1. ECASA Modelling Workshop
Models, Model Systems and Procedures EcoWin2000 and ASSETS Ecasa Meeting 4 Oban, Scotland
J.G.Ferreira
A. Sequeira
January 2006

2. Topics Model descriptions 4 Scales of application
State of implementation
Scientific testing, application to mariculture
Indicators, EQOs
Synthesis 4 6 6
Slides 5 4 1
26+2
Guincho, Portugal

3. EcoWin2000 – A Brief Introduction
Object-oriented Modelling
Architecture of EcoWin2000
Building a new model
Data handling
Combining models
Applications
This presentation is live at

4. Object-oriented Modelling
Primary
Producer
Noun: Biomass
Verb: Produce
Origins are in object-oriented
programming (OOP)
Objects have attributes (variables)
and methods (functions)
Objects have specific behaviour
Inheritance
Encapsulation
Modularity
Re-usability
Polymorphism
Phytoplankton
Noun: One-cell organism
Verb: Float
Dinoflagellate
Noun: Saxitoxin
Verb: “Swim”

5. EcoWin2000 Attributes, active and passive methods for some objects
Object Sample attributes* Typical active methods Typical passive methods
Transport Salt Advection-diffusion -
Dissolved Forms of DIN, PO43-, Nitrification, formation Mineralization of detritus,
substances SiO2, D.O. of particulates exudation
Phytoplankton Phytoplankton, Production, respiration, Grazing by zooplankton,
toxic algae senescence, exsudation, fish, benthic
production of toxins filter-feeders
Phytobenthos Microalgae and Production, respiration, Grazing by animals
macroalgae, senescence harvesting of seaweeds
salt marsh flora
Zooplankton Zooplankton, Eat (& slop), grow, Predation: other objects
copepods reproduce, excrete, and within the object
natural mortality, swim
Zoobenthos Filter-feeders, Filter, grow, Fisheries, predation by
deposit-feeders accumulate metals several other objects
Nekton Fish, large Hunt (including select), Fisheries, hunting by
invertebrates grow, reproduce, birds, infection
(e.g. Sepia) excrete, natural mortality,
swim, migrate

6. EcoWin2000 Public methods common to all EcoWin objects containing state variables
Name Interaction with Role of the method
Constructor Shell, common General initialisation of the object
ancestor to all objects
Destructor Shell Destruction of the object
Turnon Shell Asks an object for the names of its
state variables; Used for shell
Go Shell, private methods Invoked every timestep; Responsible
and attributes for accessing private section of the
object where calculations take place
Communicate Shell and other objects Used by other objects to enquire
about state variable values
Balance Other objects, private Contact channel with other objects,
methods and attributes whose active methods alter
properties of an object
Integrate Shell, other objects Calls an integration routine within
the ancestor object, requests
transportation to the transport object

7. Data handling ~ 140,000 results Physico-Chemical Temperature
Salinity & conductivity
Light extinction
Dissolved oxygen
Suspended matter
POM, POC
Nutrients (N, P, Si)
Biological
Chlorophyll a & Phaeopigments
Phytoplankton species
Benthic invertebrate fauna
SAV
Macroalgae
Lough
Stations
Samples
Parameters
Results
Foyle 42
3284
105
23673
Larne 7 84 13
814
Belfast 63
7514 78
40565
Strangford 22
3043 98
19992
Carlingford
113
4912
273
34171
BarcaWin2000 software
~ 140,000 results

8. GIS Bathymetric data from soundings, coastline and other contours
Bathymetric raster data at 25m spatial resolution
Information on:
Sampling stations
Aquaculture sites
LARNE
FOYLE
STRANGFORD
GIS
CARLINGFORD
BELFAST

9. GIS - Criteria for ecosystem division into EcoWin2000 model boxes
Physical data
Homogenous physical conditions for
Morphology
Currents
Vertical stratification
Water bodies defined for Water Framework Directive (WFD) implementation
Due to management requirements for EQS, water body boundaries should fit model box limits
Aquaculture sites
When possible include aquaculture areas into boxes (rather than across boxes)
Strangford Lough box layout

10. Model coupling: Spatial aggregation
Delft3D
Hydrodynamic model
EcoWin2000
ecological model
34 boxes
2 layers
320 boxes
8 s layers

11. Model results: Residence time
Water residence time
e.g. e-folding: time for the concentration in a box to be reduced to a factor of 1/e, i.e. from an initial concentration of 100% to a concentration of about 37%
Delft3D model
EcoWin2000 model
Surface
Bottom
Winter N
Box 14/31
Inner boxes
Box 8/25
Inner boxes
1/e
Surface
Bottom
Summer
Box 2/19
Outer boxes
Residence time: 4 to 28 days
Residence time: 4-18 days

12. Aquaculture in Sanggou Bay

13. Modelling ecosystem carrying capacity with E2K
10 objects, including kelp, oysters and scallops and man
Individual growth and demographic distribution for
oysters and scallops, using multiple inheritance
About 40 state variables, not including derived variables
Mass fluxes only are considered at ocean interface
6 year runtime (2190 days), with one hour timestep (takes about 2 minutes to run on a Pentium IV)
Deposition
Phytoplankton
Shellfish
Detritus
Uptake
Mortality
Filtration
Egestion
Temperature
Turbidity
Light
Kelp
Tidal exchange
Mass Flux
Influence
Mineralization
Seeding
Harvest
Man
Nutrients
EcoWin2000 modelling platform, full coupled model.
Nunes et al, A model for sustainable management of shellfish polyculture in coastal bays. Aquaculture, 219/1-4,

14. Chinese scallop individual growth under different conditions
EcoWin 2000 – Sanggou Bay model
Chinese scallop individual growth under different conditions
Single individual, all alone in the bay...
Single individual, standard model 93-94
Single individual,
10X seeding rate,
Model 93-94

15. EcoWin2000 model - Sanggou Bay
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Simulated
harvest
56500
18400
Scallops
Oysters
60000 t y-1
Fisheries
estimate
Official
data
24000 t y-1
42800 t y-1
13000 t y-1
Ton TFW y-1
Run conditions: 6 year run with 1h timestep, values for year 6, ten objects active

16. Comparison between standard model and scenario Phytoplankton
Phytoplankton concentration in the bay
Phytoplankton mass balance

17. EcoWin2000 references
2006
1995
A. Franco, J.G. Ferreira, A.M.Nobre, Development of a growth model for penaeid shrimp. Aquaculture, In Review .
A.M.Nobre, J.G.Ferreira, A.Newton, T.Simas, J.D.Icely, R.Neves, Management of coastal eutrophication: Integration of field data, ecosystem-scale simulations and screening models. Journal of Marine Systems, 56 (3/4),
Alvera-Azcarate, A., Ferreira, J.G., & Nunes, J.P., Modelling eutrophication in mesotidal and macrotidal estuaries. The role of intertidal seaweeds. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 57(4),
Nunes, J.P, Ferreira, J.G., Gazeau, F., Lencart-Silva, J., Zhang, X.L, Zhu M.Y. & Fang J.G., A model for sustainable management of shellfish polyculture in coastal bays. Aquaculture, 219/1-4,
Simas, T., Nunes, J.P. & Ferreira, J.G., Effects of global climate change on coastal salt marshes. Ecological Modelling. 139 (1), 1-15.
Monvoisin, G., Bolito, C. & Ferreira, J.G., Fish dynamics in a coastal food chain, simulation and analysis. Oceanography of the Iberian Continental Margin. Boletin Instituto Español de Oceanografía Nº15 (1-4)
Ferreira, J.G., Duarte, P. and Ball, B., Trophic Capacity of Carlingford Lough for Aquaculture - Analysis by Ecological Modelling. Aquatic Ecology Vol. 31, 4,
Ferreira, J.G., EcoWin - An object-oriented ecological model for aquatic ecosystems. Ecol. Modelling, 79,

18. Synthesis (E2K)
EcoWin2000 was presented as a research model which may be used in ECASA for carrying capacity;
E2k uses a range of equations depending on the application requirements, and can resolve hydrodynamics, biogeochemistry and population dynamics for target species – it is being used for carrying capacity assessment in SPEAR, SMILE, KEYZONES and ECASA;
EcoWin2000 may be used as a research model to examine nutrient loading and aquaculture development scenarios – the results are used to drive screening models such as ASSETS to inform management;
E2K has been extensively tested, and is a potentially valuable tool for informing an ecosystem approach to sustainable aquaculture development.

19. Coastal eutrophication Pressure-State-Response
Drivers
Agriculture – loss of fertilizer, etc
Urban and industrial discharges
Aquaculture
Atmospheric deposition
Internal (secondary) sources (e.g. P from sediments)
Advection from offshore (e.g. N and P, certain types of HAB)
Coastal eutrophication Pressure-State-Response
Pressure
N and P loading to the coastal system
HAB phytoplankton “loading” from offshore
State
Primary symptoms
Decreased light availability
Increased organic decomposition
Algal dominance changes
Secondary symptoms
Loss of SAV
Low dissolved oxygen
Harmful algae
Response
Fertilizer reduction
WWTP (sewage, industry)
Emmission controls
Sediment dredging etc
Time...
Interdiction (e.g. HAB events)

20. ASSETS – Conceptual Model

21. ASSETS - Assessment of State
Overall level of expression of eutrophic conditions 1 1
MODERATE HIGH
MODERATE HIGH
MODERATE
MODERATE
Primary symptoms high
Primary symptoms high
HIGH
High primary and
secondary symptom
eutrophication
problems
Primary symptoms high
Primary symptoms high
and substantial
and substantial
High primary
High primary
symptoms
symptoms
but problems with more
but problems with more
secondary symptoms
secondary symptoms
serious secondary
serious secondary
becoming more
becoming more
levels indicate serious
levels indicate serious
symptoms still not being
symptoms still not being
expressed, indicating
expressed, indicating
expressed
expressed
potentially serious
potentially serious
problems
problems
0.6
0.6
MODERATE LOW
MODERATE LOW
HIGH
Substantial levels of
eutrophic
conditions
occuring
with secondary
symptoms indicating
serious problems
Primary symptoms
Primary symptoms
MODERATE
MODERATE
beginning to indicate
beginning to indicate
Level of expression of
Level of expression of
Moderate primary
Moderate primary
symptoms
symptoms
possible problems
possible problems
eutrophic
eutrophic
conditions is
conditions is
but still very few
but still very few
substantial
substantial
secondary symptoms
secondary symptoms
expressed
expressed
0.3
0.3
MODERATE HIGH
High secondary
symptoms indicate
serious problems, but
low primary indicates
other factors may also
be involved in causing
conditions
factors may be involved
MODERATE LOW
Moderate secondary
symptoms indicate
substantial
eutrophic
conditions, but low
primary indicates other
LOW
LOW
Low primary
Low primary
symptoms
symptoms
Level of expression of
Level of expression of
eutrophic
eutrophic
conditions is
conditions is
minimal
minimal
in causing the conditions
in causing the conditions
conditions
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.6 1 1
Low secondary
Low secondary
Moderate secondary
Moderate secondary
High secondary
High secondary
symptoms
symptoms
symptoms
symptoms
symptoms
symptoms

22. ASSETS classification of state http://www.eutro.org Boston harbour

23. Strangford Lough – ASSETS Application
ASSETS: HIGH
Indices
Overall Human Influence (OHI)
ASSETS: 5
Overall Eutrophic Condition (OEC)
Determination of Future Outlook (DFO)
ASSETS: 4
Methods
Susceptibility
Nutrient inputs
Primary
Secondary
Future nutrient pressures
Parameters Rating Expression
Dilution potential High Low
susceptibility
Flushing potential Moderate
Low
Chlorophyll a Moderate
Moderate
Macroalgae Problems
observed
Dissolved Oxygen No problems
Submerged Aquatic Losses
Vegetation observed Low
Nuisance and Toxic No
Blooms
Future nutrient pressures decrease
Index
Low
LOW
Improve Low

24. ASSETS: Four Chinese Systems
Sanggou
Jiaozhou
Changjiang
Huangdun
ASSETS: HIGH
ASSETS: GOOD
ASSETS: BAD
ASSETS: POOR
Indices
Overall Human Influence (OHI)
Overall Eutrophic Condition
(OEC)
Determination
of Future Outlook
(DFO)
LOW
MODERATE
HIGH
HIGH
LOW
LOW
HIGH
MODERATE NO
CHANGE
IMPROVE
LOW
WORSEN HIGH
WORSEN
HIGH
Population (X 103) 200 4, ,
Loading (tN y-1) ,997 1,600,
Watershed Rural Urban Heavily populated Rural
characteristics
Other influences Aquaculture Aquaculture, sewage, Sewage, industry, Aquaculture
shipping, recreation shipping
Management: GEF/UNEP Yellow Sea Large Marine Ecosystem ( China Blue Sea Action Plan, Total Load Control Plan (in development), particularly hotspots (e.g. Changjiang)

25. Field data Research model Model green scenario
ASSETS Model
Overall Eutrophic Condition (OEC)
ASSETS OEC: 4
ASSETS OEC:
Methods
PSM
SSM
Parameters Value Level of expression
Chlorophyll a 0.25
Epiphytes
Macroalgae 0.96 Moderate
Dissolved Oxygen 0
Submerged Aquatic
Vegetation Low
Nuisance and Toxic 0
Blooms
Epiphytes
Macroalgae 1.00 Moderate
Epiphytes
Macroalgae 0.50 Moderate
Index
MODERATE LOW
MODERATE
LOW
Field data
Research model
28% lower
Model green scenario
4(5)

26. ASSETS classification of state

27. ASSETS systems and grades

28. ASSETS references
2006
2000
J.G. Ferreira, S.B. Bricker, T.C. Simas, Application and sensitivity testing of an eutrophication assessment method on coastal systems in the United States and European Union. J. Environmental Management, In Press.
J. G. Ferreira, A. M. Nobre, T. C. Simas, M. C. Silva, A. Newton, S. B. Bricker, W. J. Wolff, P.E. Stacey, A. Sequeira, A methodology for defining homogeneous water bodies in estuaries – Application to the transitional systems of the EU Water Framework Directive. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 66 (3/4),
J.G.Ferreira, W.J.Wolff, T.C.Simas, S.B.Bricker, Does biodiversity of estuarine phytoplankton depend on hydrology? Ecological Modelling, 187(4)
A.M.Nobre, J.G.Ferreira, A.Newton, T.Simas, J.D.Icely, R.Neves, Management of coastal eutrophication: Integration of field data, ecosystem-scale simulations and screening models. Journal of Marine Systems, 56 (3/4),
Newton, A., Icely, J.D., Falcão, M., Nobre, A., Nunes, J.P., Ferreira, J.G., Vale, C., Evaluation of Eutrophication in the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon, Portugal. Continental Shelf Research, 23,
Bricker, S.B., J.G. Ferreira, T. Simas, An Integrated Methodology for Assessment of Estuarine Trophic Status. Ecological Modelling, 169(1),
Ferreira, J.G., Development of an estuarine quality index based on key physical and biogeochemical features. Ocean & Coastal Management, 43/1,

29. Synthesis
An overview of two types of models which may be used in ECASA was presented: EcoWin2000 as a research model for carrying capacity and ASSETS as a screening model for eutrophication assessment;
E2k uses a range of equations depending on the application requirements, and can resolve hydrodynamics, biogeochemistry and population dynamics for target species – it is being used for carrying capacity assessment in SPEAR, SMILE, KEYZONES and ECASA;
ASSETS is a highly aggregated model for eutrophication assessment, and has been applied in many parts of the world. It is based on a PSR framework, and has been proposed as a WFD-compliant methodology for EQS evaluation;
EcoWin2000 may be used as a research model to examine nutrient loading and aquaculture development scenarios – the results are used to drive screening models such as ASSETS to inform management. This has been done for the Ria Formosa in the OAERRE project, and is currently being applied elsewhere;
Both models have been extensively tested, and are potentially valuable tools for informing an ecosystem approach to sustainable aquaculture development;
Recall the old “ black swan” aphorism: “All models are wrong. Some are useful” .