1. Economics and Timing of Migration to IMT-2000
Michael H Callendar C.Eng. M.I.E.E
(Past Chairman of ITU-R Task Group 8/1)

2. Mobile Generations First mobile generation was analogue
Second mobile generation is digital
Third generation offers multi-media communication capabilities, at higher bit rates, with improved spectrum efficiency
IMT-2000 is the ITU definition of 3G
Mobile has overtaken fixed users and represents the best option for improving global telecommunications access.

3. Mobile Generations
Source ITU (actual) and Deutche Bank (forecast)

4. IMT-2000 for Mature Markets
Most developed mobile markets are close to saturation, so most future subscriber growth will be in developing regions
IMT-2000 multi-media services can enable increasing operator revenues, even when almost everyone has a mobile phone
Improved spectrum efficiency, and/or additional spectrum, needed for higher bit rate multi-media services

5. Business Drivers in Mature Markets
Voice services ARPU falling and must be offset by increasing data service revenues
Cell sizes are already approaching the practical minimum size in some urban areas, so operators require improved spectrum efficiency and/or additional spectrum
Business case for IMT-2000 in mature markets driven primarily by potential future multi-media service revenues.

6. Impact of Data Revenues

7. Orange World Traffic Forecast

8. IMT-2000 for Growth Markets
Improved spectrum efficiency and global standards help to reduce costs
New “Smart” Speech Codecs, e.g. AMR and SMV, allow operators to adapt voice coding to local economic needs
Flexible evolution of mobile networks to IMT-2000, i.e. at an appropriate time for each specific market, minimizes operator investment requirements

9. Business Drivers in Growth Markets
Voice services are the major revenue provider
Service and handset costs are the primary considerations in most growth markets
Often significant barriers to increased data service usage, e.g. computer literacy and availability, plus more expensive handsets
Improved voice service transmission efficiency will be the primary business driver for migration to IMT-2000 in growth markets

10. Migration to IMT-2000
IMT-2000 offers various options to facilitate smooth migration from 2G
Some options allow upgrade to 3G within an operator’s existing spectrum, others require additional spectrum for IMT-2000
Migration options generally build upon existing 2G core networks, e.g. GSM/IS-41

11. IMT-2000 Radio Options
UMTS FDD
CDMA2000
TD-SCDMA
UMTS TDD
EDGE
DECT

12. Migration to IMT-2000

13. IMT-2000 Technology Forecast
Source Deutche Bank (May 2003)

14. Spectrum for IMT-2000
IMT-2000 defined by ITU technical specifications NOT by the frequency band
Most existing cellular bands identified for IMT Any “Mobile” band can also be used, e.g. 450 MHz NMT band
Multi-band/Multi-mode handsets can facilitate evolution from 2G to IMT-2000

15. Spectrum for Mobile Services
Source ITU

16. Profitability of Mobile Services
Most operator revenue from voice services
SMS the major data revenue component
Prepaid services can be profitable (AMPU)
MMS should create significant revenues
Mature markets focus on new services
Growth markets focus on cost reduction
IMT-2000 can address both requirements

17. Profitability of Mobile Services
Source GSA

18. Regional Mobile Growth

19. Middle Eastern Mobile Subscribers September 2003

20. Outlook for the Middle East
Middle East represents approximately 2% of the global mobile market
Rapid growth is forecast for the region
Wide range of different market conditions
Some markets still only have one operator
IMT-2000 already deployed in some areas
IMT-2000 offers benefits to most markets

21. Conclusions
IMT-2000 provides economic benefits for both mature and growth markets, e.g. improved voice transmission efficiency as well as new higher speed data services
Timing differs for specific mobile markets
IMT-2000 standards are evolving rapidly to offer greater efficiencies and capabilities
IMT-2000 will predominate by 2010