1. Why Rethink Development
Praveen Singh
Sambhaavnaa, Version July 2017

2. Let us start with a few questions…
Q1: Should there be development or not? Q2: Why do answers to this question often differ?
To Q2: Because we associate different meanings with this word; the implications are different for different people; it’s a euphemism for a disastrous process?

3. Q3: What comes to mind when we use the word ‘Development’?
On the one hand,
A positive connotation: a sense of improvement, a better life for all
Brick & cement houses, tar roads, electricity, cars, trains and planes, TV and internet, white-collar jobs: ‘Modern’ life and lifestyles
On the other,
Good life for a few, at the cost of many others: Rising Inequalities
Climate change, natural resource degradation: Ecocide!
Resource grab and dispossession - people revolt, naxalism & wars!

4. Q4: What makes us consider a society/country as ‘developed’ today?
Higher GDP / Higher per capita income
Transition from an rural-agrarian society to modern-industrial-urban society
Fossil fuels as the energy backbone
Use of modern science and technology
Higher consumption, and of goods produced largely in big industrial setups

5. Q5: And how will this ‘development’ come about?
Via Economic growth
More investment, leading to more production of goods and services, leading to a higher GDP

6. Q6: And if we were to step back and ask a more basic question, as to,
Why do we need development?
The answer would be: to remove poverty
This answer makes ‘development’ impossible to speak against – but we will examine the truth behind this defense in more detail later…

7. So, to summarise, ‘Development’ today is predominantly understood as…
More income/consumption implies a better-happier society/person
Western model of a consumer economy is the best: every society ought to get there
Takes GDP to be a marker of well-being
GDP: leaves out many goods, counts many bads
An average number – mutes disparities
Are the goods that get produced what we need?
No upper limits to this ‘Development’
Unfortunately we live on a finite planet: Ecocide!

8. Q4: Do we then, need to rethink development?
If yes, Why?
In one line we could say:
…because there is a huge discrepancy between what it promises and what it delivers

9. Some numbers: See if you can reconcile them!

10. India: Food and Nutrition
Average normative food (energy) requirement per capita (per WHO ): kcal/day
Availability via domestic production - ever since the 1990s: ~2400 kcal/day
And yet
40% children malnourished: Double of sub-Saharan Africa
Global Hunger Index: India ranks 16th out of 120 countries
78 of 81 developing countries studied improved their hunger situation between ; India in remaining 3!! Source GHI Report 2011

11. What do you think are the causes of hunger in a country like India?

12. Would hunger, discrimination be a major issue in the USA – a rich, developed country?
Total Population:
People below poverty line: (People who struggled to put food on their table)
% of Hispanic households BPL
% of African-American households BPL
% of children who live in risk of hunger
318 mn
48 mn (15%)
22.4%
26.1%
20%
2014 Statistics,
Source: Bread for the World, a food policy and hunger strategy institute

13. In the American context…
The hunger and malnutrition goes alongside
An obesity epidemic
Huge surplus in terms of food production
Huge wastage of food (some estimates say up to 40%)
Even those who eat three meals a day are missing on important minerals and vitamins (surplus of cheap calories)

14. The situation of the entire world is not very different…
850 mn people undernourished (1 out of every 8, or about, 12.5%)
World food availability today: 3000 k cal / day / person:
Do we need any new scientific breakthroughs to feed all the people on earth!

15. Questions worth asking: 1
Questions worth asking: 1. Why do we have abundant food and hungry people at the same time? 2. Is ‘GROWH’ a requirement? 3. Can ‘GROWTH’ be the answer?

16. Food is a basic necessity.
But similar trends would be found for water, housing, sanitation, electricity and many other fundamental needs… both in India, and across the world
For e.g., almost 1/3rd of the world’s population has no access to clean, affordable water

17. Another example: Electricity in India
1992
2002
2012
2015
Generation Capacity (GW) 69
105
200
272
Per Capita consumption (kwH)
348
560
957
1010
% of Households Electrified (All India)
55.8
67.2
% of Households Electrified (Rural)
43.6
55.3
% of Villages Electrified 81 85 92 96
Source: CEA, Min of Power data
Growth is carried out by ‘hiding behind the poor’, but there continues to be ‘darkness under light’ !!

18. Question worth asking:
Is the problem a problem of production, or is it a problem of distribution?
In any economic system, What determines ‘Who gets what?’

19. India: Income distribution
Indian GDP in 2014: Rs 115 lakh crores (approx.)
GDP per capita (population 1250 mn)= Rs / yr
Average Income for a family of 5 = Rs 38,500 / month
And yet
WHY ?
Poverty line (for a family of 5): Rural Rs 4080 / month, Urban Rs 5000 / month
People below poverty line: 22% in 2012, i.e. 1 in 4 families
(With an abysmally low definition of poverty line, and the serious under-reporting of poverty in government data)

20. Income Distribution in India
Popn. quintile
Monthly Household (hh) Income
Per day hh spend
Lowest 20%
Rs 100 – Rs 2,750
Rs 20-90
20-40%
Rs 2,751 – Rs 4,636 Rs
40-60%
Rs 4,637 – Rs 7,400 Rs
60-80%
Rs 7,401 – Rs 12,500 Rs
Top 20%
> Rs 12,500
> Rs 415
Top 0.001%
(= 2.5 lakh families)
Rs 6,60,000 (Average)
Rs 22,000
Source: The Hindu thne.ws/1ijR7sm accessed 21/5/14
IHDS survey , NCAER: using data
0.0001% Row: My estimate based on World Top Incomes Database, IE 13/5/14

21. (1.3%)
(13%)
(30%)
(56%)

22. …a hypothetical income redistribution experiment:
Today: 80% families live with less than Rs 12,500 / month
Redistribute current incomes assuming an inequality of 1:5 between the poorest 5th, and richest 5th families
Lowest 20%
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Income today*
2750
4636
7400
12500
>>12500
Redistributed Shares X 2X 3X 4X 5X
Potential Income
13000
26000
39000
52000
65000

23. Question worth asking:
Again, it is not that income is not being generated.
The question is how are they getting distributed…
The same question crops up again : In any economic system, what determines ‘Who gets what?’

24. As with income, so with wealth…

25. India: Wealth ownership by Population deciles
Source: Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook, 2014

26. India: Wealth Ownership Distribution
In the top 10% that owns 74% of all wealth, the top 5% own 65.5% and the top 1% owns 49%
5 billionaires in late 90’s, 53 in 2013
4th largest number (of billionaires) in any country after US, Russia, Germany; ahead of China, UK, Japan…
Wealth of Top 35 billionaires is more than the combined wealth of bottom 800 mn people of the country
Source: ET Oct 23, 2011 using IAMR Report

27. India: Trajectory of Wealth share
Rising Inequality...
Source: Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook, 2014

28. India Wealth Inequality: Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook 2016

29. Show clip of ‘India’s incredible Inequalities’

30. What about the world’s income and wealth distribution?

31. The telling world income ‘Wine Glass’
Source: Data from Dikhanov, Y. (2005).
Trends in global income distribution, 1970–2000, Data for Year 2000

33. As with income, so with wealth…
Top 8% people own nearly 84% of the world’s wealth;
Bottom 70% own less than 4% !!

34. US, the epitome and the aspiration of the rest of the world
Top 10% people own nearly 71% of the total wealth;
Bottom 60% own less than 5% !
Bottom 18% have zero or negative net worth!!

35. ‘Middle class’ in India: Who? How many?
One definition says family consumption expenditure of more than $10 per day: By this estimate, top 5% of the population
Another estimate says $4-$10 per day: then about 12% of the population (150 mn people)
Is the term ‘middle class’ just a misnomer
for a small privileged elite of the country??

36. Middle class and above in the world: 29%
< $2
$2 - $10
$10 - $20
Source: Scroll article, July 10,2015; Incomes in $/household/day

37. One of the things we often hear when we talk of these problems is: GDP growth is the cure to these ills.
‘Enlarge the pie’ so that we can have more for the poor
‘Wealth shall trickle down’

38. Distribution of additional income from global GDP growth, 1990-2010
A New Economics Foundation, UK study showed:
For every $100 increase in world GDP,
only $4.10 went to those below the $2 / day poverty line;
the remaining $95.90 went to those above it
Source: UNCTAD Policy Brief Post 2015 – No.2, Nov 2013

39. Share of world labour income in world gross output: 1980-2010 (in %)
Source: UNCTAD Policy Brief Post 2015 – No.2, Nov 2013

40. India – Jobless growth
‘Record breaking’ growth since 1991, esp since 2003
Formal Sector jobs
1991: 26.7 mn 2012: mn
Govt jobs have decreased by about 1 mn in this period, hence private sector has generated about 4 mn jobs
Workforce increase during the same period: from 250mn to 450mn approx.
On the one hand, there is a dearth of jobs - on the other, many of those who have work are working up to 12 hrs a day, 6 days a week!

41. India: Low Job Growth despite high GDP growth (1999-00 to 2011-12)

42. Nature of ‘new’ jobs: Employment or exploitation?
GDP growth: ~ 7-8%; Job growth: at a mere 2%
Most new jobs are in the so called ‘Services’ sector
very low paying
often seasonal
mostly contractual
with minimal facilities or benefits
And, tough jobs!
80% of the jobs generated were in construction, petty shop-keepers, hawkers, roadside food sellers, and personal services like cooks, maids, guards, washermen
While these people do not get counted in ‘unemployed’, but their employment is barely subsistence level

43. Question worth asking:
In any economic system,
‘Who does what?’

44. Now, Let us have a look at how the world spends its money…

45. Global Spending Priorities, 1998 (in US$)
Cosmetics in US 8 bn
Ice cream in Europe 11 bn
Perfumes in Europe&US 12 bn
Pet foods in Europe&US 17 bn
Business Entt. (Japan) 35bn
Cigarettes in Europe 50 bn
Alcoholic drinks Europe 105 bn
Narcotics drugs (World) 400 bn
Military spending (World) 780 bn
Compared to what was estimated as additional costs to achieve universal access to basic social services in all developing countries:
(in US$)
Basic education for all 6 bn
Water and sanitation for all 9 bn
Reproductive health for all women bn
Basic health and nutrition bn
How can priorities
become so skewed ??
Or rather, why do incomes get so
unequally distributed?
Source: UNHDR 1998, Ch1, pg 37
Website

46. Question worth asking:
In any economic system, what determines ‘What is produced?’

47. Another such paradox: Military spending in the world today

49. Military spend: better uses?
World Population : 7.2 bn
World Military Expenditure (per day): $4.79 bn
World Population below $2 / day poverty line: 3.2 bn
Numerically speaking, switching military expenditure to poverty allowance could wipe out world poverty overnight…along with reducing ecological devastation significantly!
Ever thought why we need to spend so
much on military?

50. US military spending: An enigma, or is it?
Why is 5% of the world population having to spend 42% of the world military spend?
Is it because they need to ensure their usage of 25% of the world’s resources?

51. To recap, mainstream development theory says that GDP growth is the answer to many of these ills…
...but we need to remember that everything one does to make the economy grow has an impact of the environment

52. The state of the planet…some facts
Between 1970 and 2010, the number of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians
and fish with which we share our planet has fallen by half.
Living Planet Report 2014
Humanity today uses the equivalent of 1.6 planets!
Most of the top 25 countries by per capita footprint are high income nations
The number of nations whose footprint exceeds their biocapacity has been steadily increasing with each passing year. As resources become constrained, competition is growing – which could have increasingly devastating economic, social and political implications.
Living Planet Report 2014
92% of humans live in places where air pollution exceeds WHO standards
3 million deaths (1/9) every year are linked to outdoor air pollution
WHO Report, Sept 2016
Earth is facing a 40% shortfall in water supply by 2030
UNESCO, FAO
An estimated 7.3 mn ha of forest are lost each year (about 0.2% of world forests)
FAO
We dump 19.4 bn lbs of plastic into the ocean / yr
Science,  13 Feb 2015
September Arctic sea ice extent is declining at a rate of 13.3% per decade
NASA, NSIDC
Climate change-related extreme events, plus population growth, could increase hunger by up to 20% by 2050
WFP

53. ‘Development’: Unequal demands…
(Actual GHA/ Available GHA) per capita
H I: 3.1 X
M I: 1.1 X
L I : 0.7X
Living Planet Report 2014

54. …and unequal consequences !!
H I: 1.1 X
M I: 0.8 X
L I : 0.6 X
Bio-Diverstity Loss
Low income countries have the smallest footprint but suffer the greatest eco-system losses
*However, this masks large scale bio-diversity loss before 1970 in North America, Europe and Australia

55. …more unequal consequences !!
Global concentrations of air pollutants, WHO’s most detailed study ever, released Sept 2016

56. 3 of 7 Planetary boundaries transgressed
The planetary boundaries framework identifies the
environmental processes that regulate the stability of the planet. For
each it attempts to define, based on the best available science, safe boundaries. Beyond these boundaries, we enter a danger zone where abrupt negative changes are likely to occur.
The planetary boundaries framework identifies the
environmental processes that regulate the stability of the planet. For
each it attempts to define, based on the best available science, safe
boundaries. Beyond these boundaries, we enter a danger zone where
abrupt negative changes are likely to occur.
While exact tipping-points are impossible to determine with
any degree of certainty, three planetary boundaries appear to have
already been transgressed: biodiversity loss, and changes to the
climate and nitrogen cycle, with already visible impacts on the wellbeing
of human health and our demands on food, water and energy.
The planetary boundaries concept suggests that the existence
of the world that we have known and profited from through the
Holocene now depends on our actions as planetary stewards.

57. More locally, we have More epidemics and lifestyle disorders
Dengue, chikungunya etc: new strains
Diabetes, cancer, heart ailments rampant
Climate change impacts: droughts, floods, cyclones
Vanishing spaces for other living species, future generations
Dispossession for resources: near civil war situation in Chattisgarh
A mercedes owner and a rickshaw puller often live across the same road: Rising sense of injustice, crime, depression, …

58. This phenomena is called ‘Externalisation of Costs’
Essentially, the cost of this ‘development’ is being borne by nature, by some of the humans, however, the benefits only accrue to a small few.
This phenomena is called
‘Externalisation of Costs’

59. Question worth asking: Why does our Economic /Political System allow this ‘Externalization of Costs’ on to some humans, and, to rest of nature?

60. Is not a Democracy = Rule of the demos Demos = the people ??
Equally importantly, Why aren’t our leaders heeding to these warnings of ecological catastrophe??
Is not a Democracy = Rule of the demos
Demos = the people ??

61. Do we elect our leaders…
…or do those who fund the political parties elect the leaders?
One person one vote, or one dollar one vote?
Is it easy to float a political party today?

62. …and what about the state of the judiciary today?
What is the state of ‘the balancing pillars of democracy’, namely the ‘free’ press, and the ‘independent’ judiciary ?
Is the press really a ‘free’ press, or is it just another business driven by the pursuit of profit?...
…and what about the state of the judiciary today?

63. Are we witnessing a ‘Murder of Democracy’?
Are we living in a Democracy, or is it a Corporatocracy?

64. If not, then how do you account for:
Governments needing to deploy police and the army against their own people
Development: benefits to some, and costs to others
Dependence on private savings for Investment – Capitalists hold economies, governments to ransom
Why does a fall in sensex elicit an express response form the highest powers, while much larger calamities go unheard of?
Corporate – Politics nexus
Election funding: one man one vote or one dollar one vote?
Corporate Lobbying: Institution and Policy capture
Suppression of the right to associate, right to dissent, freedom of speech
Dispossession without consent of people, and without adequate compensation / rehabilitation
‘Free’ press ? Or another business with profit pressures – with the need for power and megalomania thrown in

65. What could be a right measure for ‘development?
The key question then perhaps is:
Is GDP, or higher incomes what we aspire for, or are they a means to some other end?
Are we even measuring the right thing, or have we confused the means for the end?
What could be a right measure for ‘development?

66. “A cartoon is worth five thousand words.” – Yours Truly 
“I’ve got the bowl, the bone, the big yard. I know I should be happy.”

67. Isn’t human well-being what we should be looking for?
What could be better, more holistic measures of human well-being?

68. So why did we begin this discussion?
We are trying to understand ‘Development’, and why it seems to come with…
Poverty, amidst plenty
Rising Inequality
Environmental Degradation
Unemployment, and overwork
Murder of Democracy
Financial Instability
Growing GDPs, decreasing Wellbeing
No limits to ‘How much is enough?’
War, naxalism, and terrorism

69. A slightly deeper look reveals that:
These problems are not isolated to India, or the ‘developing’ countries:
They occur in pretty much every country – with slightly different flavors and intensity
Roots of these socio-economic problems of today lie in current notion of ‘development’
But, why should our conception of ‘development’, or human well-being cause severe problems for us?
Where is this notion of development coming from?

70. Our hypothesis: A triad of root causes
Capitalist Economic System
The Dominant Worldview
Model of Development
These are overlapping, interconnected and inter-affecting, in fact mutually compounding
And yet, each oval has its own specifics that need to be understood and addressed

71. So how will we decrypt these systemic problems, and explore the way out?
Understand Capitalism, where it came from, and how it works
Understand Development, where it came from, how it unfolds
Understand key elements and fault-lines of the current Worldview
Identify key elements of a holistic and humane worldview, outline a conception of Development that truly betters the lives of all, and envision an economy that serves us rather than the other way round 1 2 3 4

72. That’s all for now 