1. Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva
Modelling the Impact of Mass Protests of 2010s on Political Change  (by using Data Envelopment and Social Network Analysis)
Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva
Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017

2. Research goal and tasks
To evaluate the impact of mass protests of 2010s on socio-political change along with other drivers of change
Describe possible trajectories of political change
Identify (contra-) tendencies of main drivers of change
Describe models of protest publics’ impact on political change
Test the proposed models by statistical analysis. Evaluate whether the proposed models match the empirical results
To define reasons for positive and negative change under impact of mass protests in 2010s
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Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

3. Theoretical framework
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© Anufriev A., Zaytsev D. G. “Protest Publics” in Egypt and Turkey from 2011 Till Present Days: Assessment of Impact on Political Changes // Comparative Politics (Russia) Vol. 7. No. 2(23). P
Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

4. Parameters and Indicators (1)
Situational change
Source
Number of changes of ruling head of the state in the period
Official Election Results
Number of changes of Ruling Party in the period
Number of changes of Government Coalitions
Open Sources
Number of Constitutions adopted in the period
% of respondents, who support Government/President
Existing polls of national agencies
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Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

5. Parameters and Indicators (2)
Institutional change
Source
Index of Political Rights
Freedom House - Freedom in the World
Index of Civil Liberties
Laws and regulations that influence media content. Legal environment
Freedom House - Freedom of the Press
Political pressures and controls on media content. Political environment
Economic influences over media content. Economic environment
POLITY2 Revised Combined Polity Score
Polity IV
Electoral process and pluralism
Economist Democracy Index
Functioning of government
Political participation
Political culture
Civil liberties
The Economist Intelligence Unit’s index of democracy
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Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

6. Parameters and Indicators (3)
Institutional change
Source
State Fragility Index
Center of Systemic Peace
State Failure
Policy change
The level of corruption
Corruption Perception Index
Voice and Accountability
Worldwide Governance Indicators
Rule of Law
Regulatory Quality
Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism
Government Effectiveness
Control of Corruption
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Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

7. Parameters and Indicators (4)
Economic factors
Source
GDP per capita (current US$)
The World Bank
GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$)
GDP per capita growth (annual %)
The level of economic inequality (Gini Index)
Unemployment
Inflation, consumer prices
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Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

8. European Social Survey / Afrobarometer / Arabbarometer
Parameters and Indicators (5)
Cultural & Social factors
Source
The prevalence of material / post-modern values: Materialist & Post-materialist
World Value Survey /
European Social Survey / Afrobarometer / Arabbarometer
Religious denomination
Emancipative values
Satisfaction with your life
Most people can be trusted
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Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

9. Parameters and Indicators (6)
Political & Demographical factors
Source
Interest in politics
World Value Survey /
European Social Survey /
Afrobarometer / Arabbarometer
Income equality
Confidence: Police; Justice System/Courts; Political Parties; Parliament
How democratically is country being governed today
Human Development Indicator
United Nations Development Program
Population growth/decline
The World Bank
Life expectancy at birth
Total fertility rate
Percentage of total population by broad age groups
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
Adult literacy rate
Protest as a Factor
Significance of protests
Factiva
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Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

10. 1. Significant mass protests 2. Significant political change
Case selection
Trajectories of Political Change
Brazil
China
Egypt
France
Greece
Iceland
India
Italy
Morocco
Russia
SAR
Spain
Syria
Tunisia
Turkey UK
Ukraine
USA
1. Significant mass protests
2. Significant political change
3. Political regime diversity representation
4. Economy & Culture & Geography diversity representation
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© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

11. Trajectories of Political Change
Situational Change
Frequent elite change beyond the normal electoral cycle (Greece, Italy, Egypt, Tunisia, Ukraine) vs irremovability of political elites (China, Russia, Turkey, Syria, SAR)
Increase of state failure problems (Syria, Ukraine, Turkey, Egypt, SAR, China), vs. (India, Russia)
Widening of political spectrum, emergence of new political parties (Spain, Italy, Greece, India)
Policy Change
Raising public concerns about corruption and inequality
Demands for economy and social policies change
Institutional Change
Decrease in freedom of the press, vs. (Tunisia, Italy)
Democratization (Tunisia, Morocco) vs increase of autocracy (Syria, Turkey, Russia, Ukraine)
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Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

12. (Contra-) Tendencies of main drivers of change
Economy
Decline of economy, vs. (Iceland, Morocco, UK, USA)
Unemployment, economic inequality
Culture
Raising impotence of secular/traditional materialist/postmaterialist, emancipative values - polarization of secular post-materialists vs traditional materialists
Politics
Decrease of confidence to traditional political institutions, vs. (Tunisia, UK); Decrease of public participation in traditional structures (trade-unions, NGOs, political parties)
Raising unsatisfaction with democracy, vs. (Tunisia, Egypt)
Society
Life dissatisfaction, vs. (India, Morocco, Tunisia)
Decrease in social trust, vs. (Tunisia, China)
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Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

13. Models of protest publics’ impact on political change (assumption)
“Triggers” of democratic development in hybrid regimes
“Challengers” of the status-quo in embedded democracies
USA
France
Iceland
Tunisia
Morocco
Egypt
Spain
Brazil
India
Russia
Turkey
China
UNDER QUESTION:
13. UK
14. Syria
15. Ukraine
16. Greece
17. SAR 
18. Italy
Spain
Brazil
India
“Watchdogs” raising concerns about the quality of democracy in consolidated democracies
“Democratic innovators” in authoritarian environments
© Anufriev A., Zaytsev D. G. “Protest Publics” in Egypt and Turkey from 2011 Till Present Days: Assessment of Impact on Political Changes // Comparative Politics (Russia) Vol. 7. No. 2(23). P
Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

14. © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva
Models of protest publics’ impact on political change (cluster analysis, 56 parameters, period 2)
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photo
Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

15. © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva
Models of protest publics’ impact on political change (cluster analysis results)
UK USA
Iceland
France
Tunisia
Morocco
Egypt
Ukraine
Spain
Italy
Greece
Russia
China
Turkey
Brazil
SAR (South Africa)
“Challengers” of the status-quo in embedded democracies
“Triggers” of democratic development in hybrid regimes
“Watchdogs” raising concerns about the quality of democracy in consolidated democracies
“Democratic innovators” in authoritarian environments
India
Syria
‘Radicalizing activists’ in state failure situation
Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

16. © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva
Political change under the impact of mass protests in 2010s (Scale)
Period 1
Period 2
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

17. Change period 1 to period 2
Political change under the impact of mass protests in 2010s (DEA) MI
Change period 1 to period 2
brazil
1,018051
Worsening
china
0,972367
Improved
egypt
0,847695
france
1,721665
greece
1,253178
iceland
1,160845
india
1,222792
morocco
0,881748
russia
1,010394
sar
1,027574
spain
0,608581
tunisia
0,774684
turkey
0,742739
ukraine
1,943386 uk
0,984153
usa
0,854234
italy
1,355295
Standard Malmquist Index:
Outputs: Quality of Governance - 6 indices of World Bank
Inputs: Socio-Economic & Cultural Conditions & Protests = 25 parameters
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

18. © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva
Political change under the impact of mass protests in 2010s (DEA)
Period 1
Period 2
brazil 1
china
0,855415
0,99602
egypt
france
greece
0,853324
iceland
india
morocco
russia
0,695511
0,995821
sar
spain
0,983317
tunisia
turkey
0,977616
ukraine
0,972185 uk
usa
0,989262
italy
0,991783
Basic Radial Models (Envelopment Forms):
Outputs: Quality of Governance - 6 indices of World Bank
Inputs: Socio-Economic & Cultural Conditions & Protests = 6 parameters:
gdp_growth_%
values_emanc_equality
Hdi
population_25-49_per100
population_50+_per100%
significance of protests
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

19. © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva
Political change under the impact of mass protests in 2010s (DEA, improvements, period 1)
gdp_growth_%
values_emanc_equality
hdi
population_25-49_per100%
population_50+_per100%
significance of protests
brazil
16.49 to 16.49
67 to 67
0.74 to 0.74
37.8 to 37.8
19.5 to 19.5
407 to 407
china
20.1 to
52 to 52
0.7 to 0.7
40.4 to
24.5 to
7268 to 7268
egypt
13.09 to 13.09
25 to 25
0.68 to 0.68
32.6 to 32.6
15.2 to 15.2
1242 to 1242
france
11.46 to 11.46
77.9 to 77.9
0.88 to 0.88
32.9 to 32.9
36.4 to 36.4
4177 to 4177
greece
4.4 to 4.4
84.5 to 84.5
0.87 to 0.87
37 to 37
37.3 to 37.3
4027 to 4027
iceland
6.55 to 6.55
69.5 to 69.5
0.89 to 0.89
34.9 to 34.9
29.5 to 29.5
197 to 197
india
18.75 to 18.75
42 to 42
0.59 to 0.59
34 to 34
16.1 to 16.1
15729 to 15729
morocco
12.52 to 12.52
49 to 49
0.61 to 0.61
35 to 35
17.5 to 17.5
336 to 336
russia
14.46 to
51 to 51
0.78 to
37.2 to
33 to
4655 to
sar
11.52 to 11.52
59 to 59
0.64 to 0.64
33.9 to 33.9
14.7 to 14.7
1572 to 1572
spain
9.55 to 9.55
78 to 78
40.3 to 40.3
1704 to 1704
tunisia
12.46 to 12.46
58 to 58
0.71 to 0.71
37.6 to 37.6
20.4 to 20.4
95 to 95
turkey
17.57 to
0.74 to
36.5 to
19.2 to 19.2
1507 to 1507
ukraine
14.61 to
53 to 53
0.73 to 0.73
36.9 to
35.5 to
1636 to uk
11.12 to 11.12
75.4 to 75.4
0.9 to 0.9
34.8 to 34.8
34.2 to 34.2
802 to 802
usa
11.68 to
72 to 72
0.91 to
34.2 to
32.1 to 32.1
10920 to
italy
11.37 to
68 to 68
35.98 to
40.12 to
1306 to 1306
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

20. © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva
Political change under the impact of mass protests in 2010s (DEA, improvements, period 2)
gdp_growth_%
values_emanc_equality
hdi
population_25-49_per100%
population_50+_per100%
significance of protests
brazil
5.33 to 5.33
70 to 70
0.76 to 0.76
38 to 38
22.5 to 22.5
1512 to 1512
china
16.37 to
53 to 53
0.73 to 0.73
41.2 to
28.2 to
7985 to 7985
egypt
12 to 12
31 to 31
0.69 to 0.69
33.9 to 33.9
15.7 to 15.7
3660 to 3660
france
10.8 to 10.8
77.9 to 77.9
0.89 to 0.89
31.7 to 31.7
38.3 to 38.3
4204 to 4204
greece
10.41 to 10.41
87.4 to
0.87 to 0.87
34.8 to
40.4 to
2727 to
iceland
12.88 to 12.88
82.7 to 82.7
0.9 to 0.9
33.2 to 33.2
32.1 to 32.1
78 to 78
india
16.27 to 16.27
43 to 43
0.61 to 0.61
35.1 to 35.1
17.7 to 17.7
33566 to 33566
morocco
13.11 to 13.11
47 to 47
0.63 to 0.63
35.4 to 35.4
19.7 to 19.7
265 to 265
russia
6.07 to 6.07
0.8 to
37.4 to
35.2 to
7690 to
sar
9.61 to 9.61
55 to 55
0.67 to 0.67
35.6 to 35.6
15.8 to 15.8
2712 to 2712
spain
13.35 to
75 to 75
0.88 to
36.9 to
38.8 to
1015 to 1015
tunisia
9.98 to 9.98
62 to 62
0.72 to 0.72
22.7 to 22.7
516 to 516
turkey
12.46 to 12.46
36.7 to 36.7
21 to 21
3633 to 3633
ukraine
0.46 to 0.46
57 to 57
0.75 to 0.75
37.1 to 37.1
4288 to 4288 uk
11.4 to 11.4
75.8 to 75.8
0.91 to 0.91
33.6 to 33.6
36.2 to 36.2
1131 to 1131
usa
11.79 to 11.79
76 to 76
0.92 to 0.92
32.7 to 32.7
34.7 to 34.7
12528 to 12528
italy
10.71 to 10.71
81 to 81
33.4 to 33.4
43.3 to 43.3
946 to 946
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

21. © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva
Political change under the impact of mass protests in 2010s (DEA, referents/peer countries)
Period 1
Period 2
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

22. © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva
Political change under the impact of mass protests in 2010s (DEA, referents/peer countries)
Period 1
Period 2
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

23. © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva
Work in progress
Why 18? To increase the number of cases to all countries, where protests happened during the 2000s: ‘color revolutions’, ‘anti-austerity movement’, ‘Arab Spring’, ‘Occupy’; and other countries, where there were no any protests, as a control group
Why 56? To deal with Q&G dataset to choose more relevant parameters by using statistical methods to choose
What about original theory? To add more parameters about protests, protest publics and actors of change (as supposed by original theoretical model)
DEA? Use non-parametric statistical analysis on order to test the protest publics’ input weight and compare with other factors and actors of change
SNR? Perform network analysis to find reference country
photo
photo
Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva
© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

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