1. http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae U.S. Society for Ecological Economics
New Perspectives on Teaching Ecological Economics
Teaching about Population: Social, Economic, and Ecological Analyses      
U.S. Society for Ecological Economics
Macalester College, St. Paul Minnesota
June 27, 2017
Anne-Marie Codur
Copyright © 2017 Jonathan M. Harris

2. Population and the Environment
Chapter 15:
Population and the Environment
contributing author: Anne-Marie Codur

3. Teaching about Population: Social, Economic, and Ecological Analyses
The dynamics of population growth: predicting the future of population
The factors behind the fertility transition
Economic growth and population growth: the one-time “demographic gift” of rapid fertility decline
Ecological perspectives on population growth
Population policies for the 21st century?

4. I - The dynamics of population growth: predicting the future of population

5. The demographic transition
Birth/Death Rates
Per 1,000 Population 40
Birth 30 20
Death
Population growth rate 10 I II
III IV
Stable:
High Birth
High Death
Increasing
Growth
Rate
Decreasing
Growth
Rate
Stable:
Low Birth
Low Death

6. Figure 15.3

7. Figure 15.2

8. Male
Female
Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 15.7
Western Europe
China

9. II. The factors behind the fertility transition

10. Iran: the fastest fertility transition in history
1979: Iranian revolution => clerics eliminate family planning (fertility rate = 6 children per woman)
1983: fertility rate rises to 7 children per woman
1986: prices of oil drop from $27 to less than $10 => Iran’s leadership concerned it cannot keep up with providing basic infrastructures to rapidly growing population => reinstate family planning programs
+ policies of universal education for boys and girls
+ universal health care (reproductive care broadly accessible)
(Gini index >50 in 1980; drops to 38 in 2005)
2006: fertility rate = 1.9 children per women

11. Factors of a rapid fertility transition
Women empowerment: Girls education (universal primary and secondary education)
Broad and free access to health care and especially reproductive health care and family planning.
cultural norms that value education as a path to economic success / correlated with high levels of urbanization where children are not used as manpower in the fields
media message and communication about the new family « norm » of 4 = Mom, Dad + 2 kids.

12. Fertility differentials according to women’s educational level
2.25 2
1.75
1.5
RFI
1.25 1 + + + + +
0.75
0.5
SEA
MENA SA
SSA
LAM
TFR:
3.25
3.35
3.25
5.31
3.36
None
Incomplete primary
Primary
Lower secondary +
Upper secondary
Post-secondary
RFI = Relative Fertility Index (relative to the group of women with lower-secondary education as a reference category) – Source: Lutz et al, IIASA, 2014.

13. IIASA model vs. UN projections
By adding education to the traditional demographic characteristics of age and sex, IIASA substantially alters the way we look at changes in populations and how we project them into the future.
Example of Nigeria: the UN projects an increase from 160 million in 2010 to 914 million in 2100
IIASA projects only 576 million.
Because fertility in Nigeria has been stagnant at 6
children per woman for the decade ,
UN based its purely statistical model on the
assumption of a very slow future decline.
IIASA assumes a faster fertility decline (fertility
has already dropped to 5.65 in 2014)

14. IIASA’s assumptions:
On average the population in 2050 will be much better educated than today’s because virtually everywhere the younger cohorts are better educated than the older ones.
The population that never attended school will be stagnant in absolute terms and diminishing as a proportion while at the same time the population with secondary or postsecondary education will rapidly expand. 
IIASA medium scenario: 9.2 billion in 2050
peak at 9.4 billion in 2070

15. Projections of the International Institute in Applied Systems Analysis
World-2010
6.9 billions
Projections of the International Institute in Applied Systems Analysis
“stalled development” scenario (constant educational levels)
Rapid educational development scenario
World-2050 SSP1
World-2050 SSP3
8.5 billions
10 billions
Figure 15.8

16. Figure 15.5

17. III. Economic development and population growth
Fertility Rate (Total births/woman)
Figure 15.10
GDP/capita (PPP, constant 2011 international dollars)

18. Fertility decline and economic growth: the one-time “demographic dividend”

19. IV. Ecological perspectives on population growth
Countries represented proportionally to the weight of their ecological footprint

20. Ecological Impact = P x Impact per capita
= Affluence (GDP per capita) x Technological factor
Technological factor: ecological impact per unit of GDP
1 U.S. citizen’s impact
= 2.4 Europeans’ impact
= 10 Indians’ impact
> 20 Sub-Saharan Africans’ impact

21. Impact per capita = Affluence x Tech factor

23. Comparing future ecological impacts of population growth
Total population: 7.2 billion
Total population: 11.3 billion
World 2015
World 2100
USA (2050): 400 millions => increase of 80 millions compared with 2015
would have the same climate impact as the increase of 1.6 billion population in Sub-Saharan Africa, if GHG emissions per capita remained the same.

24. Global Freshwater Availability
The availability of freshwater is very unequally distributed geographically. A region or country is said to be experiencing water stress when annual water supplies fall below 1,700 cubic meters per person per year - and water scarcity when supplies fall below 1,000 cubic meters per person – we also talk about absolute water scarcity when supplies drop below 500 cubic meters per person per year.

25. A1: A future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks mid-century and declines thereafter, and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are economic and cultural convergence and capacity-building, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system: fossil-intensive (A1FI), nonfossil energy sources (A1T), and a balance across all sources (A1B).

27. IV – Population Policies for the 21st century?
“one-child” policies in the Chinese dictatorial fashion are an abuse of human rights. They led to tragic perverse effects (the millions of “missing women”).
=> Public policies can incentivize women and couple to lower their fertility:
provide universal free education
Provide universal health care + reproductive health + family planning
provide a clear message through Media, that foster the model of the smaller size family (2 children)

28. Investing in human capital to curb population growth

29. IIASA’s medium projection
In the medium (most likely) scenario from today’s perspective that combines medium fertility and mortality assumptions with a continuation of the recent Global Education Trends —the aggregate population for the world will reach:
8.3 billion in 2030,
9.2 billion in 2050,
peak at 9.4 billion around 2070
and start a slow decline to 9.0 billion by the end of the century.

30. Thank you!