1. Teaching Ecological Economics: Climate and Energy
International Society for Ecological Economics
Washington, D.C. June 29, 2016
Jonathan M. Harris
This presentation was prepared for the CANUSSEE conference of the Canadian Society for Ecological Economics (CANSEE) and the United States Society for Ecological Economics (USSEE) in Vancouver, British Columbia, October 1-4, 2015.
Copyright © 2016 Jonathan M. Harris

3. Figure 18.1 Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuel Consumption, 1860-2010
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), accessed November 2013.

4. Figure 18.3: Per-Capita Emissions of Carbon by Country
Current per capita carbon emissions show a huge disparity across nations. U.S. per capita emissions are about twice those of Europe and Japan, while developing nations have much lower emissions per person. Some developing nations, such as China and Mexico, have reached per capita emissions levels similar to those of developed nations such as France. Considering the large populations of developing nations such as India, the potential for increased total emissions from these nations is very great.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, International Energy Annual 2008.

5. Figure 18.10 Carbon Stabilization Scenarios (450 and 550 ppm CO2)
Source: Adapted from Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis,

6. Figure 3: Business as Usual, Paris Pledges, and 2° C Path
Source:

7. Can Renewable Energy Provide a Solution to Climate Change?
Long-term link between economic growth and carbon emissions
Need to “decouple” economic activity from carbon emissions
Micro issues: Market pricing and policy actions determine speed of transition
Macro issues: An end to growth, or a new kind of energy economy? Or both?
Renewable energy is rapidly moving from being a “niche” option to a major alternative to fossil fuels. This suggests that the long-term trend of rising carbon emissions accompanying economic growth could change. But how large is the potential, and can economic growth and emissions be “decoupled”?

8. Global Energy Consumption by Source, 2012
Current energy use is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, with wind, solar, and geothermal contributing only about 1%.
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA 2013)

9. Availability of Global Renewable Energy
Energy Source
Total Global Availability (trillion watts)
Availability in Likely-Developable Locations (trillion watts)
Wind
1700
40 – 85
Wave
> 2.7
0.5
Geothermal 45
0.07 – 0.14
Hydroelectric
1.9
1.6
Tidal
3.7
0.02
Solar photovoltaic
6500
340
Concentrated solar power
4600
240
But the available sources of renewable energy, especially wind and solar, are much more than enough to supply all the world’s energy needs.
Total global energy use in 2006: 15.8 Trillion Watts
Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011); U.S. Energy Information Administration;
Stanford Engineering News,

10. Infrastructure Requirements for Supplying All Global
Energy in 2030 from Renewable Sources
Energy Source
Percent of 2030 Global Power Supply
Number of Plants/Devices Needed Worldwide
Wind turbines 50
3,800,000
Wave power plants 1
720,000
Geothermal plants 4
5,350
Hydroelectric plants
900
Tidal turbines
490,000
Rooftop solar PV systems 6
1.7 billion
Solar PV power plants 14
40,000
Concentrated solar power plants 20
49,000
TOTAL
100
Shifting entirely to renewable energy would require massive investment in new infrastructure to replace the current fossil fuel infrastructure. But the overall land requirement is not a high proportion of global land area, and in many cases can be combined with agricultural uses.
Land requirement: about 2% of total global land area.
(Can be combined with agricultural uses)
Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011).

11. Global Potential for Energy Efficiency
The potential of increased energy efficiency is about 50% of projected BAU energy use in With maximum energy efficiency, global energy use would grow only slightly in developing countries, and would decline in developed countries. Overall world energy use would remain approixately constant or decline slightly, as opposed to nearly doubling in BAU projections.
Source: Blok et al. (2008) Global status report on energy efficiency Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnerships.

12. Projected 2035 Global Energy Demand, by Source
A combination of energy efficiency and greater reliance on renewables makes for a dramatic difference in fossil fuel use projections for 2035.
Source: International Energy Agency, 2011.

13. Growth of Solar PV and Wind Installations (2003-2012)
Solar photovoltaic and wind installations are growing exponentially, thought starting from a very small base.
Source: Worldwatch Institute (2014).

14. “Levelized cost” including present value of construction and operating costs is now fully competitive for onshore wind and close to competitive for utility-scale photvoltaic, solar thermal, and offshore wind.
Sources:

15. Externality Cost of Various Electricity Generating Methods, European Union
But if we include consideration of externalities, renewable energy sources become fully competitive, having much lower externalities than fossil fuels.
Source: Owen, A. D "Renewable energy: externality costs as market barriers." Energy Policy 34:

16. Solar Energy Price Decreases, 1998-2013
Costs of solar energy have declined steadily with technological progess for both commercial and residential PV systems.
Source: Barbose, G., S. Weaver and N. Darghouth Tracking the Sun VII: an historical summary of the installed price of photovoltaics in the United States from 1998 to SunShot Initiative, U.S. Department of Energy

17. Projected further decreases in solar costs, 2015 - 2040
The solar cost decline is expected to continue, briringing solar into a fully competitive range even without subsidies or tax breaks.
Source: Feldman et al Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends: historical, recent, and near-term projections. U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative:

18. Cost decreases are both cause and effect of increased adoption of solar. Economies of scale contribute to driving prices down, and this trend is particualrly marked in recent years.
Source: Solar Energy Industries Association, “Solar Energy Facts: 2014 Year in Review”.

19. Declining Energy Intensity in Industrial Economies, 1991-2008
Energy Intensity- Btu per Year 2005 U.S. Dollars (1991 base year)
The trend of declining energy intensity in industrialized economies has continued since Note that since all countries’ energy intensities are given relative to a 1991 base, those that are already more energy-efficient in absolute terms (such as Japan) may have greater difficulty achieving even greater efficiencies.
Year
Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2011.

20. Source: EIA 2013. Source: EIA 2012.
U.S. Department of Energy projections show energy use per dollar of GDP continuing to fall, along with CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP.
Source: EIA 2013.
Source: EIA 2012.

21. Business as Usual Scenario
2035
2015
~1% p.a. growth in energy demand
120 units total
100 units total
100 units
carbon-based
Renewables
20 units
Renewables
10 units
90 units
carbon-based
Though the difference between a 1% annual increase and a 1% annual decrease in energy use seems small, it has huge implications over time. If we continue on a 1% per annum increasing energy use path, a larger proportion of renewable energy will do little good, since it will be overwhelmed by increasing overall demand.
Copyright © 2015 Jonathan M. Harris

22. Services, Efficiency, & Renewables Scenario
2015
2035
~1% p.a. decline in energy demand
100 units total
10 units
90 units
carbon-based
80 units total
Renewables
20 units
60 units
carbon-based
But with a 1% annual decrease in energy demand, the contribution of renewables (even with a modest projected renewable energy goal as shown above) can be very significant in reducing CO2 emissions.
Based on modest investment in services, efficiency, renewables, with no loss in employment (probably a gain)
Copyright © 2015 Jonathan M. Harris

23. Decline since 2007: 12% Source: US Department of Energy, 2013
After steadily increasing for decades, U.S. CO2 emissions fell 12% between 2007 and Part of this decline was due to recession, but policies and market forces promoting efficiency and a shift away from coal have meant that the decline has not yet been reversed, and emissions remain well below peak levels. Deliberate policy action could continue this trend.
Decline since 2007: 12%
Source: US Department of Energy, 2013
Accessed at:

24. US CO2 Emissions, 1990-2014 Source: US Department of Energy, 2016
Accessed at:

25. PERCENT CHANGES IN EMISSIONS DRIVERS, 2012
CARBON INTENSITY
ENERGY INTENSITY
PER CAPITA OUTPUT
POPULATION
percent change
Although 2012 was unusual, it shows the pattern that could lead to declining emissions: growth in population and per capita output is outweighed by decreases in energy intensity (energy use per dollar of GDP) and carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit of energy use). Reduction in population growth rates and, more controversially, in GDP growth rates, could accentuate this trend, but the evidence of recent years shows that emissions can decline even while population and GDP continue to grow.
Although 2012 was unusual, it shows the pattern of declining emissions: growth in population and per capita output were outweighed by decreases in energy intensity (energy use per dollar of GDP) and carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit of energy use).
Reduction in population growth rates and in GDP growth rates could accentuate this trend, and will be necessary to meet carbon targets, but there is a lot of scope for energy and carbon intensity reduction.

26. A good trend, but needs continuing….
Official department of energy projections for U.S CO2 emissions have steadily declined, partly as a result of Obama Administration policies. For the past four years, each year’s predicted “reference case” emissions path is lower, and this trend is likely to continue since the “reference case” does not include specifiic policies to lower emissions.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook ARRA2009 denotes the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

27. Public Energy R&D Investment
Public investment in energy R&D (previously mostly devoted to fossil and nuclear) is a very low percentage of Federal spending – about 1/10 of 1% of the Federal budget. R&D devoted mainly to renewables briefly spiked in 2009 with the sitmulus program, but has since falled back. R&D spending in other advanced nations is similarly low.
Source: International Energy Agency, 2014.

28. Policies for the Renewable Energy Transition
Subsidy reform: eliminate fossil fuel subsidies
Pigovian tax on externalities including carbon 
Energy research and development
Feed-in tariffs
Subsidies, including favorable tax provisions and loan terms
Renewable energy targets
Efficiency standards and labelling
Financing mechanisms with zero up-front costs
With renewable energy on the cusp of market competitiveness, active policies have the potential to accelerate the shift to renewables. These policies are backed by sound economics, including: internalizing negative externalities through taxes; internalizing positive externalities through subsides, tax breaks, and preferential financing; investment in R&D; efficiency standards; and renewable energy policy targets at the state, local, and federal level.

30. Carbon in Soils, Grasslands, Forests, and Wetlands
Carbon release from soil degradation and deforestation is major atmospheric carbon source.
Preventing releases from agricultural soils, wetlands, and grasslands would lessen human-re;eased carbon by around 20%.
Preventing further deforestation would reduce emissions by another 10%.
Enhancing uptake by forests, grasslands, and soils would be equivalent to reducing net emissions by an additional 30% or more.