1. Factors Affecting Choice of Investment Securities (continued)
10-1
Factors Affecting Choice of Investment Securities (continued)
Interest Rate Risk
Rising interest rates lowers the value of previously issued bonds
Longest –term bonds suffer the greatest Losses
Many interest rate risk tools including futures, options, and swaps exist today
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2. Factors Affecting Choice of Investment Securities (continued)
10-2
Factors Affecting Choice of Investment Securities (continued)
Credit or Default Risk
The risk that the security issuer may default on the principal or interest owed
Three major credit ratings agencies
Moody’s
Standard & Poor’s
Fitch’s Rating Service
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3. 10-3
TABLE 10–4 Default Risk Ratings on Marketable Investment Securities (including long-term corporate obligations)
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4. Factors Affecting Choice of Investment Securities (continued)
10-4
Factors Affecting Choice of Investment Securities (continued)
Business Risk
Risk that the economy of the market area the financial institution serves may slow down
Security portfolio can offset this risk
Securities can be purchased from outside the market area served
Liquidity Risk
Can a security be converted into cash quickly and easily without significant loss in value?
A key issue – the breadth and depth of a security’s resale market
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5. Factors Affecting Choice of Investment Securities (continued)
10-5
Factors Affecting Choice of Investment Securities (continued)
Call Risk
Many corporations and some governments that issue securities reserve the right to call in instruments in advance of maturity and pay them off
Because such calls usually take place when market interest rates have declined (and the borrower can get lower interest costs), the financial firm investing in callable securities runs the risk of an earnings loss because it must reinvest its recovered funds at lower interest rates
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6. Factors Affecting Choice of Investment Securities (continued)
10-6
Factors Affecting Choice of Investment Securities (continued)
Prepayment Risk
A form of risk specific to asset-backed securities
This form of risk arises because the realized interest and principal payments from a pool of securitized loans may be quite different from the cash flows expected originally
Variations in cash flow to holders of the securities backed by these loans can arise from
Loan refinancings
Turnover of the assets behind the loans
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7. Factors Affecting Choice of Investment Securities (continued)
10-7
Factors Affecting Choice of Investment Securities (continued)
Prepayment Risk
This means that the market value of a loan-backed security depends not only upon the promised cash flows it will generate, but also on the projected prepayments and loan defaults that occur
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8. Factors Affecting Choice of Investment Securities (continued)
10-8
Factors Affecting Choice of Investment Securities (continued)
Inflation Risk
Purchasing power from a security or loan may be eroded by rising prices
Recently developed inflation risk hedge – Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
Both coupon payments and principal adjusted annually for inflation based on Consumer Price Index
TIPS do not protect investors from all the effects of inflation, such as moving into higher tax brackets
Carry market risk like regular bonds
Tend to be less liquid
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9. Factors Affecting Choice of Investment Securities (continued)
10-9
Factors Affecting Choice of Investment Securities (continued)
Pledging Requirements
Depository institutions in the United States cannot accept deposits from federal, state, and local governments unless they post collateral acceptable to these governmental units
State and local government deposit pledging requirements differ widely from state to state, though most allow a combination of federal and municipal securities to meet government pledging requirements
If a financial institution uses repurchase agreements (RPs) to raise money, it must pledge some of its securities (usually Treasury and federal agency issues) as collateral in order to receive funds at the lowest RP rate
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10. Investment Maturity Strategies
10-10
Investment Maturity Strategies
The Ladder or Spaced-Maturity Policy
The Front-End Load Maturity Policy
The Back-End Load Maturity Policy
The Barbell Strategy
The Rate Expectation Approach
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11. 10-11
EXHIBIT 10–2 Alternative Maturity Strategies for Managing Investment Portfolios
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12. 10-12
EXHIBIT 10–2 Alternative Maturity Strategies for Managing Investment Portfolios
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13. 10-13
EXHIBIT 10–2 Alternative Maturity Strategies for Managing Investment Portfolios
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14. 10-14
EXHIBIT 10–3 Additional Maturity Strategies for Managing Investment Portfolios
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15. 10-15
EXHIBIT 10–3 Additional Maturity Strategies for Managing Investment Portfolios
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16. Maturity Management Tools
10-16
Maturity Management Tools
The Yield Curve
Picture of how market interest rates differ across various maturities
Constructed most easily with Treasury securities
Provides information about under and over priced securities
Provides information about the risk-return trade-off
Duration
Present value weighted average maturity of the cash flows
Can be used to insulate the securities from interest rate changes
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17. EXHIBIT 10–4 The Yield Curve
10-17
EXHIBIT 10–4 The Yield Curve
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18. Maturity Management Tools (continued)
10-18
Maturity Management Tools (continued)
Immunization
Duration also suggests a way to minimize damage to an investing institution’s earnings that changes in market interest rates may cause
Duration gives the investments officer a tool to reduce his or her institution’s exposure to interest rate risk
Portfolio immunization is protecting securities purchased from loss of return, no matter which way interest rates go
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19. 10-19
Quick Quiz
Why do banks and other institutions choose to devote a significant portion of their assets to investment securities?
What are the principal money market and capital market instruments available to institutions today?
What types of investment securities do banks seem to prefer the most? By size of institutions? Explain.
If a government bond is expected to mature in two years and has a current price of $950, what is the bond’s YTM if it has a par value of $1000 and a promised coupon rate of 10 percent? Suppose this bond is sold one year after purchase for a price of $970. What would this investor’s holding period return be?
How can the yield curve and duration help an investment officer choose which securities to acquire or sell?
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