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Rostow’s Stages of Economic Growth
Introduction The Stages of Economic Growth was published in 1960 This work is also entitled as “A Non Communist Manifesto”. His work was controversial- because provides alternative- Karl Marx –Theory of Modern History. He aware the limitations of his theory. Still claimed- theory designed to tackle wide range of issues. He suggested five stages of economic growth Both tried to interpret evolution of society from an economic perspective.
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Basis of Theory Issues raised in the theory
Under what reasons did Traditional Agricultural Societies begin the process of their modernization? When and how did regular growth come to be a built in future of each society. What are the forces drawn the process of sustained growth. What are social and physical features and of growth process may be descent. In which direction did the uniqueness of each society express itself at each stage? What forces have determined the relations between the more developed and less developed area. Where component interest taking us. It is taking us to communism or the affluent society or the suborn nicely rounded out social destructions.
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Rostow’s Briefings He sought to explain the process of economic growth through historical perspective. Emphasized the necessity of dynamic and dis- aggregative theory of production. Keynesian and classical analysis are rigid and static. He elaborates certain leading sectors, early stages of revolution. Economic development with become essential sequence of stages. Wants to examine the sectoral structure of economies of the growth process.
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The Five Stages of Economic Growth
A. Traditional Society. B. Pre conditions for Takeoff. C. Take Off. D. Drive to Maturity. E. Age of High mass Consumption.
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Traditional Society A Traditional society according to him , as one whose structure is developed within limited production functions based on Pre Newtonian science and technology. Agriculture dominated society. Lack of science and technology. Systematic use of science and technology lacking. Economic changes could be made possible through more land can be brought under cultivation. Pattern of trade and commerce can be including farm outputs. Scale and pattern of trade and commerce can be expanded by increase in agricultural productivity.
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Traditional Society Hierarchical society strata.
Social structure- Hierarchical society strata. Families and clan connections dominated. Political powers. Large retain of soldiers and civil servants. 75% agriculture population. Agriculture is the main source of income. Expensive funerals, marriages, persecutions and wars. Construction of temples, and monuments. Lack of innovations and inventions. Spirit of unproductive lines of activities. Lack of tools and equipments. Improvement after Newtonian period. Domestication and Use of animals. Low investment. The norms of economic growth are completely absent.
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Traditional Society Hierarchical society strata.
Social structure- Hierarchical society strata. Families and clan connections dominated. Political powers. Large retain of soldiers and civil servants. 75% agriculture population. Agriculture is the main source of income. Expensive funerals, marriages, persecutions and wars. Construction of temples, and monuments. Lack of innovations and inventions. Spirit of unproductive lines of activities. Lack of tools and equipments. Improvement after Newtonian period. Domestication and Use of animals. Low investment. The norms of economic growth are completely absent.
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Pre conditions to Take-off
This is 2nd stage of Economic growth. Pre condition for sustained growth created. Transitional era. Such conditions developed in Europe at the end of15th century. End of medieval age and started of modern age.
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Pre conditions to Take-off
Four forces encouraged the takeoff The New Learning and Renaissance. The New Monarchy. The New World. Terra Incognita New Religion or Reformation. These forces leads to- Reasoning and skepticism in place of faith and authority. Brought an end of feudalism. Rise of nation state concept. Spirit of adventure leads to new discoveries and innovations. Rise of middle class. Rise of Elite class; new market centers, mercantile cities.
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Take-off Take off is the interval during which the are of investment increases in such away that real out put per capita increases significantly. This initial increase carries with it radical changes in the techniques of production and the disposition of the income flows. Investment increases, rise per capita out put. Growth becomes normal condition. The traditional values, habits and an institutions completely changes due course of modernization. Industrial revolution lasts foe two to three decades. Economic growth becomes common and automatic phenomenon. Take off is initiated by a sharp stimulate either political or industrial revolution which affects the economic and social institutions.
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Conditions for Take-off
1.Increase in productive investment fro 5 % to %. 2. Development of leading industry or sector. a. Primary growth sectors-exploitation and exploration of untapped resources. b. Supplementary growth sectors- expansion of I and S industry. c. Derived growth sectors- textile, growth takes place steadily. Development of one or more substantial manufacturing sector with high growth rate. The emergence of a suitable socio-political and institutional frame wok. Under which the growth and expansion of modern sector becomes sustained.
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Drive To Maturity As the period when society has effectively applied the range of modern technology to the bulk of its resources. This stage refers to the need for the economy itself to diversify. The sector which are initial leading replaces by the other sectors. Some 10 to20 % of the national income is steadily invested.
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Drive To Maturity Import decreases and replace by home indigenous production. New commodities exported two match them. Reduction in poverty and rising standard of living. Not necessarily of sacrificing the comfort to gain momentum and strengthening of certain sectors.
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Age of High Mass Consumption
This stage refers to the period of contemporary comfort afforded in many Western nations. Leading sectors shift towards the durable consumer goods and services. Real income per head rises significantly. Large number of persons gained command over consumption which transcended basic foods, shelter, and clothing. Use of automobiles, electric powered household gadgets, luxurious goods increase. Structure of working force changed. In crease in urbanization. Skill oriented jobs . Allocation of resources for welfare of the society and environment concerns.
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Age of High Mass Consumption
This stage refers to the period of contemporary comfort afforded in many Western nations. Leading sectors shift towards the durable consumer goods and services. Real income per head rises significantly. Large number of persons gained command over consumption which transcended basic foods, shelter, and clothing. Use of automobiles, electric powered household gadgets, luxurious goods increase. Structure of working force changed. In crease in urbanization. Skill oriented jobs . Allocation of resources for welfare of the society and environment concerns.
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Criticism on Model Prof. Cairns cross observes that economic historians emphasize continuity of historic change but Rostow like to be tresses discontinuity . According to Higgins, economic historians are sceptical about the dates of take-off as suggested by Rostow. The analysis of take-off does not take into account the degrees of backwardness differences in historical heritage and starting time for development, various relevant factors in underdeveloped countries. . The requirement off an investment rate to extend of the rate 10 % of the national income of arbitrary there is no historical data to substantial a share rise in saving-income ratio at the initial stage of economic growth the rise may be only gradual .
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Criticism on Model Prof. Cairns does not agree with the Rostow’s idea on leading sector. There is no basis for recognizing the leading sector. They seems to be no relationship between the conception and the latter stage, Rostow thinks that the leading sectors must be manufacturing . For take-off Rostow’ emphasizes the existence of a suitable institutional frame work. Prof Cairns cross argue that the institutions may follow take-off but cannot be presumed that to proceed it.
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