1. Transportation System Vulnerability in Ohio
This presentation takes a long view of a very big topic:
Matt Perlik
How do State DOT’s consider Vulnerability of assets to extreme weather events?
This is not a new concern, but techniques to measure vulnerability are not well established.
International Conference
on Ecology and Transportation
May 15, 2017

2. Overview – Ohio DOT Infrastructure Resiliency Plan
Motivation
Related Initiatives
Climate Effects Expected in Ohio
Special Topics
Determining Asset Vulnerability
Recommendations
Ohio River Basin Climate Change Study

3. Motivation for the Resiliency Plan
To conduct systems-level vulnerability and risk assessment of the ODOT’s infrastructure that will likely be impacted by climate change effects. Time frame – 2100.
>20 State-Level Resiliency Studies in US
Long Time Frame--2100

4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Climate Projections
Each scenario represents a variety of interactions between population growth, economic development, adoption of new technologies, and land use. To this end, four emission scenarios have been established,

5. Likely Climate Change Effects
From: TRB Special Report 290
Increases in very hot days and heat waves – very likely (>90%)
Rising sea levels – virtually certain (>99%)
Increases in Arctic temperature – virtually certain (>99%)
Increases in intense precipitation events – very likely (>90%)
Increases in hurricane intensity -- likely (>66%)

6. Projected Changes in Ohio Climate – US Army Corps of Engineers (ORBCC)

7. Impacts of Warmer Temps – Some “+”s and “–”s
Warmer Winters =
reductions in snow and ice removal costs;
reduced environmental impacts from the use of salt and chemicals on roads and bridges;
extended construction season;
improved mobility and safety of passenger and freight travel through reduced winter hazards.
Hotter Summers =
Limit on construction activities and the hours road crews can work due to health and safety concerns for highway workers.
Load restrictions on roads.
Pavement damage and buckling will disrupt vehicle movements.
Extreme heat could disrupt vehicle operations because of overheating and increased risk of tire blowouts in heavily loaded vehicles.

8. Vulnerability Assessment
The vulnerability score is a weighted average of three component sub-scores: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.
exposure is the level of a climate change stressor that an asset will experience
sensitivity is how severely an asset will be damaged by a climate stressor
adaptive capacity is the ability of the system to cope with damage to an asset
Like the vulnerability score, each of the three sub-scores is a number between 1 and 4.

9. Precipitation Projections for the Midwest, Relative to , National Climate Assessment
Most recent NCA in US Global Change Research Program
Many independent lines of evidence demonstrate that the world is warming and that human activity is the primary cause. Other changes flow from this warming, including melting of snow and ice, rising sea level, and increases in some types of extreme weather, such as extreme heat and heavy downpours.

10. Projected Climate Effect – Increasing Variability of Precipitation & Stream Flows
Hotter temps, strong hot high pressure systems which hold in place for extended periods.
Violent release of atmospheric H20 resulting in more frequent heavy storm events.

11. FHWA Vulnerability Model - Three Components
The vulnerability score is a weighted average of three component sub-scores: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.
exposure is the level of a climate change stressor that an asset will experience
sensitivity is how severely an asset will be damaged by a climate stressor
adaptive capacity is the ability of the system to cope with damage to an asset
Like the vulnerability score, each of the three sub-scores is a number between 1 and 4.

12. Vulnerability to Flooding – Bridges and Culverts
We are using five indicators: age, scour rating, detour length change in maximum precipitation, and change in maximum stream flow
Age and scour rating are used as indicators for sensitivity.
Detour length is used as an indicator for adaptive capacity
Change in precipitation and stream flow are used as indicators of exposure.
The Sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators come from the National Bridge Inventory and the Ohio State Bridge Inventory
Age and Detour length come from the NBI
Scour rating comes from the Ohio bridge inventory, which is more up-to-date than the NBI
The exposure indicators (precipitation and stream flow) come from long-term predictions by the NOAA/NWA Ohio River Forecast Center as part of the Ohio River Basin Climate Change Project.
The exposure component has twice the weight of sensitivity and adaptive capacity components, since it is the only component that incorporates estimates for how conditions will change in the future.
Within the exposure component, rainfall has twice the weight of stream flow, since it seems to be a more reliable prediction when extending the estimates to other streams.
Only bridges on state routes, US routes, or interstates were included.
Go to to show results
Results so far ...
Mapping the 100 most vulnerable bridges shows clusters in the northwest and east central. We are not sure yet why there is a strong spatial pattern - we will be looking into this.
Show for examples the 5 most vulnerable bridges. Explain the calculation process over again for each. Comment on the meaning behind the scores
scour rating is 4, which means "action is required to protect exposed foundations"
year built is 1930
year built is 1929
change in precip is 16%
year built is 1933
Still to do:
refine bridge flooding estimates
add more asset type and stressor type combinations

13. 10 Most Vulnerable Bridges from Vulnerability Modeling
We are using five indicators: age, scour rating, detour length change in maximum precipitation, and change in maximum stream flow
Age and scour rating are used as indicators for sensitivity.
Detour length is used as an indicator for adaptive capacity
Change in precipitation and stream flow are used as indicators of exposure.
The Sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators come from the National Bridge Inventory and the Ohio State Bridge Inventory
Age and Detour length come from the NBI
Scour rating comes from the Ohio bridge inventory, which is more up-to-date than the NBI
The exposure indicators (precipitation and stream flow) come from long-term predictions by the NOAA/NWA Ohio River Forecast Center as part of the Ohio River Basin Climate Change Project.
The exposure component has twice the weight of sensitivity and adaptive capacity components, since it is the only component that incorporates estimates for how conditions will change in the future.
Within the exposure component, rainfall has twice the weight of stream flow, since it seems to be a more reliable prediction when extending the estimates to other streams.
Only bridges on state routes, US routes, or interstates were included.
Go to to show results
Results so far ...
Mapping the 100 most vulnerable bridges shows clusters in the northwest and east central. We are not sure yet why there is a strong spatial pattern - we will be looking into this.
Show for examples the 5 most vulnerable bridges. Explain the calculation process over again for each. Comment on the meaning behind the scores
scour rating is 4, which means "action is required to protect exposed foundations"
year built is 1930
year built is 1929
change in precip is 16%
year built is 1933
Still to do:
refine bridge flooding estimates
add more asset type and stressor type combinations

14. Vulnerability to Flooding – Highways
We are using five indicators: age, scour rating, detour length change in maximum precipitation, and change in maximum stream flow
Age and scour rating are used as indicators for sensitivity.
Detour length is used as an indicator for adaptive capacity
Change in precipitation and stream flow are used as indicators of exposure.
The Sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators come from the National Bridge Inventory and the Ohio State Bridge Inventory
Age and Detour length come from the NBI
Scour rating comes from the Ohio bridge inventory, which is more up-to-date than the NBI
The exposure indicators (precipitation and stream flow) come from long-term predictions by the NOAA/NWA Ohio River Forecast Center as part of the Ohio River Basin Climate Change Project.
The exposure component has twice the weight of sensitivity and adaptive capacity components, since it is the only component that incorporates estimates for how conditions will change in the future.
Within the exposure component, rainfall has twice the weight of stream flow, since it seems to be a more reliable prediction when extending the estimates to other streams.
Only bridges on state routes, US routes, or interstates were included.
Go to to show results
Results so far ...
Mapping the 100 most vulnerable bridges shows clusters in the northwest and east central. We are not sure yet why there is a strong spatial pattern - we will be looking into this.
Show for examples the 5 most vulnerable bridges. Explain the calculation process over again for each. Comment on the meaning behind the scores
scour rating is 4, which means "action is required to protect exposed foundations"
year built is 1930
year built is 1929
change in precip is 16%
year built is 1933
Still to do:
refine bridge flooding estimates
add more asset type and stressor type combinations

15. Most Vulnerable Highway Segments
We are using five indicators: age, scour rating, detour length change in maximum precipitation, and change in maximum stream flow
Age and scour rating are used as indicators for sensitivity.
Detour length is used as an indicator for adaptive capacity
Change in precipitation and stream flow are used as indicators of exposure.
The Sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators come from the National Bridge Inventory and the Ohio State Bridge Inventory
Age and Detour length come from the NBI
Scour rating comes from the Ohio bridge inventory, which is more up-to-date than the NBI
The exposure indicators (precipitation and stream flow) come from long-term predictions by the NOAA/NWA Ohio River Forecast Center as part of the Ohio River Basin Climate Change Project.
The exposure component has twice the weight of sensitivity and adaptive capacity components, since it is the only component that incorporates estimates for how conditions will change in the future.
Within the exposure component, rainfall has twice the weight of stream flow, since it seems to be a more reliable prediction when extending the estimates to other streams.
Only bridges on state routes, US routes, or interstates were included.
Go to to show results
Results so far ...
Mapping the 100 most vulnerable bridges shows clusters in the northwest and east central. We are not sure yet why there is a strong spatial pattern - we will be looking into this.
Show for examples the 5 most vulnerable bridges. Explain the calculation process over again for each. Comment on the meaning behind the scores
scour rating is 4, which means "action is required to protect exposed foundations"
year built is 1930
year built is 1929
change in precip is 16%
year built is 1933
Still to do:
refine bridge flooding estimates
add more asset type and stressor type combinations

16. Most Vulnerable Highway Segments
We are using five indicators: age, scour rating, detour length change in maximum precipitation, and change in maximum stream flow
Age and scour rating are used as indicators for sensitivity.
Detour length is used as an indicator for adaptive capacity
Change in precipitation and stream flow are used as indicators of exposure.
The Sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators come from the National Bridge Inventory and the Ohio State Bridge Inventory
Age and Detour length come from the NBI
Scour rating comes from the Ohio bridge inventory, which is more up-to-date than the NBI
The exposure indicators (precipitation and stream flow) come from long-term predictions by the NOAA/NWA Ohio River Forecast Center as part of the Ohio River Basin Climate Change Project.
The exposure component has twice the weight of sensitivity and adaptive capacity components, since it is the only component that incorporates estimates for how conditions will change in the future.
Within the exposure component, rainfall has twice the weight of stream flow, since it seems to be a more reliable prediction when extending the estimates to other streams.
Only bridges on state routes, US routes, or interstates were included.
Go to to show results
Results so far ...
Mapping the 100 most vulnerable bridges shows clusters in the northwest and east central. We are not sure yet why there is a strong spatial pattern - we will be looking into this.
Show for examples the 5 most vulnerable bridges. Explain the calculation process over again for each. Comment on the meaning behind the scores
scour rating is 4, which means "action is required to protect exposed foundations"
year built is 1930
year built is 1929
change in precip is 16%
year built is 1933
Still to do:
refine bridge flooding estimates
add more asset type and stressor type combinations

17. Ohio DOT Emergency Response Impacts on Air Quality
Special Topics
Ohio DOT Emergency Response
Impacts on Air Quality
Lake Erie Water Levels
Impacts of Extreme Heat on Pavements
Potential Opening of the Northwest Passage
ODOT seems relatively well equipped and prepared to respond to the threats posed by extreme weather as they might affect the ODOT system.”
1. Follow-up with districts which expressed a potential for improvement in each of the topic areas surveyed, in order to understand what can and should be done in light of this information.
2. Implementation of formal “after action” reviews as an essential component of the Incident Command Structure (ICS).
Ohio currently has 3 Ozone Non-Attainment Areas:
Cincinnati-Hamilton
Cleveland-Akron-Lorain
Columbus
Anticipated tightening of Ozone standard to 70ppm.
Likely increase in the degree and extent of Non-Attainment.

18. Special Topic: Impacts to Pavements – Key Findings
Pavement modeling generally suggests pavement impacts will be minimal and that there are many ways to adapt pavements to climate change effects, if necessary.
ODOT-maintained highways are not typically constructed on expandable clay soils within the pavement structure profile.
However, secondary roads maintained by counties or other jurisdictions may be vulnerable to projected drought-inundation cycles due to lower design standards.

19. Special Topic: “Northwest Passage”

20. Recommendations
Designate a specialist within ODOT to manage a divisional cross-cutting effort to focus on vulnerability to climate change impacts to core infrastructure
Ongoing refinement of VAST model for the 3 asset types (highways, bridges, culverts):
Interagency Coordination:
ODOT Emergency Operations, Asset Management
Develop advisory team of ODOT and extra-ODOT, including climate scientists from USGS/NWS.
Responses:
Operations
Regulatory, Public Outreach
Design Standards
Retrofitting
Annual Tasks of the Resiliency Lead (selected items):
Issues, data collection and analysis that need to be monitored on an ongoing basis, as part of input to ODOT’s transportation planning function.
What climate stressors will affect the proposed facility either directly or through effects on the surrounding ecology?
Integration of Vulnerability Assessment into Project Scoping/Design

21. Project Contacts
Matt Perlik, ODOT Office of Environmental Service,
Noel Alcala, ODOT Office of Environmental Services,
Robert Chamberlin, RSG,
We are using five indicators: age, scour rating, detour length change in maximum precipitation, and change in maximum stream flow
Age and scour rating are used as indicators for sensitivity.
Detour length is used as an indicator for adaptive capacity
Change in precipitation and stream flow are used as indicators of exposure.
The Sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators come from the National Bridge Inventory and the Ohio State Bridge Inventory
Age and Detour length come from the NBI
Scour rating comes from the Ohio bridge inventory, which is more up-to-date than the NBI
The exposure indicators (precipitation and stream flow) come from long-term predictions by the NOAA/NWA Ohio River Forecast Center as part of the Ohio River Basin Climate Change Project.
The exposure component has twice the weight of sensitivity and adaptive capacity components, since it is the only component that incorporates estimates for how conditions will change in the future.
Within the exposure component, rainfall has twice the weight of stream flow, since it seems to be a more reliable prediction when extending the estimates to other streams.
Only bridges on state routes, US routes, or interstates were included.
Go to to show results
Results so far ...
Mapping the 100 most vulnerable bridges shows clusters in the northwest and east central. We are not sure yet why there is a strong spatial pattern - we will be looking into this.
Show for examples the 5 most vulnerable bridges. Explain the calculation process over again for each. Comment on the meaning behind the scores
scour rating is 4, which means "action is required to protect exposed foundations"
year built is 1930
year built is 1929
change in precip is 16%
year built is 1933
Still to do:
refine bridge flooding estimates
add more asset type and stressor type combinations

22. Related Initiatives in Ohio
Ohio River Basin Climate Change Project
US Army Corps of Engineers, NOAA/NWS, USGS, EPA
Sustaining Scioto-Columbus, OH region, focus on water supply and quality
>20 Similar Efforts by Other State DOTs

23. We are using five indicators: age, scour rating, detour length change in maximum precipitation, and change in maximum stream flow
Age and scour rating are used as indicators for sensitivity.
Detour length is used as an indicator for adaptive capacity
Change in precipitation and stream flow are used as indicators of exposure.
The Sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators come from the National Bridge Inventory and the Ohio State Bridge Inventory
Age and Detour length come from the NBI
Scour rating comes from the Ohio bridge inventory, which is more up-to-date than the NBI
The exposure indicators (precipitation and stream flow) come from long-term predictions by the NOAA/NWA Ohio River Forecast Center as part of the Ohio River Basin Climate Change Project.
The exposure component has twice the weight of sensitivity and adaptive capacity components, since it is the only component that incorporates estimates for how conditions will change in the future.
Within the exposure component, rainfall has twice the weight of stream flow, since it seems to be a more reliable prediction when extending the estimates to other streams.
Only bridges on state routes, US routes, or interstates were included.
Go to to show results
Results so far ...
Mapping the 100 most vulnerable bridges shows clusters in the northwest and east central. We are not sure yet why there is a strong spatial pattern - we will be looking into this.
Show for examples the 5 most vulnerable bridges. Explain the calculation process over again for each. Comment on the meaning behind the scores
scour rating is 4, which means "action is required to protect exposed foundations"
year built is 1930
year built is 1929
change in precip is 16%
year built is 1933
Still to do:
refine bridge flooding estimates
add more asset type and stressor type combinations

24. Recommendations
Develop Strategies for Protecting the Function of Identified Vulnerable Assets
Planning
Environmental Analysis
Design Standards
Infrastructure Retrofit/Maintenance
Operations
Public Outreach/Communications
We are using five indicators: age, scour rating, detour length change in maximum precipitation, and change in maximum stream flow
Age and scour rating are used as indicators for sensitivity.
Detour length is used as an indicator for adaptive capacity
Change in precipitation and stream flow are used as indicators of exposure.
The Sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators come from the National Bridge Inventory and the Ohio State Bridge Inventory
Age and Detour length come from the NBI
Scour rating comes from the Ohio bridge inventory, which is more up-to-date than the NBI
The exposure indicators (precipitation and stream flow) come from long-term predictions by the NOAA/NWA Ohio River Forecast Center as part of the Ohio River Basin Climate Change Project.
The exposure component has twice the weight of sensitivity and adaptive capacity components, since it is the only component that incorporates estimates for how conditions will change in the future.
Within the exposure component, rainfall has twice the weight of stream flow, since it seems to be a more reliable prediction when extending the estimates to other streams.
Only bridges on state routes, US routes, or interstates were included.
Initial refinement of scales and weights in VAST model based on input from Districts.
Annual inspection visit to the top ranked vulnerable assets in each asset class. Revise VAST model as necessary to conform to best data/knowledge from USGS and from field inspections.
Update list of critical facilities.
Go to to show results
Results so far ...
Mapping the 100 most vulnerable bridges shows clusters in the northwest and east central. We are not sure yet why there is a strong spatial pattern - we will be looking into this.
Show for examples the 5 most vulnerable bridges. Explain the calculation process over again for each. Comment on the meaning behind the scores
scour rating is 4, which means "action is required to protect exposed foundations"
year built is 1930
year built is 1929
change in precip is 16%
year built is 1933
Still to do:
refine bridge flooding estimates
add more asset type and stressor type combinations

25. Review of ODOT Emergency Response
“ODOT seems relatively well equipped and prepared to respond to the threats posed by extreme weather as they might affect the ODOT system.”
1. Follow-up with districts which expressed a potential for improvement in each of the topic areas surveyed, in order to understand what can and should be done in light of this information.
2. Implementation of formal “after action” reviews as an essential component of the Incident Command Structure (ICS).

26. Special Topic #2” Impacts to Air Quality
Ohio currently has 3 Ozone Non-Attainment Areas:
Cincinnati-Hamilton
Cleveland-Akron-Lorain
Columbus
Anticipated tightening of Ozone standard to 70ppm.
Likely increase in the degree and extent of Non-Attainment.

27. Special Topic #3” Lake Erie Water Levels

28. Special Topic #4” Northwest Passage