1. Evidence-based policy and youth justice outcomes
A NSW pilot project of the Washington State approach to policy making
From Evidence to Practice: the Australasian Youth Justice Conference
Brisbane September 2016.

2. Overview Outline of Washington State approach Youth justice outcomes
Can the Washington State evidence based policy approach be applied locally?
Outline of Washington State approach
Youth justice outcomes
The NSW pilot project
Potential and challenges for adoption locally

3. Part 1. Outline of Washington State approach
The Washington State Institute of Public Policy (WSIPP)
Policy impact assessment tool
calculates costs and benefits to determine what works in criminal justice
implemented in ~25 jurisdictions (US) and the UK
Readily adaptable
Facilitates transparency and public scrutiny of policy performance
Introduces evidence to policy making displacing power of unfounded rhetoric
Allows resources to be reinvested in ‘what works’
Public value is increased by:
improving outcomes and quality of life
generating a higher return on investment to the community.

4. Part 1. The Washington State Approach
The PIAT produces a league table that ranks alternative policies by cost benefit
‘Consumer reports’:
Focus on Return on Investment
Peer-reviewed
Transparent
Published
Sample league table used to inform policy selection – Washington State Criminal Justice Interventions

5. Part 2 Youth Justice Outcomes
Outcomes in Washington State – reduction in juvenile arrest rates
Source: Washington State Institute for Public Policy and The Pew-MacArthur Results First Initiative

6. Part 3: the NSW pilot project
Methods
Model Inputs
Marginal costs of detection, conviction and custodial care
Victim impacts (direct and indirect), resource use and costs
Recidivism rates, resource use rates, offending base rates
Incapacitation, simultaneity and elasticity metrics
Policing and prison population headcounts
Earned income by single year of age and educational attainment
Evidence library: effect sizes of intervention outcomes

7. Part 3: the NSW pilot project
Achievements and Results
Collected and aggregated NSW criminal justice cost data
Estimated MC for NSW criminal justice
Crime victim costs calculated for NSW
Returns from education to lifecycle earnings calculated for NSW
Proof of concept established
Implementation Pathway ✔ ✔
Obtain the PIAT
Treasury acquired the tool through the Pew-MacArthur Results First Initiative
Validate the PIAT
The pilot project has shown that the tool can be used successfully for the NSW justice cluster
Implement for Justice
It is recommended to implement the model initially within the justice cluster
Possible expansion
Further pilots could explore opportunities to expand use of the model into other policy areas
Requires developing and maintaining technical expertise

8. Part 3: the NSW pilot project
Limitations
Technical and methodological
Data limitations and fidelity
Pilot findings of limited validity- applicable only to Justice
Wide confidence intervals for marginal cost
Precision of victim costs could be improved
Scarcity of outcome evaluations (model inputs)
Limitations of validity
Capability retention and development
Implementation and Governance
Institutional framework
Transparency
Links to decision-making process

9. Part 4: Potential in Australia
Meeting the challenges
Collaborate
Develop capability
Grow transparency
Inform public
Displace rhetoric with evidence
Increase public value - reduce costs
Evidence- informed policy
Policy with impact
Improve standard of living

10. Summary
The Washington State model is a proven approach to applying evidence to policy setting
The outcomes for youth justice have been pronounced
The NSW pilot project has demonstrated it can be applied in the NSW justice cluster
A clear set of opportunities and challenges for:
adaptation to broader Australian context

11. Thankyou
Questions and discussion
Ophelia Cowell Director Economic Evaluation NSW Treasury

12. The model and inputs Inputs Process Outputs Effect Size Library
Macroeconomic
Data
Agency Resource Use
NSW demographics
GDP deflator
Health costs
NSW marginal costs
NSW recidivism rates
Program costs
Quality adjusted
International evidence
Process
Program impacts
Investment
NPV, ROI and cashflow
Risk-return
metric analysis of defined interventions
Investment portfolio analysis
Inventory of policy options
Outputs
Source: Washington State Institute for Public Policy

13. A worked example - Functional Family Therapy
Effect Size
-0.341
Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR)
14%
Base rate of juvenile reoffending
60.9%
Expected number lifetime felony convictions (w/out FFT)
3.39
FFT cost
$3300 pp
Cost to crime victims averted
$48 392
Cost of CJ resources averted
$12 982
NPV = [.14 * 3.39 * ($48,392 + $12,982)] - $3300
= $25,828 pp
Source: Washington State Institute for Public Policy

14. Part 2. the NSW pilot project
Rationale