1. SEADMC 2009 Scenario Brief 02 & 07 December 2009 02-0010 / 07-0008
As of 29 Nov 09

2. Seismic Activities in Sunda Strait
October 15, 2009: Seismic tremors centered in Sunda Strait increased in intensity and frequency
October 23-November 12, 2009: Eruptive activity on Anak Krakatau resumes.
Most are minor
Some large enough to cause CVGHM* to raise Alert Level to Alert Level 3
Alert Level lowered back to Alert Level 2 on 12 November
Anak Krakatau
Serang
Jakarta
* Center of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation

3. Indonesia Alert System
Alert Level 1 Aktif Normal
Monitoring does not indicate changes
No eruption in foreseeable future
Alert Level 2 Waspada
Increasing activity, visual changes around crater
Magmatic, tectonic disturbance, no eruption imminent
Alert Level 3 Siaga
Intensively increasing activity
If trend of unrest continues, eruption possible in two weeks
Alert Level 4 Awas
Initial eruption of ash and vapor
Main eruption possible within 24 hours

4. Increased Intensity November 15, 2009: Activity increases rapidly
Alert Level raised to Alert Level 3
November 17, 2009:
Alert Level raised to Alert Level 4

5. 7.9 Earthquake and Eruption
November 19, 2009:
7.9 earthquake strikes 13 km below surface just northeast of Anak Krakatau
Anak Krakatau explodes, northern caldera disappears
Ash plumes rise 10 km
Pyroclastic flows speed outward to western Java-Banten Province
Map / Graphic

6. Earthquake-generated Tsunami
November 19, 2009: Earthquake-generated tsunami sweeps western Java and eastern Sumatra
Waves up to 15 meters high strike west coast of Java from Merak to Tamanjaya.
Northern coast of Banten Province hit by waves up to 10 meters high
Banten town is destroyed

7. Death and Destruction
Volcanic ash covers much of Banten Province, including Serang
“Tens of thousands” are feared dead or missing
Homes, business, resorts, farms, fish pens, roads are destroyed or damaged

8. Chemical Plants Damaged / Destroyed
Earthquake and tsunami cause massive damage to chemical plants and port facilities in Anyer.
Hazardous materials threaten life and property in coastal and industrial areas

9. Day 2: November 20, 2009
Ash continues to fall, moving east towards Jakarta
Foreign governments press GOI for information on their nationals vacationing in resorts on west coast of Java
International community offers relief aid, funds, personnel, equipment, and military support

10. Day 3: November 21, 2009 GOI responds to the disasters
TNI supports BNPB, SATKORLAK
Indonesia NGOs, in-country representatives of international NGOs, UN agencies ( in country) support GOI
GOI resources are stretched to capacity
GOI, UNDAC assessment teams deploy
GOI welcomes international support and aid; starts prioritizing needs

11. Day 5: November 23, 2009 115,000 estimated population displaced
Looming health emergency for survivors
Food and potable water shortages creating
Insufficient medical resources
Significant international assistance begins to arrive in Jakarta and Serang.
Some Anyer port facilities are able to receive supplies

12. Day 7: November 25, 2009
Foreign military commences major support to Banten Province relief efforts
Thousands remain homeless
Shelters overcrowded
Medical resources inadequate
Recovery of dead bodies and treatment of human remains becoming a major problem

13. Infrastructure Damage
Deaths:
Estimated 25,000 dead in Banten Province
15,000 in coastal areas: Merak to Tamanjaya
5,000 between coast and Serang
2,500 in Banten town and south towards Serang
2,000 in Serang
Injuries:
Approximately 18,000 (10,000 included in internally displaced)
Trauma, fire
Toxic poisoning
Internally Displaced:
Over 115,000
Mostly inland between Anyer and Merak and vicinity of Serang

14. Infrastructure Port Facilities: Roads: Structures:
Wharves and warehouses between Merak and Anyer damaged / destroyed
Chemical storage tanks in Merak port damaged; chemical spills cover coastal waters
Roads:
Roads between Merak and Tamanjaya damaged; many parts are impassible
Expressway linking Jakarta and Merak damaged; all overpasses between Merak and Serang damaged
Structures:
Virtually all buildings and residences in tsunami zone damaged or destroyed
Multi-story buildings in Serang damaged