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Sun-Solar System Connection

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Presentation on theme: "Sun-Solar System Connection"— Presentation transcript:

1 Sun-Solar System Connection
Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #1 Sun-Solar System Connection APIO-level Committee NASA HQ Co-Chair: Al Diaz (NASA HQ) Center Co-chair: Tom Moore (NASA GSFC) External Co-chair: Tim Killeen (NCAR) Directorate Coordinator: Barbara Giles (NASA HQ) APIO Coordinator: Azita Valinia (NASA GSFC) Committee Members: Scott Denning (Colorado State University) Jeffrey Forbes (Univ of Colorado) Stephen Fuselier (Lockheed Martin) William Gibson (Southwest Research Institute) Don Hassler (Southwest Research Institute) Todd Hoeksema (Stanford Univ.) FRC Chair Craig Kletzing (Univ. Of Iowa) Edward Lu (NASA/JSC) Victor Pizzo (NOAA) James Russell (Hampton University) James Slavin (NASA GSFC) Michelle Thomsen (LANL) Warren Wiscombe (NASA GSFC) Ex Officio members: Donald Anderson (NASA HQ) Dick Fisher (NASA HQ) Rosamond Kinzler (Amer. Mus. of Natural History) Mark Weyland (Space Radiation Analysis Group, JSC) Michael Wargo (NASA HQ) Al Shafer (Office of the Secretary of Defense) Systems Engineers: John Azzolini (GSFC) Tim Van Sant (GSFC) Sun-Solar System Foundation Roadmap Team External Chair: Todd Hoeksema, Stanford University Center Co-Chair: Thomas Moore, NASA/GSFC HQ Coordinator: Barbara Giles Markus Aschwanden, Lockheed-Martin Donald Anderson, NASA/HQ Scott Bailey, University of Alaska Thomas Bogdan, NCAR Cynthia Cattell, University of Minnesota Gregory Earle, Univ. of Texas at Dallas Joseph Fennell, Aerospace Corp. Jeffrey Forbes, University of Colorado Stephen Fuselier (Lockheed Martin) Glynn Germany, University of Alabama in Huntsville Nat Gopalswamy, NASA/GSFC Donald Hassler, Southwest Research Institute Rosamond Kinzler, American Museum of Natural History Craig Kletzing, University of Iowa Barry LaBonte, JHU/Applied Physics Lab Michael Liemohn, University of Michigan Paulett Liewer, NASA/JPL Neil Murphy, NASA/JPL Edmond Roelof, JHU/Applied Physics Lab James Russell, Hampton University James Slavin (NASA GSFC) Leonard Strachan, Smithsonian Astro Observatory Sun-Solar System Connection Strategic Roadmap Committee #10 Mission Worksheets v. May 5, 2005 Roadmap Activities NRC update to Space Physics Decadal Survey Sep. 2004 Solar Sail technology workshop Sep , 2004 Roadmap working team meeting Oct. 5-6, 2004 Advisory Committee review of progress Nov. 3-5, 2004 Community-led imaging technology workshop Nov. 9-10, 2004 Community-wide roadmap workshop Nov , 2004 Roadmap working team meeting Nov , 2004 Roadmap working team meeting Jan , 2005 Update to NRC Space Studies Board CSSP Feb. 8, 2005 SRM#10 committee meeting #1 Feb , 2005 Half-day bilateral meetings with other US Government agencies Late Feb/Early March Advisory Committee review of progress February 28-March 2 SMD International Strategic Conference on Roadmaps March 8-10 SRM #10 committee meeting #2 March 15-16 Roadmap working team meeting March 16-18 Advisory Committee review of progress March 30-April 1 SRM #10 committee teleconference April 11 Roadmap working team meeting May 9-10 SRM #10 committee meeting #3 ~May 12-13 Roadmap review by the National Academy June 1

2 Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap The Path from Science Objectives to Implementation
Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #2 Agency Strategic Objective: Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on the Earth, the solar system, and the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers The following charts document the detailed process by which the roadmap team will establish Sun-Solar System Connection program implementation requirements and prioritize the recommended program elements Steps to completion: 1: Team to complete charts 1a: Engage Jenny/Steele to suggest final wording, style 2: Iterate with team for accuracy, fiscal reality, agreement with intent, ability to make substantial progress on all three science objectives 3: Completion date for draft: May 6. 4: Finalization: May

3 Step 1: Science Objectives
Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #3 Agency Strategic Objective: Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on the Earth, the solar system, and the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers Opening the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction Understand the fundamental physical processes of the space environment – from the Sun to Earth, to other planets, and beyond to the interstellar medium Understanding the Nature of Our Home in Space Understand how human society, technological systems, and the habitability of planets are affected by solar variability and planetary magnetic fields Safeguarding Our Outbound Journey Maximize the safety and productivity of human and robotic explorers by developing the capability to predict the extreme and dynamic conditions in space

4 Step 2: Science Objectives to Research Focus Areas
Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #4 Agency Strategic Objective: Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on the Earth, the solar system, and the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers Opening the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction Understanding the Nature of Our Home in Space Safeguarding our Outbound Journey Understand magnetic reconnection as revealed in solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and geospace storms Understand the causes and subsequent evolution of solar activity that affects Earth’s space climate and environment Characterize the variability, extremes, and boundary conditions of the space environments that will be encountered by human and robotic explorers Understand the plasma processes that accelerate and transport particles Determine changes in the Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and upper atmosphere to enable specification, prediction, and mitigation of their effects. Develop the capability to predict the origin and onset of solar disturbances associated with potentially hazardous space weather events Understand how nonlinear interactions transfer energy and momentum within planetary upper atmospheres Understand the role of the Sun as an energy source to the Earth’s atmosphere, and in particular the role of solar variability in driving change Develop the capability to predict the propagation and evolution of space weather disturbances to enable safe travel for human and robotic explorers Determine how solar and planetary magnetic dynamos are created and why they vary Apply our understanding of space plasma physics to the role of stellar activity and magnetic shielding in planetary system evolution and habitability Understand and characterize the space weather effects on and within planetary environments to minimize risk in exploration activities

5 Step 3: Recommended Science Investigations
Agency Strategic Objective: Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on the Earth, the solar system, and the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers Research Focus Areas and Recommended Science Investigations Opening the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction RFA: Understand magnetic reconnection as revealed in solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and geospace storms Investigations: RFA: Understand the plasma processes that accelerate and transport particles throughout the solar system RFA: Understand how nonlinear interactions transfer energy and momentum within planetary upper atmospheres RFA: Determine how solar and planetary magnetic dynamos are created and why they vary What are the fundamental physical processes of reconnection on the small-scales where particles decouple from the magnetic field? What is the magnetic field topology for reconnection and at what size scales does magnetic reconnection occur on the Sun? How are energetic particles accelerated by DC and low frequency electric fields? How are energetic particles accelerated by shocks? How are energetic particles accelerated by stochastic processes? How are thermal plasmas accelerated? Understand the nonlinear dynamics governing transfer of momentum and energy between different spatial and temporal scales Understand how energetic particles chemically modify planetary environments Understand how the magnetosphere and the IT systems interact with each other How do solar convective flows drive the solar dynamo? How does dynamo evolve on both short and long-term time scales? How do planetary dynamos functions and why do they vary so widely across the solar system? RFA: Understand the causes and subsequent evolution of solar activity that affects Earth’s space climate and environment. Investigations: RFA: Determine changes in the Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and upper atmosphere to enable specification, prediction, and mitigation of their effects RFA: Understand the role of the Sun as an energy source to the Earth’s atmosphere, and in particular the role of solar variability in driving change RFA: Apply our understanding of space plasma physics to the role of stellar activity and magnetic shielding in planetary system evolution and habitability How do solar wind disturbances propagate and evolve from the Sun to Earth? What are the precursors to solar disturbances? Predict solar disturbances that impact Earth. What role does the electrodynamic coupling between the ionosphere and the magnetosphere play in determining the response of geospace to solar disturbances? How do energetic particle spectra, magnetic and electric fields, and currents evolve in response to solar disturbances? How do the coupled middle and upper atmosphere respond to external drivers and with each other? How do solar energetic particles influence the chemistry of the atmosphere, cloud nucleation, and ozone? What are the dynamical, chemical, and radiative processes that convert and redistribute solar energy and couple atmospheric regions? How do long term variations in solar energy output affect Earth’s climate? What role do stellar plasmas and magnetic fields play in the formation of planetary systems? What is the role of planetary magnetic fields for the development and sustenance of life? What can the study of planetary interaction with the solar wind tell us about the evolution of planets and the implications of past and future magnetic field reversals at Earth? We’ll want to make shorter “chart” versions of many of these RFAs and investigations … Understanding the nature of our home in space RFA: Characterize the variability, extremes, and boundary conditions of the space environments that will be encountered by human and robotic explorers Investigations: RFA: Develop the capability to predict the origin and onset of solar activity and disturbances associated with potentially hazardous space weather events RFA: Develop the capability to predict the propagation and evolution of solar disturbances to enable safe travel for human and robotic explorers RFA: Understand and characterize the space weather effects on and within planetary environments to minimize risk in exploration activities What is the variability and extremes (worst case) of the radiation and space environment that will be encountered by future human and robotic explorers, both in space and on the surface of target bodies? How does the interplanetary radiation environment vary as a function of radial distance, heliographic longitude, latitude and time, and how should it be sampled to provide situational awareness for future human explorers? What is the relative contribution to the space radiation environment from Solar Energetic Particles and Galactic Cosmic Rays and how does this balance vary in time What are the observational precursors and magnetic configurations that lead to CMEs and other solar disturbances and what determines their magnitude and output of energetic particles? What observational data and models are needed to provide the predictive capability required by future human and robotic explorers? How are Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) created and how do they evolve from their coronal source regions into interplanetary space? How do solar magnetic fields and solar wind plasma connect to the inner heliosphere and what is the nature of the near-Sun solar wind through which solar disturbances propagate? How are energetic particles modulated by large-scale structures in the heliosphere (magnetic fields throughout the solar system) and what determines the variations in the observed particle fluxes To what extent does the hazardous near-Earth radiation environment impact human and robotic explorer’s safety and productivity? What Level of Characterization and Understanding of the Dynamics of the Mars Atmosphere is Necessary to Ensure Safe Aerobraking, Aerocapture and EDL Operations? To what extent does ionospheric instability, seasonal and solar induced variability affect communication system requirements and operation on Mars? What is the effect of energetic particle radiation on the chemistry and the energy balance of the Martian atmosphere? What are the dominant mechanisms of dust charging and transport on the Moon that impact human and robotic safety and productivity? Safeguarding our outbound journey

6 Step 4: Priority Investigations Lead to Targeted Outcomes
Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #6 SLIDE DESCRIPTION: The NASA Strategic Objective for the Sun – Solar System Connection suggests three broad tasks: • Open the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction • Understand the Nature of our Home in Space • Safeguard our Outward Journey. Research focus areas detailed in previous charts address each of these tasks and lead to expected scientific outcomes. This table shows for each of the next three decades the expected scientific outcomes for each area. The expected achievements are presented at a high level; most require progress in multiple research focus area and many require expertise from other scientific or exploration endeavors. Those with strong external requirements are marked with an asterisk. Near term achievements follow from planned missions that are well defined and rely on the SSSC capabilities expected to exist in the next few years. For example, the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) currently in development will measure reconnection near Earth, the first achievement indicated in the table. STEREO, with an anticipated launch in 2006, will enable us to understand how solar disturbance propagate from the Sun to Earth by providing a new perspective on coronal mass ejections. Continued operation of the Sun-Solar System Great Observatory will help nowcasting of space weather and forecasting of all clear periods. Achievements deferred to later decades have been prioritized to meet societal needs and requirements of the Exploration initiative. They also depend on development of new technology and capabilities in instrumentation, spacecraft design, launchers, telemetry, data analysis, theory, and modeling. For example, understanding the causes of variability in the Martian atmosphere is required in Phase 2 in order to inform the design of human and robotic missions to that planet. Similarly, integration of solar variability effects into Earth climate models is required for informed debate about global change. Phase 3 achievements suggest comprehensive knowledge of the complex system of systems that influence our environment, both here and elsewhere in the solar system. Imaging stellar activity will inform our understanding of our star and the habitability of planets around other Suns. Situational awareness of the space environment throughout the solar system will be required for technologies at Earth and explorers on our outward journey of exploration. Accomplishing these requires profound understanding of other Phase 3 outcomes, solar magnetic energy release and particle acceleration, for example. Some of these distant goals may seem grandiose, but with 30 years of concerted effort they are reachable. The SSSC program contributes to the development of technologies and knowledge systems that support operational systems throughout all phases of the program. This cross-cutting effort benefits from and contributes to many elements of the program. For example, in the near term the Space Environment Testbed program provides opportunity to fly and test materials and components. Characterization of the environment and ultimately the development of predictive capability will support operational systems such as passenger travel, prospecting, power distribution, tourism, commercial space travel, satellite operations, and navigation. Phase 1: Phase 2: Phase 3: 2025-beyond Open the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction Measure magnetic reconnection at the Sun and Earth Model the magnetic processes that drive space weather Predict solar magnetic activity and energy release Determine the dominant processes of particle acceleration Quantify particle acceleration for the key regions of exploration Predict high energy particle flux throughout the solar system. Determine the critical scales of cross- scale coupling Quantify plasma coupling mechanisms at critical interfaces Understand the coupling of disparate astrophysical systems Understand how solar disturbances propagate to Earth Identify precursors of important solar disturbances Image activity in other stellar systems Determine internal and external drivers of the geospace environment Quantify mechanisms and processes required to predict Earth’s response Enable continuous forecasts of conditions throughout the Earth system and heliosphere Describe how space plasmas and planetary atmospheres interact Determine the habitability of solar system bodies Determine how planetary habitability evolves in time Identify the impacts of solar variability on Earth’s atmosphere Integrate solar variability effects into Earth climate models Predict climate change* Understand the Nature of our Home in Space Determine extremes of the variable radiation and space environments at Earth, Moon, & Mars Characterize the near-Sun source region of the space environment Analyze the first direct samples of the interstellar medium Nowcast solar and space weather and forecast “All-Clear” periods for space explorers near Earth Reliably forecast space weather for the Earth-Moon system; make first space weather nowcasts at Mars Provide situational awareness of the space environment throughout the inner Solar System Determine Mars atmospheric variability relevant to aerocapture, entry, descent, landing, surface navigation and communications Reliably predict atmospheric and radiation environment at Mars to ensure safe surface operations Safeguard our Outward Journey Develop technologies, observations, and knowledge systems that support operational systems

7 Step 5: Known Resources to be applied
Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #7 In Development Partnership Low- to mid cost, multi-objective, strategically planned for fundamental space physics and space weather investigations Current Resources: 1 launch per 5 years STEREO CME Propagation MMS Reconnection Solar-B Solar Magnetic Fields 2006 2010 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 Low- to mid-cost, multi-objective, strategically targeted for Life and Society Science investigations, Recommended: 1 launch per 3 years RBSP Earth->Moon Radiation SDO Solar Dynamics Important for completion–> 2006 2010 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 Explorers, single objective, strategically selected to respond to new knowledge/decision points, Recommendation: 1 launch per 2 years THEMIS Magnetic Substorms AIM Noctilucent Clouds IBEX Interstellar Boundary MIDEX SMEX MIDEX SMEX MIDEX SMEX 2006 2010 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034

8 Step 6: Targeted Outcomes to Mission Recommendations
Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #8 SLIDE DESCRIPTION: The Sun-Solar System Science & Exploration Roadmap has used a top-down process to establish a prioritized program. The objectives derive directly from the NASA Strategic Objectives for 2005 and Beyond that support NASA's Guiding National Objectives. Research focus areas identify long-term scientific areas of inquiry for each objective. To address these RFA's specific investigations have been defined. Accomplishing the objectives requires a series of achievements or targeted outcomes. These outcomes have been prioritized to support needs of the Vision for Space Exploration and sequenced to address progressively more complex challenges. Each targeted outcome requires advances in understanding of physical processes. Measurement capabilities must be available to develop that knowledge. Deployment of missions, development of theoretical understanding, and infrastructure systems are required to provide that measurement capability. For example, the communication environment on Mars varies due to (among other things) plasma irregularities in the ionosphere driven by solar wind and irradiance variations. The Mars Dynamics mission will provide data crucial for design of the advanced DSN network that will retrieve data reliably from Mars. Similar traceability flow diagrams are being developed for each targeted outcome. Most mission elements contribute to multiple outcomes and support multiple investigations. Exciting exploratory and transformational science, particularly of the broader system, can be accomplished in conjunction with other missions after the core mission requirements are met. IMAGES: The first image is a copy of slide 11, the roadmap goal structure. The last outcome in phase 2 is circled and called out as an example for the development of a science “flow down to requirements” chart which is shown in the second image. This example char,t and all other flowdown charts developed, are available at Illustration of requirements flow-down U.S. mandate for Sun-Solar System Connection science and exploration determined research focus areas Vision for Space Exploration led to scheduling of targeted outcomes Each targeted outcome traced to required understanding and to focused, prioritized enabling capabilities and measurements Missions, groups of missions, research, theory, and modeling program elements, are derived from capabilities and measurement requirements Consolidation of priority outcomes show that many program elements contribute to multiple achievements and focus areas Missions singly and together contribute unique and vital data to understand the system of systems Mission studies at GSFC and JPL, including assessment of feasibility and maturity, categorized into cost classes: Explorer (< $250M), strategic ($250M-$500M), large strategic ($500M-$1B), flagship (>$1B) Requirement -flowdowns developed for each anticipated outcome. Prioritization of targeted outcomes informs final prioritization of program elements and mission concepts. Access current set of these flow diagrams at

9 Step 7: Phase 1 - Extracted from FOGs
Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #9 # Existing Assets New Missions F1A Magnetic Reconnection at Sun and Earth Cluster, TRACE, Polar MMS, Solar Reconnection RBSP, SDO, Solar-B, STEREO, THEMIS Auroral Imaging, L1monitor F1B Particle Acceleration Processes ACE, Cluster, FAST, Polar, RHESSI, SoHo, Voyager, Wind IHS, NESCE, RBSP, Solar-B, STEREO IBEX, ORBITALS, MMS, SDO, THEMIS L1monitor F1C Cross-Scale Coupling Cluster, L1-Monitor ITSP, IBEX, MMS, SDO STEREO H1A Propagation of Solar Disturbances ACE, Cluster, SoHO, Wind IHS, STEREO, SIRA, Solar Probe MMS, SDO, SIRA H1B Drivers of Geospace ACE, Cluster, IMAGE, FAST, TIMED CNOFS, TWINS, LCAS AIM, GEC, ITSP, ITImager, MMS, RBSP, THEMIS Orbitals, RAVENS L1monitor, SDO, STEREO H1C Solar Impacts on Atmosphere IMAGE, TIMED LCAS AIM, ITSP, ITMW, SECEP SDO H1D Plasmas & Planetary Environments GEC, ITMW, ITSP, Mars Aeronomy/Dynamics J1A Extremes ACE, Cassini, Cluster, SoHO, TIMED, LCAS IHS, ITSP, RBSP, SDO MMS, LRO, Mars Scouts J1B Nowcasts & “all-clears” ACE, SoHO, TRACE, Wind IHS, L1, SDO, Solar-B, STEREO, Buv Imager J2B Mars Atmosphere TIMED ITSP Program List by Objective (Enabling) STP F: MMS, Solar-B, STEREO H: GEC, MMS, STEREO J: Solar-B, STEREO LWS F: IHS, ITSP, RBSP, SDO H:IHS, ITSP, ITI, RBSP, Solar Probe J: IHS, ITSP, RBSP, SDO Explorers/ Potential Explorers and/or TBD F: IBEX, NESCE, Solar Reconnection H: AIM, ITMW, SECEP, SIRA, THEMIS J: Buv Imager Existing Assets F: ACE, Cluster, FAST, L1Monitor, Polar, RHESSI, SoHO, TRACE, Voyager, Wind H: ACE, Cluster, FAST, IMAGE, TIMED, SoHO, Wind J: ACE, Cassini, Cluster, SoHO, TIMED Partners H: L1monitor, Mars Aeronomy/Dynamics Program Recommendation STP GEC, MMS, Solar-B, STEREO LWS IHS, ITSP, RBSP, Solar Probe, SDO Explorers/ Potential Explorers/ and/or TBD AIM, Buv Imager, IBEX, ITMW, NESCE, SECEP, SIRA, SolarRecon, THEMIS Existing ACE, Cassini, Cluster, FAST, IMAGE, L1Monitor, Polar, RHESSI, SoHO, TIMED, TRACE, Voyager, Wind Partners L1, LRO, MAP, Orbitals, RAVENS Missions in red need funding resource Missions in Black and underlined are “enabling” Missions in gray are “contributing” Missions in gray provide “context”

10 Step 8: Phase 2 - Extracted from FOGs
Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #10 # Assumed in Flight New Missions F2A Magnetic drivers of SWx IBEX, ITImager, MMS, RBSP, SDO, Solar-B, Stereo, THEMIS MagCon, Sentinels, Solar Probe GEC, ITSP, L1, Solar Orbiter, Orbitals, RAVENS F2B Quantify Particle Acceleration IBEX, ITSP, L1-Monitor, MMS, RBSP, SDO, Solar-B, Stereo, THEMIS AMS, SEPP, Solar Probe ITSP,L1, MTRAP,Orbitals, RAVENS, Sentinels, Solar Orbiter F2C Plasma Coupling at Critical Interfaces ITSP, MMS, RBSP, SDO, STEREO GEC, ITMW, MC, Sentinels AMS, DDBC, GEMINI, MTRAP, SEPP, Solar Probe H2A Precursors of solar disturbances SDO Doppler, RAM, SEPP, SHIELDS, SIRA, Solar Orbiter, Solar Probe H2B Forecast Geospace GEC, ITSP, LCAS, MMS, RBSP, SDO, Sentinels, STEREO AMS, Conjugate aurora, DBC, ITMW, GEMINI, MagCon, Tropical ITM L1-Monitor H2C Habitability of Solar System Bodies ITMW, LCAS GSRI, MAP, TE, VAP H2D Solar variability and Earth Climate J2A Near-Sun Source Region Doppler, SEPP, Solar Probe, SPI/Telemachus, Solar Orbiter J2B Earth-Moon Forecasts, Mars Nowcasts J2C Spacecraft & Communication at Mars TIMED, ITSP ITMW, Mars Dynamics Program List by Objective STP F: GEC, MagCon H: RAM J: SPI/Telemachus LWS F: Sentinels, Solar Probe H: Solar Probe J: Solar Probe Potential Explorers and/or TBAssigned F: AMS, ITMW, SEPP H: Doppler, GEMINI, ITMW, GSRI, SHIELDS, SIRA J: Doppler, ITMW Partnerships F: H: MAP, Solar Orbiter, TE, VAP J: Mars Dynamics Assumed in Flight F: IBEX,ITImager,ITMW, ITSP, L1monitor, MMS, RBSP, SDO, Solar-B, STEREO, THEMIS H: GEC, ITSP, LCAS, MMS, RBSP, SDO, Sentinels, STEREO J: ITSP, TIMED Program Recommendation STP GEC, MagCon, SPI/Telemachus LWS Sentinels, Solar Probe Potential Explorer or TBAssigned AMS, Doppler, Gemini, ITMW, GSRI, SEPP Partnerships L1, MAP, Mars Dynamics, Orbitals, Ravens, Solar Orbiter, TE, VAP Assumed in Flight GEC, IBEX, ITImager, ITMW, ITSP, L1montior, LCAS, MMS, RBSP, SDO, Sentinels, Solar-B, STEREO, TIMED, THEMIS Missions in red need funding resource Missions in Black and underlined are “enabling” Missions in gray are “contributing” Missions in gray provide “context”

11 Step 9: Phase 3 - Extracted from FOGs
Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #11 # Assumed Flown New Missions F3A Solar Magnetic Activity & Release Farside, MTRAP, RAM, SHIELDS, SPI, SWB Stellar Imager F3B Predict Solar System Particle Flux through System Auroral Imagers, Chronograph, ITSP, L1, SEPP, Sentinels, MTRAP Farside, Extraterrestrial magnetosphere, Flagship mission through solar wind-Mag-IT system, Mercury magnetosphere, Interstellar Probe, JPO, SWB, L1 F3C Coupling in Astrophysics LCAS HIGO, Interstellar Probe, Stellar Imager H3A Forecasts throughout Heliosphere AMS, Dayside Boundary Constellation, GEMINI, ITMW, LCAS, MagCon IMC, ITC, Conjugate Auroral Imagers, L1 H3B Image Activity on other Stars Stellar Imager, Con-X. LUVO, KEPPLER H3C Evolution of Habitability IMTW, LCAS GSRI, MAP, TE, VAP H3D Climate Change J3A Situational Awareness Heliostorm,L1, Mars GOES, SHIELDS, SIRA SPI, SWB J3B Interstellar Medium J3C Mars Safe Surface Ops Lunar Mars GOES, SHIELDS, SWB Program List by Objective STP F: HIGO, ISP, MTRAP, RAM, SPI, SI H: CAI, SI J: SIRA, SPI LWS F: Farside, SHIELDS, SWB H: IMC, ITC J: SHIELDS, SWB Explorer F: H: GSRI J: Assumed Flown F: Auroral Imager, SEPP H: AMS, DDBC, Gemini, ITMW, MagCon J: Lunar, L1 Partners: Con-X, JPO,KEPPLER, L1, LUVO, MAP, TE, VAP, Mars-GOES Program Recommendation STP ISP, MTRAP, SPI, SI, SIRA LWS IMC, ITC, Farside, SHIELDS, SWB Explorer GSRI Assume Flown: ITMW, Gemini, LCAS, SEPP Partners: Con-X, L1, KEPPLER, JPO, LUVO, Mars-GOES, TE, VAP Missions in red need funding resource Missions in Black and underlined are “enabling” Missions in gray are “contributing” Missions in gray provide “context”

12 Partnership No Resource In Development Recommended Step 10: Recommendation for program that fully meets the conditions for SSSC strategic planning Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #12 In Development Partnership Low- to mid cost, multi-objective, strategically planned for fundamental space physics and space weather investigations Current Resources: 1 launch per 5 years STEREO CME Propagation MMS Reconnection Solar-B Solar Magnetic Fields 2006 2010 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 Low- to mid-cost, multi-objective, strategically targeted for Life and Society Science investigations, Recommended: 1 launch per 3 years RBSP Earth->Moon Radiation SDO Solar Dynamics 2006 2010 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 Explorers, single objective, strategically selected to respond to new knowledge/decision points, Recommendation: 1 launch per 2 years THEMIS Magnetic Substorms AIM Noctilucent Clouds IBEX Interstellar Boundary MIDEX SMEX MIDEX SMEX MIDEX SMEX 2006 2010 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034

13 Partnership No Resource In Development Recommended Step 11: Recommendation for program that optimizes needs for objective #10 Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #13 Low- to mid cost, multi-objective, strategically planned for fundamental space physics and space weather investigations Recommendation: 1 launch per 2-3 years STEREO CME Propagation MMS Reconnection Solar B Solar Mag Fields 2006 2010 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 * Low- to mid-cost, multi-objective, strategically targeted for Life and Society Science investigations, Recommended: 1 launch per 2-3 years RBSP Earth->Moon Radiation Solar Probe Inner Helio Boundary SDO Solar Dynamics 2006 2010 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 Potential Explorer: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Potential Discovery/Scout: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Explorers, single objective, strategically selected to respond to new knowledge/decision points, Recommendation: 1 launch per 2 years THEMIS Magnetic Substorms AIM Noctilucent Clouds IBEX Interstellar Boundary MIDEX SMEX MIDEX SMEX MIDEX SMEX 2006 2010 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034

14 Sun-Solar System Connection
Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #14 Sun-Solar System Connection APIO-level Committee NASA HQ Co-Chair: Al Diaz (NASA HQ) Center Co-chair: Tom Moore (NASA GSFC) External Co-chair: Tim Killeen (NCAR) Directorate Coordinator: Barbara Giles (NASA HQ) APIO Coordinator: Azita Valinia (NASA GSFC) Committee Members: Scott Denning (Colorado State University) Jeffrey Forbes (Univ of Colorado) Stephen Fuselier (Lockheed Martin) William Gibson (Southwest Research Institute) Don Hassler (Southwest Research Institute) Todd Hoeksema (Stanford Univ.) FRC Chair Craig Kletzing (Univ. Of Iowa) Edward Lu (NASA/JSC) Victor Pizzo (NOAA) James Russell (Hampton University) James Slavin (NASA GSFC) Michelle Thomsen (LANL) Warren Wiscombe (NASA GSFC) Ex Officio members: Donald Anderson (NASA HQ) Dick Fisher (NASA HQ) Rosamond Kinzler (Amer. Mus. of Natural History) Mark Weyland (Space Radiation Analysis Group, JSC) Michael Wargo (NASA HQ) Al Shafer (Office of the Secretary of Defense) Systems Engineers: John Azzolini (GSFC) Tim Van Sant (GSFC) Sun-Solar System Foundation Roadmap Team External Chair: Todd Hoeksema, Stanford University Center Co-Chair: Thomas Moore, NASA/GSFC HQ Coordinator: Barbara Giles Markus Aschwanden, Lockheed-Martin Donald Anderson, NASA/HQ Scott Bailey, University of Alaska Thomas Bogdan, NCAR Cynthia Cattell, University of Minnesota Gregory Earle, Univ. of Texas at Dallas Joseph Fennell, Aerospace Corp. Jeffrey Forbes, University of Colorado Stephen Fuselier (Lockheed Martin) Glynn Germany, University of Alabama in Huntsville Nat Gopalswamy, NASA/GSFC Donald Hassler, Southwest Research Institute Rosamond Kinzler, American Museum of Natural History Craig Kletzing, University of Iowa Barry LaBonte, JHU/Applied Physics Lab Michael Liemohn, University of Michigan Paulett Liewer, NASA/JPL Neil Murphy, NASA/JPL Edmond Roelof, JHU/Applied Physics Lab James Russell, Hampton University James Slavin (NASA GSFC) Leonard Strachan, Smithsonian Astro Observatory Sun-Solar System Connection Phase 1 Worksheets Roadmap Activities NRC update to Space Physics Decadal Survey Sep. 2004 Solar Sail technology workshop Sep , 2004 Roadmap working team meeting Oct. 5-6, 2004 Advisory Committee review of progress Nov. 3-5, 2004 Community-led imaging technology workshop Nov. 9-10, 2004 Community-wide roadmap workshop Nov , 2004 Roadmap working team meeting Nov , 2004 Roadmap working team meeting Jan , 2005 Update to NRC Space Studies Board CSSP Feb. 8, 2005 SRM#10 committee meeting #1 Feb , 2005 Half-day bilateral meetings with other US Government agencies Late Feb/Early March Advisory Committee review of progress February 28-March 2 SMD International Strategic Conference on Roadmaps March 8-10 SRM #10 committee meeting #2 March 15-16 Roadmap working team meeting March 16-18 Advisory Committee review of progress March 30-April 1 SRM #10 committee teleconference April 11 Roadmap working team meeting May 9-10 SRM #10 committee meeting #3 ~May 12-13 Roadmap review by the National Academy June 1

15 F1A: Characterize Magnetic Reconnection at the Sun and the Earth
Phase , Opening the Frontier Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #15 Required Understanding What mechanisms lead to onset of reconnection? What instabilities lead to global effects? To elucidate the role of microphysics, meso-scales, global topology and cross-scale coupling in reconnection What are the mechanisms and regions of particle acceleration within the reconnection geometry? Where are the reconnection regions and what is their topology? Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Solar wind conditions near 1 AU for information on drivers of geospace reconnection Simulation models that incorporate discovered microphysical processes into large-scale dynamical systems to model complete reconnection process, including cross-scale coupling and large scale topology In situ electron and ion temporal-scale particle distributions, and 3D fields from quasi-static to electron plasma frequency within reconnection regions on satellite clusters with variable spacing from few km to 100’s km Multi-wavelength, high-resolution solar imaging to reveal dynamics of solar magnetic fields from photosphere through corona Implementation Phase 1: STP Program NASA or Other Agencies Existing Assets MMS To fully resolve microphysics and cross-scale coupling processes of reconnection using in-situ at the Earth’s magnetosphere relevant to reconnection throughout cosmos L1 Monitor - solar wind conditions Auroral Imaging - to monitor substorm onsets and energy dissipation Cluster, TRACE, Polar To further focus design of MMS and Solar Imager on cross-scale coupling scales inherent in reconnection, to design indirect reconnection observation techniques at other solar system bodies. Theory/Modeling To apply insights obtained from in situ observations of geospace reconnection to large scale simulations to enable predictive capabilities at the Sun and Earth Complementary missions for study of precursors or results of reconnection THEMIS -substorm dynamics Solar B -solar magnetic fields STEREO- CMEs RBSP- particle acceleration SDO -solar magnetic variability Explorer Candidate Solar mission - To determine global topology of reconnection at the Sun; to study 3d dynamics of magnetic field Solar System Assets Particle and fields at planetary magnetic boundaries to validate topology theory

16 F1B: Determine the Dominant Processes of Particle Acceleration
Phase , Opening the Frontier Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #16 Required Understanding Shock acceleration processes Role of seed particle population Coherent electric field acceleration Primary acceleration sites: - Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks Solar flares, Current Sheets - Bow shocks, Radiation Belts Magnetotails, Auroral Zones Termination Shock Role of magnetic field topology Thermal plasma (solar wind) acceleration Stochastic acceleration processes Waves, turbulence & intermittent processes Output Energy Spectrum and Composition Enabling Capabilities & Measurements UV Spectroscopic determin- ation of pre/post-shock density, speed, compression; ion/electron vel. distributions, charge states, abundances; Alfven speed, magnetic field, reconnection rates in CME shocks, flares, current sheets Multi-point in-situ determinations of mag- netospheric energetic particles & fields at micro/meso-scales Near-Sun measurements of neutrons, hard X-rays & gamma rays Multi-point In-situ measurements of density, temperature, velocity, energy spectrum, and charge state of particles; and electric/magnetic fields at coronal & heliospheric shocks Visible light Coronagraph/ Polarimeter for electron density evolution and flow speeds Neutral Energetic Ion Imaging of Termination Shock Implementation Phase 1: Existing Assets Enabling?? STP Program Contributing?? LWS Program Enabling LWS Program ACE, SOHO, Wind, RHESSI, Cluster, Polar, FAST, Voyager Current missions for particle acceleration STEREO, Solar-B For acceleration at CME/flare sites SDO For acceleration at CME/flare sites RBSP In-situ observation of acceleration processes, geospace sources of energetic particles Inner Heliospheric Sentinels Characterize SEP coronal source regions and emissions Integrated Empirical Theory/Modeling Program To guide the evolution of physics based predictive theory Enabling Potential Explorer Contributing?? Explorer Program NESCE [Near-Earth Solar Coronal Explorer] Characterize SEP coronal source regions and emissions THEMIS, IBEX Explorer Missions for particle acceleration at I/F

17 F1C: Set the Critical Scales Over Which Cross-Scale Coupling Occurs
Phase , Opening the Frontier Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #17 Required Understanding What determines the size of small scale structures in the ionosphere? How do scale sizes change across plasma boundaries? To elucidate cross-scale coupling in all regions from the Sun through the Earth’s atmosphere and into interplanetary space What role does microturbulence play in coupling to very large scales? What are the important scale sizes for coupling in the solar atmosphere? Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Current and near future in-situ, and remote measurements and imaging from SEC Great Observatory In situ particle and field measurements on satellite clusters with variable spacing New simulation techniques to incorporate turbulence on a microscale into large-scale systems Multi-spacecraft ionospheric measurements and imaging combined with solar input High time resolution imaging of multiple layers in the solar atmosphere Implementation Phase 1: Enabling STP Program Enabling LWS Program Cluster, Stereo, L1/ Earth multi-measurements To elucidate solar wind cross-scale coupling and the change of scale sizes across boundaries MMS To observe scale lengths of reconnection in situ and determine the importance of microturbulence SDO, IT Storm Probes To determine the important scale size coupling in the solar atmosphere and to provide input for ionospheric Theory/Modeling Program To enable predictive capabilities at the Sun and Earth Enabling Explorer Program IBEX To determine the important scale size coupling in the solar atmosphere and to provide input for ionospheric

18 Implementation Phase 1: 2005-2015
H1A: Understand Propagation & Evolution of Solar Disturbances to Earth Phase , Understanding our Home in Space Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #18 Required Understanding CME –CME & CME-solar wind coupling True angular extent of CMEs and shocks Radial profiles of CME velocity from Sun to Earth & Mars Correspondence between near-Sun and near-Earth CME substructures Radial Evolution of 3D CME structure Coronal and IP Drag force Radial evolution of shock standoff distance & geometry Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Coronagraph/heliospheric imager, radio-burst measurements of shock speed & strength from Sun to Earth Density, temperature and magnetic field structure of solar wind & CMEs within the first 30 Rs Use all available density, temperature and magnetic field info from the Sun to the magnetopause to model Sun-to-Earth CME evolution In situ field & particle measurements of CME structure at several radial locations Simultaneous imaging & in situ CME observations Implementation Phase 1: Existing Assets Enabling STP Program ACE, Cluster, SoHO, Wind -CME & shock parameters, near-Earth SW/IMF STEREO imaging and in situ CME observations from Sun to Earth, 3D CME structure LWS/TR&T MHD models of CME propagation & comparison with observations. Model fast CMEs Enabling LWS mission INNER HELIOSPHERIC SENTINELS CME radial evolution Contributing?? LWS Program SDO Solar Source of CMEs Enabling Flagship mission Theory Program Develop theory of particle acceleration by CME-driven shocks Solar Probe near-Sun CME structure Contributing?? Potential Explorer? Paulett asks: What is HS? Same as HIS???? Contributing STP Program SIRA -- Image particle acceleration site in shocks MMS Near-Earth SW/IMF

19 H1B: Determine Quantitative Drivers of the Geospace Environment
Phase , Understanding our Home in Space Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #19 Targeted Understanding Heavy ion influence on magnetospheric processes Ionosphere-thermosphere cross scale coupling Magnetic coupling and energy release (reconnection) Hemispheric I-T asymmetries Coupling between near-Earth particles and fields Radiation belts: local or diffusive source? Influence from above and below on the upper atmosphere Low and midlatitude electrodynamics Relative importance of internal and external drivers Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Multipoint ionosphere-thermosphere measurements Data assimilation in geospace modeling Continuous solar and upstream solar wind measurements Inner magnetosphere in situ and remote sensing measurements Coupled global geospace modeling tools Coordinated/simultaneous measurements in connected regions of geospace Multipoint measurements near a reconnection site Radial alignment of magnetotail measurements Substorm Onsets (nominally via Auroral imaging) Implementation Phase 1: Existing Assets Theory Program: IT coupling, RB physics, reconnection ACE, Cluster, IMAGE, FAST, TIMED, CNOFS, TWINS Enabling STP Program Enabling LWS Program Enabling Explorer Program GEC, MMS ITSP+ITImager, RBSP AIM, THEMIS, Modeling Advancements: Geospace General Circulation Model Contributing STP Program Contributing LWS Program Contributing Partnerships Rocket Campaigns: IT coupling, MI coupling STEREO SDO L1 Monitor, ORBITALS, RAVENS

20 H1C: Identify the Impacts of Solar Variability on the Earth’s Atmosphere
Phase , Understanding our Home in Space Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #20 Required Understanding Temporal and spectral variability of solar ionizing and dissociating irradiance Radiative cooling in response to energy deposition Tidal, planetary, and gravity wave generation, modulation, and coupling Parameterizations of turbulence and wave effects in GCMs Composition changes resulting from solar energy deposition Temporal, spectral, and spatial variability of solar energetic particle inputs Neutral & plasma dynamics, structure, & circulation Horizontal and vertical energy and constituent transport Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Spectral, spatial, and temporal variation of photon and energetic particle inputs over a solar cycle Global density, composition, temperature, and winds: surface km? over a solar cycle First principles data-assimilating models for predicting atmospheric structure and composition and their response to varying energy inputs Global imaging of the ITM Energy redistribution by tides, gravity and planetary waves and turbulence Implementation Phase 1: Existing Assets TIMED, IMAGE Enabling LWS Program Enabling Explorer Program Theory Program: Wave interactions, Coupling ITSP AIM Rocket Campaigns: Energy inputs, Atm. coupling Contributing LWS Program Enabling?Contributing? Explorer Candidate ITMWaves, SECEP Model Development: Whole Atmosphere GCM SDO UV input into system

21 H1D: Describe How Plasmas and Planetary Environments Interact
Phase , Understanding our Home in Space Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #21 Required Understanding Energy flow between plasma and neutrals Roles of varying atmospheric chemistry on heat, momentum, and energy transfer between atmospheric regions. Tidal, planetary, and gravity wave generation,modulation, and coupling. Plasma & neutral dynamics, structure, circulation, & instabilities Effects of planetary magnetic field geometry on energy and momentum transfer Morphology of ionospheric current systems Precipitation patterns of energetic particles. Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Simultaneous 3D plasma and neutral drift measurements Tomographic and occultation studies to quantify large-scale motions of plasmas and neutrals Constellations of satellites in complementary orbits to resolve space-time ambiguities and enable predictive models Measurements of 3D particle distribution functions from thermal to tens of MeV Empirical and first-principles models for cause and effect based prediction Implementation Phase 1: Existing Assets TIMED, IMAGE Theory Program To include cross-scale coupling processes, and effects at the upper and lower boundaries of the atmosphere Enabling LWS Program Enabling What Program? ITSP To understand sources of ionospheric structure, and responses to geomagnetic storms, EUV radiation ITM Waves To understand sources of ionospheric structure, and responses to geomagnetic storms, EUV radiation, and gravity waves GEC To understand the energy exchange processes in the current layer at the top of the atmosphere Rocket Campaigns To provide high resolution, coordinated sampling of key mesospheric and thermospheric regions Model Development To include assimilation for nowcasting and forecasting

22 J1A: Determine Extremes of the Variable Radiation & Space Environments
at Earth, Moon and Mars - Phase , Safeguarding our Outward Journey Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #22 Required Understanding High Speed Stream Associated Radiation Responses CME Associated Planetary & Interplanetary Radiation Responses Causes of Surface, Atmosphere, Ionosphere & Magnetosphere Environment Enhancements Variability of Space Environments: at & between Earth, Moon & Mars Internal Processes of Magnetospheric Radiation Enhancements What Processes Lead to Extreme Environments? Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Determine relationships of trapped & SEP fluxes plus atmosphere & ionosphere changes with solar-interplanetary conditions Measurements of atmospheric, ionospheric, magnetospheric & interplanetary environment enhancements & conditions of occurrence Assimilative & theoretical models to provide linkage between observables & near term plus future environmental enhancements Measurements needed from planetary atmospheres through interplanetary medium Implementation Phase 1: Theory Program: To understand responses of planetary (Earth, Moon, Mars) & interplanetary environments to solar and internal drivers Existing Assets TIMED, Soho, ACE, Cassini, Cluster, etc.: Extend environment data bases & inform on current environment conditions in support of model development & testing Enabling LWS Program Enabling LWS Program ITSP, RBSP & SDO Environmental measurements and to provide data for new model and theory development relevant to particle acceleration, ionospheric structure and responses plus measure variability of photonic input to Earth and Mars atmospheres. IHS At end to begin analyses of inner heliosphere SEP acceleration and propagation Model Development: To provide linkage between spatial regions plus source-response relationships Contributing STP Program Rocket Campaigns: Provide upper atmosphere and lower ionosphere responses to energy inputs and determination of atmospheric shielding efficiencies (has some Mars applications) MMS Additional environmental measurements and data for new model and theory development plus data on SEP magnetotail access Enabling Partnerships Any assets at moon and Mars during this phase that can be used??

23 J1C: Nowcast Solar and Space Weather and Forecast “all-clear” Periods
for Space Explorers near Earth - Phase , Safeguarding our Outward Journey Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #23 Required Understanding Origin of fast and slow solar wind Propagation of solar wind transients CME buildup (incl subsurface) CME initiation / trigger secular evolution of corona (non-CME) Origin of SEP events and relation to CMEs and other active phenomena Coronal hole origin and relation to open flux Propagation and evolution of ambient global solar wind Propagation of solar energetic particles We need to be able to trace three separate things through this chart: Nowcast solar disturbances Nowcast space weather between Earth and Moon Forecast “all clear” between Earth and Moon (3 days??) And we have to use only the assets we will have between now and 2015 (see resources chart) … boxes need to reflect those “Understandings” and measurements Conditions for Radiation Belts and for Ionospheric-related communication/drag disturbances important too! Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Integrated sun-Earth models using much improved solar inputs and including energetic particle generation/acceleration Multi-view magnetograph observations, coronal magnetic field measurements Multi-view remote-sensing observations (white light, XUV, radio-wave), multi-point in-situ observations (plasma, field, particles) Solar polar magnetic field observations Subsurface flow diagnostics Far side detection In situ coronal observations (acceleration) Implementation Phase 1: Current missions A,B Prototyping: ACE, SOHO, STEREO, WIND, SDO, Solar B Theory Program To understand …. Mission C To provide more complete info Doppler, HS, JANUS, PASO, Sentinels, SEPP, Shields,SIRA, SWB Recommended ??? Mission Potential Explorer Mission Mission D More difficult observations SO, SPI, SP, TLM Model Development Sun-Earth models incl particles This list is impossible for phase 1 … refer to resources/recommendation pages and make recommendations for slots that are available … try format in F2A?? Rocket Campaigns To inform on ….

24 Sun-Solar System Connection
Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #24 Sun-Solar System Connection APIO-level Committee NASA HQ Co-Chair: Al Diaz (NASA HQ) Center Co-chair: Tom Moore (NASA GSFC) External Co-chair: Tim Killeen (NCAR) Directorate Coordinator: Barbara Giles (NASA HQ) APIO Coordinator: Azita Valinia (NASA GSFC) Committee Members: Scott Denning (Colorado State University) Jeffrey Forbes (Univ of Colorado) Stephen Fuselier (Lockheed Martin) William Gibson (Southwest Research Institute) Don Hassler (Southwest Research Institute) Todd Hoeksema (Stanford Univ.) FRC Chair Craig Kletzing (Univ. Of Iowa) Edward Lu (NASA/JSC) Victor Pizzo (NOAA) James Russell (Hampton University) James Slavin (NASA GSFC) Michelle Thomsen (LANL) Warren Wiscombe (NASA GSFC) Ex Officio members: Donald Anderson (NASA HQ) Dick Fisher (NASA HQ) Rosamond Kinzler (Amer. Mus. of Natural History) Mark Weyland (Space Radiation Analysis Group, JSC) Michael Wargo (NASA HQ) Al Shafer (Office of the Secretary of Defense) Systems Engineers: John Azzolini (GSFC) Tim Van Sant (GSFC) Sun-Solar System Foundation Roadmap Team External Chair: Todd Hoeksema, Stanford University Center Co-Chair: Thomas Moore, NASA/GSFC HQ Coordinator: Barbara Giles Markus Aschwanden, Lockheed-Martin Donald Anderson, NASA/HQ Scott Bailey, University of Alaska Thomas Bogdan, NCAR Cynthia Cattell, University of Minnesota Gregory Earle, Univ. of Texas at Dallas Joseph Fennell, Aerospace Corp. Jeffrey Forbes, University of Colorado Stephen Fuselier (Lockheed Martin) Glynn Germany, University of Alabama in Huntsville Nat Gopalswamy, NASA/GSFC Donald Hassler, Southwest Research Institute Rosamond Kinzler, American Museum of Natural History Craig Kletzing, University of Iowa Barry LaBonte, JHU/Applied Physics Lab Michael Liemohn, University of Michigan Paulett Liewer, NASA/JPL Neil Murphy, NASA/JPL Edmond Roelof, JHU/Applied Physics Lab James Russell, Hampton University James Slavin (NASA GSFC) Leonard Strachan, Smithsonian Astro Observatory Sun-Solar System Connection Phase 2 Worksheets Roadmap Activities NRC update to Space Physics Decadal Survey Sep. 2004 Solar Sail technology workshop Sep , 2004 Roadmap working team meeting Oct. 5-6, 2004 Advisory Committee review of progress Nov. 3-5, 2004 Community-led imaging technology workshop Nov. 9-10, 2004 Community-wide roadmap workshop Nov , 2004 Roadmap working team meeting Nov , 2004 Roadmap working team meeting Jan , 2005 Update to NRC Space Studies Board CSSP Feb. 8, 2005 SRM#10 committee meeting #1 Feb , 2005 Half-day bilateral meetings with other US Government agencies Late Feb/Early March Advisory Committee review of progress February 28-March 2 SMD International Strategic Conference on Roadmaps March 8-10 SRM #10 committee meeting #2 March 15-16 Roadmap working team meeting March 16-18 Advisory Committee review of progress March 30-April 1 SRM #10 committee teleconference April 11 Roadmap working team meeting May 9-10 SRM #10 committee meeting #3 ~May 12-13 Roadmap review by the National Academy June 1

25 F2A: Understand the Magnetic Processes that drive Space Weather
Targeted Outcome: Phase , Opening the Frontier Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #25 Required Understanding Dominant processes controlling reconnection and acceleration Critical parameters that determine coupling phenomena across multiscalar interfaces Source driver for solar/stellar dynamos How processes accessible in the Earth’s magnetosphere relate to other planetary magnetic systems Dynamics and topology of magnetospheres as a function of internal and external drivers Creation and evolution of planetary dynamos Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Remote and in situ near-Sun particle and field observations Large scale observations of magnetically controlled phenomena Hybrid computer algorithms for complex cross-scale models Community access to system level Sun-Earth models Spatially and temporally resolved observations of multiscale interface regions Sun-Corona, SW-CME, SW-Mag, Mag-IT, IT-Atm, Helio-Interstellar Assumes launch of Solar-B, STEREO, MMS, SDO, RBSP, THEMIS, IBEX, LWS FUV Imager Great Observatory Implementation Phase 2: Mission to provide a comparative magnetosphere to test understanding Potential Discovery MagCon – will provide configuration of plasma and mag field for large scale mag system, provide information on acceleration and reconnection STP Program Enabling Solar Probe – will provide obs of acceleration process near sun Flagship mission Enabling Sentinels – will provide the large scale system dynamics LWS missions Enabling Mission to provide dynamics and topology of large scale magnetic system and coupling parameters Potential Explorer ITSP – will provide the coupling parameters LWS Program Contributing GEC – will provide the coupling phenomena of IT-Atm system STP Program Contributing Model/Theory Development Community wide modeling workshops focusing on model development + Theory Program US: L1 Monitor Foreign: ORBITALS, Ravens, Solar Obiter Other Agencies

26 F2B: Quantify particle acceleration for key regions of exploration
Targeted Outcome: Phase , Opening the Frontier Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #26 Required Understanding Quantify the critical parameters that drive acceleration phenomena across shock boundaries Key regions of exploration identified in phase 1 Identify dominant processes controlling stochastic acceleration Quantify the dynamics of magnetic topology and electric fields in key regions Determine the role of parallel DC electric field, Alfvén and low frequency waves in acceleration process Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Remote and in situ particle and field observations of the corona and near-Sun acceleration regions Hybrid computer algorithms focused on shock region models in key regions In situ and remote high temporal, spectral and spatial resolution observations in connected acceleration regions in near-Earth region Models to quantify the interaction of multiple acceleration mechanisms in key regions Spatially and temporally resolved observations of shock interface in key regions (Sun-Corona, SW-CME-CIR, CME-Mag, Helio-Interstellar) Implementation Phase 2: Assumes launch of Solar-B, STEREO, MMS, SDO, RBSP, THEMIS, IBEX, Cluster, ITSP, L1 monitor Great Observatory Mission to observe in situ and quantify interplanetary acceleration processes at shock boundaries Potential Discovery AAMP – mission to quantify the acceleration processes probing the readily available near Earth environment. STP Program Enabling Solar Probe – will provide obs of acceleration process near sun Flagship mission Enabling Mission to observe and quantify acceleration processes associated with electric field in a magnetized environment Potential Explorer SEPP - quantify critical parameters for the source regions and the SEP outputs LWS missions Enabling MTRAP - mission to explore the solar acceleration region dominated by magnetic pressure STP Program Contributing Model/Theory Development - Community wide modeling workshops focusing on model development + Theory Program US: L1 Monitor, ATST Foreign: ORBITALS, Ravens, Solar Obiter Other Agencies Sentinels – will observe heliospheric acceleration shock regions created by CMEs LWS Program Contributing

27 F2C: Quantifying Coupling Mechanisms at Critical Interfaces
Targeted Outcome: Phase , Opening the Frontier Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #27 Required Understanding Transfer of solar wind information through global current systems Controllers of mass and energy flow between the solar wind and geospace Feedback of the ionosphere on magnetospheric electrodynamics Detailed coupling of magnetotail dynamics to the polar region Transition of solar eruptive events from release to propagation Chemical & dynamical coupling between ITM disturbances & the lower atmosphere Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Global scale neutral winds, ionospheric densities & drifts Global characterization of the current systems linking geospace using swarms of satellites Multi-point measurements of solar wind and dayside magnetopause Satellite observations of atmospheric chemistry & key dynamical features Simultaneous measurement of solar reconnection features and heliospheric density structures Simultaneous multi-point characterization of the magnetotail and imaging of the auroral oval Two-way-coupled modeling capabilities Implementation Phase 2: MMS, ITSP, RBSP, SDO, STEREO The existing Great Observatory provides necessary measurements to understand the linkages Theory/Modeling Coupled models between regions of space to provide physical insight on mass and energy transfer rates ITM-Waves, GEC, MC, Sentinels These are the most important missions in this phase to address coupling mechanisms at interfaces Solar Probe, SEPP, MTRAP, DBC, GEMINI, AAMP These are missions that also could provide critical measurements for understanding linkages between regions

28 H2A: Identify Precursors of Important Solar Disturbances
Targeted Outcome: Phase , Opening the Frontier Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #28 Targeted Understanding Buildup of energy & helicity in coronal magnetic fields CME magnetic field orientation Relationship between CME shocks, flare/ CME current sheets and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) Relationship between eruptive filaments, active regions, CMEs, and SEPs Evolution of global solar magnetic field Relationship between global field and solar disturbances Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Coronal vector magnetic field evolution and subsurface field evolution Radio burst measurements of near-Sun CME shocks CME magnetic field evolution behind the disk UV Spectroscopic determination of Pre/Post-shock density, speed, compression; ion/electron velocity distributions, charge states, abundances; Alfven speed, magnetic field, reconnection rates in CME shocks, flares, current sheets On-Disk UV/EUV Spectrographic imaging for flow velocities, energy release signatures; Disk Magnetograph for magnetic field topology and evolution Near-Sun in situ measurements of charged particle distribution, comp-osition, waves & fields; neutrons, hard X-rays & gamma rays Visible light Coronagraph/ Polarimeter for electron density structure and evolution Implementation Phase 2: SDO for global magnetic field and active region measurements Solar Probe/ Solar Orbiter for near-Sun in situ observations SHIELDS for tracking disk features behind the limb SEPP to fully characterize coronal sources of SEPs, CME shocks and current sheets DOPPLER, RAM to identify disk signatures of CME, flare, SEP initiation SIRA to characterize CME shocks

29 See other charts, need to align missions with resources
H2B: Predict the Geospace Response to Solar Disturbances Phase , Our home in space Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #29 Targeted Understanding Ionospheric outflow causes and effects Global dynamic magnetospheric topology Hemispheric auroral asymmetries Role of gravity waves in I-T physics Solar wind drivers of radiation belt dynamics Near-Earth plasma loss mechanisms Equatorial ionosphere-atmosphere coupling High latitude electrodynamics Auroral acceleration physics Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Multi-angle remote sensing of ionosphere-thermosphere Data assimilation throughout geospace Continuous solar and upstream solar wind measurements Multi-angle remote sensing of inner magnetosphere Validation and improvement of global geospace modeling tools Coordinated/simultaneous measurements in connected regions of geospace Constellation of satellites across the magnetopause Constellation throughout the magnetotail Conjugate auroral imaging Implementation Phase 2: Existing Assets: RBSP, ITSP, SDO, Sentinels, STEREO, GEC, MMS Theory advancements: Particle acceleration, chaotic processes New Strategic Missions: MagCon, AMS, ITM-Waves, GEMINI, Dayside Boundary Con. New Explorer Missions: Conjugate auroral imagers, Tropical ITM Coupler, ACE replacement Modeling Advancements: Validation/verification of GGCM Rocket Campaigns: Conjugate/interhemispheric studies See other charts, need to align missions with resources

30 H2C: Determine the Habitability of Solar System Bodies
Phase , Our home in space Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #30 Targeted Understanding Quantitative drivers of the geospace environment Magnetosphere - atmosphere – surface coupling Impacts of solar variability on planetary atmospheres and surfaces Photochemistry of planetary atmospheres Energy redistribution by tides, gravity and planetary waves and turbulence Extremes of the variable radiation environments at solar system bodies Enabling Capabilities & Measurements First principles data-assimilating models for planetary bodies which describe atmospheric structure and composition and their response to varying energy inputs Spectral, spatial, and temporal variation of photon and energetic particle inputs to planetary atmospheres Density, composition, temperature, and winds: surface through thermosphere for planetary bodies Implementation Phase 2: Existing Assets: ITM-Waves Theory Program: Coupling in planetary atm. Strategic mission Mars Aeronomy Probe (MAP), Titan Explorer (TE), Venus Aeronomy Probe (VAP) Explorer Candidate Geospace System Response Imager (GSRI) Model Development: Planetary Whole Atmosphere GCM Rocket Campaigns: Coupling

31 J2A: Characterize the Near-Sun Source Region of the Space Environment
Phase , Safeguard the Outward Journey Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #31 Required Understanding Particle acceleration mechanisms in CME shocks and CME/flare current sheets Acceleration mechanisms and sources of the fast and slow solar wind Recognition of precursors of large CMEs, flares and SEP events responsible for major space weather disturbances Relationship between CME evolution and pre-existing solar wind conditions Relationship between magnetic flux emergence & transport and the solar wind Link between magnetic field and solar wind at all latitudes Enabling Capabilities & Measurements UV Spectroscopic determin- ation of Pre/Post-shock density, speed, compression; ion/electron vel. distributions, charge states, abundances; Alfven speed, magnetic field, reconnection rates in CME shocks, flares, current sheets On-Disk UV/EUV Spectrographic imaging for flow velocities, energy release signatures; Disk Magnetograph for magnetic field topology and evolution Visible light Coronagraph/ Polarimeter for electron density evolution and flow speeds Near-Sun in situ measurements of charged particle distribution, composition, waves & fields; neutrons, hard X-rays & gamma rays High latitude observations of fields & particles Implementation Phase 2: Integrated empirical Theory/Modeling Program To guide the evolution of physics based predictive theory SEPP to fully characterize coronal sources of SEPs, CME shocks and current sheets Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter for in situ sampling of inner heliosphere Doppler to identify disk signatures of CME, flare, and SEP initiation SPI or Telemachus To characterize high latitude source regions

32 J2C: Specify Spacecraft and Communications Environments at Mars
Phase , Safeguard the Outward Journey Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #32 Required Understanding Wave-wave interactions at all scales Parameterizations of turbulence and gravity wave effects in GCMs Neutral & plasma instabilities Plasma irregularities at Earth & Mars & effects on radio propagation Non-LTE radiative transfer Wave-turbulence interactions Dust, aerosol evolution and characteristics Wave-mean flow interactions Plasma-neutral coupling with B-field Lightning Enabling Capabilities & Measurements First principles data-assimilating models for predicting global atmosphere and ionosphere structure Archival and real-time global measurements of neutral & plasma density, B-field, temperature, winds Critical Regimes: Entry, Descent & Landing (EDL), 0-40 km; Aerocapture, 40-80 km; Aerobraking & Orbital Lifetime, km; Ionosphere km Electrical & Dust Environments Empirical models of global Mars atmosphere structure & variability Mitigate ionosphere effects on precision landing (GPS) Implementation Phase 1: Implementation Phase 2: LWS Program TIMED Mission To inform on tidal and tide-mean flow processes relevant to Mars IT Storm Probes Mission To inform on plasma irregularities relevant to COMM and NAV systems at Mars and between Earth & Mars ITM WAVES Mission To inform on wave-wave, wave-mean flow processes and parameterizations relevant to Mars What Program? Potential Scout Theory & Modelling Program To develop an Assimilative Model for Mars’ whole Atmosphere Mars Dynamics Mission To collect observations of densities, temperatures and winds km over all local times at Mars Theory & Modelling Program To understand waves, instabilities, and plasma processes that determine variabilities of Earth & Mars’ environments; develop surface to ionopause first-principles model of Mars’ atmosphere

33 Sun-Solar System Connection
Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #33 Sun-Solar System Connection APIO-level Committee NASA HQ Co-Chair: Al Diaz (NASA HQ) Center Co-chair: Tom Moore (NASA GSFC) External Co-chair: Tim Killeen (NCAR) Directorate Coordinator: Barbara Giles (NASA HQ) APIO Coordinator: Azita Valinia (NASA GSFC) Committee Members: Scott Denning (Colorado State University) Jeffrey Forbes (Univ of Colorado) Stephen Fuselier (Lockheed Martin) William Gibson (Southwest Research Institute) Don Hassler (Southwest Research Institute) Todd Hoeksema (Stanford Univ.) FRC Chair Craig Kletzing (Univ. Of Iowa) Edward Lu (NASA/JSC) Victor Pizzo (NOAA) James Russell (Hampton University) James Slavin (NASA GSFC) Michelle Thomsen (LANL) Warren Wiscombe (NASA GSFC) Ex Officio members: Donald Anderson (NASA HQ) Dick Fisher (NASA HQ) Rosamond Kinzler (Amer. Mus. of Natural History) Mark Weyland (Space Radiation Analysis Group, JSC) Michael Wargo (NASA HQ) Al Shafer (Office of the Secretary of Defense) Systems Engineers: John Azzolini (GSFC) Tim Van Sant (GSFC) Sun-Solar System Foundation Roadmap Team External Chair: Todd Hoeksema, Stanford University Center Co-Chair: Thomas Moore, NASA/GSFC HQ Coordinator: Barbara Giles Markus Aschwanden, Lockheed-Martin Donald Anderson, NASA/HQ Scott Bailey, University of Alaska Thomas Bogdan, NCAR Cynthia Cattell, University of Minnesota Gregory Earle, Univ. of Texas at Dallas Joseph Fennell, Aerospace Corp. Jeffrey Forbes, University of Colorado Stephen Fuselier (Lockheed Martin) Glynn Germany, University of Alabama in Huntsville Nat Gopalswamy, NASA/GSFC Donald Hassler, Southwest Research Institute Rosamond Kinzler, American Museum of Natural History Craig Kletzing, University of Iowa Barry LaBonte, JHU/Applied Physics Lab Michael Liemohn, University of Michigan Paulett Liewer, NASA/JPL Neil Murphy, NASA/JPL Edmond Roelof, JHU/Applied Physics Lab James Russell, Hampton University James Slavin (NASA GSFC) Leonard Strachan, Smithsonian Astro Observatory Sun-Solar System Connection Phase 3 Worksheets Roadmap Activities NRC update to Space Physics Decadal Survey Sep. 2004 Solar Sail technology workshop Sep , 2004 Roadmap working team meeting Oct. 5-6, 2004 Advisory Committee review of progress Nov. 3-5, 2004 Community-led imaging technology workshop Nov. 9-10, 2004 Community-wide roadmap workshop Nov , 2004 Roadmap working team meeting Nov , 2004 Roadmap working team meeting Jan , 2005 Update to NRC Space Studies Board CSSP Feb. 8, 2005 SRM#10 committee meeting #1 Feb , 2005 Half-day bilateral meetings with other US Government agencies Late Feb/Early March Advisory Committee review of progress February 28-March 2 SMD International Strategic Conference on Roadmaps March 8-10 SRM #10 committee meeting #2 March 15-16 Roadmap working team meeting March 16-18 Advisory Committee review of progress March 30-April 1 SRM #10 committee teleconference April 11 Roadmap working team meeting May 9-10 SRM #10 committee meeting #3 ~May 12-13 Roadmap review by the National Academy June 1

34 Required Understanding Enabling Capabilities & Measurements
F3A: Targeted Outcome: 2025-beyond, Opening the Frontier Predicting Solar Magnetic Fields and Energy Release Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #34 Required Understanding Solar surface and interior flows as drivers for solar magnetic field evolution on active region, solar cycle and century time scales Dominant processes controlling solar dynamo Dominant processes controlling magnetic structuring, energy buildup, storage, and release Characterize predictability of dynamo: analytic, statistical, or chaotic Characterize predictability of magnetic energy release Production of paleoclimate tracers of solar activity Whole-Sun remote-sensing observations (magnetic, velocity, XUV, EUV) Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Integrated solar interior-atmosphere magnetic models using observational inputs Active region coronal measurements of magnetic field, velocity, thermal fine structure Global heliosphere in-situ observations (plasma, field, particles) Integrated MHD/plasma models of coronal magnetic heating and stability Enabling: Implementation Enhancing: SHIELDS, SPI, Farside - remote sensing Stellar Imager – dynamo context SWB, SPI - in-situ Theory and Modeling: Predictability analysis of MHD systems RAM, MTRAP - coronal structure

35 F3B: Predict Solar System Particle Flux
Targeted Outcome: Phase beyond, Opening the Frontier Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #35 Required Understanding From Phase 2: Understand SW magnetic processes and quantify acceleration in key regions Understand transport processes of energetic particles in interplanetary regions in the Solar System Understand the source of dominant processes that create energetic particles at the Sun, in interplanetary space and within magnetospheres Determine the plasma populations throughout the Solar System Understand the energization processes across multiscalar interfaces that result in acceleration of particles Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Remote and in situ particle and field observations of key regions where energetic particles are generated In situ observations of plasmas within .5 AU that will Develop physics based models that predict particle fluxes within magnetospheres Develop physics based models that predict particle fluxes out to 1.5 AU using solar and innerheliospheric observations Remote and in situ observations in Geospace and other planetary magnetospheres in order to predict particle fluxes Assumes launch of ITSP, L1 monitor, SEPP, Auroral Imagers, Solar Sentinels, MTRAP, solar chronograph Great Observatory Implementation Phase 3: 2025-beyond Mission to observe quantify Mercury’s magnetospheric particle and plasma populations Potential Discovery Mission to quantify the particle and energy propagation through the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system Flagship mission Enabling Mission to quantify the dynamics of and particle interaction across the heliospheric boundary Potential Explorer Solar wind mission that quantifies particle fluxes within 1 AU and within Geospace LWS missions Enabling Mission to observe the far side of the Sun STP Program Enabling Mission that remotely observes the solar source of particles and impact of particles in Geospace LWS Program Contributing Mission to remotely investigate extraterrestrial magnetospheres STP Program Contributing Model/Theory Development - Theory and Modeling program focused on predicting particle flux and populations throughout the Solar System US: monitor of geoeffective solar phenomena (chronograph?) Other Agencies

36 F3C: Coupling in Astrophysics
Targeted Outcome: Phase beyond, Opening the Frontier Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #36 Required Understanding Cross-scale coupling of galactic magnetic field between interstellar medium and heliosphere The location and 3D structure of the interaction region between the heliosphere and local galactic environment Physical structure of bow shocks (termination shock) at heliopause, supernova remnants, binary star interaction regions, neutron star spheres, and black hole horizons. Cosmic ray interaction with heliopause Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Image heliopause using global sky maps of 83.4 O+ Determine isotopic and elemental composition, flow directions, speed, and temperature of pickup ions and neutrals with in-situ stellar probes Measure low-energy cosmic rays in situ with interstellar probes Image termination shock using energetic hydrogen atoms and radio detection (2-5 kHz) Solar sail technology to enable interstellar spacecraft Implementation Phase 3: Heliospheric Imager & Galactic Observer(HIGO) To image the interaction between interstellar medium and heliopause Theory/Modeling Program To simulate shock waves in astrophysical environments Interstellar Probes, Explorers & Missions To explore interstellar medium Stellar Imagers To explore the magnetic activity and heliopauses of other stars

37 Image activity in other stellar systems
H3A: Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Targeted Outcome to Capabilities to Implementation Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #37 Targeted Outcome: Phase 2025+, Our home in space Image activity in other stellar systems Required Understanding Nonlinear dissipative system of solar magnetic dynamo and predictability of cycles Develop and test a predictive dynamo model for the Sun and Sun-like stars Stellar cycles of various types of stars with different physical conditions will reveal the fundamental functional dependence of the dynamo on the relevant physical parameters. Influence of solar cycle on Earth atmosphere, climate changes, weather, and catastrophes. Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Observing the patterns in surface magnetic fields throughout activity cycles on a large sample of Sun-like stars Mapping of the stellar magnetic field and differential rotation using interferometric UV images that resolve starspots Multi-spacecraft missions with precision formation flying Space-based optical interferometry Implementation Phase 3: Stellar Imager With interferometric UV imaging, sampling many sun-like stars that exhibit stellar cycles Con-X, LUVO X-ray and UV spectroscopy of stars KEPPLER Sunspot transits and variability of stars Theory/Modeling Program To model stellar cycles with dynamo-driven flows in stellar interiors and surfaces and associated UV and optical emission

38 H3B: Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
Targeted Outcome to Capabilities to Implementation Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #38 Targeted Outcome: Phase 2025+, Our home in space Enable continuous forecasts of conditions throughout the Earth system and heliosphere Targeted Understanding Understand the system dynamics throughout geospace Understand the system coupling throughout geospace Understand the system nonlinearities throughout geospace Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Complete coverage of I-T system Mature data assimilation techniques Continuous solar and upstream solar wind measurements Complete coverage of inner magnetosphere Robust, mature, and fast global geospace modeling tools Coordinated/simultaneous measurements in connected regions of geospace Complete coverage of dayside boundaries Complete coverage of magnetotail Conjugate auroral imaging Implementation Phase 3: Existing Assets: MagCon, AMS, ITM-Waves, GEMINI, Dayside Boundary Con. Theory advancements: System nonliearities and feedbacks New Strategic Missions: IMC, ITC New Explorer Missions: Conjugate auroral imagers, ACE replacement Modeling Advancements: Operational transition of GGCMs Rocket Campaigns: Regular launches ( weather balloons)

39 H3C: Targeted Outcome to Capabilities to Implementation
Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #39 Targeted Outcome: Phase 2025+, Our Home in Space Determine How Planetary Habitability Evolves Required Understanding Energy redistribution by tides, gravity and planetary waves and turbulence What determines the habitability of planets Temporal and spectral variability of solar ionizing and dissociating irradiance What are the impacts of solar variability on planetary atmospheres? Composition changes resulting from solar energy deposition Temporal, spectral, and spatial variability of solar energetic particle inputs Magnetospheric – atmospheric – surface coupling Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Observational and predictive capability for spectral, spatial, and temporal variation of photon and energetic particle inputs over short and long time scales Operational first principles data-assimilating models for planetary atmospheres which predict atmospheric structure and composition and their response to varying energy inputs Global density, composition, temperature, and winds: surface - thermosphere for planetary bodies Implementation Phase 3: Existing Assets: ITM-Waves Theory Program: Coupling in planetary atm. Strategic missions Explorer Candidate MAP, TE, VAP GSRI Model Development: Operational Planetary Whole Atmosphere GCM Rocket Campaigns: Coupling

40 H3D: Stellar Cycles Required Understanding
Phase 2025+, Our Home in Space Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #40 Required Understanding Nonlinear dissipative system of solar magnetic dynamo and predictability of cycles Develop and test a predictive dynamo model for the Sun and Sun-like stars Stellar cycles of various types of stars with different physical conditions will reveal the fundamental functional dependence of the dynamo on the relevant physical parameters. Influence of solar cycle on Earth atmosphere, climate changes, weather, and catastrophes. Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Observing the patterns in surface magnetic fields throughout activity cycles on a large sample of Sun-like stars Mapping of the stellar magnetic field and differential rotation using interferometric UV images that resolve starspots Multi-spacecraft missions with precision formation flying Space-based optical interferometry Implementation Phase 3: Stellar Imager With interferometric UV imaging, sampling many sun-like stars that exhibit stellar cycles Theory/Modeling Program To model stellar cycles with dynamo-driven flows in stellar interiors and surfaces and associated UV and optical emission

41 J3A: Situational Awareness of Space Environment Throughout
Inner Solar System - Phase beyond, Safeguard the Outward Journey Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #41 Required Understanding Solar magnetic field evolution as driver for evolution of corona & solar wind Solar surface, subsurface and interiors flows as drivers for solar magnetic field evolution on all CME, active region, solar cycle and century time scales Relationship between solar magnetic field evolution, triggers and CME strength & propagation in inner solar system Ability to recognize precursors and triggers of large CMEs & incorporate in models Relationship between CME evolution, pre-existing solar wind conditions and energetic particle fluxes Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Integrated Sun-Corona-Earth models using observational inputs and including energetic particle generation/acceleration/transport Full-Sun remote-sensing observations (white light, XUV, EUV, radio-wave) Full-Sun magnetograph & helioseismograph observations, including surface, subsurface flow & interior flow diagnostics Multi point in-situ observations (plasma, field, particles) including 360 coverage in ecliptic at 1 AU; Assimilation of remote-sensing and in situ measurements of solar wind and energetic particles into predictive models Full-Sun coronal magnetic field measurements Implementation Phase 3: 2025 and beyond SHIELDS & SPI for full Sun remote sensing, sub surface flows Model verification Recommended ??? Mission Potential Explorer Mission SWB, SPI, Mars GOES for multi-point in situ SIRA +an explorer To track CMEs from Sun to Earth Hand off to NOAA?

42 J3B: Reliably Predict Atmospheric and Radiation Environment at Mars to
Ensure Safe Surface Operations - Phase beyond, Safeguard the Outward Journey Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #42 Determine/Predict Long Term Atmospheric, Ionosphere and Radiation Climatology Required Understanding Variability of Martian Atmosphere, Ionosphere and Radiation Environments Internal Processes of the Atmosphere Causes of Surface, Atmosphere, Ionosphere & Radiation Environment Enhancements Causes of High Speed Winds and Dust Storm Generation What Conditions & Processes Lead to Extreme Environments? Enabling Capabilities & Measurements In situ GCR & SEP fluxes plus primary & secondary surface radiation at Mars Remote measurements of atmospheric, ionospheric, & interplanetary environment enhancements & conditions of occurrence Assimilative & theoretical models that provide now casting plus near term & long term predictions of environment In situ Ionosphere, Atmosphere & solar-interplanetary conditions Measurements needed from planetary surface, atmosphere, ionosphere & interplanetary medium Community & program access to system level Sun-Planet models Implementation Phase 3: 2025+ Assumes, results from robotic surveys of Mars system (i.e.MD, MAP occurred) plus results from solar-interplanetary and Geospace missions (SDO, DP, SENTINELS, RBSP, ITSP, LRO,Lunar experience etc) as sources for model and predictive capability development Observation platform for Sun-Mars-line data with remote solar-interplanetary and in situ plasma-particle observations as a minimum plus Mars atmospheric-ionospheric remote and in situ observations from space and ground Continued Model Development: Provide linkage between spatial regions plus source-response relationships via solar-interplanetary predictive tools and assimilative NRT observations Theory Program: To refine understanding of planetary (Earth, Moon, Mars) & interplanetary environment responses to solar-interplanetary and internal drivers

43 Sun-Solar System Connection
Sun - Solar System Connection Roadmap - April 15 Interim Status Report: Slide #43 Sun-Solar System Connection APIO-level Committee NASA HQ Co-Chair: Al Diaz (NASA HQ) Center Co-chair: Tom Moore (NASA GSFC) External Co-chair: Tim Killeen (NCAR) Directorate Coordinator: Barbara Giles (NASA HQ) APIO Coordinator: Azita Valinia (NASA GSFC) Committee Members: Scott Denning (Colorado State University) Jeffrey Forbes (Univ of Colorado) Stephen Fuselier (Lockheed Martin) William Gibson (Southwest Research Institute) Don Hassler (Southwest Research Institute) Todd Hoeksema (Stanford Univ.) FRC Chair Craig Kletzing (Univ. Of Iowa) Edward Lu (NASA/JSC) Victor Pizzo (NOAA) James Russell (Hampton University) James Slavin (NASA GSFC) Michelle Thomsen (LANL) Warren Wiscombe (NASA GSFC) Ex Officio members: Donald Anderson (NASA HQ) Dick Fisher (NASA HQ) Rosamond Kinzler (Amer. Mus. of Natural History) Mark Weyland (Space Radiation Analysis Group, JSC) Michael Wargo (NASA HQ) Al Shafer (Office of the Secretary of Defense) Systems Engineers: John Azzolini (GSFC) Tim Van Sant (GSFC) Sun-Solar System Foundation Roadmap Team External Chair: Todd Hoeksema, Stanford University Center Co-Chair: Thomas Moore, NASA/GSFC HQ Coordinator: Barbara Giles Markus Aschwanden, Lockheed-Martin Donald Anderson, NASA/HQ Scott Bailey, University of Alaska Thomas Bogdan, NCAR Cynthia Cattell, University of Minnesota Gregory Earle, Univ. of Texas at Dallas Joseph Fennell, Aerospace Corp. Jeffrey Forbes, University of Colorado Stephen Fuselier (Lockheed Martin) Glynn Germany, University of Alabama in Huntsville Nat Gopalswamy, NASA/GSFC Donald Hassler, Southwest Research Institute Rosamond Kinzler, American Museum of Natural History Craig Kletzing, University of Iowa Barry LaBonte, JHU/Applied Physics Lab Michael Liemohn, University of Michigan Paulett Liewer, NASA/JPL Neil Murphy, NASA/JPL Edmond Roelof, JHU/Applied Physics Lab James Russell, Hampton University James Slavin (NASA GSFC) Leonard Strachan, Smithsonian Astro Observatory Sun-Solar System Connection END Roadmap Activities NRC update to Space Physics Decadal Survey Sep. 2004 Solar Sail technology workshop Sep , 2004 Roadmap working team meeting Oct. 5-6, 2004 Advisory Committee review of progress Nov. 3-5, 2004 Community-led imaging technology workshop Nov. 9-10, 2004 Community-wide roadmap workshop Nov , 2004 Roadmap working team meeting Nov , 2004 Roadmap working team meeting Jan , 2005 Update to NRC Space Studies Board CSSP Feb. 8, 2005 SRM#10 committee meeting #1 Feb , 2005 Half-day bilateral meetings with other US Government agencies Late Feb/Early March Advisory Committee review of progress February 28-March 2 SMD International Strategic Conference on Roadmaps March 8-10 SRM #10 committee meeting #2 March 15-16 Roadmap working team meeting March 16-18 Advisory Committee review of progress March 30-April 1 SRM #10 committee teleconference April 11 Roadmap working team meeting May 9-10 SRM #10 committee meeting #3 ~May 12-13 Roadmap review by the National Academy June 1


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