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GROWTHPOINT RETAIL PORTFOLIO UPDATE

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Presentation on theme: "GROWTHPOINT RETAIL PORTFOLIO UPDATE"— Presentation transcript:

1 GROWTHPOINT RETAIL PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Standard Bank Investors Conference: 26 November 2014

2 Key Performance Indicators

3 RETAIL PORTFOLIO VACANCY
VACANCIES RETAIL PORTFOLIO VACANCY GLA 904,467m² VACANCY 38,793m² 4.29% Loss of potential Rental R4.7mil p.m. TOP 15 (80% by value) 606,411m² 17,748m² 2.90% VACANCY Excl. GLA UNDER DEVELOPMENT 11,868m² 1.96% NEW FINALISED LETS 3,409m²

4 PROJECTED VACANCY MOVEMENT
VACANCY BREAKDOWN OFFICE GLA 10,574m² UNLETTABLE/UNDER DEVELOPMENT 8,480m² City View ex Action Cricket Lakeside ex Nu Metro River Square – Redevelopment LETTABLE RETAIL GLA VACANT 19,739m² 2.2% PROJECTED VACANCY MOVEMENT CURRENT VACANCY 38,793m² PROPERTY SALES IN PROGRESS -8,756m² Arcadia, Norkem NEW FINALISED LETTING -4,240m² CONFIRMED FUTURE MAJOR VACANCIES 693m² Rental greater than R100k/mth ELLERINES IMPACT 2,872m² Effective 1/12 7,764m² Effective 1/4/15

5 ARREARS LONG-TERM ARREARS TREND October 2014 Rand % TOTAL COLLECTIONS
 % TOTAL COLLECTIONS 226,707,467 TOTAL ARREARS 23,062,468 10% LEGAL 9,268,345 4% DEPOSITS 2,609,911 1% COLLECTABLE ARREARS 11,184,212 5% PROVISION FOR BAD DEBTS 10,257,386 44% ELLERINES COMPONENT 739,475 NATIONAL RETAILERS  R7.3mil RESTAURANTS/FAST FOODS  R8.2mil WRITE-OFF's AS % OF COLLECTIONS Y-T-D 2013/14 2012/13 0.20% 0.10% LONG-TERM ARREARS TREND

6 ARREARS ARREAS Y-o-Y PROVISION FOR BAD DEBT Y-o-Y

7 VACANCY MOVEMENTS : 1 July to 31 October 2014
LEASING VACANCY MOVEMENTS : 1 July to 31 October 2014 TOTAL RETAIL GLA VACANCY Balance at 1 July 2014 907,604 40,462 4.46% GLA Adjustments -3,389 -4,232 Disposals - Acquisitions Extensions 250 Leases expired in the period 42,613 Renewals of expired leases -37,134 New letting of vacant space -10,907 Leases terminated 7,741 Balance at 31 October 2014 904,465 38,793 4.29% Renewal Success Rate 87.14% Weighted Avg Renewal Growth (by Gross Rental) 6.40% Average Renewal Lease Period 3.75 yrs Weighted Avg. future escalations on renewals 7.31%

8 PROPERTY INCOME TYPICAL SMALL REGIONAL SHOPPING CENTRE INCOME GROWTH MODEL GLA RENTAL CONTRIBUTION RENTAL ESCALATION NATIONAL ANCHOR COMPONENT 35% 18% 6.50% NATIONAL RETAILER COMPONENT 30% 7.50% LINE SHOPS/FRANCHISEES 52% 8% PERCENTAGE LEASES BY GLA EXPIRING PER ANNUM 20% SPLIT 2.75% 8.75% 8.50% ANCHORS NATIONALS LINE SHOPS 80% IN FORCE LEASES - INCREASE IN INCOME 6.06% 20% RENEWALS: INC INCREASE 10% 8.02% 15% 9.02% 10.06% 25% 11.06% Assumptions: No vacancy movement No rent-free periods

9 Portfolio Income Growth

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11 PROPERTY INCOME & EXPENSES
Turnover Rental Woolworths Other Parking Revenue Transaction Costs TI’s Rent-free periods / BO periods

12 Portfolio Trading

13 Consumer Position High Income vs. Low & Middle Income markets Risks:
Relative outperformance but not immune to slowing economy Credit major differentiator Consumer Confidence differs depending on exposure to unemployment, strikes and cost pressures Growthpoint Portfolio position Risks: Aspirational shopper disappearing Stock market performance Increasing interest rates Higher personal taxes and VAT increase

14 Changing Consumer Behaviour
Convenience Migration to convenience for food purchases Stagnant/declining foot counts at most centres Access/parking/lay-out important driver Price/product range differentiation On-line Shopping: Limitations: Transaction Processing, logistics, experiential International Trends Growthpoint strategy Connectivity & analytics

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16 Y / Y % Growth Affluent Solid-Middle Lower-Middle CBD / Commuter
BROOKLYN MALL 8.2% LA LUCIA MALL 5.6% WALMER PARK 8.1% CONSTANTIA VILLAGE 4.4% Solid-Middle WATERFALL MALL -3.3% KOLONNADE 5.9% WOODMEAD RETAIL PARK 3.8% RIVER SQUARE -1.7% Lower-Middle NORTHGATE LONGBEACH MALL 11.3% CBD / Commuter LAKESIDE MALL 3.6% ALBERTON CITY 1.3% GOLDEN ACRE 10.2% CITY VIEW 0.3% CITY MALL -2.0% HATFIELD PLAZA -0.5%

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18 Rental Affordability TOP 10 CENTRES VALUE (R mil) GLA VALUE / M2
COST OF OCCUPANCY AVE. TRADING DENSITY (12 Months) BROOKLYN MALL (75%) 1,953 56,069 34,839 8.0% 2,759 WATERFALL MALL 1,287 49,228 26,142 7.0% 2,626 LAKESIDE MALL 1,234 67,515 18,270 6.8% 2,068 LA LUCIA MALL 1,066 36,379 29,295 7.3% 2,874 KOLONNADE (50%) 958 37,893 25,292 6.3% 2,828 WALMER PARK 901 43,202 20,858 2,430 ALBERTON CITY 877 47,615 18,414 7.5% 2,133 CONSTANTIA VILLAGE 813 20,370 39,926 4.5% 5,792 NORTHGATE (50%) 756 45,329 16,669 10.0% 1,654 WOODMEAD RETAIL PARK 732 54,891 13,328 2,831

19 Listed Retailers Listed Retailers GLA Ave. Trading Density (12 Months)
CHECKERS 23,229 2,817 PICK 'N PAY 73,420 2,625 CLICKS 13,781 3,204 GAME 35,886 2,012 MR PRICE HOME 10,809 1,905 MR PRICE APPAREL 13,717 2,685 FOSCHINI 9,128 1,869 TRUWORTHS 14,293 2,505 WOOLWORTHS 59,066 2,965

20 RECENT NEW COMPETITION POTENTIAL or NEW COMPETITION
CENTRE RECENT NEW COMPETITION POTENTIAL or NEW COMPETITION ALBERTON CITY Makro Newmarket, Mall of the South, Meyerton BROOKLYN MALL Lynwood Bridge, The Club Centre Menlyn extension CITY MALL Flamwood Mall, Matlosana Mall KOLONNADE Wonder Park redevelopment Wonderboom Junction extension, WW stand-alone LAKESIDE MALL Carnival Mall extension F&G Centre, Retail Africa Development LONGBEACH MALL Blue Route redevelopment Checkers Centre NORTHGATE Cradle Stone, Cosmo Centre x2 Fourways redevelopment RIVER SQUARE Bentels centre Vaal Mall extension THE AVENUES F&G proposed 60000m2 centre, Springs CONSTANTIA VILLAGE WALMER PARK BayWest, Boardwalk extension WATERFALL MALL Platinum Junction WOODMEAD RETAIL PARK Waterfall Lifestyle centre Mall of Africa, Kyalami Checkers Centre

21 Ellerines TOTAL RETAIL EXPOSURE R1,479mil p.m
Beares/Dial-a-Bed continuing stores Arcadia, Woodmead, Walerfall Mall, Meadowdale, Brooklyn, Beacon Bay Leases Terminated as at end October Waterfall Value centre, Woodmead, OK Empangeni Leases Terminating end November City View, OK Empangeni, Lakeside Rental Losses September 50% R Expected to be recovered in full Financial Year to end June R3.8mil Assuming vacating end March 2014 R1.7mil MITIGATING ACTION Woodmead: Geen & Richards re-tenanted Blackheath: Sold Brooklyn: Mr Price Sport/ Incredible Connection Amrel: Redevelopment to motor showroom City View: Woolworths Textiles Development

22 ACUCAP/SYCOM

23 Acucap/Sycom Retail Portfolio Assessment
Current Developments/extensions Opportunities Gardens Centre Howard Centre Risks Port Elizabeth Kempton Park Hillcrest/Kloof exposure

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