1. Population and Economic Trends For Northern Colorado
Transitions
Population and Economic Trends For Northern Colorado
EDCC
2017
Elizabeth Garner
State Demography Office
Colorado Department of Local Affairs
Demography.dola.colorado.gov

2. Transitions to Watch Disparate growth across state.
Industrial transitions
Retail – consolidation
Manufacturing – more automation
Transportation – more automation
Construction – more automation
Aging – will impact economy.
Increase racial and ethnic diversity
Growing and slowing

3. Big Picture - 2015-2016 Pop Change
US – million, million or .7%
Colorado - 5,540,500
Ranked 7th fastest 1.7% - UT, NV, ID, FL, WA, OR
8th absolute growth 91,700 – TX, FL, CA, WA, AZ, NC, GA
Range in Colorado
+14,000
-50

4. 19 with negative growth from 2010-2016.
This is an improvement from the past.
29 negative growth
27 negative growth
22 negative growth
14 counties lost pop
10 counties lost population

6. Weld 2nd fastest and 6th in total change since 2010
Larimer 5th fastest and 7th total since 2010

8. Age

10. State Demography Office v2015

11. Employment Transitions: Retail - Consolidation
Manufacturing – automation
Transportation – automation
Warehousing - automation
48,000 job change since 2010 and about 80,000 people.

12. Economic Drivers

13. AGE

14. Why Are We Getting Old Fast?
Currently very few people over the age 65.
6th lowest share of all states in US (13%) in 2015
Baby Boomers
Born 1946 – 1964
1,360,000 Boomers in Colorado (25% of pop. in 2015)
By 2030, Colorado’s population 65+ will be 77% larger than it was in 2015 growing from 719,000 to 1,270,000. (primarily from aging)
Transition age distribution from “young” to more US average between 2015 and 2030.
State Demography Office, Census Bureau

15. Growth in young adults due to migration Demographic Dividend
AGE

16. Aging

17. Aging Issues Numbers Economic Driver - wealthier …. depends
Impact on occupational mix
Labor Force
Housing
Income – Downward Pressure
Health
Disabilities
Transportation
Public Finance – Downward Pressure

18. Labor Force Tightening
Largest share of population in highest labor participation rates hit peak in 2010.
Boomers aging out – but many staying longer
Participation rate of 65+ increase from 14% in 1990 to 19% 2010
Approx. 1,000,000 workers aging out the next 20 years. Largest increase in leavers between
Female share of the labor force peaked in 2010 at 46%.
Fewer Gen X
Oldest Aged Industries - Education, Health, Utilities, Mining, Govt., Transportation.
Higher un/under employment for year olds during recession.
Lowest unemployment region in lowest unemployment state.
Estimated leavers based on age and participation rates.
= 300,000
2010 – 2020 = 400,000
2020 – 2030 = 600,000
Manufacturing a touch older than the median nationally Median age for all workers and 44.5 for Manufacturing.
Challenge nationally attracting some younger workers.  They were in the bottom third of all industries in terms of their share of Millennial workers in 2015 at 27% Millennial vs. 35% for all industries.
In 2015 there were roughly the same number of year olds as there were 25 to 34 year olds working in manufacturing at about 29,500 for each age group.
However for all industries there were 558K 25 to 34 year olds and only 393K year olds

19. Median Home Value

20. Commuting to Jobs In Larimer and Weld 2014 Data
Source:

21. More Racially and Ethnically Diverse

22. This makes it look like aging Hispanics may not be a big deal but between 2000 and 2010 Hispanic 65+ increased by 56% compared to the entire population which increased by 32% Forecast to increase by 97%
Census Bureau

24. Growing and Slowing

25. State Demography Office v2015

27.
Change from
State – 2.8 mill
Front Range – 2.4 mil
Denver Metro – 1.4
NFR K
SFR K
WS K
CM - 61K
SLV - 11K
EP - 64K
Non Front Range - 470

28. Larimer and Weld Growth Rates

29. Forecast – Fastest Region in State
175,000 jobs
470K people

30. Summary in Northern Colorado
Migration – how much, where, and can we compete for the best and the brightest? The Right Fit
Aging – we are getting old fast, is NOCO ready for the changes to the labor force, income, industrial mix (job growth), housing, etc.
Ethnic/race diversity – increasing and aging into labor force. Educational attainment gap continues putting downward pressure on income and labor force.
Industrial transitions – Ready for the transitions? What are your biggest risks or constraints?
Automation, Consolidation - Retail
Plan for the Transitions – Discuss and Design, Implement when needed. What would we do if…….

31. Thank you State Demography Office Department of Local Affairs
Elizabeth Garner
Demography.dola.colorado.gov