1. Chains (Agribusiness Systems) Analysis and Methods
Chapters: 25, 26
Prof. Dr. Marcos Fava Neves
University of São Paulo, Brazil
Visiting International Professor at Purdue University

2. The ChainPlan method for strategic planning and management of chains1
Initiatives of Leaders,
Government, and
Research
Institute/ Universities
in planning the future
of the Chain. 2
Description,
Mapping and
Quantification
of the Chain 3
Creation of a
Vertical trade
Association 4
Elaboration of
the Strategic
Plan for the
Chain 5
Management
of Strategic
Projects

3. SUGAR-CANE CHAIN IN BRAZIL
GDP in 2008: USD 28 billion; Financial Movement of the Chain in one year: US$ 86 billion
Before Farms
USD 9.252,42 mm
Gross Revenue
Farms: Production
USD ,75 mm
After Farms
Industrial Inputs: USD 6.414,39 mm Industry: USD ,17 mm
Ethanol Distr.: USD ,56 mm Sugar Distri.: USD 4.003,15 mm
Fertilizers
USD 2.259,09 million
Sugar cane Production
Own:
USD 6.387,91 million
Suppliers:
USD 5.121,84 million
INDUSTRY/DESTILLERY
USD ,17 million
FINAL CONSUMER
Equipaments
USD 3.400,99 million
Defensives
USD 768,44 million
Ethanol
USD ,36 million
USD milhões
Internal Market
Steam Generator: 667,13
USD million
Lime
USD 50,56 million
Distributor
USD 8.624,05 million
Gas Station
USD ,50 million
Hydrous: 6.615,58
Extraction: 568,13
Resale and
Cooperatives
USD 477,54 milhões com defensivos
Anhydrous: 2.972,89
Auto-parts and maintenance services
USD 2.851,19 million
Distillery: 469,13
Not Energy: 438,78
Beverage industry and cosmetics
Sugar Industry: 354,38
Mercado Externo
Energy Generator: 274,5
USD million
Harvesters
USD 426,52 million
Assembly: 411,75
Hydrous : 1.179,91
Maintenance: 655,98
Anhydrous : 1.210,20
Tractors
USD 320,87 million
Automation/Instrumentation
USD 269,76 million
Sugar
USD ,08 million
Retail
USD 3.259,26 million
Internal Market
Attachments
USD 425,66 million
Electrical Installations
USD 366,00 million
USD million
Wholesale
USD 743,89 million
Industry: 2.037,88
Building
USD 594,75 million
Wholesale: 580,57
Food industry and other
Trucks
USD 331,36 million
Retail: 1.663,66
Assembly Services and Maintenance
USD 1.110,35 million
External market
USD million
Bodies, trailers and semitrailers
USD 233,36 million
Gross Sugar: 3.649,55
Free
Consumer
Quimical Products
USD 463,82 million
White: 1.833,41
Bioelectricity
USD 389,63 milhões
Distributor
Special
Consumer
Diesel and Lubricants
USD 1.054,01 million
Fuel oil and lubricants USD 94,19 million
Yeasts and Additives
USD 63,61 million
PPI
USD 53,80 million
Bags
USD 45,42 million
Internal Market
USD million
Feed industry
Feed Industry: 21,41
Big Bags
USD 14,67 million
External Market
USD million
Feed Industry: 42,20
Lab materials
USD 15,46 million
Facilitating agents
USD ,58 mm
Carbon Credit
USD 3,48 million
PPI
USD 38,96 million
Bio plastic
(non commercial scale)
Facilitating agents – USD million
BNDES: 3.530,79 CCT Outsourced 1: 916,32 Road Export Freight: 539, Exports Toll (Santos): 79,96
Port Cost (Santos): 213, R&D: 79,15 Events: 5, Magazines: 3,99
payroll : 738, Health plans 3: 125, Meals4: 188, Aggregates tax in SAG: 6.8 billion
1- South Center region. 2- Exports by Portos de Santos e Paranaguá. 3 e 4 – Only São Paulo state.
Source: Neves, Trombin, Consoli, 2009.

4. Sumary of ChainPlan plan (step 4)6
Production, Products,
Research and
Development, and
Innovation Projects 1
INTRODUCTION AND UNDERSTANDING 2
Market Analysis
with the Chain
Approach 4
OBJECTIVES FOR THE CHAIN 5
STRATEGY FOR THE CHAIN 11
CHAINPLAN BUDGET 12
STRUCTURE THE GOVERNANCE (EXECUTION)
OF THE CHAIN PROJECTS 7
Communications
Projects 8
Distribution and
Logistic
Projects 3
Analysis of
Internal
Situation and
Competitors 9
Human Resources
and Qualification
Projects 10
Institutional
Environment
and Coordination
Projects

5. 3- Doing a Strategic Plan for a Chain
1 – Warm Up: Planning in 15 P’s...
2 – The Structure of a Chain
3- Doing a Strategic Plan for a Chain
4 – Scenario Analysis as Part of the Strategic Plan
5 – Final Message: In Search of Efficiency...

6. FINAL CONSUMERS DISTRIBUTION MARKETING INDUSTRY PROCESSING INDUSTRY
How will the consumer look like?
What will be value for them?
How new products can affect the market?
What are the trends in income?
What will be the effect in developing and emerging countries?
What changes will occur in buying behavior (conscious, environment, sustainable)?
How demographic trends affect consumption?
How preferences will change?
How will be the acceptance to GMO’s and other technologies?
DISTRIBUTION
What are the trends in retailing?
Will retail concentration and global operation movement continue?
What to expect from private labels?
Which will be the effects of technology and price transparency?
Which will be the policies toward supply chain (purchasing)?
How competition among retailers will affect the chain?
What will be the role of foodservice?
MARKETING
INDUSTRY
FOOD INDUST
Which will be the speed of New Product Development (NPD)?
How will consolidation look like?
How will costs margins and profitability of product-lines look like?
How will be the relationship with retailers and agro- industry?
What are the roles of regional companies?
Who are the new players diversifying to this market?
Which is the growth expectation for this industry?
How to solve the logistics problems to supply the emerging markets?
PROCESSING
INDUSTRY
AGRO - INDUSTRY
How industry will be the structured?
Will the agro- industry be concentrated?
The agroindustry would operate in global scale?
How would be the logistics to the clients and purchasing behavior?
Who will be new players?
Where they may come from?
What will be the degree of own production of inputs?
How will operating costs and margins look like?
FARMERS
How production will be structured?
How will concentration happen?
Will it be more professional?
What will be the most competitive areas in the world?
Which are the growing areas and declining areas?
What will be the role of cooperatives and associations?
Crops will be substituted in some areas?
How plagues and diseases will affect the chain?
How to expect from regulation changes?
How production costs will look like?
INPUTS
SUPPLIERS
What innovations will come to market?
What movements upward the supply chain will be done?
How will the selling and distribution channel structure look like?
The concept of offering integrated solutions for farmers will be the most suitable one?
How will the situation of genetic modified organism (GMO) be?

7. Question of the day
Based on the list of major uncertainties (PEST), choose a product (chain) and list 10 major challenges you seen in 2026…