to have devastating affects if the world does not deal with the reality of consequences
Avian Flu might be scary but ultimately is of little concern