1. Contribution of ALPHA results to global estimates and policy
Mary Mahy, ScD
Division Chief
Strategic Information and Monitoring
UNAIDS, Geneva

2. Three areas of contribution
Improved model parameters
Validated results from global estimates
Unpackaged complexities of the epidemic

3. 1. Improved model parameters
Survival by age at infection East Africa (a) vs South Africa (b)
Todd et al AIDS 2007
Presented by Basia Zaba on behalf of the Alpha network consortium at
UNAIDS Reference Group meeting 2015

4. 2. Validated model results
Observed female adult Life Expectancy
trends compared with national level
estimates (UN Pop Div & IHME)
Mortality rates of people living with HIV,
Reniers et al AIDS 2014

5. 3. Unravelling complexities
Maternal mortality 8x higher among HIV+ women, however mortality rate much lower among HIV+ pregnant women than HIV+ women
Revised global maternal mortality estimates
Fertility patterns of HIV+ women versus HIV- women after ART roll out
Source: Zaba et al Lancet 2013
Source: Marston presentation on behalf of ALPHA network.
UNAIDS Reference Group 2015

6. Going forward
Models: Updates to parameters, Decisions about what level of complexity is required,
Interpretation: changing patterns of treatment uptake and drop out and resulting incidence trends
Complicated results: Fertility patterns and ART, poverty, and medication
Developing systems for unique identifiers, programme data collection, analytical methods, improving quality of services in communities using ALPHA analysis tools