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Agenda Section I Business Summary Company Overview Business Segments

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Presentation on theme: "Agenda Section I Business Summary Company Overview Business Segments"— Presentation transcript:

1 David Lee | Ningzhou Fang Reviewed October 25, 2016 Updated: November 17, 2016

2 Agenda Section I Business Summary Company Overview Business Segments
Porter’s Five Force SWOT Analysis Section II Key External Drivers Macroeconomic Outlook Industrial Review Section III Technical Analysis Section IV Financial Analysis Section V Valuation Discount Cash Flow Model Comparable Valuation Section VI Forecasting Section VII Recommendation

3 Company Overview WBA is the first global pharmacy-led health and wellbeing enterprise Basic Information Company Size Founded in 2014, Headquarter in Delaware, Successor of Walgreen Co. The largest retail pharmacy, health and daily living destination across the U.S. and Europe Portfolio includes: Walgreens, Duane Reade, Boots and Alliance Healthcare Purpose is to help people across the world lead healthier lives Over 13,200 stores in 11 countries Equity method investments have presence in more than 25 countries and employ more than 400,000 people Over 390 distribution centers delivering to more than 230,000 pharmacies, doctors and health centers each year in more than 20 countries Business Strategies Key Statistics (10/24/16) Fosters in-house new product research and development and manufacturing capabilities Seeks to drive innovative ways to address global health and wellness challenges Well positioned to expand customer offerings in existing markets and become a health and wellbeing partner of choice in emerging markets Shares Outstanding: 1.08 billion Current Price: $83.11 Trailing P/E Ratio: 21.8 Market Cap: $90 billion Trailing Annual Dividend Yield: 1.78% Real Client Managed Portfolio

4 Retail Pharmacy International Pharmaceutical Wholesale
Business Segments Pharmacy-led health and beauty retail business in 50 states Market leader in US; operated 8,173 retail stores in 2016 76% of US population live within 5 miles of Walgreens retailer Focus on customer loyalty; 67% pharmacy, 33% retail sales Retail Pharmacy USA Pharmacy-led health and beauty retail business in 8 countries Operated 4,673 retail stores in 2016 Growing online presence with online retail support platforms Market leader in Europe Retail Pharmacy International Services more than 110,000 pharmacies, doctors, health centers and hospitals; 288 distribution centers in 11 countries Products & Services include IP and Licenses, in-house R&D, sourcing raw materials, competitive availability, and exports Pharmaceutical Wholesale

5 Buyer’s Bargaining Power Supplier’s Bargaining Power
Porter’s Five Force Industry Rivalry Entry Barriers Buyer’s Bargaining Power Threat of Substitute Supplier’s Bargaining Power Entry Barriers (Moderate) -High industry attractiveness and room for small businesses -Low capital requirement -Industry concentration raises barriers Industry Rivalry (High) -Multiple competitors -Undifferentiated products Supplier’s Bargaining Power (Moderate) -Strong long term relationships with suppliers -Access to raw material channels -Industry giant Buyer’s Bargaining Power (Moderate) -Multiple alternatives and existence of public health insurance Threat of Substitutes (High) -Multiple alternatives like drug retail chain, supermarket, independent drug store, online drug ordering and mail-order drugs

6 SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses Threats Opportunities
Regulation – national, state, and local Pricing pressure Competitive landscape Uncertainty regarding further economic conditions Acquisition of drugstore chains bring growth potentials International expansion Online retail platforms High degree of operating leases Equity method investments Seasonal variations in business Market cannibalization Store locations Brand recognition Customer loyalty program Diversified retail operations In-house R&D Expansive relations with domestic and foreign suppliers Strengths Weaknesses Threats Opportunities Real Client Managed Portfolio

7 Macroeconomic Outlook
The relatively sluggish increase is attributed expected economy recovery Number of People Aged 65+ Federal Funding for Medicare Number of Physician Visits Number of People with Health Insurance Real Client Managed Portfolio Source: IBIS World URL:

8 Industry Review Industry revenue will be less volatile, increasing 5.4% annually over the next five years Current Performance Major Players Industry Structure Key Statistics Life Cycle Stage: Mature Revenue Volatility: Medium Capital Intensity: Low Regulation Level: Medium Revenue: 283.6B (2016) Profit: 13.9B (2016) Annual Growth: 2.7%( ) Expected Growth: 5.6% ( ) Business: 21,738 Real Client Managed Portfolio Source: IBIS World URL:

9 Technical Analysis

10 Assumption for Income Statement
In millions of usd, except per share amount

11 Financial Analysis Consistent Operating Margin with Increasing Liquidity Ratios Real Client Managed Portfolio Source: Financial inputs from Capital IQ

12 Capital Structure Improving Interest Coverage and Cash Conversion Cycle Real Client Managed Portfolio Source: Financial inputs from Capital IQ

13 DuPont Analysis – ROE Improving Tax Burden and Operating Margin
Real Client Managed Portfolio Source: Financial inputs from Capital IQ

14 Discount Rate Calculation

15 Discount Cash Flow Valuation
WBA implied share price is $86.24

16 Comparable Companies Comparable companies are in similar business model with WBA Comparable Companies CVS Health Corporation Patterson Companies, Inc. The Jean Coutu Group PharMerica Corporation Ticker CVS PDCO PJC PMC Business Description Retail and health company in US; operated subsidiaries CVS Pharmacy in 2014 Medical supplier primarily in the business of veterinary and dental products, operating in US, Canada and Europe.  Canadian drugstore chain; the third largest pharmacy distributor in North American Second largest in institutional pharmacy service market Market Cap $98,827 $4,559 $2,710 $707 EV $121,262 $5,612 $2,599 $1,111 LTM Revenue $166,729 $5,576 $2,077 $2,029 LTM EBITDA $12,356 $443 $232 $136 LTM EBIT $10,006 $355 $213 $84 Source: Capital IQ

17 Comparable Valuation WBA implied share price is ranged from $81.09 to $82.71 In millions of usd, except per share amount

18 Forecasting – EPS and Price/Share
EPS: , $79.06-$101.29/share P/E Multiples Analysis 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Dividends per Share 0.90 1.09 1.25 1.32 1.44 1.68 1.90 2.15 2.42 2.74 EPS $2.31 $2.69 $2.03 $3.87 $3.85 $4.76 $5.12 $5.48 $5.77 $6.10 Share Price $36.44 $53.80 $59.27 $83.10 $80.62 $79.06 $85.10 $91.03 $95.90 $101.29 P/E 15.79 19.99 29.16 21.46 20.92 16.61 Total Return 3.7% 47.0% 10.2% 39.5% -2.8% -1.6% 7.8% 7.1% 5.5% 5.8% Annualized Return 23.5% 18.9% 23.7% 17.9% 14.4% 13.4% 12.6% 11.8% 11.2% Real Client Managed Portfolio Source: 2017 Forward P/E Input from Morningstar

19 Current Share Price is Fairly Valued
Recommendation Current Share Price Discount Cash Flow Implied Share Price Comparable Valuation Implied Share Price $83.19 $86.24 $81.09-$82.71 Current Share Price is Fairly Valued Asset intensity poses financial risk for business Inorganic growth opportunities through M&A transactions Additional growth opportunities overseas Firm to continue growth through 2017 Hold

20 Q&A Thank You !


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