1. Revisiting Mantle’s Griffith Stadium Home Run, April 17, 1953 A Case Study in Forensic Physics Alan M. Nathan

2. Lots has been written….
Good introduction to the cast of characters and the story:
Mickey Mantle
Donald Dunaway
434 Oakdale Pl.
Red Patterson

3. Griffith Stadium, ca. 1960 Mickey Mantle Donald Dunaway
434 Oakdale Pl.
Red Patterson

5. Baseball historian Bill Jenkinson
no more than 515 ft. and probably 10 ft less

6. Baseball Physicist Bob Adair
Page 103:
“…a more precise calculation gives… 506 ft, with an uncertainy … no more than 5 ft”

7. (includes my analysis)
Chapter 6: One Big Day
(includes my analysis)
Due out October 2010

8. Sanborn Map of Area
434 Oakdale
565 ft
460 ft

9. What We Know (at least approximately)
Ball hit glancing blow on sign and exited the stadium
460 ft horizontal ft from home plate
50-60 ft above ground level
Donald Dunaway retrieved ball behind row houses that face 5th St. NW
at a distance of ~565 ft from home plate
Wind was blowing out steadily at ~20 mph
with gusts up to 40 mph

10. What We Don’t Know Batted ball parameters
speed, launch angle, and spin
How long it took batted ball to reach sign
Precise wind speed and direction at time of hit
Precise height where ball hit sign

11. The Big Questions:
Is there a plausible set of conditions consistent with the known facts?
Answer: yes, as we shall see
Given all the uncertainties, what constraints can we place on the distance the ball would have carried unobstructed?
I’ll tell you later

12. How to Constrain the Trajectory?
Ball hit beer sign
460 horizontal and 60 vertical ft. from home plate
Not enough to determine landing point
Different combinations of batted ball speed (BBS) and vertical launch angle (VLA) will hit the sign
Ambiguity nearly removed by knowing flight time (T)
Technique used by hittrackeronline.com
But we don’t know any of those things

13. An Example

15. We have a dilemma… Need more info to remove ambiguity
e.g, BBS, VLA, T, …
An aside: I don’t know how previous analyses avoided this dilemma
But we have one additional piece of information…
Ball was retrieved behind row houses
…a fact seemingly ignored in previous analyses
…and one leading to considerably longer distance

16. ..but not ignored in compempory accounts From Louis Effrat, NYT April 19, 1953
Louis Effrat. "Mantle Homer Hit Into Hall of Fame; Cooperstown Shrine Will Get Ball and Bat Used by Yanks in Wallop at Capital.” New York Times. 19 April 1953, p. S1.

17. Dunaway says he retrieved the ball behind the houses facing 5th St.
Nearest house 512 ft from home plate with roof 22 ft high (thanks to Jane Leavy for that info)

18. 5th St NW
beer sign
434 Oakdale

19. Sanborn Map of Area
512 ft
434 Oakdale
460 ft

20. nearest house

21. Some Preliminary Conclusions
Analysis shows hitting 5th St. and bouncing onto or over roof not a credible option
Ball hitting roof constrains the trajectory:
VLA < 310
BBS > 113 mph
Distance > 535 ft (!)

22. Further Observations Lower limit = 535 ft
If ball “just hits root”, then we can place an upper limit of 542 ft
Therefore, distance is in range ft
BBS ~ 113 mph VLA ~ 310 60 22
460
512
542

23. Summary Distance = 535-542 ft Is this result credible?
BBS ~ 113 mph VLA ~ 310
Result insensitive to poorly know details
precise wind speed
spin on ball …
Is this result credible?
Yes: it is nearly identical to a home run hit in 2009

24. Wladimir Balentien Home Run October 2, 2009
Greg Rybarczyk (hittracker) provides landing point and flight time
Sportvision (hitf/x) provides BBS and VLA
Together, these constrain the full trajectory

25. Balentien vs. Mantle very similar trajectories! Balentien Mantle
BBS mph mph
VLA
D ft ft
H 62 ft ft
Wind 15 mph* 20 mph
Distance 517 ft* ft
very similar trajectories!
* My analysis using hittrracker and hitf/x

26. Balentien vs. Mantle

27. Final Remarks A plausible scenario for the HR exists
Distance is significantly longer than previously thought ft
But certainly not 565 ft
And it was aided considerably by the wind
460 ft w/o the wind
which is still a very long drive
Thanks to Jane Leavy for a very enjoyable collaboration!

28. Thanks for your attention! Questions & Comments:
go.illinois.edu/physicsofbaseball