1. Towards Thailand’s National Foresight Program on Biotechnology (a small step for Thailand…)
Dr. Nares Damrongchai
Policy Researcher
National Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology

2. Why there is the need for biotechnology foresight?
Has been the country’s strategic technology for a long time. It is thought to be suitable for Thailand.
Rapidly growing technology, especially with the enter into global post-genomic era.
Lots of opportunities and risks, many uncertainties.
Has potentially high socioeconomic impact.
Thailand needs a national policy to manage its limited resources to meet its goal.

3. (lots of uncertainties)
What is the goal?
Biggest Goal
(lots of uncertainties)
To reach ‘bioeconomy’ stage within the year 2020
More than 50% of the national income are from biotechnology-related products or services.
Clear national policy on biotechnology within the year 2005
Lay strategy on post-genomics and gene technology research in 2003.
Big Goal
(take time to achieve)
Smaller Goal
(faster to achieve?)

4. How to reach the goal?
If only we can see the future opportunities, risks, and implications of the application of gene technology (from post-genomics research).
Foresight emerges as a tool: draw on experiences of other existing foresight projects, especially national foresights e.g. Japan and Korea
Build capacity in technology foresight.

5. How to build capacity in foresight.
Advocacy of concept and methodology to win support from decision-making level, management level, and all other stakeholders.
Set up a pilot national foresight program under BIOTEC’s Biotechnology Policy Study Program and APEC Technology Foresight Center.
Seek international cooperation. (Japan’s Technology Foresight Center)

6. Clarification and Refinement of the Issue
Biotechnology in Thailand
Genomics &
Post-genomics
Gene&DNA
Cell
Protein
Organism
Ecosystem
from research to market
Industrial Market
Agriculture
Medicine
Industry
Environment
Consumer’s Market
competitiveness

7. The Core Issue What can be the implications, including:
possible products
possible services
other possible opportunities
possible risks
of post-genomics research for Thailand in the year 2010?

8. Executive Board (BIOTEC and TRF) Technical Advisory Committee
Why post-genomics?
Supportive structure of the Thailand Post-Genomics Program (tentative)
International
Advisory Board
Advisory Board/
Steering Committee
Executive Board (BIOTEC and TRF)
Program Manager
Technical Advisory Committee
Medical
Rice
Shrimp

9. Development of strategy and plan for implementation
Series of Activities 2 3 1 4
Development of plan
Design of detailed
management plan
Selection of tools
simulation 5
National Post-genomics Foresight 2010 (implemented ) 6
Development of strategy
and plan for implementation
Industrial analysis
Economic assessment
Market intelligence
National Post-genomics Research Strategy (completed 2003) 7
Biodiversity
Cellular/tissue engineering
Brain/neuro science
National Research Policy on Biotech (partially by 2004) 8
Technology transfer
Business development
Common intrastructure
HRD
Legal measures
Trade policy
National Policy on Biotech (partially by 2005) 9

10. Who are the users? Primary users Secondary users Tertiary users
People who really must know what it mean
Primary users
researchers
research manager
technology manager
Secondary users
policy makers
administrators
regulators
producers, manufacturers
People who should know what it mean
(to some extent)
People who have no idea what it all mean
Tertiary users
consumers
the general public

11. Participants Thai/foreign researchers in Thailand
Thai researchers overseas
Foreign researchers overseas
Entrepreneurs
Other stakeholders

12. Experience with Foresight Tools
Delphi used in Thailand Agricultural Foresight ( )
scenario planning (2000)
experts think of scenario of Thailand in 2010
free-form future analysis (2001)
researchers think of their ‘champion product’ in 2010
group expert opinion (2001)
a mixture of experts in many fields to think of the shape of biotechnology in 2020

13. Expected achievements
Program completed by 2003
Formulation of some policy recommendations
Continuation into future foresight programs