1. Fleet Numerical Meteorology & Oceanography Center Command Overview – Presented to Committee Operational Processing Centers 4 May 2010
CAPT James Pettigrew
Commanding Officer
Mike Clancy
Technical Director
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…

2. Outline Introduction Recent Accomplishments
Modeling Changes in Past Year
Support for NAEFS
HPC Systems
Model Performance Statistics
NAVDAS-AR Obs Impact Metrics
Upcoming Modeling Changes
Upcoming HPC System Changes
Overview and Status of MILCON Project
50th Anniversary Celebration
Summary

3. Introduction

4. Operational Excellence
The United States Navy is committed to excellence in operational meteorology and oceanography (METOC)
Fleet Safety
Decision Superiority
Information Assurance
We are stakeholders and partners in National capability
Key part of the Nation’s ocean & weather infrastructure
Expect to be a major player in NUOPC
Near-term goals (CNMOC)
Tighter link between forecasts and decisions
Predictive Oceanography
We are the Navy’s Operational Science Community 4

5. FNMOC Mission
We produce and deliver weather, ocean, and climate information for Fleet Safety, Warfighting Effectiveness, and National Defense.
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is the core of our business.
Global and Regional Operational Models
Assimilate meteorological and oceanographic data worldwide
Scheduled and on-demand products
Specific to Fleet and Joint operations
24x7 Operational Reachback Center
Supporting National, Navy, DoD/Joint, and Coalition missions
Direct Support for Global Submarine Weather
Data fusion for planning and operations 5

6. Surface Pressure and Clouds Predicted by NOGAPS
Models
Fleet Numerical operates a highly integrated and cohesive suite of global, regional and local state-of-the-art weather and ocean models:
Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS)
Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)
Navy Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System (NAVDAS)
Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS)
GFDN Tropical Cyclone Model
WaveWatch 3 (WW3) Ocean Wave Model
Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) System
Ensemble Forecast System (EFS)
Surface Pressure and Clouds Predicted by NOGAPS
15 km
0 km
10 km
5 km
60 m s-1
20 m s-1
0 m s-1
40 m s-1
Sierra
Owens
Valley
Mountain
Wave
l~30 km
Obs ~28 km
Cross section of temperature and wind speeds from COAMPS showing mountain waves over the Sierras

7. Example SATFOCUS Products
Satellite Products
SATFOCUS
SSMI and SSMI/S
Scatterometer
Tropical Cyclone Web Page
Target Area METOC (TAM)
Tactically Enhanced Satellite Imagery (TESI)
Example SATFOCUS Products
SATFOCUS Dust Enhancement Product
SSM/I Water Vapor
SSM/I Wind Speed

8. Models and Applications
Ocean Acoustic
Forecasting
Aircraft Routing
Automated High
Seas / Wind Warnings
Visibility/Dust
Forecasts
Aerosol
Modeling
Optimum Track
Ship Routing
Electro-Optical
Forecasts
NWP (NOGAPS, COAMPS)
Target Weapon
Systems
Search and
Rescue
Ice Forecasts
CEEMS
Ensemble
Models
Tropical Cyclone
Forecasts
Long-Range
Planning
Ballistic Wind
Computations
WRIP

9. Recent Accomplishments

10. Recent Accomplishments
Implemented 4DVAR atmospheric assimilation system (NAVDAS-AR) in conjunction with increased vertical levels in NOGAPS (T239L42).
Implemented first global aerosol assimilation system in the world (NAVDAS-AOD) to improve forecasts via NAAPS.
Upgraded the NOGAPS Ensemble with the Banded Ensemble Transform (ET) initialization to improve spread of initial ensemble.
Implemented wave height assimilation in our global wave forecast system WW3. 10

11. Modeling Changes in the Past Year

12. Modeling Changes in Past Year
NAVDAS
Local Area Coverage Winds
AVHRR, Rathera, Antarctica (May 2009)
NOAA-19 AVHRR Radiances (July 2009)
NOGAPS T239L42/NAVDAS-AR(Sep 2009)
AIRS, AMSU-A, IASI, ASCAT, SSMI/S
NAVDAS-AOD (Oct 2009)
EFS
Banded ET (Feb 2010)
Reduced initial spread in ensemble generation
Forecast extended to 16 days (Feb 2010)
Extended number of members to 20 (April 2010)
GFDN 3D POM in West Pacific (Jun 2009)
WW3 Wave Height Assimilation (Sep 2009)
COAMPS
60 Areas at 3 classification levels

13. Support for NAEFS

14. Success Rate for On-Time Delivery of NOGAPS Ensemble to NCEP for NAEFS/NUOPC
ISIS
BFT5
BFTn
Delivery By (0610z)
Avg Delivery (0559z)
Average Files per Min: 321
Reliability: 51.6%

15. Success Rate for On-Time Delivery of NOGAPS Ensemble to NCEP for NAEFS/NUOPC
ISIS
BFT5
BFTn
Avg Delivery (1813z)
Delivery By (1810z)
Average Files per Minute: 298
Reliability: 29%

16. FNMOC NAEFS Schedule
April 2010 – FNMOC delivers GRIB2 sample products for evaluation
May 2010 – FNMOC delivers “packed” ensemble products with 20 members out to TAU 384
July 2010 – FNMOC delivers ensembles in GRIB2 with 74 variables
TBD – FNMOC integrates delivery (CAGIPS) hardware upgrades

17. HPC Systems

18. FNMOC HPC Systems NAME TYPE CPUs MEMORY (GB) PEAK (TFLOPS) Disk (TB)OS
FS1
SGI ORIGIN 3900
256
0.7 30
TRIX
FS2
ATOS2
IBM 1350s/x440s/x345s
438
645
2.2 40
Linux
CAAPS
IBM e1350s
148
272 10
A2 OPAL
Dell Linux Cluster System
928
1800
10.0 65
A2 RUBY
1168
1170
12.0 56
A2 TOPAZ
280
1200
3.0 16
A2 EMERALD
1224
3672
13.0
A2 ZIRCON
TBD 20
TOTAL
4,698
9,271
~ 42.3
~ 332
Add row for classified systems in table (LINUX and TBD)
Systems are linked directly to ~332 TB of disk space and ~160 TB of tape archive space.
FS = File Server / Cross Domain
ATOS = Applications, Transactions, and Observations Subsystem
CAAPS = Centralized Atmospheric Analysis and Prediction System
A2 = Combined AMS / ATOS System
UNCLAS
SECRET
UNCLAS and SECRET
TS/SCI 18 18 18

19. Items of Interest Doubled NIPRNet and SIPRNet bandwidth
Acquired much larger DATMS trunks providing direct connection to AFWA, NAVO, and NOAA
Maintained all IA Accreditations
Became first Navy Command to pass a DISA Command Cyber Readiness Inspection (CCRI)

20. Model Performance Statistics

21. The Navy’s 4D-VAR data assimilation
Navy Atmospheric Data Assimilation System-Accelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR)
The Navy’s 4D-VAR data assimilation
NAVDAS-AR
Effective 28 September
Monthly Averaged NOGAPS SHEM TAU hPa Height Anomaly Correlation by Year
(1) Note that FNMOC implemented NAVDAS-AR, 4D-VAR data assimilation, to initialize its global NWP model, NOGAPS, near the end of Sep 2009.
(2) Thus, FNMOC became the first NWP Center in the U.S. to implement 4D-VAR operationally.
(3) Describe the figure, which shows NOGAPS Southern Hemisphere TAU120 (5-day forecast) 500 hPa (hectoPascal, aka millibar) height anomaly correlation, monthly averaged, by month and year. Direct attention to the results for Oct, Nov and Dec of 2009, for which the effect of transition to 4D-VAR data assimilation in NOGAPS is apparent. Note that the results for Nov and Dec 2009 are the best ever for NOGAPS in the SHEM, for any month and for any year.
(4) Note that, with NAVDAS-AR implementation, the skill level of NOGAPS in the southern hemisphere is now on par with that of the northern hemisphere, implying that the model is handling the satellite data (which dominates in the SHEM) very well.
(5) Note that we expect further improvements in NOGAPS skill in the coming year as we: (a) add assimilation of additional satellite data types (e.g., COSMIC, AMSU-B, MHS), (b) increase NOGAPS resolution from T239L42 (~50 km) to T319L42 (~37 km), and (c) gain more experience with the 4D-VAR data assimilation.
(6) Acknowledge NRL-Monterey as the developers of NAVDAS-AR and note the close and productive working relationship between NRL-Monterey and FNMOC.

22. Mar 2010 Vector 10m Wind RMS

23. Mar 2010 Vector 850mb Wind RMS

24. Mar mb Height AC

25. Comparison of FNMOC Global WW3 Wave Heights with Altimeter Data for March 2010

26. Verification of FNMOC/NCEP WW3 Multi-model Ensemble Against Altimetry Data

27. NAVDAS-AOD Validation
1) Convert NAAPS mass
concentration to aerosol optical depth
2) Two-D variational assimilation of the optical depth field
3) Convert optical depth to NAAPS three-D mass concentration
(ill-posed; simple conditional scaling scheme used)
r =.69
r =.83
NAAPS
MODIS
MODIS
NAAPS AOD
(no assimilation)
NAAPS AOD
(w/ assimilation) 27

28. NAVDAS-AR Obs Impact Metrics

29. Obs Impact by Instrument

30. Obs Impact by Instrument

31. Upcoming Modeling Changes

32. Current Thinking on Navy Global NWP
Fully support NUOPC
Continue operational transition of most-promising near-term NOGAPS upgrades:
4DVAR (NAVDAS-AR)
Semi-Lagrangian
Continue exploring the possibility of running operational UKMO/UM based ensemble (NAVO/MSRC)
Seek partnerships for development of a next-generation global NWP model for operational implementation at FNMOC ~
Link to growing Navy interest in: (1) the arctic, (2) climate change, and (3) energy conservation 32

33. Specific Plans NOGAPS T319L42 (May 2010) NAEFS
Expand variables to 73 (Jul 2010)
Receive in GRIB2 format (Jul 2010)
Expand variables to 80 (No schedule yet)
COAMPS-OS v2.2 with fully coupled COAMPS & NCOM (FY11)
Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM)
3D forecasts of temperature, salinity, currents, elevations
NCOM exchange of ocean surface fluxes with the COAMPS atmospheric boundary layer
Includes COAMPS v5 with Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)
COAMPS areas migrating to 45/15/5 km and 45 levels

34. NHEM Anomaly Correlations for NOGAPS T239L42 (Red) andT319L42 (Black)
500mb
1000mb

35. Upcoming HPC System Changes

36. Upcoming HPC System Changes
Node Expansion: add 100 additional nodes for various A2 systems.
Enterprise Storage: Increase by approximately 90 TB.
Archive Tape Library: Acquire for high and low sides to provide A2 Backup and Heirarchical Storage Management
VMWare Implementation: Begin using VMWare nodes for ATOS2 and other non-MPI applications on A2
A2 Infiniband Fabric Upgrade: Potential upgrade to increase speed of Infiniband backbone fabric.
Field and supporting the next generation of the Naval Oceanography Portal (NEP-O)

37. Overview and Status of MILCON Project

38. MILCON Project
$9.3M sq ft expansion/renovation of FNMOC Building 700 (Computer Center Building)
Adds 2500 sq ft to Computer Center for NPOESS IDPS
Expands Ops Floor from 1550 to 3200 sq ft
Expands SCIF Ops Floor from 1947 to 3012 sq ft
Expands SCIF Computer Center from 875 to 2240 sq ft
Expands Auditorium from 47 seats to 100 seats
Schedule
Design/Build Contract awarded Sep 2008
Groundbreaking May 27, 2009
MILCON project proceeding as scheduled.
Exterior walls nearly complete.
Phase I approximately 50% complete.
MILCON completion scheduled for April 13th, 2011. 38

39. FNMOC MILCON Project
FNMOC Building 700 Computer Center

40. We intend to celebrate Fleet Numerical’s 50th Anniversary in 2011
We intend to celebrate Fleet Numerical’s 50th Anniversary in Will culminate with dedication of the MILCON Project in April of 2011.

41. Summary Several of our recent accomplishments of COPC interest:
Implemented 4DVAR atmospheric assimilation system (NAVDAS-AR) in conjunction with increased vertical levels in NOGAPS (T239L42).
Implemented first global aerosol assimilation system in the world (NAVDAS-AOD) to improve forecasts via NAAPS.
Upgraded the NOGAPS Ensemble with the Banded Ensemble Transform (ET) initialization to improve spread of initial ensemble.
Implemented the coupled air-sea version of the GFDN tropical cyclone model
Implemented wave height assimilation in our global wave forecast system WW3.
We have embraced Linux-based HPC as we continue to build out our A2 cluster to accommodate the full range of our operational workload
Along with ONR, NRL, CNMOC, and OPNAV N84 we are exploring the way-ahead for Navy Numerical Weather Prediction
We intend to celebrate Fleet Numerical’s 50th Anniversary in 2011 41

42. Questions?