1. Achievements in Wildland Fire Risk Mapping
Acquis en Cartographie du Risque d’Incendies de Forêt
Achievements in Wildland Fire Risk Mapping
EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

2. Wildland Fire Risk Mapping
Deliverables
Wildland fire danger and hazards: a state of the art
Common methods for mapping the wildland fire danger
Towards an Euro-Mediterranean Wildland Fire Danger Rating System
Objectives
Analyse the structure of existing wildland fire danger indexes
Design an Euro-Mediterranean Fire Danger Rating System
EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

3. Wildland Fire Danger and Hazards: a state of the art (D-08-02, D-08-07)
Wildland fire structure and terminology on fire risk
Fire risk issues
Temporal and spatial issues
Fire management and risk assessment
Risk variables
Vegetation
Climatic and meteorological
Topography
Anthropogenic variables
EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

4. Common methods for mapping the wildland fire danger (D-08-05)
Methods for wildland fire risk mapping
Dynamic fire risk indices
Static-structural danger indices
Operationally applied methods for fire danger estimation in Mediterranean countries
Short-term
Long-term
Inventory of existing databases
Cartographic interfaces for the dissemination of fire danger indices
EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

5. Probability of ignition (human factors)
Scheme of the Euro-Mediterranean Wildland Fire Risk Index (EM-WFRI) (D-08-03, D-08-06)
Satellite index
Fuel moisture
Ignition Danger Index
Meteo Index
Probability of ignition (human factors)
Human ignition
Fuel properties
Propagation
Danger Index
Wind flows
EM - WFRI
Topography
Population exposition
Vulnerability Index
Environmental value
Economic value
Potential soil erosion
EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

6. Fuel Moisture (Satellite Information)
FMCg = x NDVI – x ST x FDg
FMCc = x NDVI – x ST x FDc
Grasslands Ávila-Segovia
y = x R 2 = 50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Observed
Estimated
(a)
(b)
Live fuel moisture content map (August, 10th; 2004)
Observed and estimated FMC values
for grasslands (a) and C. ladanifer (b).
EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

7. Fuel moisture (Meteorological Index)
Correlation between meteorological variables and environmental and topographic variables:
elevation ( r -0.72/-0.97),
aspect (r -0.34/-0.53),
slope (r -0.44/-0.70),
sea distance (-0.40/-0.93)
Multiple regression:
r 0.97 for minimum and maximum temperature of January and July
Spatial interpolation of meteorological index value:
Interpolation of the meteorological parameters of the index (temperature, wind…)
Interpolation of the meteorological index
EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

8. Spatial interpolation of meteorological risk index
a) high resolution -50 x 50 m-
b) low resolution -1 x 1 km-
* Meteorological risk index from interpolated variables:
c) high resolution -50 x 50 m-
(b)
EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

9. Probability of Ignition (Human Factors)
Landuse types
Urban density
Road network
Structural forest fire ignition risk
EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

10. Probability of Ignition (Human Factors: occurrence)
EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

11. Scheme of the Euro-Mediterranean Wildland Fire Risk Index (EM-WFRI)
Satellite index
Fuel moisture
Ignition Danger Index
Meteo Index
Probability of ignition (human factors)
Human ignition
Fuel properties
Propagation
Danger Index
Wind flows
EM - WFRI
Topography
Population exposition
Vulnerability Index
Environmental value
Economic value
Potential soil erosion
EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

12. Propagation Danger Index
Rate of Spread (RS)
Propagation Danger Index (PDI)
Flame Length (FL)
EU SPREAD Project, 2004
EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

13. Vulnerability Index: Environmental value
Landscape Value:
Singularity
Diversity
Connectivity
......
CORINE LAND COVER
Environmental Value
Ecological
Value:
Natural protected areas
Habitat of importance
.....
NATURA 2000 NETWORK
EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

14. Vulnerability Index: Potential soil erosion
Slope
(%)
Pre-fire vegetation density
Fire severity
Soil erodibility
0-5 1
Medium
Variable
Shallow soil with high stone content
5-10 2
Low
Intense 3
Intermediate depth and stoniness
10-20
Bare
Deep soil with few stones
20-30 4
>30 5
Coefficients ascribed to the four soil erosion factors used to estimate erosion risk
Erosion Index = Slope * Vegetation density * Fire severity * Soil erodibility
Low ≤ 5; Intermediate 6 – 15; High 16-26; Very high ≥ 27
EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

15. Vulnerability Index: Potential soil erosion
Slope
Vegetation
density
Fire
severity
Soil
erodibility
EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

16. Conclusions
* The components and structure of a risk index have been identified.
Several examples have been shown to demonstrate their efficiency.
The remaining challenge is to acquire better data necessary for risk estimation at the European scale.
* A GIS can be easily used for the generation and integration of the variables, and a map web server could be used for the distribution of the data and presentation of the risk.
* Two scales must be considered independently:
The European scale provides deciders with a global vision of the risk.
The local scale provides an operational basis upon which local foresters and firemen can make practical decisions.
EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006