1. Five Nations Beef Alliance Overview – New Zealand
23/09/2015
Five Nations Beef Alliance Overview – New Zealand
George Tatham
Director
Beef + Lamb New Zealand
© Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service, MW5643

3. Matariki Farm

4. Matariki Farm

5. Matariki Farm

6. Overview Economic outlook is improving in key markets (except China)
New Zealand economy expected to face challenges in
low dairy price,
weak demand from China
offset to some extent by weaker exchange rate
Beef cattle numbers 30 June 2015 down 2.2% (3.6 million head)
Dairy cattle numbers down 3% to 6.5 million

7. Export Cattle Slaughter
25 September 2015
Export Cattle Slaughter
September Year
For we are forecasting export cattle slaughter to decrease 8.5% to 2.4 million head, representing a decline from the elevated levels of production seen in
Climatic conditions, high beef prices and lower dairy prices all led to an increase in slaughter numbers in
Updated 25 Sep 2015, RMD
ref: MW5580.xlxs
© Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service, MW5580

8. Export Cattle Slaughter x Category
25 September 2015
Export Cattle Slaughter x Category
September Year
This is how we expect the reduction to be spread across the different classes of stock
Updated 25 Sep 2015, RMD
ref: MW5580.xlxs
© Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service, MW5580

9. Export Cow Slaughter September Year
Export Cow slaughter showing substantial increase in as a result of lower dairy prices.
projected to fall back but still above levels
Updated 25 Sep 2015, RMD
ref: MW5580.xlxs
© Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service, MW5580

10. Export Bobby Veal Slaughter
25 September 2015
Export Bobby Veal Slaughter
September Year
Similarly after a record year for bobby calf slaughter from the dairy herd, we expect to see an increase in retention in the year.
Updated 25 Sep 2015, RMD
ref: MW5580.xlxs
© Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service, MW5580

11. 23/09/2015
As many of you are already aware, despite our relatively small herd size, New Zealand is the world’s 5th largest exporter of beef. This is because we export about 80% of our beef production – there is only so much beef that our 4.5m people can eat.
Our most significant beef market by a very large margin is the US. It took 55% of our beef exports in the year compared to our second largest market (China), which took just 12%. So the dramatic increases in beef prices in the US market in recent times have been very significant for Kiwi beef farmers
Beef and veal export returns achieved in North Asia fell over , alth9ugh there is still demand in these markets for safe, high quality protein. There is certainly opportunity in North Asia for all of us.    
© Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service, MW5643

12. 23/09/2015
US Domestic Prices
After gaining more than 30% in , international cattle prices are expected to continue to be strong in
© Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service, MW5643

13. New Zealand dollar expected to fall
23/09/2015
New Zealand dollar expected to fall
However, we expect this increase will be mainly driven by a depreciation of the NZD rather than an increase in market prices as observed last year.
The NZD is expected to drop significantly against the USD, GBP and to a lesser extent the EUR.
Exchange rate estimates for
USD 0.63  (-14%)
GBP 0.42  (-12%)
EUR 0.61  (-5%)
© Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service, MW5643

14. Prices US Imported Frozen Beef
23/09/2015
Prices US Imported Frozen Beef
© Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service, MW5643

15. Working closely with beef producers in other countries is important to New Zealand beef farmers. We are stronger together than as individuals, and FNBA is a great example of that.
The work that FNBA has been doing in relation to the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiation is a particularly good demonstration of this.
We, as a group of beef exporters, have been able to stand together and put forward a coherent, united view of our goals for this hugely important agreement.
© Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service, MW5643