1. Justin Paolini Boyscout Trading & his model of Title goes here
Forex System Development Workshop
Justin Paolini
& his model of
Boyscout Trading
Title goes here

2. FX Renew Disclaimer
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3. Welcome
G’day, Howdy, Guten Tag, Ni Hao, Вітаю, Hallo, Konnichiwa, Chào and welcome to this session of the Forex System Development Workshop.

4. Live and Interactive
Don’t be a Shy Sally or a Bashful Barry, ask questions, take your time.

5. Boyscout Trading Title goes here Forex System Development Workshop

6. About Justin
Industry Experience within CIBC WM, Salex SpA, FXCM & Masters Degree in Finance & Banking
However...
Could not avoid enrollment in the School of Hard Knocks
Without knowledge of market microstructure & participant behavioural patterns, learning curve is almost “too” steep.

7. Trading Style
Trend/Momentum Trader I work a 4-step rule-based model: 1. Idenfity the likely sentiment influences and the corresponding FX pairs, Commodities or Indices that should be influenced; 2. Rank the instruments selected, based on the quality of their trend 3. Execute the trades via pullback or breakout (whatever suits the ever evolving maket conditions) 4. Manage the trades based on space available (ATR), time objectives (intraday or multiday holding period), common sense.

8. The market type gives me a BIAS.
My edge is very specific and it comes from a keen understanding of 1 precise market type: a trend.
The market type gives me a BIAS.
I’m Flat or Long
I’m flat or Short
Look at the next 3 charts. In 10 seconds you should know what your Bias is on your primary Time Frame of Reference…..

9. 1. Market Type
A chart is worth 1000 words…
Clearly trending!

10. Mmm…not as clear…consolidation in a downtrend?
1. Market Type
A chart is worth 1000 words…
Mmm…not as clear…consolidation in a downtrend?

11. 1. Market Type
A chart is worth 1000 words…
Clearly Trending!

12. 2. Sentiment Overlay
“What is important is to assess what the market is focusing on at the given moment.” – Bill Lipschutz

13. 2. Sentiment Overlay

14. 2. Sentiment Overlay
- It takes uncertainty, or diverging opinions about the future value of something, to generate exchange.
Volatility is essentially event-risk orchestrated.
Strong Themes = Strong Trends
No Theme = No Trend
When Sentiment & Technicals align = high odds!

15. 3. Role of Entries Efficiency (MAE/MFE)
Risk:Reward (Multiple-R potential)

16. 3. Role of Entries

17. 3. Role of Entries
80% of my trades are initiated during the London Morning
No “gambling” on news events
Yes to “reaction” post news event (but you need to have done your sentiment homework)
“Don’t give up the Ghost until the London Fix is toast” means that after the London Fix, volumes drop and trade success can be limited.

18. 4. ATR Safety Net

19. 4. ATR Safety Net Importance of ATR is highest for Intraday Trading
Greatly assists in determining odds
Becomes Irrelevant when market is cooking on Risk

20. 5. Trade Management by Objectives
Intraday/Intrasession
Day Trade
Multi-Day
Position
“I only traded on the first day of the competition, then I simply managed the position”

21. 5. Trade Management by Objectives
Intraday/Intrasession
Targeting 70% of ATR and/or Previous Session Highs/Lows

22. 5. Trade Management by Objectives
Multi-Day
Stops around 70% of ATR, Targeting Weekly ATR Levels

23. BOYSCOUT TRADING Where is the action likely to be today/this week?
Which are the best candidates?
Execute
Manage (objectives, ATR, market behaviour)
Rinse & Repeat

24. Fixed % of Consolidated Equity
Position Sizing
Fixed % of Consolidated Equity
Ex Euros Consolidated Equity
0.5% per position = 0.005*10000 = 50 Euros
(50 Euros/(SL pips * pip value/lot))/100000
So a larger SL will allow for a smaller position;
a smaller SL will allow for a larger position.

25. Risk Management

26. The Three Most Important Things
Keep it simple & subtle (complexity will kill your account)
Use your common sense and train it. If something doesn’t look right, get out. If the coast is clear, don’t bail. But you can only make sensible assessments if you’ve trained your instincts by repeating the same analysis/decision making process time & time again. That’s why I’m in favour of systematic/rule-based methods.
Risk very little each trade. Survive to trade another day.

27. Questions

28. THANK YOU Title goes here Forex System Development Workshop