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Fixed-line retention and win-back strategies

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1 Fixed-line retention and win-back strategies
December 2011 Stephen Sale

2 Executive summary In most developed markets, fixed broadband growth is no longer offsetting declines in fixed telephony. Incumbent fixed operators are, of course, particularly exposed. This Viewpoint looks at some of the drivers behind fixed-line substitution and examines some of the strategies that incumbent operators are using to defend their legacy business. These can be summarised as follows: Multi-play discounting. Operators are providing customers with incentives to sign up for multiple services. Churn levels are demonstrably lower for multi-play subscribers, but bundling also has its risks. Segmenting the market with voice-over-broadband (VoBB) services and/or sub-brands. Operators can target potential churners with low-cost VoBB services. In some countries, VoBB has increased fixed voice usage and strengthened the fixed proposition. Building the value proposition around fixed broadband/TV/value-added services. This strategy recognises the diminished status of fixed telephony and focuses the fixed proposition around services that offer more potential for differentiation. Extending flat-rate pricing models into fixed telephony. Flat-rate plans have been shown to increase fixed voice usage in some countries. Countering call substitution is a key aspect of defending against line substitution. Offering discounts in exchange for longer contracts. The mobile market has led the way in exchanging lower prices for increased lock-in. Fixed operators are starting to apply the same tactics to improve customer retention. Improving the relationship with the customer. Fixed operators are getting serious about proactively managing churn triggers. Ultimately, it can be cheaper for operators to ensure that customers are on the most cost-effective tariff rather than risk losing them. Introducing customer loyalty schemes. Another technique borrowed from the mobile market, loyalty schemes will only be effective when the basic elements of customer service and pricing are right. The Viewpoint examines some examples of these strategies and assesses their efficacy. Case studies are included of the following operators: A1 Telekom Austria, Belgacom, BT, Magyar Telekom, Orange (France), PCCW, StarHub Singapore and TDC.

3 Recommendations Bundling is the key to fixed-line retention but operators need to tread carefully. Service bundling has been demonstrated to improve churn levels, making it a valuable strategy for operators. Operators need to be aware of two major shortcomings of this strategy. First, it can have a negative impact on profitability because market share is exchanged for revenue (in the form of discounts), and, without care, costs can be difficult to control. Second, operators can leave themselves vulnerable to the weakest link in the bundle. Poor customer service in fixed broadband or the loss of exclusive content could lead to a disproportionate impact at the revenue generating unit (RGU) level. If they are not already doing so, incumbent operators should shift the fixed-line value proposition towards broadband and value-added services. Operators need to adjust to changing consumer demand and accept that, for many customer segments, fixed telephony is no longer viewed as a primary service. It could be viewed as a ‘useful add-on’ to higher-value services such as fixed broadband and pay TV. These higher-value services also offer opportunities for differentiating fixed services from mobile. Operators need to monitor churn triggers. Easier said than done, of course, but this is critical. Managing the customer relationship is one of the most important factors in improving fixed-line retention. Operators are increasingly adopting a proactive approach to managing churn. For example, ensuring that someone is on the correct tariff could be less costly in the long run than aggressive win-back discounting. Operators should aim to increase fixed voice usage. Fixed–mobile substitution is a major trend in the market but is not necessarily inevitable. Fixed voice usage has increased in some countries, notably France and Portugal. In both cases, VoBB was used to segment the market and offer cheap voice to customers in bundles. Increased fixed voice usage can be a real strength to the overall fixed-line proposition. Loyalty discounts can work, but use them with care. Offering discounts for extended contract tie-in has proved effective in many countries. Operators considering using loyalty discounts should note the potential for a customer backlash (and potential regulatory intervention) as experienced in some mobile markets. Learn from mobile. Fixed-line players should consider introducing loyalty schemes. Mobile loyalty schemes are popular and it is likely that we will see more in the fixed market in the near future. It should be remembered that loyalty schemes will not make up for poor customer service or pricing. Loyalty schemes will be effective only when operators have got the basics right.

4 Fixed broadband connections are no longer making up for line loss in PSTN/ISDN and incumbents are particularly badly affected In Europe, fixed broadband growth is no longer offsetting decline in PSTN/ISDN channels. The number of PSTN/ISDN channels has declined in most countries: Markets suffering the worst are Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands and Norway (all with –10% CAGR between and 2010) in Western Europe (WE); Czech Republic (–8% CAGR), Hungary (–6%) and Slovenia (–8% ) are worst affected in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Russia is the only exception.1 It experienced strong growth up to 2008 as operators made greenfield investments in expanding voice coverage, but PSTN/ISDN has subsequently declined as operators have shifted focus. The number of fixed broadband channels has increased in all countries but growth is slowing as markets reach saturation and mobile broadband services gain traction (albeit modest in most markets). Incumbent fixed operators are most exposed to PSTN/ISDN loss and in liberalised markets have had to share the benefits of broadband growth. Accordingly, incumbent fixed channels are in steady decline. Figure 1: Fixed channels in Europe (excluding Russia and Ukraine), 1Q  2004–1Q 2011 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011] Figure 2: Incumbent fixed channels in Europe (excluding Russia and Ukraine), 1Q  2004–1Q 2011 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011] 1 We have excluded Russia and Ukraine from the figures because of their large size and idiosyncratic nature. Trends in these countries disguise developments in other countries.

5 Fixed–mobile substitution is the major dynamic in the telephony market, but VoIP is also contributing to PSTN/ISDN line loss Figure 3: Voice traffic in Europe (excluding Russia and Ukraine), 1Q  2004– 1Q 2011 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011] Call substitution in the voice market is inevitably contributing to line substitution: As prices decline, customers are showing a preference for calling from (more convenient) mobile devices. At 2Q mobile accounted for 58% of voice traffic in Europe (excluding Russia and Ukraine), up from 29% in 1Q 2004. When consumers see their proportion of calls to and from fixed lines fall below a certain level, they may decide that going mobile-only is economically viable. This trend is marked in certain countries (for example, fixed voice household penetration was just 30% in Finland at the end of 2010). For the remaining PSTN/ISDN customers, unit prices continue to fall even as usage remains the same. There is little prospect for growth in traditional fixed voice services. Some fixed voice customers are migrating to VoBB services, which offer a number of benefits: Low-cost bundles of fixed calls have improved the appeal of fixed voice for certain customer segments VoBB is easily bundled with higher-value services such as fixed broadband or pay TV. Figure 4: Fixed voice channels in Europe (excluding Russia and Ukraine) 1Q  2004–1Q 2011 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

6 Fixed broadband is expected to sustain fixed-line penetration but incumbents will be increasingly vulnerable as the service mix changes We expect the penetration of fixed voice services to continue to decline, although not as quickly as some industry observers suggest. We forecast that residential fixed voice penetration (PSTN/ISDN and VoBB) will decline from 75% in to 71% in 2016 in Western Europe, and from 59% to 53% in Central and Eastern Europe. Individual countries vary.1 Increasing fixed broadband penetration will act as a support for fixed voice services, which will often be mandatory or included in competitively priced bundles. Fixed broadband penetration is forecast to increase to 72% in Western Europe in 2016 (up from 62% in 2010) and to 43% in Central and Eastern Europe (up from 30%). The rebalancing of fixed-line services towards broadband has a number of consequences for our discussion: Incumbent operators typically have a higher market share in fixed voice than in broadband. Their share of the overall fixed market may weaken as broadband grows in importance. The de facto combination of PSTN and DSL will become increasingly anachronistic with more ‘naked’ options appearing in the market. Regulation of incumbent retail services will loosen in many markets. Figure 5: Household penetration of fixed-line services in Europe, 2008–2016 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011] 1 For more information, see Analysys Mason’s Fixed and mobile voice services in Central and Eastern Europe: forecasts and analysis 2011–2016 and Fixed and mobile voice services in Western Europe: forecasts and analysis 2011–2016.

7 Incumbents have a range of measures at their disposal to counter the threat to their legacy fixed-line business Figure 6: Threats to incumbent residential fixed-line businesses [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011] The core business of incumbents is facing a number of threats. While incumbents can take a number of measures to refocus their business away from their traditional retail portfolio (for example, seizing opportunities in adjacent markets such as ICT, or shifting their emphasis towards wholesale services), this Viewpoint focuses on strategies to defend their legacy retail business of fixed telephony and fixed broadband. These can be summarised as: multi-play discounting segmentation of the market with VoBB services and/or sub-brands build the value proposition around fixed broadband/TV/value-added services extending flat-rate pricing models into fixed telephony offering discounts in exchange for longer contracts improved customer lifecycle management introduction of customer loyalty schemes. These strategies are elaborated on the following slides. Price and convenience of mobile voice Mobile broadband and mobile data on smartphones Altnet multi-play strategies OTT voice services (e.g. Skype) Alternative communications services (e.g. IM, social networking) Call substitution Line substitution

8 Outline of available retail strategies (1)
Figure 7a: Potential strategies for retaining and winning back customers [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011] Strategy Proposition Rationale Impact Multi-play discounting Offer discounts to customers taking multiple services Multi-play subscribers are less likely to churn Higher value per subscriber Potential market share gains at cost of overall value erosion Segmenting the market with VoBB/sub-brand Offer low-cost VoBB services alongside traditional PSTN/ISDN services May be offered via a sub-brand VoBB offers a means to attract high- volume callers with low prices Complements bundling strategies May drive usage but also risk of greater revenue impact Creates a two-tier fixed voice market targeting churners with cheap voice Building the value proposition around broadband/TV/value- added services Shift value proposition away from fixed voice and towards broadband, TV and/or value-added services Leverage higher-value services where differentiation is clearer (e.g. pay TV) Respond to changing consumer demands Potential to improve customer loyalty Market combined rather than separate services Extending flat-rate pricing models into fixed telephony Introduce flat-rate pricing to telephony, with calls bundled with access (if possible) Offer call packages to various destinations (international, mobile etc.) Bundle minutes into line rental to reduce the perceived price per minute Embed fixed voice usage into the fixed proposition Potential to increase usage, including fixed-to-mobile calls Could lead to negative price perception

9 Outline of available retail strategies (2)
Figure 7b: Potential strategies for customer retention and win-back [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011] Strategy Proposition Rationale Impact Offering discounts in exchange for longer contracts Offer discounts to customers signing up for long contracts Discounts for longer-term prepaid bills (e.g. line rental) Lock customers in to a longer relationship Reward ‘loyal’ customers Guaranteed revenue streams in the short term Could lead to customer backlash; tie- in is not the same as loyalty Improving the relationship with the customer Improve monitoring of churn triggers etc. Offer opportunities for tariff reviews and discounting ‘Prevention is better than cure’ More-targeted discounting can be more cost-effective overall Improved customer satisfaction Reduced churn Positive impact very much depends on effective implementation Introducing customer loyalty schemes Introduce loyalty schemes to fixed customers (may be integrated with mobile loyalty) Requires longer-term investment than discount Price reward for long-term customers Improve ‘emotional’ bond between customer and service provider Often hard to establish…

10 We have examined some of the strategies in the market to assess the impact of different approaches
Operator Service1 Strategies employed Performance1 Multi-play discount Segment with VoBB/sub-brand Shift value proposition Bundle voice calls Discounts for contract length Proactive customer management Loyalty scheme Fixed voice RGUs Broadband and voice RGUs Narrowband revenue Narrowband and broadband revenue PCCW eye series A1 Austria Telekom Kombi packages BT BT Broadband/ BT Together Orange (France) Various TDC HomeDuo and Fastnet Magyar Telekom Hoppá Belgacom Various StarHub Singapore Hub Club = Above average = Average = Below average 1 Given the limited public availability of operator metrics and the complex nature of consumer telecoms markets, we are unable to offer a precise account of the impact of a specific service. The performance metrics described here are the result of a number of factors including the wider product portfolio, competitor activity in fixed and mobile markets and macroeconomic environment. Impacts are given in terms of performance relative to a Western European average. See Appendix 1 for further details of the European operators covered here.

11 Case study 1: PCCW has halted line loss with a value-added services proposition and a range of home multimedia devices PCCW introduced a win-back strategy in Hong Kong in February 2005 and has reported steady gains in its fixed-line customer base (PSTN plus broadband) ever since. PCCW is rebalancing its revenue mix with a shift from voice to data over the IP network. This has delivered solid revenue growth in its core telecoms business. PCCW has driven value-added fixed-line services with the ‘eye’ range of home multimedia devices. Introduced fixed-line SMS and interactive services in 2006. Added video calling, TV streaming, secure transactions and an Octopus (public transport) card reader in 2007– 2008. Wi-Fi, touch screen, quad-play apps, and a TV decoder were added to the ‘eye 2’ device in 2009–2010. The new ‘eye x’ home smartphone is designed to provide mobile/tablet-like experience to customers within their homes. All supported by an next-generation access network roll- out and expanding IPTV business. Its service portfolio is complemented by targeted retention/acquisition promotions including discounts and free gifts, such as fixed handsets. Figure 9: PCCW’s residential fixed lines, 2003–1H 2011 [Analysys Mason, 2011] Impact No line loss since 2005. Solid revenue growth in fixed services. Increased broadband data consumption facilitating future ARPU uplift. Over 10% of the customer base take ‘eye’ devices. Improved customer loyalty for PCCW’s existing fixed-line subscribers.

12 Case study 2: A1 Telekom Austria is sacrificing fixed voice to stem line loss
Austria is an aggressively mobile market; over 80% of calls originate on mobile devices. Call substitution has occurred alongside line substitution and, until recently, rates of line loss were well above the Western European average. Since 2007, the Austrian incumbent has focused on fixed– mobile bundling campaigns, particularly following the integration of A1 and Telekom Austria in 2010. Fixed broadband is frequently bundled with mobile broadband (as a supplementary service for mobility) and mobile voice. ‘Naked’ fixed-line services are common. Another aspect of A1 Telekom Austria’s strategy is to launch aggressive discounting campaigns, typically targeted at customer acquisition. These tend to be temporary (lasting a month or two) and are often seasonal (they are common at Christmas): Its Kombipaket double-play deals offered a discounted price for life, until it caught the eye of the regulator. Recent offers include six months free pay-TV services and a ‘free’ laptop to customers signing up for an 18-month fixed and mobile broadband service. Figure 10: A1 Telekom Austria’s fixed access lines, Austria, 2008–3Q [Analysys Mason, 2011] Impact Reversed fixed access decline. A1 Telekom Austria recorded its first increase in 2010 (0.1%). Focus on maintaining average revenue per line, with or without fixed voice services, has been successful. Fixed voice usage is declining rapidly. Over a million customers had signed up for integrated fixed and mobile bundles at 3Q 2011.

13 Case study 3: BT is containing line loss at around 5% per year
BT’ was one of the first operators to bundle calls and access with its BT Together packages, first introduced in the late 1990s. Relaxation of retail regulation has since allowed it to further develop this method and calling plans dominate its portfolio. It has subsequently expanded its offering around fixed broadband. It has built a fixed-line proposition around the BT Home Hub: A single device for all of BT’s home services rather than having multiple devices enabling BT to market combined, rather than separate, services BT continues to promote its bundles with free or discounted offers, many of which are based on contract lock-in. For example: free Wi-Fi hotspot usage for broadband customers zero-rated weekend calls with an 18-month contract customers subscribing to broadband services for 12 months or more can add an IPTV service for GBP4 per month customers who pay in advance for 12 months line rental are offered a discount. Figure 11: BT’s active consumer lines, UK, 1Q 2010–3Q 2011 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011] Impact Succeeded in stabilising line loss at around 5% per year. More severe impact on revenue than most Western European incumbents, because the UK market is competitive. BT’s relatively weak position in the retail fixed broadband market means that it has less leverage in the multi-play market. Its share of retail broadband subscriptions was 29% at 2Q 2010, the lowest incumbent share in Western Europe. A competitive pay-TV market further limits BT’s opportunity.

14 Case study 4: Orange in France leads the way in reinventing fixed voice
The French market, in part due to the appeal of IPTV services, has led the way in terms of multi-play strategies. Faced with strong competition from unbundlers, the incumbent took a proactive stance on bundling. The Livebox router (and associated services) includes as standard: bundled IP telephony broadband and IPTV value-added services and content. Orange has effectively used VoBB services to create a two- tier fixed voice market: subscribers at risk of churn are offered low-cost fixed VoBB the ‘late majority’ and market laggards remain on traditional PSTN services pricing for the two types of fixed voice can differ markedly; the average retail revenue per PSTN minute in France was EUR0.14 at 3Q 2011, for VoBB it was EUR0.03. Figure 12: Orange’s residential voice lines, France, 1Q 2008–3Q [Analysys Mason, 2011] Impact VoBB subscriber growth has largely offset declines in PSTN/ISDN. Orange performs relatively well in terms of fixed voice RGUs. PSTN/ISDN revenue is down, but Orange has performed better than average in terms of the overall market: its rate of decline for narrowband and broadband revenue is consistently above the Western European average. Fixed voice usage (including VoBB) has increased in France.

15 Case study 5: TDC is working on a range of initiatives but has seen little improvement in fixed voice In common with many incumbents, TDC’s main strategy is to aggressively promote its multi-play portfolio: It launched HomeDuo and HomeTrio in January Triple-play adoption was 11.4% at 3Q 2011. Most fixed broadband is sold as double-play bundles through the TDC HomeDuo or Fullrate brands. The Telmore mobile sub-brand also offers fixed broadband. In order to ‘secure the relevance of PSTN and increase its usage’, TDC revamped its tariff structures in 3Q 2010: The basic tariff, Fastnet, costs DKK134 (EUR18) and offers calls to fixed lines for a DKK1 set-up charge only. For an extra DKK5, free weekend calls to landlines are included. The Fastnet Max package (DKK299 (EUR40) per month) includes unlimited calls to fixed and mobile numbers. TDC has also been proactively managing churn and launched a dedicated ‘save team’. Figure 13: TDC’s fixed voice subscribers, Denmark, 4Q 2008–3Q [Analysys Mason, 2011] Impact Flat-rate fixed voice packages have not led to an increase in fixed voice usage. The mobile price premium in Denmark has been negative since 1Q 2010 making it difficult to compete on price with mobile voice. Similarly, TDC has continued to lose fixed connections. Customer satisfaction levels with fixed broadband are low suggesting that the problems lie elsewhere. Fixed revenue (narrowband and broadband) continues to perform above the Western European incumbent average.

16 Case study 6: Magyar Telekom is offering aggressive loyalty discounts on bundles
Magyar Telekom launched revamped fixed-line packages in 2Q The packages included flat-rate voice plans (available via PSTN, DSL or cable), triple-play plans from HUF340 (EUR19) per month, with mobile add-ons also available. The Hoppá package has proved particularly popular: Includes 5000 minutes to landlines and 200 minutes to T-Mobile numbers. Aggressive discounts for multi-play customers in return for extended contract length (HUF2590 (EUR8) per month for a 2-year contract, if a broadband customer; HUF3090 (EUR10) for a 1-year contract; HUF4090 (EUR13) with no commitment). A quarter of fixed customers signed up ( at 3Q 2011), 90% have signed up to 2-year contracts. Take-up of multi-play services has been strong. Approximately 25% of customers are on a double-play package, with 18% on triple-play. The company also offers gas and electricity services in its bundles. Multi-play customers are less likely to churn (1-play – 17% per year; 2-play – 8%; 3-play – 5%). Figure 14: Magyar Telekom’s fixed voice subscribers and average usage, Hungary, 1Q 2010–3Q 2011 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011] Impact Magyar Telekom has reduced the rate of churn for its fixed voice services (PSTN and VoBB/VoCa) since the new packages were introduced. It has succeeded in holding fixed traffic at a stable level, with increased calls to mobile. These gains have come at the expense of lower fixed voice revenue. Its revenue decline has been markedly worse than most of the other operators included in this Viewpoint.

17 Case study 7: Belgacom’s segmentation strategy is proving effective
Belgacom is pushing a multi-play strategy around VDSL and IPTV services: It has reported significant churn reduction with the take-up of multi-play packages (1-play – 12% per year; 2-play – 12%; 3-play – 8%). Increasing tie-in with mobile (over 30% of new packages sold in 3Q 2011 included a mobile subscription). It uses packages to target different market segments. For example, it offers senior customers a PSTN and IPTV bundle and it has several packages targeted towards families. In addition, it uses the Scarlet sub-brand to target young people and ethnic groups (with telephony via VoBB). Belgacom is also rolling out (what were originally mobile) loyalty programmes: price-based (Premium Club offers discounts to high spenders; Play&Gold includes discounts as quiz prizes) events-based, including tickets to concerts, exclusive interviews etc. Figure 15: Belgacom’s residential fixed voice channels, Belgium, 1Q 2010– 3Q 2011 [Analysys Mason, 2011] Impact Belgacom is performing above the average for Western European incumbents. This is partly because of benign market conditions. The fixed voice market is holding up well in Belgium, although Belgacom is losing some ground to cable and other fixed players. Revenue declines in the fixed market are healthy compared to the Western European average for incumbents. It has succeeded in holding voice ARPU relatively steady at EUR20 per month.

18 Case study 8: StarHub Singapore further promotes bundles and rewards high-spending customers
StarHub Singapore is another example of a fixed/integrated operator that is extending its mobile loyalty scheme to its fixed customers. The Hub Club is a ‘hybrid’ rewards scheme – part points/part events – providing discounts and invitations to exclusive events offered to subscribers of all three of StarHub’s services. Customers get reward points redeemable against StarHub products and services, and some non-telecoms products; additional offers during their birthday month; invitations to exclusive events and competitions. Free fixed-line rental; discounted mobile (up to three lines) and TV subscriptions; an annual mobile handset upgrade. StarHub also offers a premium loyalty scheme called Platinum Club, available to customers who have spent an average of SGD350 (~EUR200) per month for six months. It offers premium customer care, priority queuing at StarHub shops, and discounts and offers on additional StarHub services such as installation. The Platinum Club is invitation only. Figure 16: StarHub’s residential customers, by number of services taken, Singapore, 3Q 2010 and 3Q 2011 [Analysys Mason, 2011] Impact The number of residential fixed customers continues to increase. Multi-play packages are well established (57% of households at 3Q 2011). Churn is stable in the fixed market, with ARPU holding steady. The precise impact of the loyalty scheme in the fixed market is unclear.

19 Summary and outlook Assessing the success of retention/win-back strategies Each of the strategies discussed here has merit It is difficult to assess the success or otherwise of the various strategies: The lack of reporting conventions makes comparisons difficult, and operators tend to be selective when choosing the metrics against which success is measured/reported. Markets are complex and a large number of factors are in play. Regression analyses are all but impossible. We have only been able to highlight correlations in this Viewpoint. However, the case studies do illustrate that operators need to make a number of trade-offs: Fixed voice versus fixed broadband (and other services). Subscriber retention versus revenue. (We could also add retail versus wholesale). Getting each one right is a balancing act; getting them all right would be extraordinary. Regardless of these decisions, the single most decisive factor in reducing churn is customer service, but that’s another story … Bundling can be effective, but there are dangers: It erodes value in the market. Operators may leave themselves vulnerable to the weakest link: poor fixed broadband, losing exclusive content etc. Many operators will be looking to shift the fixed-line proposition away from voice and towards higher-value services that differentiate fixed services from mobile. Operators in most developed markets should be aiming to increase fixed voice usage, possibly using VoBB to segment the market more effectively. Flat-rate bundles can further embed fixed voice usage. Offering discounts for extended contract tie-in has proved effective in many countries but operators should look to learn lessons from the mobile sector. Customer lifetime management is gaining prominence and operators are taking a more proactive approach to churn. Customer loyalty schemes are likely to feature more prominently in fixed operators’ portfolios. But, loyalty comes after customer service, pricing and so on. You need to get the basics right before a loyalty scheme will make any sense.

20 Appendix 1: Operator performance in fixed-line RGUs
Figure 17: Fixed voice RGU trend index, 4Q 2003 = 100, selected operators, worldwide [Analysys Mason, 2011] Figure 18: Fixed broadband and fixed voice RGU trend index, 4Q 2003 = 100, selected operators, worldwide [Analysys Mason, 2011]

21 Appendix 2: Operator performance in fixed-line revenue
Figure 19: Narrowband voice revenue trend index, 4Q 2003 = 100, selected operators, worldwide [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011] Figure 20: Narrowband and fixed broadband revenue (including VoBB and IPTV) trend index, 4Q 2003 = 100, selected operators, worldwide [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

22 About the author Stephen Sale (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason’s Voice research programme and one of the lead analysts for the Telecoms Market Matrix and Core Forecasts programmes. His primary areas of specialisation include consumer VoIP, fixed– mobile substitution and pricing strategies. Before joining Analysys Mason, Stephen worked in a number of research and marketing roles within the telecoms industry and has several years’ experience in VoIP and broadband access. He has a degree in economics and an interdisciplinary MRes from the University of London. Published by Analysys Mason Limited • Bush House • North West Wing • Aldwych • London • WC2B 4PJ • UK Tel: +44 (0) • Fax: +44 (0) • • • Registered in England No © Analysys Mason Limited All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior written permission of the publisher. Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any client- specific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only. Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark. Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party.

23 About Analysys Mason The only constant is change. What worked yesterday won’t necessarily work today. That’s why we look beyond the obvious, seeing things from a client’s perspective so that a truly effective solution is delivered every time. A key part of this is our international perspective. Business never sleeps, and with offices spanning six time zones, neither does Analysys Mason. Telecoms, media and technology (TMT) are our world; we live and breathe TMT. This total immersion in our subject underpins and informs everything we do, from the strength and reliability of our market analysis, to improving business performance for clients in more than 100 countries around the world. For more than 25 years, our consultants have been bringing the benefits of applied intelligence to enable clients around the world to make the most of their opportunities. We advise clients on regulatory matters, support multi-billion dollar investments, advise on network performance and recommend commercial partnering options and new business strategies. For more information about our consulting services, please visit Our subscription research programmes address key industry dynamics in order to help clients interpret the changing market. We analyse, track and forecast the different services accessed by consumers and enterprises, as well as the software, infrastructure and technology that underpins the delivery of those services. Many of the world’s leading network operators, vendors, regulators and investors subscribe to our programmes and rely on our insight on a daily basis to inform their decision making. For more information about our subscription research programmes, please visit


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