1. MODELING AND OPTIMIZATION OF MULTI-AGENT SITUATION ANALYSIS’ PROCEDURES IN DECISION-MAKING
Navitskaya Katsiaryna , PhD Student of Yanka Kupala State University of Grodno, The faculty of economics and management
Situational analysis
Theory
-used in making strategic business and government decisions in normal and abnormal conditions.
a complex of management tool that includes the identification and assessment of possible changes in the enterprise’s working.
the influence of the present external and internal factors, the possible risks and anticipate developments.
To current situation’s transformation on the basis of development’s prediction and possible risks.
Multi-agents systems
Reasons
• large number of criteria and restrictions;
• uncertainty of results;
• the necessity of taking into account occurring events;
• experts’ adequacy within limited area.
Regional governance
region is seen as an independent system with its own resources and goal to increase the life’s quality of the local population
region is considered as a subsystem of the state
includes departments and agencies with dual subordination to the ministry and to the local executive committee
Rezults
• Speed-up process;
• High efficienty of procedure;
• Economy of resources (labor, material, computer, etc.).
• Agent 1 works with databases of statistical control.
• Agent 2 is responsible of the Bank of situations, determines the degree of non-standard problem situations, finds out solutions of problem on past experience.
• Agent 3 analyzes the data, determines main factors, works out scenarios. There can be some several agents. Each of them can use different methods of data analysis and prediction.
• Agent 4 selects the optimum scenario taking into account the limitations by national programs of development, available resources and potential.
• Agent 5 assesses the coherency of the experts’ (agents’) views.
• Agent 6 is responsible for the security of the entire system.
Rezults
Practice
In theory:
the concept of situational analysis and its place in the system of decision–making;
function model of situational analysis was represented as a with agents and techniques of each step;
In practice:
there is a high degree of differentiation in information society level of regions of Belarus;
only ICT sector’s work impact to GRP;
It’s necessary to increase ICT costs (now it’s less then 3% of GRP).
In future: to develop a prototype of multi-agent decision-support system for region management
The information society is a model of post-industrial society with a dominant role played by knowledge and information, and the widespread usage of information and communication technologies (ICT). The purpose of the information society is not to increase using of computer technology but to create the conditions for improving the life quality of citizens and sustainable socio-economic, political and cultural development of the country.
We use the official data of 16 indicators of the information society development in the Republic of Belarus in We have data for each region and the Minsk city. Since the values of most indicators for Minsk are higher than those in other regions, we feel that it is appropriate to exclude Minsk from the analysis.
The results are based on usage of mathematical methods, including factor analysis, cluster analysis, the fuzzy theory and others.