1. Natural Disaster Impact Assessment: Using OTM for Labor Market Analysis
March 19, :00 pm (eastern)

2. Presenters
Presenters:
George Putnam
Allan Ross
Moderator:
Anthony Dais, Employment and Training Administration

3. Presentation Slide Area
Attendee List
Presentation Slide Area
Chat Room
Presentation Slide Area
Moderator:
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6. Webinar Resources:
Recordings available within 2 business days after the event.
All resources are posted under the…

7. Presenters
Presenters:
George Putnam
Allan Ross
Moderator:
Tony Dias

8. Presenter Introduction George Putnam, Asst. Manager
Illinois Department of Employment Security

9. Overview of Presentation
Does a role exist for labor market information in disaster assessment?
What is the information yield from OTM for disaster assessment?
What are the key steps to using OTM for disaster assessment?
Gather Information
Define Physical Location(s) of the Disaster
Specify Study Criteria
Using OTM Reports
What is the information yield from OTM for estimation of disaster-related initial claims and service delivery?

10. Does a role exist for labor market information in disaster assessment?
Conventional response- no
Prescribed geographic definitions
Confidentiality (state and federal mandates)
OTM response- LMI is relevant and critical
Enhance geocoding of core LMI data
Implement statistically rigorous disclosure proofing techniques
the limitations of traditional LMI severely constrain its utility for disaster assessment
in the past, labor market information has been mostly available for larger geographic configurations: state, metropolitan areas or, in some limited cases, counties; disaster assessment often does not fit well with this configurations because, not surprisingly, the impact of natural disasters is not often circumscribed by the boundaries of the aforementioned geographies; indeed our example today includes multiple states and subsections of multiple counties
moreover, labor market information is produced in accordance with state and federal mandates on confidentiality; we relay on employer participation in our (State Workforce Agency) collection of LMI primary micro data and pledge confidentiality to ensure that information on a particular establishment is not released to the public; the most common form of protecting confidentiality of lmi has been “primary-secondary” disclosure
OTM was designed from the beginning as a statistical program to address both of these concerns
first, the unit of geography is not the state, metropolitan area or county but the census block (a constituent component of a census tract); users can literally re-create the boundaries of the natural disaster with the OTM software that taps into a rich database of lmi for only the configuration of the natural disaster
second, the OTM initiative implements an innovative approach to disclosure proofing, using statistical imputation, that permits release of unprecedented detail on worker and industries while maintaining confidentiality

11. What is the information yield from OTM for disaster assessment?
Labor market characteristics of those impacted by a natural disaster
What is the age of workers in the area?
What is the earnings of workers in the area?
What industries are located in the area?
How many jobs does each industry provide?
What is the commutation pattern of workers in the area?

12. What is the information yield from OTM for disaster assessment?
OTM information layers that enhance the labor market information yield
Groupings of workers by ownership
Private- and public-sector workers; private-sector workers
Groupings of workers by age range
Age 30 or younger; age 31 to 54; age 55 or older
Groupings of workers by earnings range
$1,200 or less; $1,201 to $3,400; more than $3,400 (per month)
Groupings of workers by industry sector
Goods producing; trade/transportation/utilities; all other services

13. Presenter’s Picture here if available
Allan Ross,
Manager, Local Employment Dynamics
Illinois Department of Employment Security

14. Define Physical Location(s) of the Disaster. Specify Study Criteria.
Key Steps
Gather Information.
Define Physical Location(s) of the Disaster.
Specify Study Criteria.
Using OTM Reports and Maps.

15. Gather Information
Type of disaster
Date, time, and duration
Physical location
Extent of the destruction
Estimated duration of disruption caused by the event

16. Gather Information Useful Web Pages
Useful Web pages for gathering background information about disasters:
National Weather Service
Wikipedia
Disaster News Network
Media Web Pages
Private Industrial Web Pages
Federal Emergency Management Agency
State Emergency Management Agencies

17. Gather Information: Type of disaster; date/time/ duration; location; extent of destruction
A National Weather Service bulletin dated 02/06/ contained reports on a series of tornados that occurred on 02/05/2008. Following is part of one of the reports:
...THIS TORNADO CONTINUED FROM SOUTHAVEN MISSISSIPPI AND PROCEEDED NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE TORNADO STRUCK THE DSC WAREHOUSE CAUSING THE 3 FATALITIES...THEN CONTINUED NORTHEAST CAUSING DAMAGE AT THE HICKORY RIDGE MALL AND 6 ADDITIONAL INJURIES BEFORE LIFTING AT 545 PM CST. THE TOTAL TORNADO PATH LENGTH WAS 11 MILES AND WIDTH WAS ONE QUARTER MILE.
Other Web sources pinpointed the starting location as Southaven High School, and located the DSC Warehouse as just southwest of the mall.

18. Gather Information Extent of destruction; duration of disruption
Google provided a link to the Hickory Ridge Mall Web site. This is an excerpt:
Hickory Ridge Mall Closed Due to Tornado Damage Hickory Ridge Mall is closed due to damages sustained by the February 5, tornado. We are eager to reopen our doors soon to serve our community. We will continue to update this site on the status of the mall with information as it becomes available.

19. Key Steps
Gather Information.
Define Physical Location(s) of the Disaster.
Specify Study Criteria.
Using OTM Reports and Maps.

20. Define Location Mapping the Southaven High School area

21. Define Location Mapping the Hickory Ridge Mall area

22. Define Location Tornado path drawn over aerial view

23. Define Location OTM Study Area Selection
Tornado lifted here
Line drawn to connect the two end points
¼ mile radius around the selection line
Tennessee–Mississippi state line
Tornado struck ground here

24. Key Steps
Gather Information.
Define Physical Location(s) of the Disaster.
Specify Study Criteria.
Using OTM Reports and Maps.

25. Specify Study Criteria OTM analysis parameters
Live or work
Year(s)
Job type
Study area selection
Type of analysis (profile or shed)
Labor market segments (age, earnings, industry class, or all)
Selection tools (layer, point, line, freehand, ring/buffer, donut, plume)
Profile or shed analysis
Map precision

26. Specify Study Criteria Job Types: All Sectors
All Jobs. Public and private sector jobs. If a worker has multiple jobs, each is counted.
Primary Jobs. Public and private sector workers’ highest paying jobs. A worker can only have one highest-paying job, so this reports all workers.
All Private Jobs. Private sector jobs. If a worker has multiple jobs, each is counted.
Primary Private Jobs. Private sector workers’ highest paying jobs. A worker can only have one highest-paying job, so this reports all workers.

27. Specify Study Criteria Job Types: Private Sector
All Jobs. Public and private sector jobs. If a worker has multiple jobs, each is counted.
Primary Jobs. Public and private sector workers’ highest paying jobs. A worker can only have one highest-paying job, so this reports all workers.
All Private Jobs. Private sector jobs. If a worker has multiple jobs, each is counted.
Primary Private Jobs. Private sector workers’ highest paying jobs. A worker can only have one highest-paying job, so this reports all workers.

28. Key Steps
Gather Information.
Define Physical Location(s) of the Disaster.
Specify Study Criteria.
Using OTM Reports and Maps.

29. WORKERS EMPLOYED IN STUDY AREA EMPLOYED RESIDENTS OF STUDY AREA
Reports
TYPE OF ANALYSIS
WORKERS EMPLOYED IN STUDY AREA
EMPLOYED RESIDENTS OF STUDY AREA
Labor Market Characteristics (Area Profile Analysis)
Age ranges
Earnings per month
Industry sectors
Locations
(Shed Analysis)
Home/residential locations (Labor Shed analysis)
Workplace locations (Commute Shed analysis)

30. Intro to Area Profile Reports
TYPE OF ANALYSIS
WORKERS EMPLOYED IN STUDY AREA
EMPLOYED RESIDENTS OF STUDY AREA
Labor Market Characteristics (Area Profile Analysis)
Age ranges
Earnings per month
Industry sectors
Locations
(Shed Analysis)
Home/residential locations (Labor Shed analysis)
Workplace locations (Commute Shed analysis)

31. Area Profile: Total Jobs

32. Area Profile: Age Ranges

33. Area Profile: Earnings Ranges

34. Area Profile: Industries

35. Area Profile: Workers & Residents
TYPE OF ANALYSIS
WORKERS EMPLOYED IN STUDY AREA
EMPLOYED RESIDENTS OF STUDY AREA
Labor Market Characteristics (Area Profile Analysis)
Age ranges
Earnings per month
Industry sectors
Locations
(Shed Analysis)
Home/residential locations (Labor Shed analysis)
Workplace locations (Commute Shed analysis)

36. Area Profiles, Tornado Area Segments: Total Jobs

37. Area Profiles, Tornado Area Segments: Workers’ Age Ranges

38. Area Profiles, Tornado Area Segments: Workers’ Earnings

39. Area Profiles, Tornado Area Segments: Industries
…the dominant industries located in the two areas.
80% percent of the mall workers are employed in just two industries, Retail Trade and Accommodation/Food Services; only 10% of the workers in the outlying area of the tornado path work in those industries. Businesses in these two industries tend to employ younger employees and offer lower pay.
Outside the mall, nearly 80% of the workers are employed in Manufacturing, Wholesale Trade, Transportation/Warehousing, and Real Estate--industries typically paying higher compensation. In contrast, less than 6% of the mall workers are employed in those industries.

40. Labor & Commute Shed Reports
TYPE OF ANALYSIS
WORKERS EMPLOYED IN STUDY AREA
EMPLOYED RESIDENTS OF STUDY AREA
Labor Market Characteristics (Area Profile Analysis)
Age ranges
Earnings per month
Industry sectors
Locations
(Shed Analysis)
Home/residential locations (Labor Shed analysis)
Workplace locations (Commute Shed analysis)
Now we’ll consider OnTheMap’s other type of analytic report, the shed report. We will view, side by side, the tornado area’s Labor and Commute Sheds.
The Labor Shed is the cities/towns, counties, and states where area workers live.
The Commute Shed is the cities/towns, counties, and states where area employed residents work.
OnTheMap supports several types of rollups. For this study we accepted the default rollups of Cities &Towns, Counties, and States. But when entering selection criteria for shed reports, you can override the defaults and choose alternates, including congressional districts, Workforce Investment Areas, and Zip Codes. George will use one of these alternate rollups in his presentation on the use of OnTheMap and Disaster Related Claims.

41. Labor & Commute Shed Reports: Cities
Most of the area’s workers (59.8%) live in Memphis, Tennessee, and most of the area’s resident workers (52.0%) are employed in this city. However the area’s workers are more dispersed across other cities and towns, whereas 15.0% of the area’s resident workers are in a single town, Southaven, MS.

42. Tornado area labor shed

43. Tornado area commute shed

44. Presenter Introduction George Putnam, Asst. Manager
Illinois Department of Employment Security

45. One-Stop Centers as a primary State actor
Does a role exist for labor market information in a State’s response to disaster assessment?
One-Stop Centers as a primary State actor
Focus on real-time needs of worker subpopulations (workload)
Service delivery by defined geographies
Disaster-related initial claims
Regular UI benefits
Disaster unemployment assistance (DUA)

46. Can OTM facilitate the estimation of workload for disaster-related claims?
Current methodology for workload estimation
Potential workload = (projected severity of disaster * labor force in impacted area)
Projected severity based on historical experience and analytic judgment
Labor force equates impacted population with employed and unemployed residents

47. OTM-based methodology for workload estimation
Can OTM facilitate the estimation of workload for disaster-related claims?
OTM-based methodology for workload estimation
Potential workload = (projected severity of disaster * workers employed in impacted area)
Projected severity based on historical experience and analytic judgment
“Workers employed” concept closely aligns with definitional requirements of disaster- related initial claims

48. Can OTM facilitate the estimation of workload for disaster-related claims?
Workload estimation- tornado area
Current methodology
Employed residents- 1,511 persons
Unemployed residents- unknown
(tornado area doesn’t coincide with standard labor force area)
OTM methodology
Workers employed- 7,137 persons

49. Can OTM facilitate service delivery for disaster-related claims?
Geographic definition of service delivery
Current methodology
Tornado area doesn’t coincide with standard labor force area
Assumes client concentration within impacted area
OTM workload methodology
Workers employed in tornado path 7,137 persons
Who reside within tornado path persons
Who reside outside of tornado path ,089 persons
Who reside within Tennessee ,020 persons
Who reside in other states ,117 persons

50. Can OTM facilitate service delivery by Workforce Boards?

51. Can OTM facilitate service delivery by Workforce Boards?

52. Can OTM facilitate service delivery by One-Stop Centers?

53. Can OTM facilitate service delivery by One-Stop Centers?

54. What is the information yield for service delivery of disaster claims?
OTM information layers that enhance the labor market information yield
Groupings of workers by ownership
Private- and public-sector workers; private-sector workers
Groupings of workers by age range
Age 30 or younger; age 31 to 54; age 55 or older
Groupings of workers by earnings range
$1,200 or less; $1,201 to $3,400; more than $3,400 (per month)
Groupings of workers by industry sector
Goods producing; trade/transportation/utilities; all other services

55. George Putnam Allan Ross George.Putnam@illinois.gov
Contact Information
George Putnam
Allan Ross

56. Please enter your questions into the Chat Room!
Question and Answer Period
(ADVANCE SLIDE)
Please enter your questions into the Chat Room!

57. Employment and Training Administration
Contact Information
Anthony Dais
U S Department of Labor
Employment and Training Administration
Workforce Information and Economic Analysis Super Category on Workforce3One

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