1. NBA All-Star Game Prediction
Pouya Fatemi
Alex Wu
Zinnia Horne

2. Why do we care? $3.57 Billion in Revenue in the ‘07-’08 season1
Games broadcasted in over 215 countries and territories 2
Fans in New York paid $74 million for tickets in the ’04-’05 season 2
1http:// 2

3. Probem
How can we most accurately predict the winner of the NBA All-Star Game?
What is the probability distribution of the points scored by an NBA All-Star team?

4. Variables Pw = total points scored by Western Conference = ∑ POSi
N = number of possessions per team per game
POSi , discrete random variable with possible values [0,1,2,3,4] – This represents the possible number of points scored in each possession

5. Model Formulation
Most likely outcome (mode) after a possession is to score 0 points.
The next likely outcome is scoring two points.
The average number of points scored is , with a standard deviation of

6. Normal Approximated Distribution for Pw
Mean = N * [E(POSi)] = 90 * =
Standard Deviation = (√N) * STD of POSi = (√90) * =
Assumption: N (# of possessions team obtains in a game = 90)

7. Sensitivity Analyses
Relationship between # of possessions (x-axis) and expected # of points scored (y-axis).
Assumed value in our model was N = 90
Relationship between percentage of 2-pointers (x-axis) and expected # of points (y-axis).

8. Possible Extensions Effect of momentum
Treat seconds spent each possession as a random variable bounded by 0 < seconds spent <24