Chicago Executive Briefing

Chicago Executive Briefing
Prepared for RCEC September 18, 2014

National Economy Job Growth Rank - Top Ten MSA’s Ranked by Annual Job Growth State Total Employed Annual Change Percent Change SF Permit Change Dallas/Fort Worth 3,196,500 113,100 3.7% 1,467 Los Angeles 5,671,600 111,900 2.0% New York 8,839,400 111,200 1.3% 3,070 Houston 2,883,000 93,300 3.3% 3,889 Miami 2,417,900 67,900 2.9% 422 Atlanta 2,465,200 59,400 2.5% 3,243 San Francisco 2,152,400 48,000 2.3% -43 Seattle 1,825,100 40,600 -409 Orlando 1,099,800 36,100 3.4% 1,389 Denver 1,329,000 34,800 2.7% 1,007 #20 with 24,300 Net New Jobs, UP 0.5% 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrosearch USA

National Economy Home Ownership Rate - Quarterly Trend 2Q14 75.0%
74.0% 73.0% 72.0% 71.0% US Rate Midwest Rate 70.0% 69.0% 68.0% 67.0% 66.0% 65.0% 64.0% 63.0% 2q94 2q96 2q98 2q00 2q02 2q04 2q06 2q08 2q10 2q12 2q14 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: US Census Bureau

National Economy Housing Market - Top Ten MSA’s Ranked by Single Family Permits State SF Permits Annual Change Percent Change Job Growth Houston 35,451 3,889 12.3% 93,300 Dallas/Fort Worth 20,995 1,467 7.5% 113,100 Atlanta 15,158 3,243 27.2% 59,400 Washington DC 13,257 1 0.0% 6,000 Phoenix 12,121 -283 -2.3% 28,300 New York 10,527 3,070 41.2% 111,200 Austin 10,082 1,619 19.1% 31,000 Orlando 9,697 1,389 16.7% 36,100 Charlotte 9,176 1,310 21,400 Seattle 8,404 -409 -4.6% 41,600 #14 with 7,507 SF Permits, UP 17.6% 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrosearch USA

National Economy Housing Market - Top Ten MSA’s Ranked by Multi Family Permits State MF Permits Annual Change Percent Change Job Growth New York 33,358 11,122 50.0% 111,200 Dallas/Fort Worth 21,256 6,733 46.4% 113,100 Houston 19,168 2,144 12.6% 93,300 Miami 11,212 1,535 15.9% 67,900 Seattle 11,071 1,911 20.9% 40,600 Austin 10,081 -1,756 -14.8% 31,000 Washington DC 9,873 158 1.6% 6,000 Atlanta 9,279 2,597 38.9% 59,400 Denver 7,791 233 3.1% 34,800 Chicago 7,140 2,915 69.0% 24,300 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrosearch USA

The Local Market

Chicagoland Market Chicagoland Region - Year by Year Jobs Gained & Lost 150,000 < ,400 Net New Jobs > 100,000 50,000 522,500 Jobs 168,300 Jobs 237,100 Jobs -50,000 -100,000 196,700 Jobs -150,000 337,300 Jobs -200,000 -250,000 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2q14 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security

Chicagoland Market Chicagoland Region - Labor Force & Total Employed
4,250,000 Labor Force Total Employed 4,125,000 4,000,000 3,875,000 3,750,000 3,625,000 3,500,000 3,375,000 3,250,000 Jun-94 Jun-96 Jun-98 Jun-00 Jun-02 Jun-04 Jun-06 Jun-08 Jun-10 Jun-12 Jun-14 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security

Chicagoland Market Chicagoland Region - Monthly Unemployment Rate
12% 11% 9% 8% 6% 5% 3% 2% 0% Jun-94 Jun-96 Jun-98 Jun-00 Jun-02 Jun-04 Jun-06 Jun-08 Jun-10 Jun-12 Jun-14 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security

Chicagoland Market Job Growth - Jobs Added/Lost by Job Sector During Past Year Mining & Construction 1,500 Manufacturing -7,200 Trade/Trans/Utils Information Financial Act -1.8% 5,000 -1,700 -3,600 Prof&Bus Services 1.7% 13,000 Ed & Health Services 1.3% 8,600 Leisure&Hosp 3,200 Other Services 1,100 Government 0.8% 4,400 -10,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, MetrosearchUSA

Where People Work & Live
COUNTY WORK IN LIVE IN IL COUNTY TOTAL IN IA KY MO WI OTHER Boone 14,818 7,604 6,403 811 30 737 44 Cook 2,581,745 2,076,152 417,288 88,305 55,748 451 452 938 8,402 22,314 De Kalb 40,909 30,216 10,486 207 26 12 66 103 Du Page 547,116 270,521 269,275 7,320 2,475 163 53 199 1,179 3,251 Grundy 17,038 10,177 6,529 332 116 10 9 197 Kane 207,042 126,502 79,138 1,402 262 94 11 32 426 577 Kendall 27,058 14,583 12,337 138 37 57 Lake 353,007 232,703 95,562 24,742 593 160 46 162 20,925 2,856 Mc Henry 107,751 77,951 25,058 4,742 49 7 63 4,332 291 Will 227,156 145,604 75,768 5,784 4,435 48 87 177 993 Winnebago 134,742 108,675 20,261 5,806 56 67 61 5,137 439 4,258,382 3,100,688 1,018,105 139,589 63,797 1,008 656 1,581 41,425 31,122 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security

Median Income Trends Year United States Illinois Chicagoland 2005
$54,387 $59,113 $64,346 2006 $55,176 $59,225 $64,921 2007 $56,189 $59,936 $65,618 2008 $55,484 $59,970 $65,366 2009 $53,760 $57,769 $62,868 2010 $52,703 $55,784 $60,136 2011 $51,557 $54,346 $58,463 2012 $51,371 $55,137 $59,261 2013 Released in September of 2014 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security

Chicagoland Resale Market

Chicagoland Market SF Resale Housing Market - Annual Sales & Active Listings 70,000 21.0 5.1 Month’s Supply of Inventory 60,000 18.0 50,000 15.0 Sales/Listings Months Supply 40,000 12.0 30,000 9.0 20,000 6.0 10,000 3.0 0.0 2q09 4q09 2q10 4q10 2q11 Annual Sales 4q11 2q12 4q12 2q13 Months Supply 4q13 2q14 Listings 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Illinois Association of Realtors

Chicagoland Market SF Resale Housing Market - Median Price Monthly Trend 250,000 Up 7.3% from June, 2013 Up 6.2% from Previous Month 225,000 200,000 175,000 150,000 125,000 100,000 Jun’10 Dec’10 Jun’11 Dec’11 Jun’12 Dec’12 Jun’13 Dec'13 Jun'14 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Illinois Association of Realtors

Chicagoland Market Chicagoland Region - Median Sales Price, New vs. Resale 320,000 300,000 280,000 260,000 240,000 Resale New 220,000 200,000 180,000 160,000 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy Analytics

Chicagoland Market Foreclosure Transactions - 2013 & 2014 Comparison
Region YTD 2013 YTD 2014 Numeric Change Percent Change Cook County 6,177 2,059 -4,118 -66.7% Will County 2,301 2,092 -209 -9.1% Lake County 1,334 1,006 -328 -24.6% DuPage County 1,319 686 -633 -48.0% Kane County 1,165 666 -499 -42.8% Lake, IN County 659 536 -123 -18.7% Winnebago County 677 180 -497 -73.4% McHenry County 664 305 -359 -54.1% Kendall County 322 191 -131 -40.7% DeKalb County 119 96 -23 -19.3% Grundy County 13 14 1 7.7% TOTALS 14,750 7,831 -6,919 -46.9% 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metroearch Property Analysis

Chicagoland Market Foreclosure Transactions & 2014 Comparison (No Cook) Region YTD 2013 YTD 2014 Numeric Change Percent Change Will County 2,301 2,092 -209 -9.1% Lake County 1,334 1,006 -328 -24.6% DuPage County 1,319 686 -633 -48.0% Kane County 1,165 666 -499 -42.8% Lake, IN County 659 536 -123 -18.7% Winnebago County 677 180 -497 -73.4% McHenry County 664 305 -359 -54.1% Kendall County 322 191 -131 -40.7% DeKalb County 119 96 -23 -19.3% Grundy County 13 14 1 7.7% TOTALS 8,573 5,772 -2,801 -32.7% 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metroearch Property Analysis

Metrostudy Residential Survey

Chicago Market 2,733 Total Subdivisions 1,498 Active Subdivisions
,,000,00, 2,733 Total Subdivisions 1,498 Active Subdivisions 1,235 Future Subdivisions 307 Furnished Model Homes 225,000 1610,7, 5,000 200,000 112,5,00000 15705,0,00000 4,000 11150,02,0, 40,000 121385,00,0, 30,000 100,000 67,05000 2,000 2705,0,00000 45,00000 50,000 110,0,00000 2252,0, 000 2122QQQQ 1,065 Finished & Vacant Homes 2,801 Homes Under Construction 48,969 Vacant Developed Lots 238,321 Future Lots 2222QQQQ 2222QQQQ 2222QQQQ 2222QQQQ 2222QQQQ 12-Counties & 24 Field Research Personnel 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy

“Active” Subdivisions (VDL Inventory)
2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy

151 Subdivisions >12 Starts Past Year

Chicagoland Market Annual New Home Starts & Closings - 12-Month Moving Total 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 Annual Starts Annual Closings 15,000 10,000 5,000 2q94 2q96 2q98 2q00 2q02 2q04 2q06 2q08 2q10 2q12 2q14 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy

Chicagoland Market Annual New Home Starts & Closings - 12-Month Moving Total 6,000 5,500 Annual Starts Annual Closings 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 2q10 4q10 2q11 4q11 2q12 4q12 2q13 4q13 2q14 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy

Chicagoland Market Year to Date New Home Starts - 2q13 & 2q14 by County 600 550 530 500 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 447 450 439 400 395 374 350 340 321 300 245 250 226 200 185 173 170 164 150 150 142 129 100 50 29 27 25 14 18 11 7 6 ne Will Cook Ka Lake,IN DuPage Lake,IL Kendall DeKalb Grundy Boone McHenry Winnebago 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy

Housing Inventory

Chicagoland Market Finished Vacant Inventory & Months Supply 2Q14
6,000 6.0 Finished Inventory Month’s Supply 5,000 5.0 4,000 4.0 3,000 3.0 2,000 2.0 1,000 1.0 0.0 2q04 2q05 2q06 2q07 2q08 2q09 2q10 2q11 2q12 2q13 2q14 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy

Chicagoland Market Finished Vacant Inventory - 2q13 & 2q14 Comparison by County 300 250 236 2q13 FIN 2q14 FIN 198 200 192 184 150 125 100 86 86 52 50 47 43 42 45 35 31 19 19 20 15 12 6 Will Cook Kane Kalb Kendall Lake,IL Boone Lake,IN DuPage Grundy McHenry Winnebago De 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy

Chicagoland Market Under Construction Inventory - 2q13 & 2q14 Comparison by County 600 500 400 300 525 439 485 2q13 U/C 2q14 U/C 383 369 351 253 235 199 130 116 64 65 200 187 100 Will Kane Cook Kalb Boone Lake,IN DuPage Lake,IL Kendall Grundy McHenry Winnebago De 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy

181 Subdivisions with a Furnished Model

Lot Inventory

Chicagoland Market Annual New Home Starts & Lot Inventory - Annual Trend 70,000 300 Starts Lots Months Supply 60,000 250 50,000 200 40,000 150 30,000 100 20,000 50 10,000 2q04 2q05 2q06 2q07 2q08 2q09 2q10 2q11 2q12 2q13 2q14 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy

Chicagoland Market New Lot Deliveries - Lot Deliveries by Year 2Q14
40,000 37,255 35,175 35,000 32,178 30,905 30,000 28, ,478 25,000 23,099 21,016 20,000 15,000 10,000 7,773 5,000 1,488 1,472 763 1,073 383 563 q14 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy

Chicagoland Market Vacant Develop Lot Inventory - 2q13 & 2q14 Comparison by County 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,647 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 11,968 1 1,442 2q13 Lot Inventory 2q14 Lot Inventory 6,031 6,035 5,447 5,626 4,349 4,190 3,987 3,754 3,138 3,268 3,081 2,946 2,517 2,515 2,072 2,048 1,624 1,570 5,828 ne Will Cook Kendall Ka Lake,IN La e,IL DeKalb Boone Grundy McHenry k DuPage Winnebago 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy

Chicagoland Market Vacant Develop Lot Inventory - Months of Supply by County 1,554 1,024 1, , 500 450 443 410 400 2q13 Supply 2q14 Supply 350 308 300 250 235 200 200 188 167 150 126 100 100 90 90 84 68 71 65 59 50 41 26 o Kalb Will Boone Cook Kane Grundy McHenry Kendall Lake,IL Lake,IN DuPage Winnebag De 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy

Chicagoland Market Dormant Subdivisions - Vacant Developed Lot Status
Share Comments 48,969 100% Includes lots for both attached and detached housing. 35,701 73% Number of lots on the ground for single-family detached homes. 13,268 27% Number of lots on the ground for townhomes and duplex units. 30,044 61% Lots in communities with no starts activity during the past twelve months. 19,325 39% Lots in single-family detached communities with no activity. 10,719 22% Lots in attached product communities with no activity. 2,792 6% Lots in Cook County with no activity (95 subdivisions). 2,081 4% Lots in Kane County with no activity (62 subdivisions). 6,251 13% Lots in Will County with no activity (157 subdivisions). 5,495 11% Lots in the hands of the BIG builders. 43,474 89% Lots NOT in the hands of the BIG builders. 1,701 3% Lots in Joliet with no activity (31 subdivisions) 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy

369 Subs with 25 Lots & No Starts

Chicagoland Market Communities with No Activity - Ranked by Lot Inventory Remaining City/Village No. of Subdivisions Lots Annual Resales Median Price Ann Foreclosure Joliet 30 1,701 764 $125,000 1,557 Yorkville 27 1,465 204 $225,000 158 Rockford 36 1,080 1,077 $96,807 246 Manhattan 10 997 263 $200,000 62 Chicago 839 6,022 $210,000 1,252 Channahon 15 827 79 $190,000 58 Plainfield 16 817 963 $203,000 870 Oswego 7 654 348 115 Woodstock 585 232 $167,000 Caledonia 2 580 40 $210,550 5 Frankfort 568 395 $289,000 221 Belvidere 12 497 $123,500 100 Beecher 14 489 44 $147,500 95 Matteson 9 483 42 Loves Park 476 150 $132,000 72 McHenry 464 478 $158,000 181 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy

Chicagoland Market Municipality Ranking - Ranked by Annual New Home Starts City/Village Ann Starts Ann Closings INV Mo. Supply VDL Elgin 322 264 225 10.2 1,544 57.5 Naperville 315 255 245 11.5 743 28.3 St. John, IN 222 211 153 8.7 764 41.3 Crown Point, IN 183 188 118 7.5 657 43.1 Chicago 180 131 228 20.9 1,050 70.0 Huntley 169 156 104 8.0 797 56.6 New Lenox 167 142 122 10.3 785 56.4 Oswego 163 135 115 1,258 92.6 Pingree Grove 155 185 151 9.8 570 44.1 Plainfield 140 113 12.0 1,468 125.8 Aurora 137 150 87 7.0 667 58.4 Hampshire 111 100 10.8 533 54.2 Bolingbrook 106 103 56 6.5 252 28.5 Winfield, IN 96 95 59 249 31.1 Joliet 93 77 66 2,206 284.6 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy

Chicagoland Market Community Ranking - Communities Ranked by Annual Starts Communities (Ann Starts) Cambridge Lakes (155) Talamore (141) 8 3. Lakewood Crossing (113) 2 3 4. Carillon Club/Naperville (110) 1 9 7 5. Bowes Creek (76) 5 Mill Creek (64) 6 Edgewater of Elgin (63) 8. Grand Dominion (60) 10 4 Highland Woods (60) River Hills (59) 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy

Chicagoland Market Builder Ranking - Top Home Builders by 2014 Metrostudy Closings Builder Name 1q14 2q14 3q14 4q14 Total Closings Ryland Homes 70 159 - 229 D.R. Horton 67 112 179 M/I Homes 58 71 129 Pulte 66 56 122 K. Hovnanian Homes 46 60 106 Orleans Homebuilders 18 37 55 Lexington Homes 23 27 50 William Ryan Homes 22 44 Hartz Construction 13 40 Olthof Homes 20 19 39 Ryan Homes 17 36 Toll Brothers 9 Phillippe Builders 12 21 Sho-Deen Homes 7 BnA Homes 5 14 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy

Chicagoland Market Chicagoland Region - Median Sales Price, New vs. Resale 320,000 300,000 280,000 260,000 240,000 Resale New 220,000 200,000 180,000 160,000 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy Analytics

Conclusions Concern over demographics, incomes & job growth Still a large gap between used & new home prices Housing inventory levels are low New lot development beginning to occur again Prices continue their upward trend More builders getting into the fray (much needed) More subdivisions beginning to show signs of life Maybe we just need be happier… 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014

Thank You Chris Huecksteadt

Chicago Executive Briefing

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