1. MESAS: Evaluation of minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol
MESAS: Evaluation of minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol. Proposed study portfolio
Updated Aug 2017
This presentation provides an overview of the proposed plan to evaluate MUP. There is a requirement in the minimum unit pricing (MUP) legislation to review its impact. The legislation is currently subject to a legal challenge and the Supreme Court is due to hear the case in July. In order to fulfil the legislative requirement for review it has been necessary to plan the evaluation, and start those studies that require baseline data collection, in advance of the decision from the Supreme Court. Should the Court rule against MUP this work will cease. The plan is still under development and may change. V2

2. Legislation Requirements
Impact on public health, crime, public safety, public nuisance, and protecting children and young people from harm
Impact on producers and license holders
Impacts by gender, age, socio-economic status and drinking status where possible
Views of those representing alcohol producers and license holders, and those with a function related to health, crime prevention, education, social work and children and young people are sought
The MUP legislation requires that a review report is produced as soon as possible after 5 years of implementation that includes the following:
Impact on the 5 licensing objectives. These are protecting and improving public health, preventing crime and disorder, securing public safety, preventing public nuisance, and protecting children and young people from harm
Impact on producers and license holders
Impacts by gender, age, socio-economic status and drinking status where possible
Views of those representing alcohol producers and license holders, and those with a function related to health, crime prevention, education, social work and children and young people.

3. Evaluation Questions
To what extent has implementing MUP in Scotland contributed to reducing alcohol-related harms?
Are some (people and businesses) more affected (positively and negatively) than others?
The overarching evaluation questions are:
To what extent has implementing MUP in Scotland contributed to reducing alcohol-related harms?
Are some (people and businesses) more affected (positively and negatively) than others?
There are more specific evaluation questions for each of the component studies

4. Theory-based evaluation
If there is
A Theory of Change - how MUP may result in a series of outcomes;
MUP implemented in a way likely to change outcomes;
Evidence gathered that shows that the sequence of expected results is being realised; and
Other factors influencing the outcomes have been assessed and accounted for.
Then evidence that MUP is impacting
Evaluating policy (such as MUP) where there is no ability to control exposure, potential impacts are numerous and various external factors may influence both delivery and outcomes is difficult. Having a good understanding of how the intervention is expected to cause change is important if impact is to be assessed. We are therefore using a theory-based approach to the evaluation of MUP whereby if there is:
A Theory of Change - how MUP may result in a series of outcomes;
MUP implemented in a way likely to change outcomes;
Evidence gathered that shows that the sequence of expected results is being realised; and
Other factors influencing the outcomes have been assessed and accounted for.
Then there is evidence that MUP is impacting.
Within a theory-based approach the appropriate study designed are used to collect the evidence on outcomes.

5. Theory of change for MUP
External factors: economic context, potential changes to cider duty
MUP
implemented
Price change.
No alcohol
<50ppu
Reduced
Purchasing
(in off-trade)
Reduced
consumption
Reduced
harm
Compliance
Social norms and
Attitudes to MUP
Product
and marketing
changes
A theory of change has been developed for MUP. In order to have an impact on harms, license holders (retailers) must comply with the legislation and if this happens the price of alcohol currently sold under 50ppu must change and there will be no alcohol sold below 50ppu. It is expected that this will reduce purchasing of alcohol sold through shops and supermarkets, consumption will reduce and there will be a reduction in harms in health, crime, disorder, public safety and children and young people.
These changes may impact on attitudes to MUP and social norms around drinking, and vice versa.
There may be a change to alcohol products and marketing (e.g. reduced strength). The alcohol industry may be affected.
It has been suggested that some drinkers may turn to other sources of alcohol or to illicit drugs, or that there may be reduced disposable income for essentials like housing, fuel and food.
Outcomes may be affected by factors other than MUP, such as potential changes to cider duty and/or the wider economic context which may change the price and affordability of alcohol.
Substitution:
other alcohol
or drugs
Displacement of spending
Economic impact
on alcohol industry

6. The Evaluation
A portfolio of MESAS studies that are feasible, robust, necessary, sufficient and proportionate to fulfil the requirements of legislation. +
Researchers applying for other grant funding to answer other important questions
The evaluation as a whole will consist of:
A portfolio of MESAS studies that are feasible, robust, necessary, sufficient and proportionate to fulfil the requirements of legislation. +
Researchers applying for other grant funding to answer other important questions

7. Theory of Change: showing the potential studies
SHeS,
Alcohol sales,
Alcovision,
Harmful drinkers
Routine data
(health, crime,
children),
Harmful drinkers,
Small retailers
Supermarket prices,
Price distribution
Licensing data,
LSO data
Alcohol sales
Price change.
No alcohol
<50ppu
Reduced
Purchasing
(in off-trade)
Reduced
consumption
Reduced
harm
Compliance
Small retailers,
Supermarket prices
Social norms
Attitudes to MUP
Product
and marketing
changes
Social Attitudes
Survey
Small retailers,
Supermarket prices,
Case studies,
Alcohol sales,
Routine data
We have developed a portfolio of studies to evidence the various outcomes in the theory of change. In additional to the studies funded through MESAS, we are supporting applications for grant funding
Harmful drinkers,
Grant funding
being sought
Harmful drinkers
Substitution:
other alcohol
or drugs
Economic impact
on alcohol industry
Displacement of spending

8. Proposed portfolio to date
Licensing and LSO data
Observational study of small retailers (Commissioned. Led by University of Stirling)
Weekly average price data of alcoholic products sold by ‘grocery multiple’ retailers
Alcohol sales and price distribution
Analysis of self report data on consumption
Harmful drinkers study (Commissioned. Led by University of Sheffield)
Analyses of routine data on health, crime, public safety and public nuisance, and impacts on children & young people
Qualitative study on consumption in those under 18 years
Questions in Scottish Social Attitudes Survey
Economic impact case studies and routine data
Household expenditure (if grant funding approved)
Engage with stakeholders throughout. Portfolio may be refined
There are currently 11 broad areas of study:
Licensing and LSO data
Observational study of small retailers (currently being commissioned)
Weekly average price data of alcoholic products sold by ‘grocery multiple’ retailers (supermarkets)
Alcohol sales and price distribution
Analysis of self report data on consumption
Harmful drinkers study (Commissioned – led by University of Sheffield)
Analyses of routine data on health, crime, public safety and public nuisance, and impacts on children & young people
Qualitative study on consumption in those under 18 years
Questions in Scottish Social Attitudes Survey
Economic impact case studies and routine data
Household expenditure
Engage with stakeholders throughout to ensure views are represented.
These will be refined as the detail of the portfolio is developed.

9. Compliance + availability <50ppu
To what extent has MUP been complied with? How does price and price distribution
change, and is this different to England? How have different drink types been affected?
Study
What
Routine data
Descriptive analysis of routine licensing data.
LSO data
Currently exploring what data will be/can be collected by LSOs.
Additional price band data
Weekly price band data to track the price distribution of off-trade alcohol changes in Scotland and England.
Supermarket prices
Weekly average price data of alcoholic products sold by ‘grocery multiple’ retailers
Small retailers
Commissioned study led by university of Stirling to determine how price and promotional activity changes in small independent retailers in Scotland, using qualitative and quantitative data
To assess compliance and availability of alcohol under 50ppu, the evaluation questions are:
To what extent has MUP been complied with?
How does price and price distribution change, and is this different to England?
How have different drink types been affected?
We are looking to use routine licensing statistics and any data which may be available from Licensing Standards Officers.
We are looking to obtain more frequent price distribution data from the off-trade retailers (especially supermarkets). These data show the amount of alcohol sold in 5p price bands
We will also have data on prices of alcohol products sold through the supermarkets
We have commissioning university of Stirling to lead a study of the impacts in small retailers. This will use both qualitative and quantitative data.

10. Purchasing and Consumption
How does sales of alcohol change post MUP (on and off-trade)? What impact does MUP have on population and self-reported consumption? Are some groups more or less affected than others? What is the impact on the prevalence of hazardous and harmful drinking?
Study
What
Sales data
Analysis of sales and price data from Scotland and England (total/ by market sector/by drink type).
Self report consumption
Descriptive analysis of self-report consumption and drinking patterns from Scottish health Survey. Some data from the harmful drinkers study.
Harmful Drinkers
Commissioned study led by University of Sheffield. Collecting quantitative and qualitative data from the heaviest drinkers on a range of outcomes including purchasing behaviour, consumption, substitution, crime, family member experiences. Includes interviews with service providers. Also includes analysis of Kantar Alcovision data
To assess purchasing and consumption the evaluation questions are:
How does sales of alcohol change post MUP (on and off-trade)?
What impact does MUP have on population and self-reported consumption?
Are some groups more or less affected than others?
What is the impact on the prevalence of hazardous and harmful drinking?
We will continue to use alcohol sales data to assess population consumption, with analysis by market sector (on or off-trade) and by drink type as well as in total.
We will report self-report consumption data, for example, the Scottish Health Survey. Some researchers are applying for grant funding to collect additional self-report data.
We have commissioned the University of Sheffield to lead a study on the impact on harmful drinkers. Using qualitative and quantitative data collection, this study will look at the impact of MUP on consumption as well as on a range of outcomes.

11. Alcohol-related harm
What is impact on health/crime, public safety and nuisance outcomes? Are these impacts differentially patterned?
What is impact on harm experienced by children and young people? Are these impacts differentially patterned?
Study
What
Mortality + morbidity routine data
Analysis of routine hospitalisation and mortality data. Study protocol to be developed. Potentially there will be additional data from the harmful drinkers study
Crime, public safety and nuisance data
Scoping to determine feasibility of commissioning a study on crime and public safety using routine data. Some data from harmful drinkers study.
Children and young people
Scoping to determine the feasibility of a study using existing data. Data from harmful drinkers study on number of children in harmful drinkers lives, and qualitative data from adult family members. Commissioned qualitative study exploring consumption responses to MUP in drinkers under 18 years
To assess impact on alcohol related harms the evaluation questions are:
What is impact on health/crime, public safety and nuisance outcomes? Are these impacts differentially patterned?
What is impact on harm experienced by children and young people? Are these impacts differentially patterned?
We are looking to use routine data and data obtained by other studies in this portfolio to answer these questions. We are working to develop the detail on the data and analysis proposed.

12. Attitudes
What impact does MUP have on attitudes to alcohol, to MUP and perception of harm caused by alcohol?
Study
What
Scottish Social Attitudes Survey
Repeat questions on support/don’t support MUP and reasons for that view in Scottish Social Attitudes Survey post MUP implementation
To assess impact on attitudes we are looking to repeat the questions previously asked in the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey on support (or not) for MUP and reasons for that view.

13. Economic Impact
What affect has MUP had on the alcohol industry? How do products,
price distribution and marketing change? How do output, revenues, profitability and employment change and are there differences across sectors?
Does displacement of spending on food and other products important to health occur and if so are these effects differentially patterned?
Study
What
Small retailers
Commissioned study led by University of Stirling to determine how price and promotional activity changes in small independent retailers in Scotland
Supermarket prices
Weekly average price data of alcoholic products sold by ‘grocery multiple’ retailers
Routine data plus case studies
Commissioned case studies with range of producers and on and off trade retailers. Interviews with industry bodies and license holders. Analysis of routine data e.g. Labour Force Survey.
Household expenditure
Proposed analysis of Kantar Worldpanel data on food expenditure (& look at using Living Costs and Food Survey)
To assess the economic impact the evaluation questions are:
What affect has MUP had on the alcohol industry?
How do products change, price distribution and marketing change?
How do output, profitability and employment change and are there differences across sectors?
Does displacement of spending on food, energy and housing occur and if so is it differentially patterned?
The price, sales and small retailers study will provide important data to help answer these questions.
We are planning to commission a study to supplement this. We think this is likely to be using a case study approach and analysis of routine data although this will be dependant on the successful contractor.
We are supporting a researcher to apply for grant funding to look at the impact of MUP on household expenditure.

14. Substitution, external factors and consultation with stakeholders
Do drinkers substitute other sources of alcohol or drugs post MUP?
Have external factors driven trends in alcohol consumption and harms?
What are the views of key representatives from health, crime, education, social work, children and young people, producers and license holders on the impact of MUP?
Study
What
Substitution
Harmful drinkers
External factors
Incorporate as appropriate in all studies
Consultation with stakeholders
Engagement with key stakeholder representatives from producers and license holders, LSOs, health, crime, education, social work and children and young people throughout the process.
To assess the extent of substitution we will use data from the harmful drinkers study, routine data. Other researchers are applying for grant funding which will also contribute to this.
It will be important to consider how factors other than MUP are impacting on outcomes, and this will be incorporated throughout the portfolio.
We are exploring ways to engage and consult with representatives of stakeholders throughout the portfolio.