1. Presentation European Society Historical Demography
“The history of cohabitation in Mexico, ” Leuven (B), 31/8 – 3/
Ron Lesthaeghe (Vrije Universiteit Brussel )
Albert Esteve (Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics)
Julieta Quilodrán (Colegio de México)
Antonio López-Gay (Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics)
Julián López-Colás (Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics)

2. Overview
Data: IPUMS individual census records, all censuses from
Part of large project with highest levels of geographical detail for most countries, from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego, hence multilevel analyses (2 levels: individual+region/municipalities).
Just published:
ESTEVE, A.; R. LESTHAEGHE, R. (eds), 2016: Marriage and Cohabitation in the Americas: Historical Legacies and Recent Trends, Springer Verlag.
Mexican analysis:
Historical overview possible thanks to the 1930 census records for most states and native groups.
Here: data for indigenous groups, states, municipalities, education groups and cohorts Detailed multilevel analysis thanks to information for municipalities for last three censuses (1990, 2000, 2010).
The history of cohabitation in Mexico,
31/8- 3/9/ 2016

3. Sierra Madre Occidental Sierra Nayar Llanura Costal Golfo
Syst. Volc. Central
Yucatan
Sierra Madre Sur
Sierra Chiapas
Golfo
Tehuantepec
The history of cohabitation in Mexico,
31/8- 3/9/ 2016

4. % share cohabitation among women in union, Mexican indigenous populations, 1930-2010
HIGH:
SMOc Sierra Madre Occidental
SNA Sierra de Nayar
SCH Sierra Chiapas
MIDDLE:
LCG Llanura Costera Golfo
SMSu Sierra Madre Sur
Gteh Golfo Tehuantepec
LOW:
SVC Systema Volcanico Central.
YUC Yucatan
The history of cohabitation in Mexico,
31/8- 3/9/ 2016

5. 1960 1930 1990 1980 2000 2010 Proportion cohabiting
among women in
union
1990
1980
2000
2010
The history of cohabitation in Mexico,
31/8- 3/9/ 2016

6. Proportion cohabiting among women 25-29 in union. Mexican states 1930
FIXED ORDER LOW TO HIGH AS OF 1960
*1930: 8 States no data
The history of cohabitation in Mexico,
31/8- 3/9/ 2016

7. Percentage share cohabitation among all women in a union, Mexican States 1930-2010
The history of cohabitation in Mexico,
31/8- 3/9/ 2016

8. Percentage cohabitation women 25-29 by education. 1960*-2010
Indicator in 1930
(not included
8 states without data)
Illiterate
29.38
Literate
14.03
*University 1960: sample too small probably also (few cases).
The history of cohabitation in Mexico,
31/8- 3/9/ 2016

9. Proportion cohabiting among partnered by single years at 3 censuses
Proportion cohabiting among partnered by single years at 3 censuses. Mexico
The history of cohabitation in Mexico,
31/8- 3/9/ 2016

10. Share cohabitation among women in union, by cohort, No more than primary education, Mexico
The history of cohabitation in Mexico,
31/8- 3/9/ 2016

11. Share cohabitation among women in union, by cohort, education= secondary completed, Mexico
The history of cohabitation in Mexico,
31/8- 3/9/ 2016

12. Mexican municipalities
1990
2000
Mexican municipalities
2010
The history of cohabitation in Mexico,
31/8- 3/9/ 2016

13. Proportion cohabiting among women 25-29 in union. 2010
The history of cohabitation in Mexico,
31/8- 3/9/ 2016

14. Cohabitation in Mexico 1930-2010– Conclusions:
Highly differentiated incidence of cohabitation 1930, strong indigenous contrasts.
Generally: populations with a pre-Columbian history of state formation, settled agriculture, castes, marriage rituals in Central Mexico and Yucatan had LOW levels of cohabitation in the 1930 census. Highest levels among northern nomadic population and Chiapas ethnic groups (consistent with Goody-Borerup hypothesis).
Decline of cohabitation till 1990 census (until cohort of ), followed by major UNIVERSAL increase. Phase 1: increasing pro-marriage, expansion state/church control and “embourgeoisement” (European dominant cultural model); Phase 2: reversal, and catching up among higher social strata (SDT consistent).
Classic cross-sectional profiles persist at individual level; also cross-sectional historical factors at municipal level are significant (e.g. secularization level (+), incidence Protestantism (-), ethic traditions (+), poverty levels (+)). Pattern of disadvantage highly visible, in addition to other historical/cultural determinants.
Overarching positive trend from the 1990s onward, upward evolution continues. Other SDT features to be expected (longer cohabitation spells, rise extra-marital fertility among older women, postponement of first births upper strata). But effects of pattern of disadvantage likely to remain (e.g. high teenage fertility).
The history of cohabitation in Mexico,
31/8- 3/9/ 2016

15. research funded by WORLDFAM ERC-2009-StG-240978
Thank you.
Ron Lesthaeghe
Albert Esteve
Julieta Quilodrán
Antonio López-Gay
Julián López-Colás
research funded by WORLDFAM ERC-2009-StG
137 : Cohabitation Across the Americas
April/01/2016

16. research funded by WORLDFAM ERC-2009-StG-240978
Supplementary slides useful for discussion part
research funded by WORLDFAM ERC-2009-StG
137 : Cohabitation Across the Americas
April/01/2016

17. Estimated odds ratios of cohabiting as opposed to being married for Mexican women in a union, results for individual level variables, Mexico 2000 and 2010
Notes: All the coefficients are statistically significant at p<0.001 except *: p<0.05 and **: p<0.01
The initial variance between municipalities in the zero models without covariates was 1.06 in 2000 and 0.65 in 2010

18. Estimated odds ratios from a multilevel logistic regression model of unmarried cohabitation by contextual characteristics at the municipality, women in a union, Mexico 2000 and 2010 (complete model)
Notes: All the coefficients are statistically significant at p<0.001 except *: p<0.05 and **: p<0.01
The Remaining variance municipalities in 2000 is 1.06* in the empty model, and 1.10* after controlling for the individual variables (see Model 2). The same values in 2010 are: 0.65 and 0.66 respectively

19. MÉXICO. Estados o Entidades Federales
Aguascalientes
The history of cohabitation in Mexico,
31/8- 3/9/ 2016

20. Percent cohabiting among partnered women age 25-29 in Mexican states, 1930-2010
* States without data not included in total.
Source: Author’s tabulations based on census samples from IPUMS-International
and INEGI

21. research funded by WORLDFAM ERC-2009-StG-240978
Thank you.
Ron Lesthaeghe
Albert Esteve
Julieta Quilodrán
Antonio López-Gay
Julián López-Colás
research funded by WORLDFAM ERC-2009-StG
137 : Cohabitation Across the Americas
April/01/2016