1. 3 Aspects of Systems Thinking:
Enlarging the problem boundary
Visualizing in closed loops
Revealing Unintended Consequences

2. Enlarging the Problem Boundary
Holistic
Thinkers
Systems
Thinkers
global
Space
Most people
Futurists
local
Now
Future
Time

3. Lead-in to CLD’s
In order to understand why complex systems behave the way they do, Systems Thinking provides us with a visual method to find the leverage points (places where small changes can produce big differences)
This technique will help us visually reveal the underlying cause of the system’s behavior which is where the leverage points lie.

4. The Traditional Way—Straight Line Thinking
Org Floundering—LT
The Traditional Way—Straight Line Thinking
For example, here’s how we might view why an organization flounders using the traditional straight line thinking approach
Poor management
Loss of key employees
Organization flounders
Low product quality
Intense competition
We call these relationships “cause and effect.”

5. The Systems way: Visualizing in closed loops
Org Floundering--ST
The Systems way: Visualizing in closed loops
But here’s how we might view why the same organization flounders using a systems thinking approach.
Poor management
Organization flounders
Loss of key employees
Intense competition
Low product quality
We call these relationships “causeffect”

6. There are two kinds of loops in a Causal Loop Diagram:
CLDs
Causal Loop Diagrams
These System Thinking closed loop diagrams are called Causal Loop Diagrams.
There are two kinds of loops in a Causal Loop Diagram:
Reinforcing Loops
Balancing Loops

7. Example of a Reinforcing Loop
R Loops--Narrative
Example of a Reinforcing Loop
Exercise Level R
Sense of Well-Being
Starting anywhere on the loop, a change in any variable feeds back around the loop to change that same variable in the same direction.
That is, an increase in the variable causes its further increase, or a decrease in the variable causes it’s further decrease

8. So….Reinforcing loops:
R loops-- qualities
So….Reinforcing loops:
Exhibit uncontrolled growth (or collapse).
Consume available resources to feed that growth.
Can be a virtuous or a vicious cycle.
Are unsustainable (things can’t grow on forever)

9. Example of a Balancing Loop
Balancing Loops--CLD
Example of a Balancing Loop
Exercise Level B
Fatigue
Starting anywhere on the loop, a change in any variable feeds back around the loop to change that same variable in the opposite direction.
That is, an increase in the variable causes its further decrease, or a decrease in the variable causes it’s further increase.

10. Exhibit controlled growth or decline
Balancing Loops
So…Balancing loops:
Exhibit controlled growth or decline
Limit consumption of available resources
Are sustainable

11. Reinforcing and balancing loops coupled together
Coupled loops
Reinforcing and balancing loops coupled together
Exercise
Level R B
Fatigue
Sense of
Well-Being
Reinforcing loops can shift dominance to balancing loops that generates a controlled limit to growth because they both happen during the same time period.

12. Unintended Consequences!!
UC--Overview
When coupled loops happen in different time periods (short-term vs. long-term), there can often be:
Unintended Consequences!!
Solutions that temporarily fix the symptom and don’t address the underlying cause in the short-term often create unintended consequences that make the problem worse in the long-term.

13. Revealing Unintended Consequences
UC--Shelburne Rd. CLD
Revealing Unintended Consequences
Traffic
congestion
Road
expansion B
Attractiveness
of driving R

14. UC--with policy solution
Unintended Consequences
Traffic
congestion B
Attractiveness
of driving R B
Disincentives
(Tolls, carpool lanes)
Road
expansion

15. Unintended Consequences
UC--Generic
Unintended Consequences
Problem
symptom B
Unintended
Consequence R B
Policy
Solution
Quick-fix
Solution

16. Unintended Consequences
UC--Recap
Unintended Consequences
A short-term quick fix to the problem creates a longer-term unintended consequence
The unintended consequence is part of a reinforcing loop that makes the system unsustainable.
Add a balancing policy loop in the long-term addresses the underlying causes of the problem and make the system more sustainable.
This is a Systems Thinking solution.