1. The Decision-making Process
Thoughts, Ideas and Practice

2. Definitions Choice about a “course of action” -- Simon
Choice leading to “a certain desired objective”
-- Churchman
Knowledge indicating the nature of a commitment to action
-- Holsapple and Whinston

3. Example
A farmer with his wolf, goat, and cabbage come to the edge of a river they wish to cross. There is a boat at the river’s edge, but of course, only the farmer can row. The boat can only handle one animal/item in addition to the farmer. If the wolf is ever left alone with the goat, the wolf will eat the goat. If the goat is left alone with the cabbage, the goat will eat the cabbage. What should the farmer do to get across the river with all his possessions?

4. Decision-making
As defined by Baker et al in their study, “efficient decision-making involves a series of steps that require the input of information at different stages of the process, as well as a process for feedback”.

5. Decisions
Made up of a composite of information, data, facts and belief.
Data by itself does not constitute useful information unless it is analyzed and processed.

6. A Decision Is only as good as the data that informed it
Is only as good as it is an informed one
Is only as good as the system which exists to implement
Is only good if you have the means to implement it
Is only good if other people understand it and what it means

7. The Ideal Decision-making Process
STEP 1
Define the problem
STEP 2
Determine the requirements that the solution to the problem must meet
STEP 3
Establish goals that solving the problem should accomplish
STEP 4
Identify alternatives that will solve the problem
STEP 5
Develop valuation criteria based on the goals
STEP 6
Select a decision-making Tool
STEP 7
Apply the tool to select a
preferred alternative
STEP 8
Check the answer
to make sure it
solves the problem
The Decision-making Process (adapted from Baker et al, 2001)

8. The Reality
Is the Problem really the problem? Problems are often the symptom and not the true problem.
Most often that not steps 5-8 are either forgotten, avoided or simply ignored.
Urgency – is there a quick version?
Who has time to follow-up? Tomorrow is another problem.