1. The Long War Reporting on The Long War Afghanistan Pakistan
The Predator War
Iraq
Threats to the West
Beyond Afghanistan and Iraq

2. Reporting on The Long War
Origin of term
About The Long War Journal
Embedding
Sebastian Junger: “Journalistic convention hold that you can't write objectively about people you are close to, but you can't write objectively about people who are shooting at you either. Pure objectivity—difficult enough while covering a city council meeting— isn't remotely possible in a war;bonding with the men around you is the least of your problems. Objectivity and honesty are not the same thing, though and it is entirely possible to write with honesty about the very personal and distorting experiences of war.
Not about good vs bad news, but accurate
Conflicts in reporting (Mosul)

3. Afghanistan US/NATO was not prepared for insurgency
US focus was on CT operations
No Afghan partner
Taliban established Shadow Governments
Insurgency spread
The “surge” & time
Al Qaeda's presence
Afghanistan is a sideshow to Pakistan

4. Pakistan Tribal areas bases for al Qaeda, Afghan & Pakistani Taliban
Pakistan's peace deals
2009: Taliban advance to within 60 miles of Islamabad
Good vs Bad Taliban
Strategic Depth
US trying to pressure Pakistan to move again North Waziristan, problem is far bigger
Display map of tribal areas, Taliban control, note operations in N & S Waziristan, , Bajaur and Mohmand , Khyber & Peshawar , S Waziristan , No op in N Waziristan.
- Strategic depth, hedging against US leaving region, influence in Afghanistan, India
- Note how a Corps commander in 2008 called Taliban "patriots" after 2008 Mumbai, and Taliban pledged to fight India
- ISI/military complicity
- NATO dependent on Pakistan for supplies, "influence"

5. Predators, a Tactic, Not a Strategy
Three targets: Leaders, External ops, and Afghan groups
Pros:
Thins leaders, forces inexperienced to take command
Plan for survival, not operations
Cons:
Increases OPSEC
Puts allies at risk
Civilian backlash
No substitute for holding ground
Al Qaeda still plotting despite Predator strikes
- Aimed at AQ leaders, allied groups, and external ops
- Succeeds in thinning the leadership, forcing early promotion
- Also succeeds in forcing AQ to adjust energy on survival, not ops
- But, as explained, AQ has a deep bench
- Air power cannot substitute holding groups
- As long as Pakistan clings to strategic depth (and worse, support of use of terrorism as foreign policy tool) the problem will not go away

6. Iraq The surge worked Iraqis have rejected al Qaeda, Mahdi Army
Security forces are good enough to keep lid on internal threat
Iran continues to attempt to extend influence
Failure to form government hasn't fractured Iraq
Still a long way to go, cannot judge succes for a decade or more
- Aimed at AQ leaders, allied groups, and external ops
- Succeeds in thinning the leadership, forcing early promotion
- Also succeeds in forcing AQ to adjust energy on survival, not ops
- But, as explained, AQ has a deep bench
- Air power cannot substitute holding groups
- As long as Pakistan clings to strategic depth (and worse, support of use of terrorism as foreign policy tool) the problem will not go away

7. The Threat to the West
Al Qaeda's External Operations Network based in FATA
Plots against West, India traced to FATA
London Tubes
2006 Transatlantic airline plot
Times Square
Europe plot
Al Qaeda affiliates are used as “bench”

8. Beyond Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq
Al Qaeda affiliates seek to hit the US
Yemen
Somalia
North Africa
Southeast Asia
Caucasus