1. BLUEPRINTS for Sustainable Territorial Development
18/05/2018
The ‘Foresight Bridge’ Initiative
The ForeTech Project
6 July 2004
Progress since Ioannina Patrick Crehan Crehan, Kusano & Associates Brussels, Belgium
Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004
'Agriblue'

2. Ioannina as part of a Foresight ‘Thread’
BLUEPRINTS for Sustainable Territorial Development
18/05/2018
Ioannina as part of a Foresight ‘Thread’
Irish Presidency Meeting in Dublin - 14 & 15 June – Sustainable Spatial Development
The ‘Blueprints’ Initiative
- AGRIBLUE –
Sustainable Territorial Development
Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004
'Agriblue'

3. BLUEPRINTS for Sustainable Territorial Development
18/05/2018
The Future of Rural Economies
Change at EU level is being driven by …
A general perception of the unsustainability of the Acquis Communautaire,
Rapid progress with Accession,
Reform of the CAP,
WTO recognition of ‘multi-functionality’,
Reform of the Structural Funds.
This calls for a response at regional levels in terms of …
A renewal of awareness and debate among policy makers on policy options,
Greater involvement of stakeholders as ultimate agents of change,
Shared visions of a European Model of Agriculture in EU25+,
Shared visions of how RTD + Innovation Policy in the ERA can contribute to this,
Alignment between policy for the ERA and the European Model of Agriculture,
Consistency between the multi-functional view of agriculture and the way in which farmers are compensated for what they do.
What role can foresight and related tools play?
The role of the ‘Blueprint’ is to clarify this question!
Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004
'Agriblue'

4. BLUEPRINTS for Sustainable Territorial Development
18/05/2018
Istanbul - Three Interlinked Themes 3%
The Lisbon & Barcelona Objectives
Biotechnology
Food Cheap, safe & healthy commodities
Organics
Nutraceuticals & Probiotics
Agricultural produce Crops for fibers, energy & other economic inputs
Abandonment
Social, Environmental & Economic impacts
(What happened to coal-mines, cotton mills and other industries is happening in rural areas right now)
Multi-functionality
A re-visioning of the nature of work in rural areas, and of the value that this creates for society as a whole
(An explicit linking of agricultural activity with the sustainability of modern knowledge based economies)
New, knowledge based, professional farming practice
Options for the future
Change Management!
... financing all of the above!
The Gothenburg Objective
Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004
'Agriblue'

5. BLUEPRINTS for Sustainable Territorial Development
The ‘Convergence’ Challenge
18/05/2018
This is the
EU convergence
Challenge!
What role
will the regions
play?
Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004
'Agriblue'

6. BLUEPRINTS for Sustainable Territorial Development
The Evolving ‘Thread’
BLUEPRINTS for Sustainable Territorial Development
18/05/2018
Ioannina: Focus on abandonment and on the the interaction between economic, social and environmental issues triggered by changes in land usage ...
Riga: A deeper exploration of issues in particular of the meaning of multi-functionality …
Istanbul: The discovery of the convergence challenge …
Dublin
A ‘planners’ perspective,
A vision of how ‘ministries’ can improve …
AGRIBLUE
Oldenburg Leveling up with detailed knowledge of the challenges faced by rural regions from regions of France, Finland, Poland, UK, Germany, Ireland, Hungary …
Galway Discovery of the governance challenge, a maturity model for sustainable governance new forms of knowledge, and a schema for ‘sustainable territorial development’ …
Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004
'Agriblue'

7. ‘Agriculture’ versus ‘Rural Economies’
BLUEPRINTS for Sustainable Territorial Development
18/05/2018
‘Agriculture’ versus ‘Rural Economies’
A: The most salient feature of rural areas is LAND a limited natural resource with an economic, environmental and social role:
B: Rural areas can be decomposed as follows into areas that are experiencing:
1: Intensification
2: Extensification
3: Abandonment of agricultural activity
Patterns of land-usage change in time and are subject to sudden shocks brought about by major political & trade issues as well as drift due to demographic and life-style changes.
C: It is highly unlikely that SUSTAINABILITY in economic, environmental and social terms can be achieved at all scales on the basis of conventional market mechanisms.
Alternative mechanisms for economic redistribution of will be required to achieve sustainability. BALANCED and sustainable development will only be achieved on the basis of a knowledge based approach to the development of competitive knowledge driven rural economies.
Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004
'Agriblue'

8. BLUEPRINTS for Sustainable Territorial Development
The Blueprints Process
18/05/2018
- Brussels
- Oldenburg
- Galway
Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004
'Agriblue'

9. BLUEPRINTS for Sustainable Territorial Development
Foresight Schema for Sustainable Territorial Development
BLUEPRINTS for Sustainable Territorial Development
18/05/2018
Barcelona 2010
Gothenburg 2030
Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004
'Agriblue'

10. Foresight as a Knowledge Creating Process
3 Essential Inputs
3 Essential outputs
Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004

11. BLUEPRINTS for Sustainable Territorial Development
The Regional Governance Challenge
18/05/2018
… for a redistribution of resources that ensures the global sustainability of the system
Flows of
Knowledge …
… for Knowledge-Driven Policy
Flows of
finance …
Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004
'Agriblue'

12. BLUEPRINTS for Sustainable Territorial Development
A ‘Maturity Model’ for the Governance of Rural Regions
18/05/2018
1) Addresses Immediate Needs Arising from the
Impact of CAP Reform,
Shock of Accession,
Global Competition …
2) Manages longer term structural change processes
Demographics,
Diversification of rural economies,
Development of appropriate Knowledge Infrastructures …
3) Establishes a governance of ‘renewal’ that
recognizes universally accepted principles of sustainable development
balances economic, social & environmental goals,
supports renewal via self-organization,
manages new ‘social’ contracts,
ensures the production of knowledge for sustainable policy development
Barcelona – 3%
The Gothenburg Agenda ‘Sustainable’ Europe
Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004
'Agriblue'