1. SR 156 Level 2 Toll Study TAMC Board Meeting August 23, 2017

5. Toll Demand Modeling and Analysis Process
AMBAG
Model
Toll Alternatives
Supplemental EIR Information and Analysis
Financial Analysis
Sub-area Toll Model
Scenarios and Testing
Traffic Operations
Cellular / GPS Data (Big Data)
Socio Economic Data
Blue Tooth Path Survey
Traffic Counts
Road user profiles by day and season
Visitor Data
Travel time surveys
Speed surveys
AMBAG model input review
Emphasize the sub-area toll model looked at weekends and peak periods.

6. Primary Diversion Routes
Castroville Boulevard
Blackie Road

7. Peak Season Weekend Midday – Volume/Capacity

8. Peak Season Weekday Midday – Volume/Capacity

9. US 101 Weaving Constraints
0.70 miles spacing
5 conflict points NB
Replace arrows with “collision stars” showing four conflict points removed by the project.

10. US 101 Benefits 0.85 miles spacing 3 conflict points NB
Replace arrows with “collision stars” showing four conflict points removed by the project.

11. Construction Schedule

12. Diversions with Toll and Year
Delivery Method
Year
Daily Toll1
Daily Diversion2
Public
Opening (2028)
$3.60
35%-45%
2035
$3.90
40%-45%
2078
$5.90
45%-50% P3
Opening (2025)
$4.20
2075
$7.60
45%-55%
1 – 2015 U.S. Dollars
2 - varies by time of year, time of day, and vehicle type.

13. Local toll discounts

14. Financial Forecasts Two base scenarios Toll rates increase annually
Public Funding Option
P3 Funding Option
Toll rates increase annually
Toll diversion based on toll rates
Costs only for Toll road construction, maintenance and reconstruction
Roadway capacity impacts on Expressway and diversion routes based on toll rates and season
Stress test

15. Toll Road Project Funding Sources
Capital funding options available to pay project costs include:
Financing Options
Toll Revenue Bonds
Federal TIFIA Loan
Equity
Other Funding Sources:
Local, State, Federal Grants
TAMC: Measure X
P3 Scenario
Changes from June results
Stripped out
Construction Costs: Associated with existing SR-156, Blackie and Castroville (about $20 million)
Lifecycle Costs: Major Maintenance and full reconstruction costs for existing SR-156, Blackie and Castroville
New lifecycle cost curve for the tolled portion of SR-156
Full funding of all lifecycle costs
For public delivery the reduction in costs translates to almost equal reduction in funding gap
For P3 the unfunded gap increased slightly from June due to funding of full reconstruction costs from residual revenues as well as a slightly higher target IRR

16. Toll Revenue Cash Flow Waterfall
Toll revenues are the sole funding sources for all ongoing costs
Gross Toll Revenues
Less: O&M Costs
Net Revenues
Senior Lien Debt Service
(Bonds)
Sub. Lien Debt Service
(TIFIA Loan)
Less: Major Maintenance Costs
Less: Full Reconstruction Set-asides
Residual Revenues
Gross Toll Revenues
Less: O&M Costs
Less: Major Maintenance Costs
Net Revenues
Senior Lien Debt Service
(Bonds)
Sub. Lien Debt Service
(TIFIA Loan)
Less: Full Reconstruction Set-asides
Residual Revenues
Return on Equity
Public Delivery
P3 Scenario

17. Summary of Assumptions: Public vs P3
Delta
(P3 – Public)
Notes
Project Costs*
Project Cost
$374.3 MM
$339.0 MM
-35.3 MM
Shorter schedule/reduced inflationary impact
Project Schedule
Project Start
2019
Increased delivery efficiency with P3
Tolling Start
2028
2025
3 yrs
Toll Rate and Revenues
Total Revenues (50 years)
$3.66 B
$3.71 B
51.5 MM
Increased revenues driven by higher toll rate increases
Annual Toll Rate Increase**
1.00%
1.50%
0.50%
Operations over 50 Years
Total O&M Costs (50 years)
$1.42 B
$1.26 B MM
Earlier start date provides inflationary benefits to P3
Major Maintenance
$63.7 MM
$57.7 MM
-6.0 MM
Full Reconstruction
$258.2 MM
$232.6 MM
-25.6 MM
*Include the impact of inflation
**In addition to inflationary toll increase of 2.50% annually

18. Summary of Results: Public vs. P3
Delta
(P3 – Public)
CAPITAL FUNDING RESULTS
Funding Uses
Construction Cost
$374.4 MM
$339.1 MM
-$35.3 MM
Financing Costs
$41. 3 MM
$26.6 MM
-$14.7 MM
Total Project Delivery Costs
$415.7 MM
$365.7 MM
-$50.0 MM
Funding Sources
TR Bond Proceeds
$103.3 MM
$47.9 MM
-$52.5 MM
TIFIA
$135.9 MM
$117.1 MM
-$18.8 MM
Equity* NA
$52.5 MM
Grant Funds/Other
$69.85 MM -
Total Funding Sources
$309.1 MM
$290.9 MM
-$18.2 MM
Project Funding Shortfall
$106.6 MM
$74.8 MM
-$31.8 MM
OPERATING PRO-FORMA RESULTS
Residual Revenues
$1.4 B $0
-$1.4 B
Change from June

19. P3 Delivery: Cash Flow Timing + Funding Gap

20. Conclusions Traffic growth requires additional roadway capacity
Increases in construction cost from Level 1 study
Construction for Public option is longer than the Private option
Shortfall in construction cost for both scenarios
P3 has a smaller shortfall
Stress test
higher toll results increased diversion and lower tolls may decrease the funding gap if more cars divert to the toll road
congestion on Castroville and Blackie keeps more cars on the toll road
Viability of the project: Is there a partner to fund the shortfall upfront? (public or private)

21. Caveats and Next Steps
Public-Private Partnership State authorization expired
Aggressive P3 schedule
Coastal Commission Permit
Santa Cruz Long-Toed Salamander
Opportunity for Caltrans to weigh in
Tolling Study Report at October TAMC Board Meeting