Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

(D)Evolution of the Livestock Industry in Jamaica

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "(D)Evolution of the Livestock Industry in Jamaica"— Presentation transcript:

1 (D)Evolution of the Livestock Industry in Jamaica
The Road to Sustainable Development Shunned P.G. Jennings MARJEN Consulting Group Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica, May 30, 2013

2 Main Premises At more than 40% of the value of domestic food production, Livestock Development remains a significant component of Jamaica’s agricultural economy; Actualization of the potential contribution of the sector to national development has been severely abridged by enigmatic public policy choices characterized largely by state withdrawal since 1992; The alternative path of state activism chosen contemporaneously by the Dom. Rep. and the contrasting results, suggest the need for a revamping of domestic policy to maximally exploit available animal genetic, land and knowledge resources. Untapped domestic capital resources are available.

3 Fig. 1 Jamaica's External Trade 1990- 2012 (US$'000)
1. Appreciation needed by the populace of the direct causal relationship between the trade deficit and the fiscal deficit.

4 Table 1. Value (US$M) of Food and Fuel Imports 2008-2012
Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (Jan-Nov) Total Imports (A) 8162.9 5057.6 5536.4 6614.8 6151.2 Food (B) 885.08 801.87 812.92 938.40 873.0 Animal & Veg. Oils (C) 53.95 33.86 32.64 58.60 50.65 [(B + C)/A] - Food 0.115 0.165 0.153 0.151 0.150 Mineral Fuels (D) 2313.9 D/A - Fuel 0.386 0.281 0.305 0.369 0.376 (B+C+D)/A 0.501 0.446 0.458 0.520 0.526 Food imports (2011) = 15% total imports 2. Livestock imports 2011 – US$245.5M equivalent to 24.6% of food imports

5 Profile of Jamaican Agriculture
Land Allocated ,810ha* Active Farmland ,727 Crops ,524 Pasture - 48,203 Export Crops ,554 Domestic Food Crops - 86,402 No. Farms ,683 Source: STATIN,Census of Agriculture 2007: Preliminary Rep

6 Table 2. Volume and Value of Pimary Food Production in Jamaica - 2012
Food Type Area Reaped (ha)1 Volume (MT) Nominal Value at Farm gate – J$M Legumes 4,378 5,261 1,110.8 Vegetables 14,324 224,131 19,376.2 Condiments 3,779 46,854 7,816.2 Fruits 2,532 45,023 4,137.9 Starches 18,842 287,657 26,528.9 Miscellaneous 750 1,213 202.2 Total Food Crops 44,606 610,138 59,172.1 Livestock 55,0742 154,8443 41,086.6 Grand Total 99,680 764,982 100,258.7 Sources: 1. MAF Data Bank; 2. Census of Agriculture 2007, STATIN; 3. Includes 2011 fish data (2012 –n.a.)

7 Table 3. Livestock Production 2012 vs.1992 (Metric Tons)
2012/1992 Beef 18,201 5,800 0.32 Pork 5,930 9,490 1.60 Goats/Sheep 640 1,126 1.76 Poultry Meat 52,470 102,167 1.95 Fish 10,260 15,3081 1.49 Milk 38,800 12,800 0.33 Eggs (Units) 114.2 M 170.2M Total (tons) 131,739 154,796 1.175 Per capita contribution (kg)2 54.36 57.1 - data; 2. Population: 2.423M (1992); (2012) PSE to poultry sector averaged J$14.1 billion between – 79 % of total PSE to agriculture (IDB/FAO, 2011). These effectively represent transfers from the consumer by way of 270% tariff on imported poultry meat. Contrastingly duty waivers to agricultural imports totalled J$2.03 billion between Jan 2010 and March Waivers to beef (Jan – March 2011) – $712 million – 60% of 2011 waivers Population: 1992 – M; 2012 – 2.711M

8 Table 4. Imports of Livestock Products (MT) - 1992 vs. 2011
2011/1992 2011 Value –(US$’000) Beef 9,061 36,902 4.07 39,142 Pork 1,449 3,282 2.27 9,806 Goats/Sheep 933 3,384 3.63 17,350 Poultry Meat 27,200 41,339 1.52 34,100 Fish 12,549 27,215 2.17 104,165 Dairy 10,877 12,113 1.11 50,846 Total 62,069 124,235 2.00 255,409

9 Fig. 2. Levels of Self-Sufficiency: 2011 vs. 1992
Courtesy of Dr. Tanika O’Connor-Dennie

10 Table 6. Livestock: Indicative Self Sufficiency Rates – 2011 vs. 1992
Product 1992 2011 Consumption (MT) Self-sufficiency (%) Beef 27,271 66.8 42,523 13.2 Pork 7379 80.4 10,392 68.4 Goats/Sheep 1573 40.7 4,723 28.3 Poultry Meat 79,760 65.9 142,865 71.1 Fish 12,549 45.0 36.0 Eggs1 5,438 (100) 6,550 100 Milk2 125,816 31.0 95,952 13.0 Total 269,960 48.8 345,529 43.4 Standard Eggs = 1kg (whole liquid egg) 2. Fluid equivalents 2012 Import data unavailable.

11 Impact of Public Policy on Differential Performance of Cattle and Poultry Sectors
Poultry Sector: accounted for 79% Producer Support Equivalents (implicit subsidies) to domestic agriculture (IDB/FAO, 2011). Average PSE (poultry sector) – J$14.1 billion p.a. – represents effectively transfers from consumer to producer through 270% tariff on imports. Equivalent to 34% of farm gate value of total domestic production of livestock. Beef: Duty waivers on beef imports (Feb – March 2011) – J$712 million or 60% of total agricultural waivers for calendar 2011 (Jennings et al 2013). Dairy: A waiver of duty on imported SMP for direct consumption has remained in effect since 1991. 1. The policies present an enigmatic approach to food security given the near total dependence of the poultry sector on imported inputs vis-à-vis the innate ability of ruminant livestock to achieve commercially acceptable levels of output on indigenous feed sources. Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica

12 Table 7. Comparative Impact of Tariff Regime Change: Ja. vs. B’dos
Jamaica Barbados Self-Sufficiency Rate Tariff Rate since 1995 Change Self- Sufficiency 2012(%) Rate Rate Since 1995 2012(%)2 Beef 66.8 40 -80.2 42.2 30 -82.9 Dairy 31.0 40-50 -58.1 79.7 141 -12.0 Poultry Meat 65.9 270 +7.9 87.8 184 +1.7 Pork 80.4 -14.9 69.0 -27.5 Sheep & Goat 40.7 -30.5 3.2 +115.6 Thomas, G. & M. Hunte (2005) Barbados: Country Report on the State of Animal Genetic Resources , MARD Lucas, C. (2013) Status of the Livestock Industry in Barbados, FAO/CARDI Livestock Conf., Kgn B’dos apparently applied some logic to selection of commodities for protection related to level of self-sufficiency upon accession to WTO in 1995. This provided some cushioning for dairy, poultry and pork Application of the CET to all except poultry in Jamaica – predictable negative impact on beef, dairy and small ruminants. Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica

13 Table 8. What if ? - Implied Domestic Livestock Production in 2012 at 1992 Self Sufficiency Rates
Consumed – 2011 (MT) Self – Suff. 1992 Output 2012 Diff Farm Gate Value Diff. (J$M) Actual What if? Beef 42,523 66.8 5,800 28,405 -22,605 -7,957 Pork 10,392 80.4 9,490 8,355 +1,135 +308.7 Small Rum. 4,723 40.7 1,126 1,922 -796 -310.4 Poultry 142,865 65.9 102,167 94,148 +8,019 +2,005 Fish 45.0 15,308 19,135 -3827 -2,026 Eggs 6,550 100 8,104 +1,554 +543.9 Milk 95,952 31.0 12,850 29,745 -16,895 -1,047 Total 345,529 48.8 154,845 188,260 -33,415 -8,483 What if = 1.26 X actual FX equivalent (April 2013) or foregone Farm Gate Revenue = US$85M At value-added multiplier of 3:1 foregone GPD = US$340M

14 Table 9. Indicative Per Capita Consumption of Livestock Products - 2011
Protein Content (%) Consumption Total (MT) Per capita1 (Kg/Yr) Protein per Capita (grams/day) Local Beef 21 42,523 15.7 9.03 1.19 Pork 10,392 3.84 2.21 1.51 Goats/Sheep 4,723 1.75 1.00 0.28 Poultry Meat 142,865 52.8 30.4 21.61 Fish 19 8.17 2.94 Eggs 13 6,550 2.42 0.86 Dairy 3 95,952 35.5 2.92 0.38 - 345,529 127.7 50.192 28.77 1. Average Jamaican population ,706,452, STATIN; 2. RDA – Adult male 52-56g 57% of animal protein supply from domestic production – high level of vulnerability Total per capita intake of protein inc. plant animal sources – 77g/day (FAOSTAT, 2009)

15 Table 10. Demographic Changes in the Livestock Industry – 1990 vs. 2012
Sub- Sector 19901 Current Total Popn. Mature Females No. Farms Land Area (ha) Beef/ Dual 154,978 63,701 22,133 63,320 66,5002 30,100 3,964 26,800 Dairy 22,338 11,780 753 12,4153 6,295 86 5,1942 Sheep 3,141 1,452 200 5,839 7,2554 ? 454 9,924 Goats 193,825 82,157 26,843 482,3454 60,315 Pork 102,5635 12,765 14,611 - 145,0006 21,411 6556 4,9094 Poultry n/a 6,008,5627 765,9598 19,277 6,810 Sources: Livestock Census 1990, Min Ag. Duffus and Jennings 2005 (Available at Holness, Jasmin (2013) - FAO/CARDI Workshop/Seminar for CARICOM’s Regional Chief Livestock Officers , Kingston, Jamaica, 8-10 April, 2013 STATIN 2007 Census of Agriculture. Prelim. MinAg 1988 Pig Survey Hamilton and Associates (2012) Broilers; 8. Layers Goats - At 1990 ratio of mature does to total herd; current no. breeding does is estimated at 204,514 Even at 1992 indicative productivity levels, current output should exceed 1.56 million kg cf This suggests a 28% decline in productivity which is inconsistent with the observed impact of the influx of exotic breeds on growth and carcass characteristics. W.r.t cattle the decline of 39,086 head of breeding females represents an invaluable loss of animal genetic resources. Among the beef herd, app 14% of animals were classified as purebred cattle of the three Jamaican beef cattle breeds (Duffus and Jennings, 2005). W.r.t dairy 85.5% of animals were of Jamaica Hope ancestry W.r.t employment levels, 2005 study (Duffus and Jennings) reported a loss of 13,800 jobs as a result of the attrition in the cattle sector between 1990 and 2004. Wealth depletion as a result of herd liquidation (Logan 2004) – 3 easternmost parishes + US$14million.

16 Table 11. Quantifiable Socio-Economic Impact of Attrition in Cattle Sector
Parameter Impact Source Breeding Females: (1992 – 2004) -36,027 Duffus & Jennings (2005) Beef -33,129 Dairy -2,898 Estimated replacement value @ current prices($90K) J$3.243B No. Farms -16669(B); -529 (D) No. Hired Hands -13,800 Wealth Stock 1 ( ) -US$14M Logan (2004) Contribution to per capita consumption animal protein 16.0 – 3.3% (1992 – 2011 Jennings et al. (2013) 1. Small cattle farmers in the three easternmost parishes – Average cattle inventories reduced from 5 to 2.

17 Table 12. Resource Requirements for Foregone Domestic Production
Output Deficit (MT) Investment Cost (US$’M) Breeding Females Req. Land Required (ha) Labour (Man Years) Import Cost 2011 (US$’M)) Beef 22,605 201.77 89,4351 71,700 1195 39.14 Sheep& Goat 796 2.533 30,170 1810 180 17.35 Fish 3,827 12.38 - 240 80 104.17 Milk 16,895 12.00 7,2402 1420 70 50.85 Total 44,123 228.68 75,170 1525 211.51 Assumptions: 1. Output/cow = 250Kg/yr (160 –weaner; 90 – 20% cull); 2. Culls (20%) = 170kg/cull Data speaks to opportunity cost 2011 Import Expenditure represents 92.5% of CAPINVEST required for restoring 1992 self-sufficiency rates. W.r.t fish, realized levels of productivity on medium and large aquaculture units in Jamaica of 16-45t/ ha suggests the need for priority to be given to revitalizing the local aquaculture industry as a cost-effective contributor to domestic protein requirements

18 Fig. 3. The Imperative of Increased Domestic Food Production - Producer Price Indices – USA Source: FAOSTAT

19 Table 13. Technical Feasibility of Accelerated Milk and Beef Production
Year Beef Herd Dairy Herd Total Slaughter Beef Prod (kg.106) Milk Breeding Females No. 2009 31,500 22,050 7,500 5,625 27,675 5.82 14.5 2010 35,100 24,580 8,620 6,460 31,040 6.52 16.8 2011 39,300 27,500 9,920 7,440 34,940 7.34 19.5 2012 44,000 30,800 11,400 8,550 39,350 8.26 22.7 2013 49,530 34,500 13,120 9,840 44,340 9.31 26.4 2014 55,250 38,670 15,100 11,325 49,995 10.50 30.4 2020 82,900 58,030 27,100 20,700 78,730 15.80 56.9 Source: JDDB (2009) Medium Term Policy Framework for the Cattle Sector Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica

20 Table 14. Comparison of Projected 2020 Yields vs
Table 14. Comparison of Projected 2020 Yields vs. Self-Sufficiency Targets Target Production Projected Output Variance (Projected/Target) Beef: Breeding Herd 89,435 82,900 -0.07 Production (kg.106) 22.60 15.80 -0.30 Milk: 7,240 27,100 +2.74 16.91 56.92 +2.37 Assumptions: Yield – 3600L/cow/yr Yield L/cow/yr Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica

21 ‘A Tale of Two Cities’

22 Table 15. ‘A Tale of Two Cities’…contd.
Jamaica Dominican Republic 1992 2009 Milk Production (L.106) 38.8 13.2 364.5 595.8 % Self-sufficiency 36.0 17.4 63.0 87.5 Beef Production (kg.106) 18.2 5.4 83.0 101.8 %Self Sufficiency 85.9 43.7 100 99.0 Pork Production (kg.106) 5.9 9.0 43 85 86.0 81.8 84.2 Poultry Meat Production (kg.106) 52.5 106.7 122.0 322.8 65.8 78.6 97.3 Total Protein/Capita (g/d) 68.2 76.9 47.5 58.7 Animal protein/ Capita (g/d)2 32.2 38.2 21.4 28.0 Debt: GDP Dec 20121 145.8 45.71 Per Capita Nominal GDP 5541(93) 5763(89) Source: FAOSTAT RDA – Adult 46 (F), (M); 3. IMF data Growth in Per capita supply of animal protein: Ja – 18.6%; Dom Rep – 30.8% Growth in total per capita protein supply: Ja. – 12.8%; Dom Rep. – 23.6% D.R. also 100% self-sufficient in rice production.

23 Table 16. Policy and Other Key Differences
Jamaica Dom. Rep. Comments Accession to WTO 1995 Ja. actually liberalized 1991/1992 Tariff Regime Straight tariffication – 100% bound rate Tariff Rate Quota – linked to utilization of local products Ja. may exercise option of switching to TRQ with WTO approval Food Security Strategy Implicit import dependence Food Sovereignty Right to food Right to livelihood State Market Support ? State procurement via SFP School Milk program – integral to dairy dev in D.R. Public Support to Enhanced Competitiveness Inconsistent and diffused state support to R&D Consistent, focused state R&D MEGALECHE (State) & CONALECHE (Stakeholders) dedicated to dairy development Industry Structure High level of attrition among small & medium farmers Small farmer cooperatives very active Small farmer contributes 40% of output in DR. Milk mainly to cottage cheeses People No Problem Mon! Muy Caliente! Hay problema!

24 Table 17. Economic Contribution of the Agri-Food Sectors – Selected Countries
Country %GDP Labour (%) Source Primary Agric Agri-Food Sector United States (2004) 0.8 8.1 12.0 Azevedo et al (2004) Canada 1.3 13.0 New Zealand (2001) 5.2 20.0 10.9 MAF (2003) Brazil 7.8 26.3 21.0 Azevedo et al (2004 Jamaica (2010) 5.1 9.9 Arias Segura, J.A. (2010) GDP multiplier – supplier countries – 4.1 GDP multiplier – Jamaica – 1.94

25 Table 18. Contribution of Beef and Dairy Sectors to Primary Agric GDP – 20071.
Country Primary Agric Primary Beef and Dairy Value(US$.106) 2. %GDP Value (US$.106) %Agric GDP Australia 12,127 2.4 5,331 44.0 Brazil 42,488 5.2 12,707 29.9 India 123,090 16.0 28,360 23.0 New Zealand 4,827 7.7 4,570 94.6 United Kingdom 14,209 0.8 6,771 47.6 United States 123,200 1.1 52,916 43.0 Dom. Rep 2,027 5.9 511 25.2 Jamaica 543 5.3 62 11.4 1.Calculated from FAO Statistical Yearbook 2009 2. Constant 2000 US$

26 Contribution of Beef and Dairy Sectors to Primary Agric GDP – 20071
Contribution of Beef and Dairy Sectors to Primary Agric GDP – …contd. Divergence between developed and developing countries in contribution of cattle sector to Agric GDP provides a clear ‘index of development’. For the developed (4) = 57.3% For the developing (4) = 22.4% The correlation is by no means spurious as beef and milk consumption are indexed to increasing affluence.

27 Required Strategic Actions
‘Going for Growth’ – Recommended Policy Approaches (From: Jennings et al, 2013) Policy Objective Strategic Goals Required Strategic Actions Expanded Domestic Food production as Driver of Economic Growth Sustainable food and nutrition security via import substitution. Target food crops and livestock – largest contribution to protein and energy nutrition. Incd. Wealth creation for primary producers. Implement equitable land-leasing policy Expanded and sustainable livelihood opportunities Market expansion via mfg., tourism, School Feeding Prog., Mitigate negative impact of trade distorting actions – local & int’l. Implement TRQ regime for targeted commodities Rationalization of ‘discretionary waivers’ and redirect revenues to development Value Chain Development TRQ to promote incd. Use of local food by food processing and tourism sectors Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica

28 Recommended Policy Approaches…contd.
Policy Objective Strategic Goals Required Strategic Actions Enhanced International Competitiveness Matching commodity enterprise to land capability Deliberate zoning of de novo investments on state lands with irrigation infrastructure Improved production efficiency Focused technology generation (R&D) and transfer (RADA) Value chain development & alignment SRC – mainstreaming local cottage industry products Rationalized School Feeding Programme to drive product diversification Improved Access to Financing Redirect incremental revenues from rationalization of discretionary waivers to concessionary financing incl. lease financing for retooling and equity financing. Market Stabilization Rationalized SFP as buffer AGRO Parks concept to facilitate equity participation in value chain by primary producer Exploit Economies of Scale Promote competitive-scale investments in livestock Promote intercropping of corn and pulses with sugar cane Reduced barriers to entry for youth Promote ‘share-farming’

29 References Arias Segura, J The Contribution of Agriculture to Sustainable Development in Jamaica. IICA Azevedo, P.F., Chaddad, F.R. and Farina, E The Food Industry in Brazil and the United States: The Effects of the FTAA on Trade and Investment. IADB, INTAL-ITD (Pub.) Duffus, B.G. and Jennings, P.G The Current State of the Jamaican Cattle Sector. Available at Holness, J.A Challenges Facing The Dairy Sector and Jamaica’s Efforts to Overcome Them. FAO/CARDI Workshop/Seminar for CARICOM’s Regional Chief Livestock Officers, Kingston, Jamaica, 8-10 April, 2013 IDB/FAO, JAMAICA: Agricultural Sector Support Analysis. Synthesis. Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica

30 References…contd Jamaica Dairy Development Board Medium Term Policy Framework for the Cattle Sector. Available at Jennings, P.G Report on Visit to the Dominican Republic, July 10-17, Available at Jennings, P.G., Stair, M.A. and Lindsay, J.I Going for Growth: A Policy Perspective on Positioning Domestic Agriculture as a Key Driver of Economic Growth in Jamaica. Unpublished policy proposal. Logan, R.S Quantification of the Depletion of Small Farmers’ Cattle Inventory Asset Due To the Decline in the Cattle Industry in North-East Jamaica. MSc. Thesis, UWI, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago. Lucas, C Status of the Livestock Industry in Barbados, FAO/CARDI Regional Livestock Workshop/Seminar, Kgn., Ja Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica

31 References…contd. Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, New Zealand Contribution of the Land-Based Primary Industries to New Zealand’s Economic Growth. www. O’Connor-Dennie, T Animal Genetic Resources Management: Opportunities for the Caribbean. FAO/CARDI Workshop/Seminar for CARICOM’s Regional Chief Livestock Officers, Kingston, Jamaica, 8-10 April, 2013 Thomas, G. & M. Hunte Barbados: Country Report on the State of Animal Genetic Resources , MARD Trevor Hamilton and Associates Jamaican Pig Population Census. JSIF/MAF Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica

32 Source: Robert Frost, 1915 , “The Road Not Taken”
Postscript I shall be telling this with a sigh Somewhere ages and ages hence: Two roads diverged in a wood, and I, I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference. Source: Robert Frost, 1915 , “The Road Not Taken”


Download ppt "(D)Evolution of the Livestock Industry in Jamaica"

Similar presentations


Ads by Google