1. Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation.
comments questions:
papers, etc:

2.
“Fake News,” “Alternative Facts,” and the Science Communication Environment
Dan M. Kahan
Yale University
& many x 103 others

3. Fake news . . .

4. . . . the “alternative facts” presidency

5. The passive aggregator model: misinformation supply
Theories of misinformation and mass opinion formation
The passive aggregator model:
Politically/Eco- nomically motivated
interest groups
misinformation supply
Credulous
Public

6. Theories of misinformation and mass opinion formation
The passive aggregator model:
Politically/Eco- nomically motivated
interest groups
misinformation supply
Credulous
Public
The motivated-public
model:
demand for misinformation
Culturally
Motivated
Public
Opportunistic
Misinformers

7. Fake news . . .

8. Theories of misinformation and mass opinion formation
The passive aggregator model:
Politically/Eco- nomically motivated
interest groups
misinformation supply
Credulous
Public
The motivated-public
model:
demand for misinformation
Culturally
Motivated
Public
toxic memes
Opportunistic
Misinformers

10. “Skin cream experiment”

11. “Skin cream experiment”

12. Covariance & Numeracy
Derived via logistic regression. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.

13. “Gun ban experiment”

14. Four conditions

15. Correct interpretation of data
Liberal Democrats (< 0 on Conservrepub)
Conserv Republicans (> 0 on Conservrepub)
skin treatment
Numeracy score
Gun ban
Numeracy score

16. Correct interpretation of data
Liberal Democrats (< 0 on Conservrepub)
Conserv Republicans (> 0 on Conservrepub)
skin treatment
Numeracy score
Gun ban
Numeracy score

17. Best fitting regression model for experiment results
rash_decrease
0.40
(1.57)
rash increase
0.06
(0.22)
crime increase
1.07
(4.02)
z_numeracy
-0.01
(-0.05)
z_numeracy_x_rash_decrease
0.55
(2.29)
z_numeracy_x_rash_increase
0.23
(1.05)
z_numeracy_x_crime_increase
0.46
(2.01)
z_numeracy2
0.31
(2.46)
z_numeracy2_x_rash_decrease
0.02
(0.14)
z_numeracy2_x_rash_increase
-0.07
(-0.39)
z_numeracy2_x_crime_increase
-0.31
(-1.75)
Conserv_Repub
-0.64
(-3.95)
Conserv_Repub_x_rash_decrease
0.56
(2.64)
Conserv_Repub_x_rash_increase
1.28
(6.02)
Conserv_Repub_x_crime_increase
0.63
(2.82)
z_numeracy_x_Conserv_repub
-0.33
(-1.89)
z_nuneracy_x_Conserv_Repub_x_rash_decrease
0.33
(1.40)
z_nuneracy_x__x_rash_increase
0.54
(2.17)
z_nuneracy_x__x_crime_increase
0.26
(1.08)
_constant
-0.96
(-4.70)
N = Outcome variable is “Correct” (0 = incorrect interpretation of data, 1 = correct interpretation). Predictor estimates are logit coefficients with z-test statistic indicated parenthetically. Experimental assignment predictors—rash_decrease, rash_increase, and crime_increase—are dummy variables (0 = unassigned, 1 = assigned—with assignment to “crime decreases” as the comparison condition. Z_numeracy and Conserv_Repub are centered at 0 for ease of interpretation. Bolded typeface indicates predictor coefficient is significant at p < 0.05.

18. Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
Low numeracy
High numeracy
rash increases
skin treatment
rash increases 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
crime increases
80%
90%
100%
crime decreases
Gun ban
crime increases
crime decreases 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
probabilility of correct interpretation of data

19. Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
Low numeracy
High numeracy
rash increases
rash increases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash decrease
rash decreases
rash increases
rash increases
skin treatment 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
crime increases
80%
90%
100%
crime decreases
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
Gun ban
crime increases
crime decreases 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
probabilility of correct interpretation of data

20. Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
Low numeracy
High numeracy
rash increases
rash increases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash increases
rash increases
skin treatment 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
crime increases
80%
90%
100%
crime decreases
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
Gun ban
crime increases
crime decreases 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
probabilility of correct interpretation of data

21. Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
Low numeracy
High numeracy
rash increases
rash increases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash increases
rash increases
skin treatment 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
crime increases
80%
90%
100%
crime decreases
crime increases
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
Gun ban
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
probabilility of correct interpretation of data

22. Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
Low numeracy
High numeracy
rash increases
rash increases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash increases
rash increases
skin treatment 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
crime increases
80%
90%
100%
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime increases
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime decreases
Gun ban
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
probabilility of correct interpretation of data

23. Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
Low numeracy
High numeracy
rash increases
rash increases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash increases
rash increases
skin treatment 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
crime increases
80%
90%
100%
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime increases
crime increases
crime increases
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime decreases
Gun ban
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
probabilility of correct interpretation of data

24. Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
Low numeracy
High numeracy
rash increases
rash increases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash increases
rash increases
skin treatment 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
crime increases
80%
90%
100%
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime increases
crime increases
crime increases
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime decreases
Gun ban
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
probabilility of correct interpretation of data

25. Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
Low numeracy
High numeracy
Avg. “polarization”
on crime data
for low numeracy
partisans
25% (± 9%)
Avg. “polarization”
on crime data
for high numeracy
partisans
46% (± 17%)
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime increases
crime increases
crime increases
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime decreases
Gun ban
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
probabilility of correct interpretation of data

26. r = -0.65, p < 0.01
Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, N = 1800

27. r = -0.65, p < 0.01
Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, N = 1800

28. r = -0.65, p < 0.01
r = -0.65, p < 0.01
Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, N = 1800

29. Private gun possession Conservative Republican
Extremely high
risk
Liberal Democrat
Liberal Democrat
Conserv Republican
Conservative Republican
None at all
1st percentile
50th percentile
99th percentile
Ordinary science intelligence
shaded areas denote 0.95 CIs.

30. Fracking Ordinary science intelligence Extremely high risk None at all
1st percentile
50th percentile
99th percentile
Ordinary science intelligence
shaded areas denote 0.95 CIs.

31. Global Warming Ordinary science intelligence Extremely high risk
None at all
1st percentile
50th percentile
99th percentile
Ordinary science intelligence
shaded areas denote 0.95 CIs.

32. Theories of misinformation and mass opinion formation
The passive aggregator model:
Politically/Eco- nomically motivated
interest groups
misinformation supply
Credulous
Public
The motivated-public
model:
demand for misinformation
Culturally
Motivated
Public
Opportunistic
Misinformers

33. Factual polarization:
Global warming
Private gun ownership
Fracking
Global warming
Private gun ownership
Fracking

34. Factual polarization: not too little rationality
Global warming
Private gun ownership
Fracking
Global warming
Private gun ownership
Fracking

35. Factual polarization: not too little rationality but too much
Global warming
Private gun ownership
Fracking
Global warming
Private gun ownership
Fracking

36. Theories of misinformation and mass opinion formation
The passive aggregator model:
Politically/Eco- nomically motivated
interest groups
misinformation supply
Credulous
Public
The motivated-public
model:
demand for misinformation
Culturally
Motivated
Public
Opportunistic
Misinformers

37. Factual polarization Global warming Private gun ownership Fracking

38. Factual polarization Global warming Private gun ownership Fracking

39. Factual polarization is not normal
Global warming
Private gun ownership
Fracking
Global warming
Private gun ownership
Fracking

40. Factual polarization is not normal
Global warming
Private gun ownership
Fracking
Medical x-ray
Flouridation
Raw Milk
Synthetic beef hormones
GM Foods
Nanotechnology

41. Factual polarization is not normal
Global warming
Private gun ownership
Fracking
Medical x-ray
Flouridation
Raw Milk
Synthetic beef hormones
GM Foods
Nanotechnology

42. Factual polarization is pathological
Global warming
Private gun ownership
Fracking
Global warming
Private gun ownership
Fracking

43. Theories of misinformation and mass opinion formation
The passive aggregator model:
Politically/Eco- nomically motivated
interest groups
misinformation supply
Credulous
Public
The motivated-public
alternative:
toxic
memes
demand for misinformation
Culturally
Motivated
Public
Opportunistic
Misinformers

45. Toxic memes, Zika virus . . .

46. misinformation supply demand for misinformation
Theories of misinformation and mass opinion formation
The standard
view:
Politically/Eco- nomically motivated
interest groups
misinformation supply
Credulous
Public
The motivated-public
model:
demand for misinformation
toxic
memes
Culturally
Motivated
Public
Opportunistic
Misinformers

47. Trump as toxic meme propagator

48. Factual polarization is not normal
Global warming
Private gun ownership
Fracking
Medical x-ray
Fluoridation
Raw Milk
Synthetic beef hormones
GM Foods
Nanotechnology

49. Factual polarization is not normal
Global warming
Private gun ownership
Fracking
Medical x-ray
Fluoridation
Raw Milk
Synthetic beef hormones
GM Foods
Nanotechnology

50. Trump as toxic meme propagator

51. . . . the “alternative facts” presidency & the rope-a-dope dilemma

54. Toxic memes, Zika virus . . .

55. www. culturalcognition.net
“I am you!” 55