1. Presentation at New Mexico Renewable Energy Industries Association
ENERGY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT DIVISION
STATE of SOLAR in
NEW MEXICO
MARK GAISER
BSEE, MBA
Presentation at New Mexico Renewable Energy Industries Association
Funding provided by the US Department of Energy / State Energy Program Award DE-EE
Dec. 8, 2016

2. SOLAR ENERGY Soho Spacecraft
The Soho spacecraft has been imaging the sun for twenty years – operating continuously on solar power. The small plasma loop on the lower right side of the sun could contain several earth-size objects.
SOHO Magnetogram 24 September Mission Day: DOY: 267
Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

3. Fusion Power Converters For Sale
Inexpensive
Ubiquitous
Minimal Maintenance Required
Energy Delivered Daily to Your Location
No Advanced Degree Required to Operate Converter
On Sale at Locations Statewide
“Cheaper Energy than Fission or Coal”
 FINE PRINT 
Forward looking statements presented during this presentation are subject to change and should not be relied upon as guidance in any financial transaction.
Companies, Products, or Services mentioned in this briefing or listed in this presentation are not to be considered endorsements by myself or by the State of New Mexico.
Opinions expressed are my own and do not represent positions or thoughts of the State of New Mexico.

4. What I will address today
NM Solar Market Development Tax Credit for PV and ST (solar thermal)
Grid Parity
Growth Projections
Business Models
New Efforts and Future Directions

5. NM Residential Solar Tax Credit
New Mexico Solar Market Development Tax Credit was established in for individual taxpayers. Revised in 2008 with an end date of 2016.
Tax Credit of $3 million for PV, $2 million for solar thermal (hot water & space heating) per tax year, through 2016.
Tax Credit of 10% per system, with a maximum of $9, per system, per year.
Two attempts to extend this state tax credit beyond 2016.
Solar system equipment and installation costs are exempt from GRT enacted in One attempt to cancel this exemption in 2016.
Parallel Federal Tax Law of 30% tax credit per location for the years through 2019 and ramp-down to end in 2022.
Please see the ECMD website ( under Renewable Energy / Solar for details of the specific laws and rules.

6. Growth in NM Residential PV Systems

7. Solar Thermal Tax Credits
2016
Solar Thermal 10
Systems to date
15 business days to submit application for the tax credit. 5:00 pm December 30, 2016!
The Solar Thermal tax credit is not being used in New Mexico. Typically a solar thermal system will have payback times of less than 10 years and typically may have simple payback times of 4 to 6 years. A Federal tax credit is also available for these systems.

8. Sales and Job Creation with Tax Credit

9. System size is growing while cost per watt is falling

10. Number of Installed Systems with Module Pricing Distribution by Bins for 2016

11. Tabulation of PV Tax Credit Data
Note the decline in the Average cost per Watt for the systems. These system prices are ‘before tax credit’ is applied. The $4.11 / Watt for 2014 is within the grid parity pricing for the PNM service territory as depicted in the NREL charts on grid parity.

12. Top Five Contractors for SMDTC Database in 2016 in the Leading Counties
+ Vivent - ~1000 systems 2016

13. NM Residential Solar Tax Credit
Has the Solar Market Development Tax Credit Program been Successful?
A resounding “YES”
Should this program be extended?
Should this program be changed?
Consider how to help different economic strata in the State.
Consider what benefits a different program may bring.
Consider what the industry should look like in the future.
What types of Business Models should a program favor?
Develop a new program using new resources?

14. New National Forest in New Mexico Torrance County National Forest
Tree specie is a GE 2.5 with hundreds being planted in the next 5 years

15. Forecast for Renewable Energy Generation in New Mexico
The possible renewable energy component of New Mexico’s electricity supply could be 50% by 2030 with a continuance of business as present and growth rates remaining steady.

16. NM Taxpayer Data and US Census Bureau Poverty Data
All Tax Payers (Tax Year 2013 Data)
Income Bracket
Number of Returns
Percent Returns
New Mexico Taxable Income by Bracket
Percent NM Taxable Income
Estimated Tax on TI in Bracket
Percent Tax
Under $25,000
614,858
62.54%
10,381,967,505
35.53%
342,296,249
27.05%
$25,000-$50,000
141,196
14.36%
6,293,768,972
21.54%
308,394,680
24.37%
$50,000-$75,000
88,098
8.96%
3,648,617,224
12.49%
178,841,838
14.13%
$75,000-$100,000
49,489
5.03%
2,107,444,355
7.21%
103,264,773
8.16%
$100,000-$200,000
60,214
6.12%
3,077,816,583
10.53%
150,813,013
11.92%
Over $200,001
29,267
2.98%
3,712,069,574
12.70%
181,891,409
14.37%
Total
983,122
100.00%
29,221,684,213
1,265,501,962
From the “2015 Tax Expenditure Report revised “– NM TRD This table is from page 22
This table shows 76% of the NM returns with income of $50k or below
Poverty Thresholds for 2013 by Size of Family and Number of Related Children Under 18 Years
Size of family unit
Weighted average thresholds
Related children under 18 years
None
One
Two
Three
Four
Five
Six
Seven
Eight or more
One person (unrelated individual)
11,888
Under 65 years
12,119
65 years and over
11,173
Two people
15,142
Householder under 65 years
15,679
15,600
16,057
Householder 65 years and over
14,095
14,081
15,996
Three people
18,552
18,222
18,751
18,769
Four people
23,834
24,028
24,421
23,624
23,707
Five people
28,265
28,977
29,398
28,498
27,801
27,376
Six people
31,925
33,329
33,461
32,771
32,110
31,128
30,545
Seven people
36,384
38,349
38,588
37,763
37,187
36,115
34,865
33,493
Eight people
40,484
42,890
43,269
42,490
41,807
40,839
39,610
38,331
38,006
Nine people or more
48,065
51,594
51,844
51,154
50,575
49,625
48,317
47,134
46,842
45,037
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

17. Mixed Use Low to Moderate Income housing in T or C
Mixed Use Low to Moderate Income housing in T or C. What solar business model could serve this community?
There are maybe four houses (3 %) that could qualify for a loan or tax credit in this aerial photo. There are 55 mobile or manufactured homes, and about 68 apartment rental units that could not make use of solar as presently installed or presently funded. A New Technology & New Business Model?
US DOE SunShot Program: Solar in Your Community Challenge - $5 Million Contest

18. Going Forward ECMD: New Programs and Efforts:
Electric Car Charging Installations at State Buildings. Car Charging Challenge.
Sustainability Tax Credit program – new Residential 2017 program.
DOE Low to Moderate Income (LMI) Residence Pilot Program for Solar Adoption. Community Solar, On bill financing, PACE, Solar as an Appliance, PV on a Pole, New Energy Building Code. Participants are Taos, Kit Carson Electric Co-op and Truth or Consequences Municipal Utility.
DOE Low Carbon Crossroads. A statewide community input project to talk about reducing the carbon footprint in the state while improving job opportunities and living conditions.
DOE Small Modular Reactor (SMR) study.
Geothermal well drilling management statewide (inherited program from OCD).
WasteNot program for 5 communities in New Mexico for waste water treatment facility energy efficiency upgrades.
Energy Services Contracts – ESCO’s for state buildings and schools, trading efficiency upgrades for savings on energy use.
Re-invigorated efforts for PACE programs statewide. The Property Assessed Clean Energy program did not take off in , and based upon results in other states, efforts are being made to make this program available for energy efficiency and renewables in most markets in New Mexico. Stakeholders are being solicited for input and support of this important program.

19. Making Energy Fun!
Photo Courtesy Webb Family 2015

20. Mark Gaiser 505-476-3318 mark.gaiser@state.nm.us

21. New Mexico Solar Market Development Tax Credit Data

22. Residential Systems in 2016 for top Ten Counties

24. Module Pricing Data for 2016

25. Top Five Installers in New Mexico by Quantity of Systems Installed
2012 Top Five NM State Installers
Residential Projects Certified
Consolidated Solar Technologies
258
Positive Energy, Inc
175
Sunspot Solar Energy Systems, LLC
155
Affordable Solar Installation, Inc
149
Solar Smart Living 38
93 Contractors State Wide Total
1068
Based upon calendar year January 1 through December 31 Tax Credit approvals.
2013 Top Five NM State Installers
Residential Projects Certified
Consolidated Solar Technologies
224
Sunspot Solar Energy Systems, LLC
211
Positive Energy, Inc.
170
Affordable Solar
157
1B Electric Company 36
101 Contractors State Wide Total
1133
2014 Top Five NM State Installers
Residential Projects Certified
Positive Energy
206
Consolidated Solar Technologies
201
Sunspot Solar Energy Systems, LLC
179
Affordable Solar
163
Direct Power and Water Corp. 34
56 Contractors State Wide Total
1023

26. Top Five Contractors for SMDTC Database in 2015 in the Leading Counties

27. Grid Parity?
Grid parity (or socket parity) occurs when an alternative energy source can generate power at a levelized cost of electricity (LCoE) that is less than or equal to the price of purchasing power from the electricity grid. (Wikipedia)
Factors influencing grid parity:
Cost of utility provided electricity (see )
Costs to connect PV system (new – capacity charge)
Cost of PV system
Cost offsets for purchase of PV system (ITC, PTC, Tax credits)
Cost offsets for system energy production (REC credits)
Financing costs
Available solar resource
System design and components
System lifetime
System maintenance

28. NREL Grid Parity Map for 2015 ( 2009 projection)
Break-Even Cost for Residential Photovoltaics in the United States: Key Drivers and Sensitivities
Paul Denholm, Robert M. Margolis, Sean Ong, and Billy Roberts
Technical Report NREL/TP-6A
December 2009
The New Mexico Grid Parity ranges from $3-4 / W to over $6 / W.
SPS (XCEL) territory requires the least expensive system, EPE territory is at grid parity with an expensive system.
Note: A lighter color would require a less-expensive solar system in order to break even.

29. Is New Mexico at Grid Parity?
Notes on chart:
This a distribution of system costs for 2015 in New Mexico over-layed by the NREL chart box colors for the grid parity costs / watt. This is a somewhat apples & oranges comparison since the chart numbers are before tax credits and the NREL numbers are after tax credits. As noted on the chart, these systems costs would move to the right if the tax credits are included. An example is a $6.00 / Watt system when applying tax credits would appear as a $3.60 / Watt system on the NREL chart.
All-in costs move this way with tax credits
SMDTC System all-in costs excludes ITC and NM SMD tax credits. NREL pricing includes tax credits.

30. Grid Parity in New Mexico? YES!
In the majority of the electrical energy provider’s service areas in New Mexico, Grid Parity has been achieved.
PV systems should be viewed as an economically attractive competitive alternative or a competitive complement to utility provided electricity.
See for the NREL online tool to look at breakeven costs in your county. Also see for electricity pricing in your area.

31. Solar PV installations by Utility
Utility Id's: CDEC-Continental Divide EC, CEC-Columbus EC, CNMEC-Central New Mexico EC, COAED-City of Aztec Electric Dept.,EPE- El Paso Electric, FEC-Farmer's EC, FEUS-Farmington Electric Utility System, GJU-Gallup Joint Utilities, JMEC-Jemez Mountain EC, KCEC-Kit Carson EC, LADPU-Los Alamos Dept. of Public Utilities, MSMEC- Mora-San Miguel EC, NAEC-Navajo-Apache EC, NORA-Northern Rio Arriba EC, OCEC-Otero County EC, off-grid- no utility connection, PNM- Public Service Company of New Mexico, RPS- Raton Public Service, SEC- Socorro EC, SIEC- Sierra EC, SPEC- Springer EC, SPS- Southwestern Public Service, SWEC - Southwest EC, TCMU-Truth or Consequences Municipal Utility.

32. Solar PV installations by Utility and Year

34. Concept sketch of 1. 2 kW PV system on a pole
Concept sketch of 1.2 kW PV system on a pole. A way to quickly install a system using a lighting pole ground screw.