1. The TPB What Would It Take Scenario: Meeting Regional Climate Change Mitigation Goals for the Mobile Sector
Presentation to MWAQC CAC
June 15, 2009
Monica Bansal
Department of Transportation Planning
National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB)
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG)

2. TPB’s Current Climate Change Efforts
Using goals set in COG Climate Change Report
Return to 2005 levels by 2012
20% below 2005 levels by 2020
80% below 2005 levels by 2050
Developing baseline mobile GHG projections through 2030
Analyzing a “What Would It Take?” scenario to see what reductions in the mobile sector will be necessary to meet regional goals
Seeking GHG reduction strategies that could be included in the region’s transportation plans and programs

3. 2010 Travel and CO2 Emissions 8-Hour Ozone Non-Attainment Area
Where are Transportation Emissions
Coming From?
2010 Travel and CO2 Emissions
8-Hour Ozone Non-Attainment Area
VMT (billions) - Annual %
CO2 Emissions (Millions of Tons) - Annual
Passenger Cars
19.06
47%
6.76
24%
Light Duty Trucks
18.94
46%
15.38
56%
Heavy Duty
2.94 7%
5.46
20%
Total
40.95
100%
27.60
source: 2007 CLRP

4. The WWIT Scenario
Analyze three categories of strategies to reduce mobile CO2 emissions for effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and implementation timeframe
Assess combinations of strategies from these three categories:
Fuel Efficiency
Fuel Carbon
Intensity
Travel Efficiency
Reduce VMT through changes in land use, travel behavior, prices
Reduce congestion
Improve operational efficiency
Beyond CAFE standards
Alternative fuels (biofuels, hydrogen, electricity)

5. Example Mobile GHG Reduction Strategies to be Examined
Fuel Efficiency
Extending CAFE requirements to heavy trucks
Cash for Clunkers programs
Benefits of enhanced CAFE possibilities (current Obama proposal)
Alternative Fuels
Regional green fleet policy
Accelerated adoption of clean-fuel vehicles (hybrids, flex fuel)
Travel Efficiency:
Pricing policies to reduce VMT (tolling, congestion pricing, parking pricing)
Shift short trips to non-motorized modes
Increased transit capacity
Land use shifts (TOD, walkable activity centers)
Signal optimization

6. Getting to the goal of 40% reduction below 2005 levels by 2030
Do these strategies get us there?

15. What Next? More TERMS GHG benefits of transportation/land use scenario
(CLRP Aspirations Scenario)
Cost-effectiveness analysis