1. Approved for public release; NG17-0794, 5/1/17
A Simulation-Based Approach to Assess the Implications of Enemy Action on Operational Performance
18–21July, 2017
Tom Collipi
Technical Fellow
Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems
Distribution Statement A. This presentation/paper is unclassified, approved for public release, distribution unlimited, and is exempt from U.S.
export licensing and other export approvals under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (22 CFR 120 et seq.)
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

2. Agenda Tool Overview Scenario Baseline Results Conclusions
Note: Notional Aircraft Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability
and Cost Data Used To Illustrate the Methodology
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

3. Model For Asset Availability Forecasting (MAAF)
An Object-oriented, Simulation Modeling Application Intended To Help Designers, Analysts And Planners Conduct Rapid Analyses Of A Variety Of Logistics Problems, Including:
Predicting Weapon System Availability Under Various Operational Scenarios
Allocating Logistics Resources Based On Mission Requirements
Impact Of Maintenance And Operational Policies On Aircraft Availability And Resources
Assessment Of R&M Improvements On Weapon System Availability And Logistics Resource Requirements
Sizing Units, Readiness Spares Packages (RSPs), Etc.
Analyzing The Impact Of Force Structure Changes
Impact of Primary Aircraft Inventory vs. Backup Aircraft Inventory
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

4. MAAF Object Oriented Framework
MESL*
Missions
Required Repair Resources
LOCATION
A/C 1
GS 1
EQUIPMENT
A location may possess
PLATFORMS
PEOPLE
FACILITIES
Spares SE
Operations
Maintenance
that include
Hangars
Ramps
Crew Chiefs
Avionics
Aircrews
MAAF Supports the Rapid Configuration of Scenarios to
Simultaneously Assess Mission and Support Requirements
* Minimum Essential Subsystem List
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

5. MAAF Modeling and Simulation Construct
Direct Support
NRE Costs
Quantity & Type of
Missions
Quantity & Type of Bases.
Quantity & Type of Platforms
Quantity & Type of Support Resources
NRE and Sustainment Costs
Cost
Data
Direct Support
Recurring Costs
Fleet Ops
(SGR, Sch Eff.)
CAPE (CAIG) O&S Costs
Aircraft Hvy Maint.
Operational Requirements
Availability (Mat. Avail, MC Rate)
Sch. Maint.
Scheduled
Maint (O/H)
Supply Support
Utilization
O&S Data Output (Excel)
LSA
(Eagle)
Task Analysis (Excel)
Model for Asset
Availability Forecasting
Manpower
Utilization
SE & Facilities
Utilization
Reliability Predictions
(Relex, Excel)
R&M Input (Excel)
Support System Definition
R&M (from Simulation)
R&M Output (Excel)
Spares Analysis (VMETRIC)
Spares / Consum. Input (Excel)
Repair / Supply Depots
Levels of Maint.
Facility Capability
Cost Data
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

6. Typical Platform MESL – Repair Actions Data
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

7. Modeling of the Supply System
Lateral Supplier
Key
Depot Repair
Unserviceable LRU
Unserviceable SRU
Request
LRU
Serviceable LRU
Serviceable SRU
Open / Closed Gate
Platform
Base
Supply
Depot Re-procure
I Level
Nesting
Allowed
Re-procurement
Request
MAAF Models Both the Wholesale And Retail Levels of Supply Support
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

8. Approved for public release; NG17-0794, 5/1/17
Aircraft Daily Status
Daily MC Rate
Aircraft Status
(In Heavy
Maintenance)
MAAF Calculates Availability By Tail Number On A Minute by Minute / Day by Day Basis
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

9. Output Example: Summary Page
Operational & Availability Performance
Maintenance And Supply Job Summary
Cost of Sustaining Performance
Operations & Support Costs
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

10. Scenario 28

11. Scenario: Peace Time – Surge Modeling
Mongoose R&M attributes:
Mean Flight Hours Between Failure (MFHBF): ~1.5 FH
Mean Flight Hours Abort (MFHBA): ~60 FH
Mean Time To Repair (MTTR): ~1.3 Hrs
One operating location 36 aircraft
Peace Time Operations
250 Flight Hours Per Aircraft per Year
10 Sorties per day with an average sortie duration of 2.5 hours
Surge Operations
Day 1 to 7: 72 Sorties per day (SGR = 2.0)
Day 8 to 15: 54 Sorties per day (SGR = 1.5)
Day 16 to 30: 36 Sorties per day (SGR = 1.0)
Day 31 to 60: 18 Sorties per day (SGR = 0.5)
417 Line Items
870 Total Items
Notes:
SGR = Sortie Generation Rate
Sortie Duration = 1.0 FH
Day 1 to 60 SGR = 0.93
Note: Notional Aircraft Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability
and Effects of Enemy Action Used To Illustrate Our Methodology
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

12. Modeling Approach Analysis Shows Impact of Increasing of Enemy Action
Aircrew
Simplifying Assumptions
No Aircrew limitations
No Readiness Spare Package/Risk Kit
No Cannibalization
Peace Time
180 Days
Surge
60 Days
Surge w/no effects
Runway Interdiction
Supply Interdiction
Flight Line Attack
Air Combat Losses
Air Combat Damage +
Analysis Stages 
180 Day Peace Time Period Randomizes Support Posture At The Beginning Of The Surge Period –
- Aircraft in PDM
- Aircraft In Maintenance
- Spares Inventory / Shortfall
Analysis Shows Impact of Increasing of Enemy Action
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

13. Approved for public release; NG17-0794, 5/1/17
Enemy Action Effects
Surge with no enemy effects  Baseline
Runway Interdiction
Runway shut down: surge days 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30
Supply Interdiction
Base Supply shut down: surge days 7-8, 12-13, 17-18, 23-24, 28-29
Flight Line Attack
Aircraft losses: surge day A/C, day A/C, day A/C, day A/C
Air Combat Damage
20% probability per sortie
Air Combat Losses
0.5% probability per sortie
ABDR* Occur %
2.5 hrs %
5.0 hrs %
7.5 hrs %
10.0 hrs %
12.5 hrs %
15.0 hrs %
17.5 hrs %
20.0 hrs %
* ABDR = Aircraft Battle Damage Repair
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

14. Baseline – Surge With No Enemy Action32

15. Baseline Results
Schedule Effectiveness = 92.2%; Departure Reliability = 93.65%
MC Rate = 39.47%; Achieved SGR = 0.90
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

16. Baseline Launch and MC Rate Performance
Scheduled Sorties
Launched Sorties
Planned
SGR = 2.0
Sch. Eff. =
96.1%
Planned
SGR = 1.5
Sch. Eff. =
91.1%
MC Rate
Planned
SGR = 1.0
Sch. Eff. =
82.9%
Planned Sch. Eff.
SGR = %
Cancelled Sorties
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

17. Baseline Aircraft Daily Status
Achieved Flight Schedule Outstrips Available Support Resources (Spares)
180 Days
60 Days
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

18. Approved for public release; NG17-0794, 5/1/17
Impact of Enemy Action
Runway Interdiction 
Supply Interdiction
Flight Line Attack
Air Combat Damage
Air Combat Losses
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

19. Runway Interdiction
Effect – Runway shut down: day 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30
Forced Runway Shutdown During Peak SGR Periods Allows Support System To “Recover” As MC Rate Increases From 39.47% to 58.86%
Schedule Effectiveness = 84.1%; Departure Reliability = 89.97%
MC Rate = 58.86%; Achieved SGR = 0.812
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

20. Runway And Supply Interdiction
Added Effect – Base Supply shut down days 7-8, 12-13, 17-18, 23-24, 28-29
Periodic Base Supply Shutdowns Have Minimum Effect
Reduced Missions Launched & Flight Hours Results in Slight Increase To MC Rate
Schedule Effectiveness = 83.9%; Departure Reliability = 89.86%
MC Rate = 59.99%; Achieved SGR = 0.81
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

21. Runway, Supply Interdiction & Flight Line Attack
Added Effect – Aircraft losses: day A/C, day A/C, day A/C, day A/C
5 Aircraft Lost During the 60 Days Results in Slight Decrease To Key Performance Metrics
Achieved SGR Increases As Less Aircraft Are Attempted To Fly Planned Schedule
Schedule Effectiveness = 83.3%; Departure Reliability = 89.51%
MC Rate = 58.91%; Achieved SGR = 0.812
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

22. Runway, Supply Interdiction, Flight Line Attack & ABDR
ABDR= Aircraft Battle Damage Repair
Added Effect – 20% Chance Per Sortie, Causes Abort w/ Mean Repair Time of 9.4 Hours
Large Increase In Aborted Sorties: From ~29 to 355
5.8% Reduction in Flight Hours
Schedule Effectiveness = 82.8%; Departure Reliability = 85.36%
MC Rate = 58.93%; Achieved SGR = 0.811
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

23. Runway, Supply Interdiction, Flight Line Attack, ABDR & Air Combat Loss
ABDR= Aircraft Battle Damage Repair
Added Effect – 0.5% Chance Per Sortie, Causes Aircraft To Be Attrited
8 Additional Aircraft Lost During the 60 Days
Results in Decrease To Key Performance Metrics
Achieved SGR Increases As Less Aircraft Are Attempting To Fly Planned Schedule
Schedule Effectiveness = 80.7%; Departure Reliability = 84.17%
MC Rate = 55.66%; Achieved SGR = 1.056
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

24. Mission Capable Rate Summary
MC Rate Does Not
Appear To Be A Driver
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

25. Aircraft In Repair and NMC
Surge SGR Can Quickly Burn Through Available Spares
Breaks In Supply Seem to Have Limited Effect
No Fly Days Allow Maintenance To “Catch up”
ABDR Can Account For A Significant Portion of Active Repair
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

26. Flight Operations Summary
Close Correlation Between Schedule Effectiveness & Hours Flown
Achieved SGR / Utilization Rate Increases As Aircraft are Lost
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

27. Conclusions

28. Conclusions
Sustainment typically models Peace Time Ops
Wartime/Surge efforts tend to focus on deployment footprint
Tools, like MAAF, can simulate the effects of enemy action on operations such as
Airbase & Supply Interdiction
Aircraft Lost to Ground Attack
Aircraft Battle Damage Repair
Air Combat Losses
This can be expanded to show the impact of the loss of aircrew and maintainer Personnel
Understanding which measures of merit are important is critical for Wartime/Surge Analysis and Optimization
Comprehensive Ops and Support Modeling, (Including Effects Of
Enemy Actions) Adds Significant Understanding Of The
Weapon System’s Capability During Times of Crisis
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

29. Questions? 47

31. Gawker Parametric Cost Data
Return
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17

32. Effect of Aircrew Quantity on Surge Performance
Return
MAAF Aircrew Policies
In 1997 the USN performed a surge exercise from a CVN where in 4 days, they generated 771 strike sorties and put 1,336 bombs on target.
According to Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) Report CRM based on this exercise the limits to “Firepower capacity” were:
Availability of tanking assets
Availability of aircrew
Loading of Ordinance
Conduct of non-flying tasks by aircrew
Time preparing for and debriefing a mission
Mongoose Aircrew: 1 Pilot
Pilot Ratio varied from 0.5 and 2.0
Surge Sortie Performance
Pilot Ratio
(27 to 72 Pilots)
0.5 Pilot Ratio
(18 Pilots)
If Pilot Ratio Greater Than 0.75,
Then Aircrew Quantity Is Not A Ops Driver
Approved for public release; NG , 5/1/17