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Beijing, April 2002 Tianjun Mats Odd Helge Yongqi Tore HuiJun Helge

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Presentation on theme: "Beijing, April 2002 Tianjun Mats Odd Helge Yongqi Tore HuiJun Helge"— Presentation transcript:

1 Beijing, April 2002 Tianjun Mats Odd Helge Yongqi Tore HuiJun Helge
Dabang

2 Journal of Geophysical Research, 49 citations

3 Journal of Geophysical Research, 40 citations

4 Annual mean surface temperature, mid Pliocene vs present
(vegetation+ice sheet/sea ice+SST) The simulated differences of annual mean surface temperature between the middle Pliocene and the present (Exp2 minus Exp1, unit: °C). Areas with confidence level smaller than 99% are shaded.

5 Annual mean surface temperature, mid Pliocene vs present
(SST and sea ice extent, only) The simulated differences of annual mean surface temperature induced by the reconstructed SST and sea ice extent (Exp2 minus Exp5, unit: °C). Areas with confidence level smaller than 99% are shaded.

6 Journal of Climate, 111 citations (part of the EU-project Dynamite)

7 Contour lines for 5870 m height of the 500-hPa geopotential, summer (reanalysis)
Fig. 1. Contour lines for 5870 gpm of 500-hPa geopotential height for each summer during (a), (c) 1980–99 and (b), (d) 1958–79 from (a), (b) NCEP reanalysis and (c), (d) ERA-40. The thick contour line shows the mean for each time period.

8 Characteristic WPSH isolines at 500 hPa for IWP warming (red), cooling (blue) and control integration (black) Fig. 4. (b)–(f) The positions of characteristic WPSH (West Pacific Subtropical High) isoline at 500 hPa in IWP (Indian Ocean–western Pacific) warming (red) and cooling (blue) experiments and control runs (long-dashed black line) in the five AGCMs. The name of AGCM is marked at the left corner. (a) The model results are for a 30-yr mean. IAP refers to the GAMIL model. The condition of the NCEP reanalysis is shown [1980–99 (red line), 1958–79 (blue line), and 1958–99 (long-dashed black line) mean].

9 Journal of Climate

10 Atmospheric Bridge and Oceanic Tunnel ABOT
Hadley Cell EQ SP NP Shallow subtropical cell Deep overturning circulation Ocean

11 Experiment 1 ABOT Atmosphere SP 30S EQ 30N NP Ocean
Atmospheric Bridge + Oceanic Tunnel Atmosphere Coupled SP S EQ N NP Run 1 – CTRL Ocean

12 Experiment 1 ABOT Atmosphere SP 30S EQ 30N NP Ocean
Atmospheric Bridge + Oceanic Tunnel Atmosphere Fixed Coupled Fixed SP S EQ N NP Run 1 – CTRL Ocean Run 2 – ABOT CTRL

13 Experiment 1 ABOT Atmosphere SP 30S EQ 30N NP Ocean
Atmospheric Bridge + Oceanic Tunnel Atmosphere 2C SSTA 2C SSTA Fixed Coupled Fixed SP S EQ N NP Run 1 – CTRL Ocean Run 2 – ABOT CTRL

14 Experiment 1 ABOT Atmosphere SP 30S EQ 30N NP Ocean
Atmospheric Bridge + Oceanic Tunnel Atmosphere 2C SSTA 2C SSTA Fixed Coupled Fixed SP S EQ N NP Run 1 – CTRL Ocean Run 2 – ABOT CTRL Run 3 – ABOT

15 Experiment 2 T-ABOT Tropical Atmospheric Bridge + Oceanic Tunnel
Atmosphere 2C SSTA Coupled Fixed Coupled SP S EQ N NP Ocean

16 Experiment 3 OT Oceanic Tunnel only Atmosphere SP 30S EQ 30N NP
Fixed Coupled Fixed SP S EQ N NP 2C SSTA 2C SSTA Ocean

17 Bergen Climate Model v1 OASIS ARPEGE/IFS spectral model
Horizontal:TL63(2.8°) Vertical:31 levels,10 hPa Furevik et al., Clim. Dyn Otterå et al., GRL Bentsen et al., Clim. Dyn Frankignoul et al., Clim. Dyn Otterå et al., Tellus Collins et al., J. Clim Drange et al., AGU Monogr Furevik and Nilsen, AGU Monogr Kuzmina et al., GRL Minot and Frankignoul, Clim. Dyn Sorteberg et al., GRL Sorteberg et al., AGU Monogr. 2005 Bergen Climate Model v1 OASIS MICOM (sea-ice ) Horizontal: 2.4°× 2.4° Vertical:24 layers,s0=

18 Masks used for partial coupling

19 Global Response

20 SST-response ABOT

21 SST response OT

22 SST response T-ABOT

23 Temporal Response

24 ABOT

25 ABOT

26 T-ABOT

27 T-ABOT

28 OT

29 OT

30 Findings The simulated SST and sub-surface T responses are 1-1.5°C of the imposed SST-anomaly of 2°C Tropics vs Extratropics SST in the extratropics  SST in the tropics SST in the tropics  50% SST in the N+S extratropics 70% SST in the N extratropics 40% SST in the S extratropics Importance of AB and OT on SST: Atmos. Bridge 70% Ocean Tunnel 30% Importance of AB and OT on sub-surface T: Atmos. Bridge 10% Ocean Tunnel 90%

31 Bergen Climate Model Helge Drange1,2,3,4 with contributions from Asgeir Sorteberg2,3, Tore Furevik2,3, Tianjun Zhou4, Nils Gunnar Kvamstø2,3, Mats Bentsen1,3, Dabang Jiang4, Odd Helge Otterå1, Yongqi Gao1,4, Ina K. T. Kindem2,3 and the rest of the BCM group 1Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center 2Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen 3Bjerknes Centre, UoB 4Institute of Atmospheric Physics/CAS

32 Bergen Climate Model Atmospheric model (ARPEGE/IFS) Coupler (OASIS)
Ocean model (MICOM)

33 Performed integrations
300 yrs control simulation with present day value of atmospheric pCO2 and aerosol particles 4 x (2xCO2) CMIP-2 integrations (+1% CO2 ppm/yr for 80 yrs) 1 x 10xCO2 integration (+1% CO2 ppm/yr for 265 yrs) 1 x 150 yrs fresh-water integration (artificially increased fresh-water into the Arctic region)

34 Climate Change over China

35 Seasonal estimates of temperature in control simulation.
Averages over Central China Central China: Mean of gridsquares inside the square from 100 to 120E and 28 to 42N (BCM: 35 gridsquares) OBS: NCEP reanalysis Data from BCM: Averages over all 300 yrs Seasonal mean temperature estimates in BCM control integration and observational estimates from the NCEP renanlysis. Unit: C

36 Annual change in temperature after CO2 doubling
CONTROL: E75 CMIP2 1% INCREASE: E76 CMIP2-CONTROL This is the annual changes in temperature around doubling of CO2 (year 70). Data are time averages between CMIP2 model year 60 and 80. (BCM year ).

37 Seasonal changes in temperature after CO2 doubling.
Averages over Central China Central China: Mean of gridsquares inside the square from 100 to 120E and 28 to 42N (35 gridsquares) This is the changes (CMIP2-CONTROL) in 2m temperature around doubling of CO2 (year 70). Data are time averages between CMIP2 model year 60 and 80. (BCM year ). Seasonal mean difference in temperature after CO2 doubling (mean over year 60-80) compared to the control integration. Area: central China (area between E and 28-42N). Unit: C

38 Seasonal estimates of precipitation in control simulation.
Averages over Central China Central China: Mean of gridsquares inside the square from 100 to 120E and 28 to 42N (BCM: 35 gridsquares) OBS: Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Version: 2 Data from BCM: Averages over all 300 yrs Seasonal mean precipitation estimates in BCM control integration and observational estimates from the GPCP V2 dataset. Unit: mm/day

39 Annual change in precipitation after CO2 doubling
CONTROL: E75 CMIP2 1% INCREASE: E76 CMIP2-CONTROL This is the annual relative changes (%) in precipitation around doubling of CO2 (year 70). Data are time averages between CMIP2 model year 60 and 80. (BCM year ). Annual mean relative difference in precipitation after CO2 doubling (mean over year 60-80). Unit: %

40 Seasonal changes in precipitation after CO2 doubling.
Averages over Central China Central China: Mean of gridsquares inside the square from 100 to 120E and 28 to 42N (35 gridsquares) This is the relative changes ((CMIP2-CONTROL) /CONTROL) in precipitation around doubling of CO2 (year 70). Data are time averages between CMIP2 model year 60 and 80. (BCM year ). Seasonal mean relative difference in precipitation after CO2 doubling (mean over year 60-80) compared to the control integration. Area: central China (area between E and 28-42N). Unit: %

41 Annual total runoff and changes after CO2 doubling
CONTROL: E75 CMIP2 1% INCREASE: E76 TOTAL RUNOFF: This is just the exess water in the soil after soil saturation (so it is the water that potentially may run off). The saturation is determined by a saturation point dependent on the type of soil in the gridsquare. This is the annual mean (CONTROL) and changes (CMIP2-CONTROL) in total runoff around doubling of CO2 (year 70). Data are time averages between CMIP2 model year 60 and 80. (BCM year ). Annual mean total runoff (left) and difference in total runoff (right) after CO2 doubling (mean over year 60-80) compared to the control integration. Unit: mm/day

42 Seasonal changes in total runoff after CO2 doubling.
Averages over Central China Difference Relative difference Central China: Mean of gridsquares inside the square from 100 to 120E and 28 to 42N (35 gridsquares) This is the changes (CMIP2-CONTROL) and relative changes ((CMIP2-CONTROL) /CONTROL) in total runoff around doubling of CO2 (year 70). Data are time averages between CMIP2 model year 60 and 80. (BCM year ). TOTAL RUNOFF: This is just the exess water in the soil after soil saturation (so it is the water that potentially may run off). The saturation is determined by a saturation point dependent on the type of soil in the gridsquare. Seasonal mean differences and relative differences in total runoff after CO2 doubling (mean over year 60-80) compared to the control integration. Area: central China (area between E and 28-42N). Unit: mm/day and %


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