1. (D)Evolution of the Livestock Industry in Jamaica
The Road to Sustainable Development Shunned
P.G. Jennings
MARJEN Consulting Group
Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica,
May 30, 2013

2. Main Premises
At more than 40% of the value of domestic food production, Livestock Development remains a significant component of Jamaica’s agricultural economy;
Actualization of the potential contribution of the sector to national development has been severely abridged by enigmatic public policy choices characterized largely by state withdrawal since 1992;
The alternative path of state activism chosen contemporaneously by the Dom. Rep. and the contrasting results, suggest the need for a revamping of domestic policy to maximally exploit available animal genetic, land and knowledge resources.
Untapped domestic capital resources are available.

3. Fig. 1 Jamaica's External Trade 1990- 2012 (US$'000)
1. Appreciation needed by the populace of the direct causal relationship between the trade deficit and the fiscal deficit.

4. Table 1. Value (US$M) of Food and Fuel Imports 2008-2012
Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
(Jan-Nov)
Total Imports (A)
8162.9
5057.6
5536.4
6614.8
6151.2
Food (B)
885.08
801.87
812.92
938.40
873.0
Animal & Veg. Oils (C)
53.95
33.86
32.64
58.60
50.65
[(B + C)/A] - Food
0.115
0.165
0.153
0.151
0.150
Mineral Fuels (D)
2313.9
D/A - Fuel
0.386
0.281
0.305
0.369
0.376
(B+C+D)/A
0.501
0.446
0.458
0.520
0.526
Food imports (2011) = 15% total imports
2. Livestock imports 2011 – US$245.5M equivalent to 24.6% of food imports

5. Profile of Jamaican Agriculture
Land Allocated ,810ha*
Active Farmland ,727
Crops ,524
Pasture - 48,203
Export Crops ,554
Domestic Food Crops - 86,402
No. Farms ,683
Source: STATIN,Census of Agriculture 2007: Preliminary Rep

6. Table 2. Volume and Value of Pimary Food Production in Jamaica - 2012
Food Type
Area Reaped
(ha)1
Volume
(MT)
Nominal Value at
Farm gate – J$M
Legumes
4,378
5,261
1,110.8
Vegetables
14,324
224,131
19,376.2
Condiments
3,779
46,854
7,816.2
Fruits
2,532
45,023
4,137.9
Starches
18,842
287,657
26,528.9
Miscellaneous
750
1,213
202.2
Total Food Crops
44,606
610,138
59,172.1
Livestock
55,0742
154,8443
41,086.6
Grand Total
99,680
764,982
100,258.7
Sources: 1. MAF Data Bank; 2. Census of Agriculture 2007, STATIN; 3. Includes 2011 fish data (2012 –n.a.)

7. Table 3. Livestock Production 2012 vs.1992 (Metric Tons)
2012/1992
Beef
18,201
5,800
0.32
Pork
5,930
9,490
1.60
Goats/Sheep
640
1,126
1.76
Poultry Meat
52,470
102,167
1.95
Fish
10,260
15,3081
1.49
Milk
38,800
12,800
0.33
Eggs (Units)
114.2 M
170.2M
Total (tons)
131,739
154,796
1.175
Per capita contribution (kg)2
54.36
57.1 -
data; 2. Population: 2.423M (1992); (2012)
PSE to poultry sector averaged J$14.1 billion between – 79 % of total PSE to agriculture (IDB/FAO, 2011). These effectively represent transfers from the consumer by way of 270% tariff on imported poultry meat.
Contrastingly duty waivers to agricultural imports totalled J$2.03 billion between Jan 2010 and March Waivers to beef (Jan – March 2011) – $712 million – 60% of 2011 waivers
Population: 1992 – M; 2012 – 2.711M

8. Table 4. Imports of Livestock Products (MT) - 1992 vs. 2011
2011/1992
2011 Value –(US$’000)
Beef
9,061
36,902
4.07
39,142
Pork
1,449
3,282
2.27
9,806
Goats/Sheep
933
3,384
3.63
17,350
Poultry Meat
27,200
41,339
1.52
34,100
Fish
12,549
27,215
2.17
104,165
Dairy
10,877
12,113
1.11
50,846
Total
62,069
124,235
2.00
255,409

9. Fig. 2. Levels of Self-Sufficiency: 2011 vs. 1992
Courtesy of Dr. Tanika O’Connor-Dennie

10. Table 6. Livestock: Indicative Self Sufficiency Rates – 2011 vs. 1992
Product
1992
2011
Consumption
(MT)
Self-sufficiency
(%)
Beef
27,271
66.8
42,523
13.2
Pork
7379
80.4
10,392
68.4
Goats/Sheep
1573
40.7
4,723
28.3
Poultry Meat
79,760
65.9
142,865
71.1
Fish
12,549
45.0
36.0
Eggs1
5,438
(100)
6,550
100
Milk2
125,816
31.0
95,952
13.0
Total
269,960
48.8
345,529
43.4
Standard Eggs = 1kg (whole liquid egg)
2. Fluid equivalents
2012 Import data unavailable.

11. Impact of Public Policy on Differential Performance of Cattle and Poultry Sectors
Poultry Sector: accounted for 79% Producer Support Equivalents (implicit subsidies) to domestic agriculture (IDB/FAO, 2011).
Average PSE (poultry sector) – J$14.1 billion p.a. – represents effectively transfers from consumer to producer through 270% tariff on imports.
Equivalent to 34% of farm gate value of total domestic production of livestock.
Beef: Duty waivers on beef imports (Feb – March 2011) – J$712 million or 60% of total agricultural waivers for calendar 2011 (Jennings et al 2013).
Dairy: A waiver of duty on imported SMP for direct consumption has remained in effect since 1991.
1. The policies present an enigmatic approach to food security given the near total dependence of the poultry sector on imported inputs vis-à-vis the innate ability of ruminant livestock to achieve commercially acceptable levels of output on indigenous feed sources.
Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica

12. Table 7. Comparative Impact of Tariff Regime Change: Ja. vs. B’dos
Jamaica
Barbados
Self-Sufficiency
Rate
Tariff
Rate since 1995
Change Self-
Sufficiency
2012(%)
Rate
Rate
Since 1995
2012(%)2
Beef
66.8 40
-80.2
42.2 30
-82.9
Dairy
31.0
40-50
-58.1
79.7
141
-12.0
Poultry Meat
65.9
270
+7.9
87.8
184
+1.7
Pork
80.4
-14.9
69.0
-27.5
Sheep & Goat
40.7
-30.5
3.2
+115.6
Thomas, G. & M. Hunte (2005) Barbados: Country Report on the State of Animal Genetic Resources , MARD
Lucas, C. (2013) Status of the Livestock Industry in Barbados, FAO/CARDI Livestock Conf., Kgn
B’dos apparently applied some logic to selection of commodities for protection related to level of self-sufficiency upon accession to WTO in 1995.
This provided some cushioning for dairy, poultry and pork
Application of the CET to all except poultry in Jamaica – predictable negative impact on beef, dairy and small ruminants.
Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica

13. Table 8. What if ? - Implied Domestic Livestock Production in 2012 at 1992 Self Sufficiency Rates
Consumed – 2011
(MT)
Self – Suff.
1992
Output 2012
Diff
Farm Gate
Value
Diff. (J$M)
Actual
What if?
Beef
42,523
66.8
5,800
28,405
-22,605
-7,957
Pork
10,392
80.4
9,490
8,355
+1,135
+308.7
Small Rum.
4,723
40.7
1,126
1,922
-796
-310.4
Poultry
142,865
65.9
102,167
94,148
+8,019
+2,005
Fish
45.0
15,308
19,135
-3827
-2,026
Eggs
6,550
100
8,104
+1,554
+543.9
Milk
95,952
31.0
12,850
29,745
-16,895
-1,047
Total
345,529
48.8
154,845
188,260
-33,415
-8,483
What if = 1.26 X actual
FX equivalent (April 2013) or foregone Farm Gate Revenue = US$85M
At value-added multiplier of 3:1 foregone GPD = US$340M

14. Table 9. Indicative Per Capita Consumption of Livestock Products - 2011
Protein
Content
(%)
Consumption
Total
(MT)
Per capita1
(Kg/Yr)
Protein per Capita
(grams/day)
Local
Beef 21
42,523
15.7
9.03
1.19
Pork
10,392
3.84
2.21
1.51
Goats/Sheep
4,723
1.75
1.00
0.28
Poultry Meat
142,865
52.8
30.4
21.61
Fish 19
8.17
2.94
Eggs 13
6,550
2.42
0.86
Dairy 3
95,952
35.5
2.92
0.38 -
345,529
127.7
50.192
28.77
1. Average Jamaican population ,706,452, STATIN; 2. RDA – Adult male 52-56g
57% of animal protein supply from domestic production – high level of vulnerability
Total per capita intake of protein inc. plant animal sources – 77g/day (FAOSTAT, 2009)

15. Table 10. Demographic Changes in the Livestock Industry – 1990 vs. 2012
Sub-
Sector
19901
Current
Total
Popn.
Mature
Females
No.
Farms
Land
Area (ha)
Beef/
Dual
154,978
63,701
22,133
63,320
66,5002
30,100
3,964
26,800
Dairy
22,338
11,780
753
12,4153
6,295 86
5,1942
Sheep
3,141
1,452
200
5,839
7,2554 ?
454
9,924
Goats
193,825
82,157
26,843
482,3454
60,315
Pork
102,5635
12,765
14,611 -
145,0006
21,411
6556
4,9094
Poultry
n/a
6,008,5627
765,9598
19,277
6,810
Sources:
Livestock Census 1990, Min Ag.
Duffus and Jennings 2005 (Available at
Holness, Jasmin (2013) - FAO/CARDI Workshop/Seminar for CARICOM’s Regional Chief Livestock Officers , Kingston, Jamaica, 8-10 April, 2013
STATIN 2007 Census of Agriculture. Prelim.
MinAg 1988 Pig Survey
Hamilton and Associates (2012)
Broilers; 8. Layers
Goats - At 1990 ratio of mature does to total herd; current no. breeding does is estimated at 204,514
Even at 1992 indicative productivity levels, current output should exceed 1.56 million kg cf
This suggests a 28% decline in productivity which is inconsistent with the observed impact of the influx of exotic breeds on growth and carcass characteristics.
W.r.t cattle the decline of 39,086 head of breeding females represents an invaluable loss of animal genetic resources.
Among the beef herd, app 14% of animals were classified as purebred cattle of the three Jamaican beef cattle breeds (Duffus and Jennings, 2005).
W.r.t dairy 85.5% of animals were of Jamaica Hope ancestry
W.r.t employment levels, 2005 study (Duffus and Jennings) reported a loss of 13,800 jobs as a result of the attrition in the cattle sector between 1990 and 2004.
Wealth depletion as a result of herd liquidation (Logan 2004) – 3 easternmost parishes + US$14million.

16. Table 11. Quantifiable Socio-Economic Impact of Attrition in Cattle Sector
Parameter
Impact
Source
Breeding Females: (1992 – 2004)
-36,027
Duffus & Jennings (2005)
Beef
-33,129 “
Dairy
-2,898
Estimated replacement value
@ current prices($90K)
J$3.243B
No. Farms
-16669(B); -529 (D)
No. Hired Hands
-13,800
Wealth Stock 1 ( )
-US$14M
Logan (2004)
Contribution to per capita consumption animal protein
16.0 – 3.3%
(1992 – 2011
Jennings et al. (2013)
1. Small cattle farmers in the three easternmost parishes – Average cattle inventories reduced from 5 to 2.

17. Table 12. Resource Requirements for Foregone Domestic Production
Output
Deficit
(MT)
Investment
Cost
(US$’M)
Breeding
Females
Req.
Land
Required
(ha)
Labour
(Man Years)
Import
Cost 2011
(US$’M))
Beef
22,605
201.77
89,4351
71,700
1195
39.14
Sheep& Goat
796
2.533
30,170
1810
180
17.35
Fish
3,827
12.38 -
240 80
104.17
Milk
16,895
12.00
7,2402
1420 70
50.85
Total
44,123
228.68
75,170
1525
211.51
Assumptions: 1. Output/cow = 250Kg/yr (160 –weaner; 90 – 20% cull); 2. Culls (20%) = 170kg/cull
Data speaks to opportunity cost
2011 Import Expenditure represents 92.5% of CAPINVEST required for restoring 1992 self-sufficiency rates.
W.r.t fish, realized levels of productivity on medium and large aquaculture units in Jamaica of 16-45t/ ha suggests the need for priority to be given to revitalizing the local aquaculture industry as a cost-effective contributor to domestic protein requirements

18. Fig. 3. The Imperative of Increased Domestic Food Production - Producer Price Indices – USA Source: FAOSTAT

19. Table 13. Technical Feasibility of Accelerated Milk and Beef Production
Year
Beef Herd
Dairy Herd
Total
Slaughter
Beef
Prod
(kg.106)
Milk
Breeding
Females
No.
2009
31,500
22,050
7,500
5,625
27,675
5.82
14.5
2010
35,100
24,580
8,620
6,460
31,040
6.52
16.8
2011
39,300
27,500
9,920
7,440
34,940
7.34
19.5
2012
44,000
30,800
11,400
8,550
39,350
8.26
22.7
2013
49,530
34,500
13,120
9,840
44,340
9.31
26.4
2014
55,250
38,670
15,100
11,325
49,995
10.50
30.4
2020
82,900
58,030
27,100
20,700
78,730
15.80
56.9
Source: JDDB (2009) Medium Term Policy Framework for the Cattle Sector
Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica

20. Table 14. Comparison of Projected 2020 Yields vs
Table 14. Comparison of Projected 2020 Yields vs. Self-Sufficiency Targets
Target Production
Projected Output
Variance
(Projected/Target)
Beef:
Breeding Herd
89,435
82,900
-0.07
Production (kg.106)
22.60
15.80
-0.30
Milk:
7,240
27,100
+2.74
16.91
56.92
+2.37
Assumptions:
Yield – 3600L/cow/yr
Yield L/cow/yr
Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica

21. ‘A Tale of Two Cities’

22. Table 15. ‘A Tale of Two Cities’…contd.
Jamaica
Dominican Republic
1992
2009
Milk Production (L.106)
38.8
13.2
364.5
595.8
% Self-sufficiency
36.0
17.4
63.0
87.5
Beef Production (kg.106)
18.2
5.4
83.0
101.8
%Self Sufficiency
85.9
43.7
100
99.0
Pork Production (kg.106)
5.9
9.0 43 85
86.0
81.8
84.2
Poultry Meat Production (kg.106)
52.5
106.7
122.0
322.8
65.8
78.6
97.3
Total Protein/Capita (g/d)
68.2
76.9
47.5
58.7
Animal protein/ Capita (g/d)2
32.2
38.2
21.4
28.0
Debt: GDP Dec 20121
145.8
45.71
Per Capita Nominal GDP
5541(93)
5763(89)
Source: FAOSTAT
RDA – Adult 46 (F), (M); 3. IMF data
Growth in Per capita supply of animal protein: Ja – 18.6%; Dom Rep – 30.8%
Growth in total per capita protein supply: Ja. – 12.8%; Dom Rep. – 23.6%
D.R. also 100% self-sufficient in rice production.

23. Table 16. Policy and Other Key Differences
Jamaica
Dom. Rep.
Comments
Accession to WTO
1995
Ja. actually liberalized 1991/1992
Tariff Regime
Straight tariffication – 100% bound rate
Tariff Rate Quota – linked to utilization of local products
Ja. may exercise option of switching to TRQ with WTO approval
Food Security Strategy
Implicit import dependence
Food Sovereignty
Right to food
Right to livelihood
State Market Support ?
State procurement via SFP
School Milk program – integral to dairy dev in D.R.
Public Support to Enhanced Competitiveness
Inconsistent and diffused state support to R&D
Consistent, focused state R&D
MEGALECHE (State) & CONALECHE (Stakeholders) dedicated to dairy development
Industry Structure
High level of attrition among small & medium farmers
Small farmer cooperatives very active
Small farmer contributes 40% of output in DR. Milk mainly to cottage cheeses
People
No Problem Mon!
Muy Caliente! Hay problema!

24. Table 17. Economic Contribution of the Agri-Food Sectors – Selected Countries
Country
%GDP
Labour
(%)
Source
Primary Agric
Agri-Food
Sector
United States
(2004)
0.8
8.1
12.0
Azevedo et al (2004)
Canada
1.3
13.0
New Zealand
(2001)
5.2
20.0
10.9
MAF (2003)
Brazil
7.8
26.3
21.0
Azevedo et al (2004
Jamaica (2010)
5.1
9.9
Arias Segura, J.A. (2010)
GDP multiplier – supplier countries – 4.1
GDP multiplier – Jamaica – 1.94

25. Table 18. Contribution of Beef and Dairy Sectors to Primary Agric GDP – 20071.
Country
Primary Agric
Primary Beef and Dairy
Value(US$.106) 2.
%GDP
Value (US$.106)
%Agric GDP
Australia
12,127
2.4
5,331
44.0
Brazil
42,488
5.2
12,707
29.9
India
123,090
16.0
28,360
23.0
New Zealand
4,827
7.7
4,570
94.6
United Kingdom
14,209
0.8
6,771
47.6
United States
123,200
1.1
52,916
43.0
Dom. Rep
2,027
5.9
511
25.2
Jamaica
543
5.3 62
11.4
1.Calculated from FAO Statistical Yearbook 2009
2. Constant 2000 US$

26. Contribution of Beef and Dairy Sectors to Primary Agric GDP – 20071
Contribution of Beef and Dairy Sectors to Primary Agric GDP – …contd.
Divergence between developed and developing countries in contribution of cattle sector to Agric GDP provides a clear ‘index of development’.
For the developed (4) = 57.3%
For the developing (4) = 22.4%
The correlation is by no means spurious as beef and milk consumption are indexed to increasing affluence.

27. Required Strategic Actions
‘Going for Growth’ – Recommended Policy Approaches (From: Jennings et al, 2013)
Policy Objective
Strategic Goals
Required Strategic Actions
Expanded Domestic Food production as Driver of Economic Growth
Sustainable food and nutrition security via import substitution.
Target food crops and livestock – largest contribution to protein and energy nutrition.
Incd. Wealth creation for primary producers.
Implement equitable land-leasing policy
Expanded and sustainable livelihood opportunities
Market expansion via mfg., tourism, School Feeding Prog.,
Mitigate negative impact of trade distorting actions – local & int’l.
Implement TRQ regime for targeted commodities
Rationalization of ‘discretionary waivers’ and redirect revenues to development
Value Chain Development
TRQ to promote incd. Use of local food by food processing and tourism sectors
Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica

28. Recommended Policy Approaches…contd.
Policy Objective
Strategic Goals
Required Strategic Actions
Enhanced International Competitiveness
Matching commodity enterprise to land capability
Deliberate zoning of de novo investments on state lands with irrigation infrastructure
Improved production efficiency
Focused technology generation (R&D) and transfer (RADA)
Value chain development & alignment
SRC – mainstreaming local cottage industry products
Rationalized School Feeding Programme to drive product diversification
Improved Access to Financing
Redirect incremental revenues from rationalization of discretionary waivers to concessionary financing incl. lease financing for retooling and equity financing.
Market Stabilization
Rationalized SFP as buffer
AGRO Parks concept to facilitate equity participation in value chain by primary producer
Exploit Economies of Scale
Promote competitive-scale investments in livestock
Promote intercropping of corn and pulses with sugar cane
Reduced barriers to entry for youth
Promote ‘share-farming’

29. References
Arias Segura, J The Contribution of Agriculture to Sustainable Development in Jamaica. IICA Azevedo, P.F., Chaddad, F.R. and Farina, E The Food Industry in Brazil and the United States: The Effects of the FTAA on Trade and Investment. IADB, INTAL-ITD (Pub.) Duffus, B.G. and Jennings, P.G The Current State of the Jamaican Cattle Sector. Available at Holness, J.A Challenges Facing The Dairy Sector and Jamaica’s Efforts to Overcome Them. FAO/CARDI Workshop/Seminar for CARICOM’s Regional Chief Livestock Officers, Kingston, Jamaica, 8-10 April, 2013 IDB/FAO, JAMAICA: Agricultural Sector Support Analysis. Synthesis.
Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica

30. References…contd
Jamaica Dairy Development Board Medium Term Policy Framework for the Cattle Sector. Available at Jennings, P.G Report on Visit to the Dominican Republic, July 10-17, Available at Jennings, P.G., Stair, M.A. and Lindsay, J.I Going for Growth: A Policy Perspective on Positioning Domestic Agriculture as a Key Driver of Economic Growth in Jamaica. Unpublished policy proposal. Logan, R.S Quantification of the Depletion of Small Farmers’ Cattle Inventory Asset Due To the Decline in the Cattle Industry in North-East Jamaica. MSc. Thesis, UWI, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago. Lucas, C Status of the Livestock Industry in Barbados, FAO/CARDI Regional Livestock Workshop/Seminar, Kgn., Ja
Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica

31. References…contd.
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, New Zealand Contribution of the Land-Based Primary Industries to New Zealand’s Economic Growth. www. O’Connor-Dennie, T Animal Genetic Resources Management: Opportunities for the Caribbean. FAO/CARDI Workshop/Seminar for CARICOM’s Regional Chief Livestock Officers, Kingston, Jamaica, 8-10 April, 2013 Thomas, G. & M. Hunte Barbados: Country Report on the State of Animal Genetic Resources , MARD Trevor Hamilton and Associates Jamaican Pig Population Census. JSIF/MAF
Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica

32. Source: Robert Frost, 1915 , “The Road Not Taken”
Postscript
I shall be telling this with a sigh Somewhere ages and ages hence: Two roads diverged in a wood, and I, I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference.
Source: Robert Frost, 1915 , “The Road Not Taken”